The Liberal Party - How long?

[The Speaker]

That is my point. It is the natural equilibrium as dictated by our people historically. Parties that are too far left or right of centre do not last here. That's the system people have set up whether they consciously realise it or not.

Except it had nothing to do with being 'too far left or right' (which is an inaccurate representation of ideologies in any case).

The modern situation is not as it was then. There are no new ideological groups. There is no reason for two different ideologies to band together to combat the third.

 

[footyfan1978]

Except it had nothing to do with being 'too far left or right'

You are dismissed.

 

[Farm Boy]

I will repeat what I said in the Victorian thread.

The Liberal Party does not know why it doesn't stand for anything, which is why the leadership's only response to a potential crisis is "we have to go back to being a broad church".

Being a broad church worked when the conservatives and the liberals had an enemy in the socialist ALP, up until the end of the Cold War. But that generation died with Howard, because the Hawke/Keating era turned the ALP into a predominantly liberal party. With no common enemy (despite a re-emergent socialist wing in the ALP), the Liberals are left fighting themselves over very significant differences in their worldviews.

I would agree with that. Great analysis.

But if the conservatives among the Liberal Party actually do stand for anything, and truly believe in what they preach, then they should move over to the Australian Conservatives. The Liberal Party is a coalition of completely different ideologies. It just will not work going forward. Bernardi seen that. He was happy to leave frauds and leakers like Abbot back where they belong - with the small L liberals in the Liberal party.

 

[The Speaker]

I would agree with that. Great analysis.

But if the conservatives among the Liberal Party actually do stand for anything, and truly believe in what they preach, then they should move over to the Australian Conservatives. The Liberal Party is a coalition of completely different ideologies. It just will not work going forward. Bernardi seen that. He was happy to leave frauds and leakers like Abbot back where they belong - with the small L liberals in the Liberal party.

Bernardi has a big problem in attracting people to his party: he's a Thatcherite. His economic beliefs are anathema to many genuine conservatives.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

There is no way Liberal party are going anywhere. The whole system is set up to pick between two parties close to the middle. One will be in government and always some third minor party to keep the balance from being totally out of whack. Australians just will not put up with parties too far left or too far right. But they will also never let one party dominate for more than one election. How long will Greens last is the real question?
Minor parties are the ones that come and go.

I don’t think anybody’s suggesting there wouldn’t be a second “major party”, more that the current iteration of the Liberal Party may not have much of a useful life left.

The conservatives and liberals in the supposed party have been at war for 10 years now, and they’ve made the Labor Party seem united despite the Rudd/Gillard farce.

Will they regain any semblance of purpose? It’s pretty hard to see. I can see a split. The conservatives will become a minor party, perhaps a little bigger than the Greens. Maybe even a minor coalition partner. The Liberals will need time (as in a decade at the bare minimum) and some Labor cockups (which will happen) before they’re competitive.

 

[footyfan1978]

the current iteration of the Liberal Party may not have much of a useful life left.

Liberal party is not going anywhere. Like your Essendon Football Club it is an institution that will rise and fall through various regimes within but continue. It is crazy talk it is going to die off as the title of thread supposes.

 

[Hawk Dork]

The Liberals only way to exist is to convince people who will be worse off under them to vote for them.
There's only so many levers hate, racism, fear,lies, faux "aspiration"

There's still plenty of idiots around to keep them around in the future

 

[Maggie5]

Liberal party is not going anywhere. Like your Essendon Football Club it is an institution that will rise and fall through various regimes within but continue. It is crazy talk it is going to die off as the title of thread supposes.

I think the operative words were 'current iteration'. Not that they were going away.

 

[Seeds]

I am not sure how you can agree with this! I am not referring to co-payments.

A 49 yo can be referred by a GP for an MRI and receive a rebate, yet a 50+1 month does not unless he is referred by a specialist. How is that fair?

I know a number of very active 50+ year olds who are still active in sports. Specialists are the beneficiaries of this change. Union group Libs like?

