Triple J Hottest 100 - 2022

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Would love to hear the logic on this one


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Tbf without the ‘each’ it would be a good bet
Sportsbet trying to catch people out?


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Looking at the past couple years warm tunas and their accuracy isn't too bad but I think this year will be a mega clanger. The current count looks more like a double J countdown.
I don’t really agree with WT looking more like a Double J count than previous years, if anything I think there‘s less Double J tracks diluting it than past years. I think the only that may cause WT to be more in accurate this year that others is just how much closer the top tracks are together. Only 200 votes separating the top 5, compare that to the 2020 WT count (which will have a very similar amount of votes counted to this year), which had Heat Waves almost 200 more votes than 2nd.

Looking back at 2019 Rushing Back by Flume had about 400 less votes counted by WT than what Killing In The Name did, which it ended up beating. That WT edition had more votes counted than what this years will, and a better sample size. This year, both Bad Habit and BOTA are within 400 votes of number 1.
 
I don’t really agree with WT looking more like a Double J count than previous years, if anything I think there‘s less Double J tracks diluting it than past years. I think the only that may cause WT to be more in accurate this year that others is just how much closer the top tracks are together. Only 200 votes separating the top 5, compare that to the 2020 WT count (which will have a very similar amount of votes counted to this year), which had Heat Waves almost 200 more votes than 2nd.

Looking back at 2019 Rushing Back by Flume had about 400 less votes counted by WT than what Killing In The Name did, which it ended up beating. That WT edition had more votes counted than what this years will, and a better sample size. This year, both Bad Habit and BOTA are within 400 votes of number 1.
My opinion on what I think is a double j track is different to yours then as I would say at least 10 in the projected top 20 sound like double j songs to me.

Bad habit and bota are of course gonna place higher then the current project no1.
 

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Regarding the closeness of the vote, currently Warm Tunas has just 5 votes separating numbers 7 through to 11. It's a packed field.
 
Stars In My Eyes (BPM) & in the wake of your leave (GoY) to Finish between 6-100 at 4 seems like one of the few decent options on byo.
 
That is horrid odds in my opinion, surely just lay them top 5 at short odds on betfair?
If I was laying, the equivalent odds are 1.33 which no one would take. Also, there isn't a top 5 option on Betfair. I could get close to those odds to miss top 10 but a lot less likely.
 
FYI
Warm Tunas has introduced a Machine Learning algorithm to his results and updated his list. There is also a very detailed article explaining how the ML algorithm works. If you're interested in this stuff it's definitely worth a read.
 
Does the algorithm follow Sportsbets odds?
I didn’t read the whole article and more just skimmed the start, but it seemed it was based on past performance/genre of music.
 
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The ‘At Least two records broken’ stat is most interesting to me. 7 songs from a single artist is paying 1.60 on SB, it’d be a record and Flume currently has 8 in WTs 200. The other could be King Gizz making the countdown with The Dripping Tap, which would destroy the previous record for longest song. Really hope that’s the case.
 

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A couple of other possibilities for the "two massive records"
  • Hilltop Hoods to go past Powderfinger and the Foo Fighters (they would need both their songs to make the 100)
  • most Like a Versions ever
 
Highest Building by Flume dropped quite a way. Wouldn’t have expected that.

Edit: could be wrong but I think there’s only six other likely tracks for him (not including the Sycco track) so unless there’s some surprise inclusions I don’t see him breaking the 6 track record, only equally it.
 
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The ‘At Least two records broken’ stat is most interesting to me. 7 songs from a single artist is paying 1.60 on SB, it’d be a record and Flume currently has 8 in WTs 200. The other could be King Gizz making the countdown with The Dripping Tap, which would destroy the previous record for longest song. Really hope that’s the case.
only 7 for flume.
Ripple [prod. Flume/Chrome Sparks]
Sycco is not a flume song.
 

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