grayson0808
Draftee
- Dec 6, 2021
- 15
- 2
- AFL Club
- Sydney
Excluding the decade count, the eventual winner hasn't been less than Song #2 on Warm Tunas. Pretty interesting given the price Flume
Triple J Hottest 100 - 2022
- Thread starter BuddysBiggestFan
- Start date
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I think how fewer votes WT counts now compared to previous years, I think it’s absolutely possible we could have winners come from far further back than their WT placing. Sicko Mode a few years ago for example, even though it didn’t win, it did jump from 11th to 3rd, and that was with quite a lot more votes counted by WT.
It is interesting SBs lack of faith in Bad Habit. It’s been trading places with BOTA around the 10,11, 12 mark, yet it’s price has blown out $15 while BOTA is still at $3.75.
- Aug 17, 2009
- 279
- 365
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Only 125 votes separate songs 1 and 2 apparently. Based on consistently outperforming WT (I'm only vibing that), you would have to think Flume ($1.80) is one of the tracks.
I think GOY still represents the most value at $7.50 (SB) of all the other top songs.
I think GOY still represents the most value at $7.50 (SB) of all the other top songs.
ye olde mole
Senior List
- Oct 2, 2013
- 171
- 132
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Note that head to head betting is now available, along with a range of other slightly more interesting markets. I've backed a few in head to heads that I thought were mis-priced, but I could easily be wrong.
I have less faith in warm tunas than previous years. I fear the change to the way he is collating votes this year will give a less accurate result.
It's still a very useful guide.
I have less faith in warm tunas than previous years. I fear the change to the way he is collating votes this year will give a less accurate result.
It's still a very useful guide.
JT_the_Man
Draft King
I don’t have much faith in WT at all tbh. Personally I still think B.O.T.A wins it.
ye olde mole
Senior List
- Oct 2, 2013
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On Warm Tunas, if you refine the result by removing 'website uploads', Flume drops to number 7.
- Aug 17, 2009
- 279
- 365
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
What does that result mean to you? Do you think Flume is likely to rise or fall on the day?
ye olde mole
Senior List
- Oct 2, 2013
- 171
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- AFL Club
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To be honest, I'm not sure. This is something he hasn't done before. It's possible it's more accurate, but I (for a sample size of one) just uploaded any old random instagram screenshot from someone else so I could see the WT details. I'm included in his results, and I know mine are false. I have no idea how many other people have done the same. Also, how many people shared their votes on socials and uploaded their votes to WT? Again, those results are a duplication.
My concern is that including this new source of data makes his count less accurate but, like I said at the beginning, I'm not sure.
As for Flume specifically, he has regularly outperformed the WT count on the day.
In 2020 predicted at 5 and was at 3
In 2019 predicted at 8 and was at 2
So he's an unusual example. If he were at number 1 I wouldn't be surprised, but he's as short as $1.50 to win this with some bookies, and that's madly short given the circumstances.
I recall in the past, the Warm Tunas guy said he had a program that weeded out duplicate posts, eg. if the 10 votes matched exactly a previous set then it wasn't counted, but the system used this time might overwhelm that? No idea.
- Thread starter
- #36
I tried copying someone else’s votes and entering it on his website to check the vote count before I did my votes. The site rejected it.
ye olde mole
Senior List
- Oct 2, 2013
- 171
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- AFL Club
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That would be terrific. I hope you're right.
ye olde mole
Senior List
- Oct 2, 2013
- 171
- 132
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
That's interesting. I haven't voted yet. I use WT to help me work out what I'm going to vote for (ie I'm old and don't get to listen to JJJ much during the year...so spend January catching up on what I've missed).
How about the fact that hardlight is 79th on Insta posts
Small/historically unreliable sample though
Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
head to heads do suck
hardlight easily over in the wake
sitting up will be pretty close with stars in your eyes but id probably still take sitting up or avoid
bota easily over new gold
bad habit easily over delilah
camp dog over let's go
this is why over girl sports but id probably avoid this one as big droppers and not sure
it's been a long day easily over get inspired
glimpse of us easily over back seat of our mind
dont even think edging or foundations will make it, avoid anyway.
hardlight easily over in the wake
sitting up will be pretty close with stars in your eyes but id probably still take sitting up or avoid
bota easily over new gold
bad habit easily over delilah
camp dog over let's go
this is why over girl sports but id probably avoid this one as big droppers and not sure
it's been a long day easily over get inspired
glimpse of us easily over back seat of our mind
dont even think edging or foundations will make it, avoid anyway.
JT_the_Man
Draft King
I’d take Delilah over Bad Habit tbh
- Thread starter
- #43
Spacey Jane has 5 songs in top 80 v GOY 5 songs in top 120 on WT. $13 for GOY a bit of value although most of their songs could easily miss.
RedmanWasHere
Rarely in kitchens at parties.
- Aug 23, 2010
- 26,882
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- Exers, Gryffindor, Rich+Ess AFLW, Tassie
My top 10 for 2022.
Nothing posted yet but SB are taking BYOs. Ive requested no King Stingray or Genesis Owusu in top 25. Will probably get offered chump change for it but testing the waters.
ye olde mole
Senior List
- Oct 2, 2013
- 171
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- AFL Club
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I requested No King Stingray in the top 20....so we are on the same wavelength there.
There's a few BYO markets up now. Nothing that gets me interested (not that they will let me bet regardless).
Updated - they have put this market up and I was surprised at the odds offered ($4.75). I think that's pretty fair.
I might also add that King Stingray are a real favourite of mine. I just don't think they'll poll as well as Warm Tunas is suggesting.
There's a few BYO markets up now. Nothing that gets me interested (not that they will let me bet regardless).
Updated - they have put this market up and I was surprised at the odds offered ($4.75). I think that's pretty fair.
I might also add that King Stingray are a real favourite of mine. I just don't think they'll poll as well as Warm Tunas is suggesting.
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I think ours were so similar that they split mine up into two, the Genesis Owusu part as one and your King Stingray part as another. Wish i saw it while it was at 4.75 though, would’ve jumped right on it.
N95 by Kendrick was sitting at $8 to make the 10 last night, hopped on it. Not certain that he’ll make top 10, i think he’ll sit just outside it but decent odds.
ye olde mole
Senior List
- Oct 2, 2013
- 171
- 132
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
I agree with your Kendrick assessment. Top ten wouldn't surprise me, and $8 is good shopping.
I'm giving God is a Freak by Peach some hope of a top ten finish at odds. It was $4.50 but is a bit shorter now.
Tik Tok is not for me, but it's a Tik Tok song.
I'm giving God is a Freak by Peach some hope of a top ten finish at odds. It was $4.50 but is a bit shorter now.
Tik Tok is not for me, but it's a Tik Tok song.