You should check out the Budget for the last three years and also changes to Medicare as a result of 'task-force recommendations'.
https://www.humanservices.gov.au/sites/default/files/2018/05/2018-19-budget-10a.pdf
https://www.humanservices.gov.au/organisations/about-us/budget/budget-2018-19

These changes do not require legislation but are amended by regulation with very little publicity until you front up and given a $500 account which is not covered by medicare or Private Health insurance.

Sorry I don't trust the Libs on Health policy! Labor were right, they will dismantle Medicare bit by bit.

I dont think it should exist unless its universal. If it was universal it would be fairer.

 

[Pessimistic]

Bernardi has a big problem in attracting people to his party: he's a Thatcherite. His economic beliefs are anathema to many genuine conservatives.

Bernardi had grand ideas of being a trump. He’s not the only moth who followed the flame only to find a moth zapper

 

[Benny78]

Pretty amazing how a party with such a large group of supporters who elected their pm, can be controlled and overthrown by like 5% of their base!!!!

So now all these upper middle class avocado eating free marketeers join labor now? Ok

 

[Badesumofu]

Ideally, the 'moderates' (again, not actually the correct term - they are liberals) would join with those in the ALP to form a new Liberal Party, leaving the ALP to the socialists and the conservatives to create a conservative party, perhaps transforming the Nationals into one.

From an ALP perspective - I don't see how that makes sense for anyone in our party. We function better having both a left and right wing and it benefits both sides to keep both in the tent. The socialist left simply don't behave like the Liberals' hard right and throw tantrums when we don't get our way about things. There's especially no incentive for the right wing of the party to break away given that they actually are the dominant faction and that breaking away would mean losing support from the left.

Ideally the Liberal Party fixes its own problems and leaves us out of it. Keep in mind - the (not so) recent division in the ALP wasn't really a left/right issue, it was Kevin Rudd issue. It was about personalities. Whether or not Labor now has a united team ready to govern, we will find out in the near future after a federal election.

 

[Frank Bunn]

Liberal party is not going anywhere. Like your Essendon Football Club it is an institution that will rise and fall through various regimes within but continue. It is crazy talk it is going to die off as the title of thread supposes.

This thread is a bit like after Carlton beat Essendon last year. The Carlton fans up and about thinking they will win the flag next year and predicting Essendon will go bust. People always overreact and think short term.

 

[QuietB]

Conservatives have nailed their colours to the mast on a series of issues that have zero popular support. Posing all of SSM, climate change, safe schools, the ABC, etc.

The only future for the LNP is if the liberals regain control, because the Conservatives are completely and entirely unelectable.

 

[Frank Bunn]

I don't think you can extrapolate much from the Vic election to the rest of Australia. The current Federal government is Liberal/National, as are the state governments of NSW, SA and Tasmania.

The Vic Liberals ran a shocking campaign and got smashed at the polls. The result is quite similar to the Vic state election in 2006 yet they won in 2010.

 

[Maggie5]

I don't think you can extrapolate much from the Vic election to the rest of Australia. The current Federal government is Liberal/National, as are the state governments of NSW, SA and Tasmania.

The Vic Liberals ran a shocking campaign and got smashed at the polls. The result is quite similar to the Vic state election in 2006 yet they won in 2010.

TAS 13 Libs, 10 Labor, 2 other. SA 25 Libs, 19 Labor, 3 Other.
Not exactly big margins and both were due for a change so not sure you can hold them up as examples. NSW will be interesting in 2019.
The result in Victoria according to numerous media reports that at least 1.5 to 2% Federal politics did have an impact.

 

[Frank Bunn]

Conservatives have nailed their colours to the mast on a series of issues that have zero popular support. Posing all of SSM, climate change, safe schools, the ABC, etc.

The only future for the LNP is if the liberals regain control, because the Conservatives are completely and entirely unelectable.

