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Autopsy The Stats Don’t Lie: VicBIAS By The Numbers - An Empirical Analysis
- Thread starter Rory Walkerfield
- Start date
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- vicbias
- Tagged users None
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Truth be told I am not sure, but there has been a strong pattern of not only Victorian clubs winning a lot more flags in the last 15 years and also Victorian clubs having a better run of the umpires in Grand Finals in that period of time so I think there needs to be a discussion.
I think it is related to not only umpiring, but more importantly drafting is harder for non-Victorian clubs as more and more players in the draft, usually Victorians, are basically saying they refuse to be drafted by a non-Victorian side, or if they are they will go home at the first available opportunity. It makes things harder in a way that Victorian clubs do not need to deal with nearly as much.
I am not sure what exactly you are trying to prove by asking that. To say mid 2000s was when the game became fully professional is a somewhat radical opinion which is why I commented on it.
Not really interested in whatever #VICBIAS argument is being made here, so carry on.
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The "royal commission" was not just about flags, it was about why there was a dearth of Vic sides near the top of the ladder, they had no grand finalists for 3 years running and only 5 of the 20 top 4 spots in the prior 5 years, even though they made up over 60% of the competition. That is a massive statistical anomoly.
Where as since then there have been lots of interstate sides up in the top 4 and playing off in GFs.
This is more than offset by the challenges Victorian teams have in actually getting a returning player.
When a player wants to move home to Perth, there are two options - often, just one really, due to ladder position or other factors (as there was with Luke Jackson, for example). Same with a player who wants to go hide away from the spotlight in Sydney, or go surfing on the Gold Coast, etc.
When a decent player wants to come back to Melbourne, there's a free-for-all with 10 clubs competing. Each has their charms - Geelong the beach/property bonus, Carlton and Essendon have done well promoting the big games you get to play in, etc. But when the team is struggling on field it is a double challenge for Victorian teams (a la North now) whereas non-vic teams can always just luck out if someone wants to come home.
Basically, all teams have advantages and disadvantages. The successful teams (Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, West Coast) have really learnt to leverage theirs, other teams haven't. Each unique feature is a double edged sword imo and the good teams are able to put it to better use
That’s not what you argued, you were talking about teams with a definitive home ground advantage. Which Geelong has.
The fact remains that non-Melbourne clubs are over represented in minor premierships, top 2 and top 4 finishes. But that doesn’t suit your little rant now does it.
Not always. Often a player will basically tell his club which club he wants to be traded to. Judd told West Coast he wanted to go to Carlton, Dangerfield told Adelaide he wanted to go to Geelong so there isn't as much of a bidding war in many instances.
Also yes Sydney have benefitted from players who wanted to be out of the limelight, but it isn't something that has happened for a good long while. I can't speak for GWS, Gold Coast or Brisbane but in the last decade Sydney have gone after quite a few players at the trade table and have not really been able to secure anyone of note. It is really hard for the NSW and QLD clubs to get players to agree to come much of the time. Brisbane have had a bit of success in recent years, but prior to that they only lost good players at the trade table, they did not get any back.
You know the Cheatorians are getting desperate when they are trying to lump the Cats in with the interstate sides.
So you are not sure, but because it happened about the same time (according to your definition) as Vic sides starting on a good run then it is valid to only use that time period, rather than a longer time period where interstate sides did really well?
There might not be a bidding war but there are 10 clubs that they can go to, only 1 gets lucky.
Is anything that happened 30 years ago relevant to the modern game? I can't think of many examples as so many things have changed. You can't compare players from that era and this era, you can't compare finances, you can't compare sponsorship, the media landscape or even the rules, so why do you think you can use stats from the early to mid 90's to try and prove your point?
Yes, and more often than not it is a club high on the ladder, only making the already strong Victorian clubs stronger. If lets say Logan McDonald wanted to go home, well his options would be between a basket case and a middling club that doesn't look like it will be winning a flag anytime soon.
I'm using all available stats, not cherry picking a period where Vic sides had a good run and justifying the choice of that period with something that happened to occur at a similar time according to you.
Like when Buddy chose Swans over the Giants?
???
Since the AFL started in 1990 the Pies have won 2 flags at the G both against Victorian sides, and lost all 3 they played against interstate sides. Maybe the best team on the day wins? Or could it even be NonVicBias?
He runs away when you point out how stupid his posts are.
You've used the Geelong example often enough when it suits your argument.
But I guess we all know that you're dishonest and disingenuous when it comes to your all encompassing sense of entitlement.
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Elmer_Hauser
Melbourne City FC -Australia's GOAT Sokkah Team
A
That is why if we don't make the GF, and Collingwood does, I really want The Lions, Port or Swans to play The Pies in a Grand final
That is why if we don't make the GF, and Collingwood does, I really want The Lions, Port or Swans to play The Pies in a Grand final
If only premierships were won in April
2 of those 3 were pre Royal Commission and the 3rd was by less than a kick by the most powerful sporting club in the country. Collingwood, for the most structurally advantaged club in the league are very bad at converting that advantage.
I feel that's arbitrarily quite selective to suit an argument.
Is free kick count suddenly relevant?
Because the Tiges have been getting a bad differential run for and against for years, but apparantly it's because of us and not umpire bias?
More VicBias at the SCG today with free kick count going 18-10 to the Demons giving them the last 6 goals and denying Swans a home state final.
