Recommitted Sam Reid [re-signed]

[TerryWallet]

His 6 goal game is such an enormous outlier when you look at his year, his second best is 3 goals which he's had twice, goalless on 4 occasions.
In fact it's an outlier when you look at his 113 game career only 2 other times has he kicked more than 3 goals, 6 against the lions in 2012 and 4 against carlton in 2014. Take that 6 goal anomaly out and he's 16 goals from 14 games add in some injury concerns and I can't see how he's worth a first rounder.

Yesterday i was looking at the output of Levi Casboult and Tyrone Vickery to find a comparison between them. While doing this, i also decided to see how their output compared to other similar types. So i looked at Sam Reid, Jesse White and Cam Pederson.

What i found was that Sam Reid's career output is no better than Vickery, Casboult, Jesse White and Cam Pederson.

They are all worth minimum chips, or very slightly over minimum chips if your team is absolutely desperate.

 

[Apex36]

Yesterday i was looking at the output of Levi Casboult and Tyrone Vickery to find a comparison between them. While doing this, i also decided to see how their output compared to other similar types. So i looked at Sam Reid, Jesse White and Cam Pederson.

What i found was that Sam Reid's career output is no better than Vickery, Casboult, Jesse White and Cam Pederson.

They are all worth minimum chips, or very slightly over minimum chips if your team is absolutely desperate.

You need to take in to account that Reid's output in terms of goal scoring has been diluted significantly by the time he's spent playing as a defender.

Despite that though, Sydney fans seem to be significantly over valuing Reid's trade worth.

 

[Tedeski]

You need to take in to account that Reid's output in terms of goal scoring has been diluted significantly by the time he's spent playing as a defender.

Despite that though, Sydney fans seem to be significantly over valuing Reid's trade worth.

How much do you think the Pies have to pay him to get him?

 

[Apex36]

How much do you think the Pies have to pay him to get him?

As a trade? Nothing. It will be as a free agent or not at all imo.

 

[Tedeski]

As a trade? Nothing. It will be as a free agent or not at all imo.

My question was how much would you have to pay him, not what would we get. Sam Reid will only leave if it is significantly more than we are prepared to pay him. Now he is just coming off 5 years at 500K per season. Fair to say that is our offer to him max. He has stated he wishes to stay as did Tom, Mitchell last season & Tom ended up leaving for supposedly 700K per season at the Hawks.
Now 700K should get him. Do you think Sam Reid is worth that?

 

[Apex36]

My question was how much would you have to pay him, not what would we get. Sam Reid will only leave if it is significantly more than we are prepared to pay him. Now he is just coming off 5 years at 500K per season. Fair to say that is our offer to him max. He has stated he wishes to stay as did Tom, Mitchell last season & Tom ended up leaving for supposedly 700K per season at the Hawks.
Now 700K should get him. Do you think Sam Reid is worth that?

I'd be more comfortable around $600k than $700k. Hard to gauge what's going to be excessive with the new CBA. Certainly wouldn't expect us to be offering some of the ludicrous numbers like $800k+ that some posters and media have thrown around.

 

[Tedeski]

I'd be more comfortable around $600k than $700k. Hard to gauge what's going to be excessive with the new CBA. Certainly wouldn't expect us to be offering some of the ludicrous numbers like $800k+ that some posters and media have thrown around.

You would think that for 600K you would need to give him 5 years to make it worthwhile for him to move. Now that is a huge risk with an injury prone Reid, who once again is going to miss & probably be restricted for the rest of the season with a groin injury, which normally doesn't go away in a hurry.
So if we are offering Sam 3 years at 500K, that's half of what he may get to go to the Pies but you take all the risk & for Sam, history has shown that the pressure will all go on him should it go pear shaped & he doesn't perform or can't stay fit.

These are the things that our club would be considering when offering Sam a contract. We generally haven't been a club prepared to pay overs to a player that has been coached in our system from when drafted if his output doesn't warrant it. Sam's recent history says he can't stay on the park of late & in our system, though much loved by the coaches, he will have to move on in order to see 600-800K per season & I have no doubt that our club would tell him he would be mad not to take it if it was money driving him.
Time will tell.