Nearly 5 million people voted no to SSM, many of them in areas with high numbers of conservative immigrant cultures such as Chinese, Lebanese, Turkish, and Lebanese. Yet it was a Liberal government that enacted SSM. Only the Twitterverse could get outraged over this.

Climate change is almost irrelevant to most people's priorities, except electricity prices.

The ALP has backed down on Safe Schools so that it's hardly visible.

Of these issues only electricity prices will be front and foremost at the next Federal Election.

 

[Hawk Dork]

Climate change is almost irrelevant to most people's priorities, except electricity prices.

Of these issues only electricity prices will be front and foremost at the next Federal Election.

Keep on believing that

Its the touqh on crime type campaign Fedstyle

 

[Dirty_banchez]

Liberals are out of touch and moving more towards the style of Trump politics, which doesn't play as well in Australia.

Trump style politics will never play well in Australia. We have a semi-decent education system and we have mandatory voting.

SCOMO needs to stop the Trump act because it is repulsing people away from the Libs.

 

[Pessimistic]

I don't think you can extrapolate much from the Vic election to the rest of Australia. The current Federal government is Liberal/National, as are the state governments of NSW, SA and Tasmania.

The Vic Liberals ran a shocking campaign and got smashed at the polls. The result is quite similar to the Vic state election in 2006 yet they won in 2010.

Every liberal seat is now marginal. Only the Nats have a buffer

 

[Pessimistic]

Nearly 5 million people voted no to SSM, many of them in areas with high numbers of conservative immigrant cultures such as Chinese, Lebanese, Turkish, and Lebanese. Yet it was a Liberal government that enacted SSM. Only the Twitterverse could get outraged over this.

Climate change is almost irrelevant to most people's priorities, except electricity prices.

The ALP has backed down on Safe Schools so that it's hardly visible.

Of these issues only electricity prices will be front and foremost at the next Federal Election.

If only the cons had a policy eh?

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

TAS 13 Libs, 10 Labor, 2 other. SA 25 Libs, 19 Labor, 3 Other.
Not exactly big margins and both were due for a change so not sure you can hold them up as examples. NSW will be interesting in 2019.
The result in Victoria according to numerous media reports that at least 1.5 to 2% Federal politics did have an impact.

Yep. It was a pretty s**t post. Sa had four terms of labor. They were the only labor government when they came to power.

Will probably do another 4 straight after this one liberal. 5 in a row is very hard to do.

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

Every liberal seat is now marginal. Only the Nats have a buffer

And the female vote will decimate them.

And only Julie Bishop has any chance filling the front bench.

 

[Maggie5]

Porter on 7.30 Report... "We need to better messengers, not getting across all the great things we have done".

Good idea start with spending less time on scaremongering and race bait, then maybe you can tell us how everybody is so much better off and all the good things you are doing re climate change, not cutting Medicare, explaining how immigration works and for whom, education, etc etc.

I did hear the one about electricity prices savings of $100-$300 over the next 3 years which then reminded me about the $500 Abbott promised.
What about Gas prices? You know things that affect everyone especially low income earners, you know the ones I mean, the ones that you cut the penalty rates from because it would encourage more employment. Got any figures on that?

Oh dear, not sure what they need before they get the message.

Shame that the opposition is not strong in NSW as might not get the message.

 

[The Speaker]

From an ALP perspective - I don't see how that makes sense for anyone in our party. We function better having both a left and right wing and it benefits both sides to keep both in the tent. The socialist left simply don't behave like the Liberals' hard right and throw tantrums when we don't get our way about things. There's especially no incentive for the right wing of the party to break away given that they actually are the dominant faction and that breaking away would mean losing support from the left.

Ideally the Liberal Party fixes its own problems and leaves us out of it. Keep in mind - the (not so) recent division in the ALP wasn't really a left/right issue, it was Kevin Rudd issue. It was about personalities. Whether or not Labor now has a united team ready to govern, we will find out in the near future after a federal election.

Ideological differences always become an issue. Should the economy fall over while federal Labor is in government, these will come to the fore.