Roast St Kilda in no mans land

[PJays]

Saints can make as many excuses and use all the mental gymnastics they like, but if you cant score 10 goals against Hawthorn on a sunny windless day then you are absolutely ****ed.

The problem is the kicking around and around the boundary game plan. Its outdated and s**t. Gives the fwds no chance.
Saints game is high effort and no reward and the players are burnt out. Superior fitness isnt working. Its all so inefficient.

Fair points.

But arguably if Max King was playing like the Max King of 2022 and 2023, St Kilda would've won several of those close games and would be top 8 if not top 4.

He's having the worst stretch of his career.

3 goals is the pass mark for a quality spearhead these days. King achieved that 8 times in 2022, and 6 times in 10 games in 2023 (technically he played 11 but came off 20 seconds into one of them). This year he's done it once in 6 games.

The difference between King kicking 3, instead of 1 or 2, is the difference between St Kilda losing those games by a few points and winning them. The difference between St Kilda kicking 9 or 10 goals and losing, verses kicking 11 and winning.

And yes the entries haven't been great. But King should be doing more with them. And would be if he wasn't terribly out of form.

 

[carnthedons]

Fair points.

But arguably if Max King was playing like the Max King of 2022 and 2023, St Kilda would've won several of those close games and would be top 8 if not top 4.

He's having the worst stretch of his career.

3 goals is the pass mark for a quality spearhead these days. King achieved that 8 times in 2022, and 6 times in 10 games in 2023 (technically he played 11 but came off 20 seconds into one of them). This year he's done it once in 6 games.

The difference between King kicking 3, instead of 1 or 2, is the difference between St Kilda losing those games by a few points and winning them. The difference between St Kilda kicking 9 or 10 goals and losing, verses kicking 11 and winning.

And yes the entries haven't been great. But King should be doing more with them. And would be if he wasn't terribly out of form.

If my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.

3 goals can’t be the pass mark, surely, that’s a 69 (nice) goal season for the full H&A season. 3 players did that last year, none in 2022/21/20.

Aiming to kick only 11 goals to win a game is ridiculous, especially if you’re relying on Max King to kick more than a quarter of them.

 

[PJays]

If my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.

3 goals can’t be the pass mark, surely, that’s a 69 (nice) goal season for the full H&A season. 3 players did that last year, none in 2022/21/20.

Aiming to kick only 11 goals to win a game is ridiculous, especially if you’re relying on Max King to kick more than a quarter of them.

I'm not defending the game plan- I'd prefer if we were more attacking. I think the balance is too skewed towards defense.

The best example was against Port. Alliir and Powell-Pepper got injured, and one other. They only had 1 or 2 left on the bench. St Kilda should've started running and attacking but we left it too late.

I'm just saying, I don't think Lyon or the game plan can be entirely blamed for us being 3-6. Our best forward is having the worst season of his career. And in fact, our second best forward Membrey is also struggling. That's not Lyon's fault- or the game plan.

And King's kicking woes have returned. Saints fans were hopeful he'd put those issues behind him (28.12 last year) but no, this year 9.8 and a few that didn't make the distance or OOB.

 

[WillHayward]

Fair points.

But arguably if Max King was playing like the Max King of 2022 and 2023, St Kilda would've won several of those close games and would be top 8 if not top 4.

He's having the worst stretch of his career.

3 goals is the pass mark for a quality spearhead these days. King achieved that 8 times in 2022, and 6 times in 10 games in 2023 (technically he played 11 but came off 20 seconds into one of them). This year he's done it once in 6 games.

The difference between King kicking 3, instead of 1 or 2, is the difference between St Kilda losing those games by a few points and winning them. The difference between St Kilda kicking 9 or 10 goals and losing, verses kicking 11 and winning.

And yes the entries haven't been great. But King should be doing more with them. And would be if he wasn't terribly out of form.

"If this". "If that".

You are 14th ranked for inside 50s this season, so it cant be just about King. Its system. Its midfield. Its speed on ball.

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2024

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2024.

www.footywire.com

Lyon will always have "close games" because his ideal match score is 60 v 59.

If you cant score > 10 or 11 goals in a game and cant get clear of an opposition, you will always be vulnerable in "close games".

It is a deliberate part of his plan and hard-wired into his DNA.

7 goals against Hawthorn (without Sicily) in nice conditions is just deplorable regardless of anything else.

 

[PJays]

"If this". "If that".

You are 14th ranked for inside 50s this season, so it cant be just about King. Its system. Its midfield. Its speed on ball.

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2024

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2024.

www.footywire.com

An interesting stat. Also interesting that Melbourne (top 4) and Freo (9th but percentage of 110.0), who've had solid seasons but also quite defensive are also low on that list (11th and 15th for inside 50s).

I'd love to see analysis of the quality of those entries. If such analysis exists.

Lyon will always have "close games" because his ideal match score is 60 v 59.

If you cant score > 10 or 11 goals in a game and cant get clear of an opposition, you will always be vulnerable in "close games".

This is true, but it does work both ways.