 

[Teddy chester]

You would think that for 600K you would need to give him 5 years to make it worthwhile for him to move. Now that is a huge risk with an injury prone Reid, who once again is going to miss & probably be restricted for the rest of the season with a groin injury, which normally doesn't go away in a hurry.
So if we are offering Sam 3 years at 500K, that's half of what he may get to go to the Pies but you take all the risk & for Sam, history has shown that the pressure will all go on him should it go pear shaped & he doesn't perform or can't stay fit.

These are the things that our club would be considering when offering Sam a contract. We generally haven't been a club prepared to pay overs to a player that has been coached in our system from when drafted if his output doesn't warrant it. Sam's recent history says he can't stay on the park of late & in our system, though much loved by the coaches, he will have to move on in order to see 600-800K per season & I have no doubt that our club would tell him he would be mad not to take it if it was money driving him.
Time will tell.

Swans would definitely have a five year deal on the table. People who only look at goal kicking just don't understand what he brings to the team

 

[Apex36]

You would think that for 600K you would need to give him 5 years to make it worthwhile for him to move. Now that is a huge risk with an injury prone Reid, who once again is going to miss & probably be restricted for the rest of the season with a groin injury, which normally doesn't go away in a hurry.
So if we are offering Sam 3 years at 500K, that's half of what he may get to go to the Pies but you take all the risk & for Sam, history has shown that the pressure will all go on him should it go pear shaped & he doesn't perform or can't stay fit.

These are the things that our club would be considering when offering Sam a contract. We generally haven't been a club prepared to pay overs to a player that has been coached in our system from when drafted if his output doesn't warrant it. Sam's recent history says he can't stay on the park of late & in our system, though much loved by the coaches, he will have to move on in order to see 600-800K per season & I have no doubt that our club would tell him he would be mad not to take it if it was money driving him.
Time will tell.

I have no doubt we'll be offering him at least 4-5 years. We hand out long term contracts like they're candy these days

 

[GiantOrange]

You would think that for 600K you would need to give him 5 years to make it worthwhile for him to move. Now that is a huge risk with an injury prone Reid, who once again is going to miss & probably be restricted for the rest of the season with a groin injury, which normally doesn't go away in a hurry.
So if we are offering Sam 3 years at 500K, that's half of what he may get to go to the Pies but you take all the risk & for Sam, history has shown that the pressure will all go on him should it go pear shaped & he doesn't perform or can't stay fit.

These are the things that our club would be considering when offering Sam a contract. We generally haven't been a club prepared to pay overs to a player that has been coached in our system from when drafted if his output doesn't warrant it. Sam's recent history says he can't stay on the park of late & in our system, though much loved by the coaches, he will have to move on in order to see 600-800K per season & I have no doubt that our club would tell him he would be mad not to take it if it was money driving him.
Time will tell.

Swans would definitely have a five year deal on the table. People who only look at goal kicking just don't understand what he brings to the team

Money might not be the number one factor in Sam's decision. Maybe Sam just wants to play with his older brother and be closer to mum and dad.

 

[Tedeski]

Money might not be the number one factor in Sam's decision. Maybe Sam just wants to play with his older brother and be closer to mum and dad.

Perhaps this is very true. Time will tell

 

[anotherletdown]

If he decides he wants to go then I want end of 1st round compo. What do clubs need to offer him for that to happen? Does anyone know what that is worth with the new agreement

 

[Toadvine]

If he decides he wants to go then I want end of 1st round compo. What do clubs need to offer him for that to happen? Does anyone know what that is worth with the new agreement

Vickery is on 500k and that got 2nd round compo last year. With the new agreement (+20%) you'd need to be on 600k to warrant the same compo.

James Frawley was reportedly on 2.5mil over 4 years, which warranted round 1 compo. That works out to 625k per year in the old agreement. 625k +20% equals 750k.

(frawley contract source)
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/spo...s/news-story/597ab8a238f450c04de39a432bd1dd09

So you'd need a team to sign him on 750k plus. Not entirely out of the question but I think it's unlikely...

Edit - please forgive my dodgy maths but that's my understanding of it all

 

[anotherletdown]

Vickery is on 500k and that got 2nd round compo last year. With the new agreement (+20%) you'd need to be on 600k to warrant the same compo.

James Frawley was reportedly on 2.5mil over 4 years that warranted round 1 compo. That works out to 625k per year in the old agreement. 625k +20% equals 750k.

