Analysis The Run Home

[HirdsTheWord]

Was watching FC and they showed Gold Coasts stats they are ranked #18 in pretty much everything.

We better belt those pricks by at least 100

i reckon you will need 13 wins and 110 +% to get into finals this year

I think we can get 13 wins but the % is hard for us, will definaltey need to slaughter St Kilda and GC in order to get it done.

 

[Frazb]

Given all the talk about a so called super draft that could rival '01 worst case scenario we finish 9th

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Given all the talk about a so called super draft that could rival '01 worst case scenario we finish 9th

Dont they say it's a 'super draft' every year

 

[adsla69k]

Dont they say it's a 'super draft' every year

They are already talking up Hayden Young for next year as pick 1. The kid is a freak but! Fyfe MKII

 

[Lore]

Interesting, if not overly insightful. I feel like a lot of these models are descriptive rather than predictive. I'm amazed that the thing below thinks GWS will make the eight while Hawthorn should finish 9th and North 10th though.





Wins (y axis): Losses (x axis) gives percentage chance of making the top 8 based on historical data.




The first model gives us 5% chance of making the eight. The second one, based on historical data, has us currently sitting at 31.2% chance, but if we win our next one so we're 7-7 we'd be over 50%.

 

[pepsi]

The first model gives us 5% chance of making the eight. The second one, based on historical data, has us currently sitting at 31.2% chance, but if we win our next one so we're 7-7 we'd be over 50%.

Is the historical data only from when the competition has had 18 teams, or does it include when the comp had 16 teams? I feel like that would change the data.

 

[Maddogm]

where the historical data gets really fun is in the 11 and 12 loss column.

If you're 8-12 and win your last 2 games your historical chance of making the 8 goes down after each win

 

[TDay]

so you're saying we're a chance!

 

[TDay]

Is the historical data only from when the competition has had 18 teams, or does it include when the comp had 16 teams? I feel like that would change the data.

Surely it's just the 18 team era? There is strangness that could be explained by a small sample size. Like 9-4 is 100% chance to make the 8, but 10-4 and 11-4 are not? Odd.
Does anyone know the last time a team was 11-4 and missed?

 

[Lore]

Is the historical data only from when the competition has had 18 teams, or does it include when the comp had 16 teams? I feel like that would change the data.

It's a good question, however the data is something I acquired a couple of years ago and I don't have the source anymore, which is frustrating I'd say it'd be 16 team comp data, and possibly further back than that even. There hasn't been enough data since GWS entered the competition to iron out anomalies, and even if there was enough data about a third of it would consist of GC and GWS being artificially low and making everyone else more likely to make finals.

 

[TDay]

Ouch. 2013 we were 12 - 3 and missed the 8. I'd purged that from the memory. We kept doing hamstrings for some reason...
The data must be from before that because it wouldnt be 100% for 12 - 3 otherwise
So it must be from the 16 team era. Still gives a fair idea of the liklihood of a complete team form reversal though (either collapse or a shit-getting-together)

Extra edit: We actually made it to 13-3 that year before collapsing to 9th. Fair to say it was the worst collapse in afl history. So. We have the built up karma to do the reverse this season

 

[Lore]

where the historical data gets really fun is in the 11 and 12 loss column.

If you're 8-12 and win your last 2 games your historical chance of making the 8 goes down after each win

Because you need 13 to be secure, 12 sometimes requires percentage and if you are losing your last few games then you're not improving your percentage, therefore your position becomes more vulnerable.

What I like is that there's still "a chance" when you're 7-12. Nothing like a bit of false hope.

 

[blitzer]

5% chance to make the 8 eh? I like those odds.

Its funny for all the fancy data that goes on behind the scenes and the nice looking output, the truth is if I told you that we were 6 wins and 7 losses after 13 rounds with a percentage of 93 then anyone on this forum could tell you we are still a chance to make finals but will need to finish stronger than we started.

Anyway the next 2 weeks are massive games for us. If we win those I'm sure champion data will shift us into making the 8.

There's been a lot of talk about percentage but I think it will probably look after itself if we win enough games. Plus teams will drop games to bottom teams unexpectedly. So just because say North Melbourne have an easy draw doesn't mean they won't lose games to crap teams at some point. I emphasise this point because people have a tendency to just mark teams down as wins against every lower ranked team but it never works out that way. This will also mean that the required number of wins could drop from 13 to 12 potentially.

 

[Lore]

5% chance to make the 8 eh? I like those odds.

Its funny for all the fancy data that goes on behind the scenes and the nice looking output, the truth is if I told you that we were 6 wins and 7 losses after 13 rounds with a percentage of 93 then anyone on this forum could tell you we are still a chance to make finals but will need to finish stronger than we started.

Anyway the next 2 weeks are massive games for us. If we win those I'm sure champion data will shift us into making the 8.