It means you're more vulnerable against crap teams (like losing to Hawthorn) but simultaneously more likely to stay within arms teach of a better team (like almost over-running GWS but falling short by 1 point).

In the Ratten era, we had far too many games where we just completely overrun and got pummelled. The Lyon era's defensive structures have appeared to provide more consistency of competitiveness.

But yes, I've already said I agree, I'd prefer we swung the pendulum towards attack-mode more often.

 

[WillHayward]

Ok let's look at some data

Hawkins - 48 career games at Docklands
Dangerfield - 37
Duncan - 33
C Guthrie - 28
Etc

How many games have senior Saints played at Kardinia Park?

Ross- 6
Hill- 5
Sinclair - 4
Etc

Massive discrepancy. Geelong players way more familiar with StKildas's home ground than vice versa. When you add in the fact that Geelong's ground is a unique shape and Marvel is more standard that discrepancy only grows.


Except crowd is a huge factor influencing home advantage in sport.

Many studies show this using covid data.


That's what St Kilda faces too, we hosted Collingwood at the G this year. Crowd seemed probably 50/50 but mightve sounded different if Saints hadn't been winning.

And unlike Geelong we barely get any games where the crowd is 80-90% in our favour. About 5 a year. Geelong gets 9. That's a nice advantage.


not true- Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, Dogs, North, GWS all split their home games across two venues.

And as I mentioned previously, half, if not most, of Geelong's fan base lives in Melbourne. I know loads of Geelong supporters. If Geelong has 25,000 people at the game and most of them are members sitting near the play, but Carlton or Collingwood have 45,000 and they're a bit louder, hardly a huge disadvantage. I'd call that fairly neutral.

Well you will never get a big crowd playing shit boring footy where you cant score.

 

[littlecreatures]

Well you will never get a big crowd playing s**t boring footy where you cant score.

So, what does that say about Sydney then if they’re averaging 38k home crowd vs Saints 41k with sh** boring footy? https://afltables.com/afl/crowds/2024.html

 

[phantom13]

So, what does that say about Sydney then if they’re averaging 38k home crowd vs Saints 41k with sh** boring footy? https://afltables.com/afl/crowds/2024.html

I can tell you from living the the sports culture in Sydney is just different.

I went to a Rugby World cup game that Australia played in for $20 tickets and the crowd was 20k on a perfect Saturday night, walking distance to Oxford Street. If thats in Melbourne its 80k.

38k at the SCG is massive.

 

[Millsie69]

So, what does that say about Sydney then if they’re averaging 38k home crowd vs Saints 41k with sh** boring footy? https://afltables.com/afl/crowds/2024.html

You're not mentioning the anomaly of having a 'home' game at the G against Collingwood that had 69,000 people there.....

 

[SSSSSS]

Saints can make as many excuses and use all the mental gymnastics they like, but if you cant score 10 goals against Hawthorn on a sunny windless day then you are absolutely ****ed.

The problem is the kicking around and around the boundary game plan. Its outdated and s**t. Gives the fwds no chance.
Saints game is high effort and no reward and the players are burnt out. Superior fitness isnt working. Its all so inefficient.

Saints fans can talking about "close losses" but this is Lyons trademark.

8.10 to 7.11 is a classic Lyon scorecard. Its always about his "close losses" and he wont change. He refuses to change.

They conceded 10 goals to Hawthorn with a 2 gamer as CHF and a well done Jack Gunston as a make shift FF.

 

[SuperMal]

"If this". "If that".

You are 14th ranked for inside 50s this season, so it cant be just about King. Its system. Its midfield. Its speed on ball.

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2024

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2024.

www.footywire.com

Lyon will always have "close games" because his ideal match score is 60 v 59.

If you cant score > 10 or 11 goals in a game and cant get clear of an opposition, you will always be vulnerable in "close games".

It is a deliberate part of his plan and hard-wired into his DNA.

7 goals against Hawthorn (without Sicily) in nice conditions is just deplorable regardless of anything else.

Maybe the skill set just isn’t there?

Look how the Swans leapt up the ladder last year after, Warner,Heeney, Gulden and Hayward learned to pass the ball over 30 metres - they all look like Mark Bayes now.

 

[littlecreatures]

You're not mentioning the anomaly of having a 'home' game at the G against Collingwood that had 69,000 people there.....

It’s a fixtured home game, just the same as other teams have marquee home games, or shall we just discount this for St Kilda?

 

[PJays]

It’s a fixtured home game, just the same as other teams have marquee home games, or shall we just discount this for St Kilda?

Exactly

Same as last year when we hosted Essendon for the 150th with an identical crowd of 69,000

I hope St Kilda starts scheduling these games twice a year.

 

[Millsie69]

It’s a fixtured home game, just the same as other teams have marquee home games, or shall we just discount this for St Kilda?

Using it in your argument to say you have higher home game attendances than Sydney after just 9 rounds doesn't give the full picture.

Compare the data at the end of the season.

 

[Mat Mann]

Using it in your argument to say you have higher home game attendances than Sydney after just 9 rounds doesn't give the full picture.