(frawley contract source)
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/spo...s/news-story/597ab8a238f450c04de39a432bd1dd09

So you'd need a team to sign him on 750k plus. Not entirely out of the question but I think it's unlikely...

Edit - please forgive my dodgy maths but that's my understanding of it all

You're right then. Not impossible but probably unlikely. I can't see us offering more than 650k but think it'd take 750k to get him to move. Grass isn't always greener

 

[GiantOrange]

I would say somewhere in the range of 8-12 is about right if he wants to go. The issue is that if he wants to go to Collingwood they have very little currency outside of that 1st pick

How do you come to this odd conclusion he is worth between 8-12? What has he done this year to warrant this???

 

[GiantOrange]

If he decides he wants to go then I want end of 1st round compo. What do clubs need to offer him for that to happen? Does anyone know what that is worth with the new agreement

What has he done this year to warrant a first round compo pick?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

How do you come to this odd conclusion he is worth between 8-12? What has he done this year to warrant this???

I'd be happy with anything from the 16-25 range. 8-12 is pushing it.

 

[Wayne Swan]

Sam to move to Collingwood to play with his brother Ben? That's if Ben hasn't been dropped to the VFL again!

I reckon I'd be looking to leave a well run, stable and contending club like the Swans for a club like Collingwood that is currently a shambles with a major club review taking place, no certainty who is going to coach from 2018 onwards and definitely not in contention - derrrrrr! Sam would be wanting big $ and a long contract to do that swap. Still, Pies did give VFL player Mayne 3 years @ $500k/year so Sam could get 4-5 @ $750k to make the downgrade of clubs!

 

[Wayne Swan]

What has he done this year to warrant a first round compo pick?

Got nothing to do with what he's done, it's primarily about the new contract. Vickery got two years @ $500k = 2nd rounder, Frawley 4 years @ $600k = 1st rounder.

For Reid to move it wouldn't be for moderate $ and short term, he'd want 4-5 years at least and good $, otherwise why leave a contender surrounded by high class players to go to a lesser environment and put up with dreary Melbourne winters as well?

 

[GiantOrange]

Got nothing to do with what he's done, it's primarily about the new contract. Vickery got two years @ $500k = 2nd rounder, Frawley 4 years @ $600k = 1st rounder.

For Reid to move it wouldn't be for moderate $ and short term, he'd want 4-5 years at least and good $, otherwise why leave a contender surrounded by high class players to go to a lesser environment and put up with dreary Melbourne winters as well?

Was I talking to you? Richmond and the Demon's finished on the bottom part of the ladder so they got an ok compo pick for Frawley and Vickery. You won't get a first round compo pick even if Sam decided to leave as the swan's will probably finish top four..... Checkmate derrrr!

 

[GiantOrange]

I'd be happy with anything from the 16-25 range. 8-12 is pushing it.

Most people who are realistic would think 16-25 is pushing it.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Most people who are realistic would think 16-25 is pushing it.

Always pay more for KPP. Would think a late first to a side that needs a target or an early 2nd is pretty reasonable.

 

[GiantOrange]

Always pay more for KPP. Would think a late first to a side that needs a target or an early 2nd is pretty reasonable.

Is Sam a better player than buddy? Is Sam worth more than Buddy? When Hawthorn finished on top of the ladder and Buddy wanted to join the swan's on 1million a season the Hawks only received pick 19 as compo..... Touche

 

[anotherletdown]

How do you come to this odd conclusion he is worth between 8-12? What has he done this year to warrant this???

Form isn't the only factor. He's AFL established, can kick goals, gets around the park very well for a big guy and probably has some of the strongest hands in the comp and he's still got 5+ years of footy ahead of him. He worth that to us... obviously you think he isn't to other clubs.

 

[anotherletdown]

Is Sam a better player than buddy? Is Sam worth more than Buddy? When Hawthorn finished on top of the ladder and Buddy wanted to join the swan's on 1million a season the Hawks only received pick 19 as compo..... Touche

You do understand that the positioning of the pick is totally dependent on ladder position? They got band 1.... same as Melbourne did for Frawley., it's not a fair form of compensation - the whole industry knows this. I'm hoping for band 2 and end of first round.