Analysis The run home

[schmuttt]

Brisbane @ MCG
Crows @ MCG
Richmond @ MCG
North @ Tassie
Carlton @ MCG
Hawks @ MCG
Sydney @ SCG

Top two isn't happening, we'll likely have to win them all to overtake the Lions. The three below us will all heavily threaten our spot as their runs home are pretty soft (Essendon have to play Dogs/Pies but also have North/Eagles). Hopefully Pies keep winning to make finishing 4th effectively a neutral final.

 

[Lord Nev]

I'd rather play Brisbane at the GABBA than Port or Collingwood at their homes tbh.

 

[schmuttt]

I'd rather play Brisbane at the GABBA than Port or Collingwood at their homes tbh.

That'd require one of the top 2 to drop two more games than Brisbane, which is probably more likely to be the Pies if the Lions and Port both beat them on the way in.

 

[Lord Nev]

That'd require one of the top 2 to drop two more games than Brisbane, which is probably more likely to be the Pies if the Lions and Port both beat them on the way in.

Yeah, having a really quick go through the ladder predictor (without doing %) I have us playing Port (4th v 1st) in week 1 of the finals.

Some massive massive games along the way, the upcoming showdown will be enormous.

 

[schmuttt]

Yeah, having a really quick go through the ladder predictor (without doing %) I have us playing Port (4th v 1st) in week 1 of the finals.

Some massive massive games along the way, the upcoming showdown will be enormous.

Our next three are really big at shaping the ladder. Brisbane beat us and they're basically locked into top 4, and Adelaide/Richmond are playing to keep their season alive.

 

[mrmonkey]

I think the top 4 will stay the same, I think I would rather Collingwood in a qualifying final than a preliminary final of course a loss puts us on the port Adelaide or Brisbane side both would be a tough ask to play interstate preliminary final. I would also want to hit finals in good form realistically need to go 5-2 as a minimum that gives us a 15-8 finish which isn't great. Can't see us winning the premiership on current form but if we magically click then get some players back then I would reconsider my position.

 

[Blackas87]

Brisbane this week are our only opponent for the rest of the year that are currently in the 8. Adelaide, Richmond and Carlton (all at the MCG) as opponents that are still in the finals race but we have a pretty soft fixture for the rest of the year. If we really are a contender we shouldn’t be dropping any game for the rest of the year.

 

[Crimson Azure]

To finish off the year I predict....

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

I’m convinced that the delicious irony of all of the late season 2021 melts will have us playing Port at AO in a QF. I’ll back us in as well based on R10.

 

[Topkent]

You'd have to be some kind of nuffy to think this year and 2021 are in anyway at all similar

 

[00Stinger]

We are 7-1 at the MCG this year

5 of the next 7 are at the G

Should track into the top 4 and anything could happen

 

[schmuttt]

You'd have to be some kind of nuffy to think this year and 2021 are in anyway at all similar

G2B is the ultimate homer

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

We are 7-1 at the MCG this year

5 of the next 7 are at the G

Should track into the top 4 and anything could happen

Yeah for us to miss the top 4 from here something disastrous would have to go wrong. Just need to turn up consistently even with our dogshit gameplan and we should get the job done easily in all of our games at the MCG (barring this week which is less of a gimme I guess, if you rate Brisbane).

The Swans haven’t been that good at home this year either and I think the smaller ground will suit us alright, so less worried about R24 than I was when the fixture was released. Esp considering they shouldn’t have anything to play for at that stage (except maybe Buddy’s last game RIP).

Actually now that I say that it seems like a catastrophe waiting to happen. Better hope we’re one game clear going in

 

[schmuttt]

Carlton and Sydney games loom as big danger games for different reasons, we should win the others outside the Lions game.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Carlton and Sydney games loom as big danger games for different reasons, we should win the others outside the Lions game.

Carlton haven’t beaten anyone currently higher than 13th since they beat the Cats when they were rubbish in R2, and the Giants in R3, who also started poorly. Haven’t been very competitive in their losses to the good sides either

They are beyond shite. If we lose to them even on a bad day the season is tainted beyond repair. I don’t think we could have played much worse than we did in R12 and we still won.

I’d be more worried about the Richmond game. If they bring the pressure they brought on ANZAC Eve and we don’t kick straight or come in flat, I wouldn’t be surprised if they sprung us. Same with Adelaide.

 

[Topkent]

We are 7-1 at the MCG this year

5 of the next 7 are at the G

Should track into the top 4 and anything could happen

No team has ever won it from 4th. Basically finish outside third and it's all over save from a miracle

 

[Daemon]

No team has ever won it from 4th. Basically finish outside third and it's all over save from a miracle

So what?

I'm sure we can beat the pies and then whoever in the prelim at the MCG.

I don't think this will happen unless our form improves significantly, but I don't think historical stats have any relevance to us doing it.

 

[Topkent]

So what?

I'm sure we can beat the pies and then whoever in the prelim at the MCG.

I don't think this will happen unless our form improves significantly, but I don't think historical stats have any relevance to us doing it.

We could. Essendon could also win the flag from 8th. That's the type of range we would be in

 

[Daemon]

We could. Essendon could also win the flag from 8th. That's the type of range we would be in

Well anyone can win it if they make finals. My argument is that historical stats mean nothing.

 

[Topkent]

Well anyone can win it if they make finals. My argument is that historical stats mean nothing.

Sure anyone can but you can't pretend it's equal for every side as well. Every year teams 5th-8th get talked up and smashed eventually and every year 4th has failed to win. Relying on a once in a lifetime effort like the dogs is all we have at that point

 

[00Stinger]

No team has ever won it from 4th. Basically finish outside third and it's all over save from a miracle

No one has ever won it from 4th, yet.

 

[Topkent]

No one has ever won it from 4th, yet.

Go chuck some hard earned on us then cause you'll get good odds

 

[Crusty Demon]

I'd rather Pies first week at the G than a potential prelim against them. Port are flaky pointy end of the finals. Much rather potentially face them in a prelim.

 

[00Stinger]

Go chuck some hard earned on us then cause you'll get good odds

Dunno if I think we will win it

But no 4th team winning the GF has to be a statistical abnormality when there is no real difference between finishing 3rd v finishing 4th

 

[Topkent]

Dunno if I think we will win it

But no 4th team winning the GF has to be a statistical abnormality when there is no real difference between finishing 3rd v finishing 4th

There has to be a point where you're just not that good the lower you finish and 3rd seems to be that. 4th also travels to play first in the qualifying final and then 2nd at home even if they win the semi