Compare the data at the end of the season.

just use 2023 - both made finals, Saints 820 more avg home game
or 2024 3 home game Saints@ 41k vs Swans 4 @37.8k

point to note is if/when we get our shit together on field, we have the potential for so much more

 

[littlecreatures]

Using it in your argument to say you have higher home game attendances than Sydney after just 9 rounds doesn't give the full picture.

Compare the data at the end of the season.

Well, the averages do say we have a higher home crowd attendance, that’s fact mate, not necessarily an argument.

We’re not at the end of the season, we’re at the end of round 9.

However, worthwhile noting Sydney had an average crowd of 32k last year compared to Saints 33k while they played s*** boring footy.

So, to put it in black and white for you, using end of season statistics, as you’ve requested, seems like Saints have had a higher home crowd attendance lol.

 

[Plugger35]

They conceded 10 goals to Hawthorn with a 2 gamer as CHF and a well done Jack Gunston as a make shift FF.

Neither of them kicked any goals though, it was your small forwards Moore, Ginnivan, Watson and Breust that kicked most of your goals and won you the game while we were missing our two best small forwards Higgins and Butler through suspension and injury.

 

[Gavin Excell]

https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/affiliates/kayo/mattaes-phillipous-manager-under-fire-over-deleted-tweet-criticising-ross-lyon/news-story/af1f809c271a984cb6a75f278a668f65

 

[PJays]

Neither of them kicked any goals though, it was your small forwards Moore, Ginnivan, Watson and Breust that kicked most of your goals and won you the game while we were missing our two best small forwards Higgins and Butler through suspension and injury.

Yeah over the past 4 years or so, the Saints top goal kickers have been King, Membrey, Higgins and Butler. It's been very consistent

Unfortunately Higgins is suspended and Butler's injured.

Of the one's playing, King's in the worst form slump of his career. And Membrey's just meandering. Not the player he was 2 years ago. Maybe last year's injuries, and/or age, have caught up to him. Not sure.

 

[BigPond101]

No the AFL have decided we don’t have to play them this year as it’s unfair on fans
Fck me if you’re gonna have a go at least have a clue

Looks like reading and interpreting aren't your strong suits. I imagine you spend most the day wearing a bicycle helmet on doctors orders

 

[WillHayward]

So, what does that say about Sydney then if they’re averaging 38k home crowd vs Saints 41k with sh** boring footy? https://afltables.com/afl/crowds/2024.html

We must be shit and boring and not as entertaining as the mighty RTB saints I guess? The round the boundary/no scoring approach might take the competition by storm?



(or we both know the saints home crowd ave is skewed by spuds match - lets wait a few weeks shall we?)

 

[WillHayward]

It’s a fixtured home game, just the same as other teams have marquee home games, or shall we just discount this for St Kilda?

Not discounting at all - just saying the average will come down as the season goes on.

Also cant compare footy attendance crowds in Melb v Sydney.

Maybe you can show us the tv viewing data by team? Id like to see that data.

2024 AFL TV Ratings (Opening to Round 6) - Sports Industry AU

On Seven, the AFL has had more than 13.183m viewers for the season, this is down from the 15.061m who watched the first 6 rounds of 2023. Even allowing for gaps in the data (mostly low flying single city broadcasts), there are not enough ratings to come anywhere near this. The highest rating...

www.footyindustry.com

 

[FlowersByIrene]

It’s a fixtured home game, just the same as other teams have marquee home games, or shall we just discount this for St Kilda?

You can discount it when it makes sense. You're trying to argue a point that St Kilda has more fan engagement than Sydney but then using a metric heavily influenced by your opposition in games. We all know St Kilda has poor fan engagement in the scheme of things. So we're not really "discounting" any particular metric, just highlighting that that metric doesn't align with the point you're making in this instance.

 

[littlecreatures]

Not discounting at all - just saying the average will come down as the season goes on.

Also cant compare footy attendance crowds in Melb v Sydney.

Maybe you can show us the tv viewing data by team? Id like to see that data.

2024 AFL TV Ratings (Opening to Round 6) - Sports Industry AU

On Seven, the AFL has had more than 13.183m viewers for the season, this is down from the 15.061m who watched the first 6 rounds of 2023. Even allowing for gaps in the data (mostly low flying single city broadcasts), there are not enough ratings to come anywhere near this. The highest rating...

www.footyindustry.com

There’s even more variables with fixturing if you’re relying upon tv ratings. I’m clearly not so not sure why I would show you this.

I just think it’s a bit rich here talking about crows and s*** boring footy, and here Sydney are pulling lesser crowds, however way you want to put it.

Let’s also acknowledge Saints have another what 9 Vic teams to compete with when it comes to pulling a strong supporter base, and that’s before we even start scratching the surface of broad competitive advantages.

 

[littlecreatures]

We must be s**t and boring and not as entertaining as the mighty RTB saints I guess? The round the boundary/no scoring approach might take the competition by storm?



(or we both know the saints home crowd ave is skewed by spuds match - lets wait a few weeks shall we?)

Finally a comment we can all agree with. Thank you