There's been a lot of talk about percentage but I think it will probably look after itself if we win enough games. Plus teams will drop games to bottom teams unexpectedly. So just because say North Melbourne have an easy draw doesn't mean they won't lose games to crap teams at some point. I emphasise this point because people have a tendency to just mark teams down as wins against every lower ranked team but it never works out that way. This will also mean that the required number of wins could drop from 13 to 12 potentially.

It's always nice when objective data interpreted properly verifies your opinions though. Biases and fallacies are pretty common.

The problem for us is that the top 9 teams already have 8 wins on the board, compared to our six. They're much more likely to make that 12 win threshold and with a higher percentage than we are, since we have to win two more than they do for the rest of the year just to break even on wins (nevermind the percentage).

I feel like the bottom of the ladder is worse than it usually is, and it inflates the middle of the ladder more than it usually does (not that we benefited much ). That's probably one of those fallacies though. Like there's always going to be a Carlton type season and a Brisbane type season, but the bottom five have 11 wins between them... that feels somewhat unusual for a relatively unadulterated year (e.g. no brand new teams).

 

[Halftimehero]

It's always nice when objective data interpreted properly verifies your opinions though. Biases and fallacies are pretty common.

The problem for us is that the top 9 teams already have 8 wins on the board, compared to our six. They're much more likely to make that 12 win threshold and with a higher percentage than we are, since we have to win two more than they do for the rest of the year just to break even on wins (nevermind the percentage).

I feel like the bottom of the ladder is worse than it usually is, and it inflates the middle of the ladder more than it usually does (not that we benefited much ). That's probably one of those fallacies though. Like there's always going to be a Carlton type season and a Brisbane type season, but the bottom five have 11 wins between them... that feels somewhat unusual for a relatively unadulterated year (e.g. no brand new teams).

Yep spot on, we need the bottom 4 teams to start beating teams, last year Brisbane finished last and won 5 games, 17th, 16th and 15th all won 6, that doesn't look likely this year.

 

[Call Me Cake]

If we only lose to Sydney, Richmond and Port - the only way for us to make the 8 is if North loses 5 games (4 wins) and Collingwood loses 6 (3 wins)

And ironically, the best way for us to kick that into gear is the next 2 weeks...

 

[bombre-boy]

5% chance to make the 8 eh? I like those odds.

Its funny for all the fancy data that goes on behind the scenes and the nice looking output, the truth is if I told you that we were 6 wins and 7 losses after 13 rounds with a percentage of 93 then anyone on this forum could tell you we are still a chance to make finals but will need to finish stronger than we started.

Anyway the next 2 weeks are massive games for us. If we win those I'm sure champion data will shift us into making the 8.

There's been a lot of talk about percentage but I think it will probably look after itself if we win enough games. Plus teams will drop games to bottom teams unexpectedly. So just because say North Melbourne have an easy draw doesn't mean they won't lose games to crap teams at some point. I emphasise this point because people have a tendency to just mark teams down as wins against every lower ranked team but it never works out that way. This will also mean that the required number of wins could drop from 13 to 12 potentially.

We have a regular tendency to do this......

 

[BrewSmackerVeiny]

Ouch. 2013 we were 12 - 3 and missed the 8. I'd purged that from the memory. We kept doing hamstrings for some reason...
The data must be from before that because it wouldnt be 100% for 12 - 3 otherwise
So it must be from the 16 team era. Still gives a fair idea of the liklihood of a complete team form reversal though (either collapse or a shit-getting-together)

Extra edit: We actually made it to 13-3 that year before collapsing to 9th. Fair to say it was the worst collapse in afl history. So. We have the built up karma to do the reverse this season

2013 we finished 7th and got removed from finals.
2012 we were 11-4 and finished the year 11-11, that was the horrible injury year.

 

[Towno78]

If we only lose to Sydney, Richmond and Port - the only way for us to make the 8 is if North loses 5 games (4 wins) and Collingwood loses 6 (3 wins)

And ironically, the best way for us to kick that into gear is the next 2 weeks...

No. That would see us miss on %.
12 wins will not do it. We need to win another 7 to be a small chance, but really want to win 8.

 

[pepsi]

Win on Sunday and we are only a game behind geelong and north.

 

[JayJ20]

Win on Sunday and we are only a game behind geelong and north.

And Hawks if GWS beat them

 

[adsla69k]

The Western Bulldogs and Carlton games are killers.

Geelong lost tonight. Not that they will fall out, but it all helps.

 

[pepsi]

And Hawks if GWS beat them

At this point we are cheering for every team a few positions above us to lose.

 

[Maxabillions]

Looks like we play Collingwood first round of finals

 

[adsla69k]

I have us loosing to Port in SA and Richmond and us beating the swans at Etihad. The rest of the games we should win on current form. I had a look at Geelong they better watch out! They have a bad month coming up.