Competitions The Pieman 2021 - with a difference!

[dogwatch]

Yeah definitely. Sorry I wasn't trying to be overly critical, just raising a point I thought of, as I had a quick perusal and it seemed handicaps had reduced rather than increased in general over the season (which might not even be correct as it's just based on a quick look).
I think the general application of zero sum is fair enough for the purpose of the competition, not advocating for exactly 1 for 1 necessarily and yeah that would be difficult to implement with ins/outs each each as well.
I agree with not changing the handicaps until there's runs (or lack thereof) on the board but I think it would be cool to see some of the back end players gain larger handicaps to entice piesters into selecting them, especially for those that have fallen behind in the standings. Just as examples, Duryea and Williams both have kicked 0 goals in 4 weeks but their handicaps haven't changed much at all. Could be cool to have them blow out a bit (similar to how Smith and VDM decreased) which would also help to increase the variation in players selected.
Anyway, I think you're already doing it more or less so yeah, all good !

No problem. Constructive criticism or questioning is good.

I found half an hour to run the numbers.

*** Geek Alert ***

I constructed them as an index (with Round 1 being base=100) and only used those 22 players who were selected each week.

The way the index was derived was to pose the question "how many goals would it take on this handicap to get 100 Pieman points?" This means that the shorter the collective handicaps the higher the index goes. So for instance in Rd 1 Tim English had a handicap of 14 and that would have required 7.14 goals to make 100 pts. In Round 2 his handicap was 13 so it would have needed 7.69 goals and so on. Tomorrow his handicap is 10 so he needs 10 goals to make 100 pts.

I then added up that result for all 22 players over the 5 rounds and normalised it to 100 for Rd 1 so it could be used as an index (easier to interpret). I used the same Rd 1 normalising number as the multiplier for all subsequent rounds.

Whether I've explained that clearly enough or not the main thing is to look at the movement of the index each week. Taken across the playing list of 22 each week (excluding medical subs and emergencies) the index has changed as follows:

Rd 1	100.0
Rd 2	97.9
Rd 3	96.9
Rd 4	102.3
Rd 5	103.5

So it's in about that range I guessed (plus or minus 3% to 5% since Rd 1). The big difference came after our 25 goal romp against North and most of that was from shortening Bruce's handicap after his 10 goal haul (plus a bit from Bont and English).

I'll keep an eye on it over the coming weeks. I'll aim to keep the index close to 100 but I won't be losing any sleep if it goes a bit over 105 or a bit under 95.

Hope that answers your question.

 

[dogwatch]

Naughton x3
Bont
Hunter

I’m going to follow suit and copy Scrags selections. Sweet to goal on debut and brother of Finlay to outshine his brother on his debut weekend.

Sweet x 3, Fins brother x 2!!

Done.


I've got a full day tomorrow so will only be able to check in occasionally. I'm sure you'll all be just be fine.

 

[Floridog]

Englishx2, Naughton, Bont and Swe... er B Smith.

 

[theAthenian]

hunter hunter bruce astronaught sweet

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

I’d like to change my team to Sweet, Bont, Vandermeer, Smith and Scott

 

[ossie_21]

Naughton x3, English, Sweet

 

[grassman75]

New Team

Naughton, English x 2 Bont, Sweet Candy Butt

 

[Sharkey66]

english
williams
bont
dunkley
jj

 

[Curly5]

English
Hunter
Bont
Treloar
Bruce

 

[BEaston]

No problem. Constructive criticism or questioning is good.

I found half an hour to run the numbers.

*** Geek Alert ***

I constructed them as an index (with Round 1 being base=100) and only used those 22 players who were selected each week.

The way the index was derived was to pose the question "how many goals would it take on this handicap to get 100 Pieman points?" This means that the shorter the collective handicaps the higher the index goes. So for instance in Rd 1 Tim English had a handicap of 14 and that would have required 7.14 goals to make 100 pts. In Round 2 his handicap was 13 so it would have needed 7.69 goals and so on. Tomorrow his handicap is 10 so he needs 10 goals to make 100 pts.

I then added up that result for all 22 players over the 5 rounds and normalised it to 100 for Rd 1 so it could be used as an index (easier to interpret). I used the same Rd 1 normalising number as the multiplier for all subsequent rounds.

Whether I've explained that clearly enough or not the main thing is to look at the movement of the index each week. Taken across the playing list of 22 each week (excluding medical subs and emergencies) the index has changed as follows:

Rd 1	100.0
Rd 2	97.9
Rd 3	96.9
Rd 4	102.3
Rd 5	103.5

So it's in about that range I guessed (plus or minus 3% to 5% since Rd 1). The big difference came after our 25 goal romp against North and most of that was from shortening Bruce's handicap after his 10 goal haul (plus a bit from Bont and English).

I'll keep an eye on it over the coming weeks. I'll aim to keep the index close to 100 but I won't be losing any sleep if it goes a bit over 105 or a bit under 95.

Hope that answers your question.

Nice work mate! Cheers for looking into it

 

[lateniter]

Sweet x2
English
Treloar
Liberatore

Cheers, mate

 

[BEaston]

Sweet x3
English
Bruce

 

[SayerTheCreator]

Sorry, late change for me. Bont out, Sweet in.

Libba x2
English x2
Sweet

 

[weltschmerz]

I'm changing my side completely given the Suns' backline. Sweet x2, Naughton, Bruce, English.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Johannisen x2
Naughton
Bruce
English

 

[TedDougChris]

Sweet, McNeil, Bont, Treloar, English - thanks mate !!

 

[Kermit]

Naughton
Bontempelli
Treloar
English
Liberatore

please DW

 

[Doggies_13]

English, sweet, lipinski, naughton and Bruce

 

[businessfish]

English x 3
Naughton x 3

 

[businessfish]

Whoops, meant:

English x 3
Naughton x 2

TY DW

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Replace Vandermeer with Naughton thanks

 

[Wocka]

VDM out, change to Sweet x 2

Cheers DW

 

[LordC]

English x2
Naughtin x2
Bont



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SayerTheCreator]

Naughton
Bontempelli
Treloar
English
Liberatore

please DW

great picks Kermit!!

 

[dogwatch]

Pieman Substitutes Rd 5

Vandermeer's withdrawal due to back spasms meant that the Pieman substitutes came into play again today.

The order of subs according to the rules (see the OPs) was:

English
Naughton
Macrae
Libba
Hunter
B Smith
Bruce

So if you don't already have English in your team you get him as many times as you had Vandermeer. If you already had English then you get Naughton but if you already had him you get Macrae and so on.

Vandermeer was selected 9 times. In 8 of those English became the sub:

bontshow (x2)
dish licker
Dogs_R_Us
RandomDog
ScottyDogg (x2)
VL3OJ

The only other who had Vandermeer was Jeff 1975 - he already had both English and Naughton so his sub was Macrae.

And then there was dish licker who had a carryover team containing Daniel so he got a second sub - Naughton.

There were 8 Pieman teams that carried over their selections from last week (54Bulldog16, Bontshow, dish licker, Fossie 32, Jeff 1975, josh the gent, ScottyDogg and Vinegar Mess). So the final teams were:



I haven't done complete checking of these for correct data entry yet so if you think your team is wrong let me know. I'll post the results tomorrow (maybe late in the day again). Sorry for the delay ... just a busy weekend!