Which team is closer to playing in finals - Carlton, Gold Coast or St Kilda?

Which team do you think has the better list moving forward?

  • Carlton

    Votes: 245 57.2%
  • Gold Coast

    Votes: 45 10.5%
  • St Kilda

    Votes: 138 32.2%

  • Total voters
    428

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I think it's actually pretty disrespectful to ed curnow who has played amazing on the inside and Dow being the best contested teenager in the game I think you're getting a bit ahead of yourself cripps huge numbers are purely because he's ALWAYS first to the ball

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Neither Curnow or Dow would get a game in plenty of other sides.

Curnow is at his best when tagging. He's a ball butcher unfortunately.

Neither are "quality" inside mids. Whether Dow will become one is unproven.
 
I think Saints will surprise next year. I think we will be in the 8 within 2 years. Blues are hard to get a read on. GC would appear to be 5 years from finals.
 

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So you're saying I wouldn't find plenty (and I mean plenty) of posts on BF by Saints supporters talking up Newnes ?
I’m sure with all your free time you could find whatever you want so you could sit behind your computer and say ‘haha I am right’ whilst screaming at your mum to bring in the meatloaf. That’s what it’s all about isn’t it Trav?
 
Calrtons injury list was much greater than saints that's just a cop-out

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where did i say Carlton didnt have injury ?
i said our injurys this year made us look significantly worse than we were from the previous years when we had a much healthier list to work with ... without doubt Carltons year was as bad as it was because they also never really got their best 22 up and running but im not discussing carlton im talking about St Kilda
 
Bfooty is never unanimous ;)

You could have a poll saying Cotchin vs Fyfe and there would be some idiots arguing Cotchin is an elite player!

Cotchin is a better captain. Fyfe better player. Not sure what your point is?? Does that still allow Cotchin to be an elite talent? Start another thread on this topic and I'll contribute there.
 
i think an interesting indication on where things are at is to look at who the teams best players were for last season so going off the latest b&f results and the age demographics for those best players ... compared to the benchmark (being the two teams who made the g/f) Carltons age demographic of their best players should have them in finals now not grabbing wooden spoons ... Gold Coast and St Kilda are in that "in the mix" demographic... so from my mind theres still another drop to go for Carlton before they make their rise.

GCS - Ave Age 25 years
1. Harbrow (30)
2. Miller (22)
3. Weller (22)
4. Thompson (27)
5. Sexton (24)

Carlton - Average age 27.4
1. Cripps (23)
2. Simpson (34)
3. Curnow (21)
3. Curnow (28)
5. Thomas (31)

StK - average age 25.2
1. Steven (28)
2. Ross (25)
3. Steele (22)
4. Gresham (21)
5. Geary(30)

WCE - Ave Age 27
1. Yeo (25)
2. Redden (27)
3. Hurn (31)
4. Cripps (26)
5. Gaff (26)

Collingwood - Ave age 26.2
1. Sidebottom (27)
1. Grundy (24)
3. Pendlebury (30)
4. Crisp (25)
5. Adams (25)
 
i think an interesting indication on where things are at is to look at who the teams best players were for last season so going off the latest b&f results and the age demographics for those best players ... compared to the benchmark (being the two teams who made the g/f) Carltons age demographic of their best players should have them in finals now not grabbing wooden spoons ... Gold Coast and St Kilda are in that "in the mix" demographic... so from my mind theres still another drop to go for Carlton before they make their rise.

GCS - Ave Age 25 years
1. Harbrow (30)
2. Miller (22)
3. Weller (22)
4. Thompson (27)
5. Sexton (24)

Carlton - Average age 27.4
1. Cripps (23)
2. Simpson (34)
3. Curnow (21)
3. Curnow (28)
5. Thomas (31)

StK - average age 25.2
1. Steven (28)
2. Ross (25)
3. Steele (22)
4. Gresham (21)
5. Geary(30)

WCE - Ave Age 27
1. Yeo (25)
2. Redden (27)
3. Hurn (31)
4. Cripps (26)
5. Gaff (26)

Collingwood - Ave age 26.2
1. Sidebottom (27)
1. Grundy (24)
3. Pendlebury (30)
4. Crisp (25)
5. Adams (25)
It’s not your best 5 players that wins you a flag, it’s the best 28-30 that you need over the course of the season to get you through the inevitable injuries.

Carlton is building a great group of players that will come through together.
 
It’s not your best 5 players that wins you a flag, it’s the best 28-30 that you need over the course of the season to get you through the inevitable injuries.

Carlton is building a great group of players that will come through together.
i could have gone further down the list to get the age demographic of the top ten but i couldnt be arsed ... so to me footy really works in somewhat of a cycle (although with FA some teams avoid this) basically you have young teams, old teams and mid rangers... if you are a young team in finals thats great cause you have a big window of time to play finals and possibly grab a flag .. if you are an old team in finals thats also good cause you are in the mode to grab a flag .. if you are a younge team out of the finals towards the bottom thats ok cause your building and the hope is you will move up as you get more experiance.. an old team in the middle to bottom rungs of the ladder is trouble you need to rebuild but you wont do so til you pretty much hit rock bottom .. if you are a mid ranger you are stuck somewhat in limbo if you get a favourble draw you make finals if you have an injury free season you make finals but just as easy the wheels can fall off and you miss finals it comes down to little things that can either push you to the next step (eg you draft a gun player who gives you that extra boost) or send you back down (eg you stuff up your drafting and your best players for drop misses the young guys form improve ...

to me St Kilda are classic mid rangers it could go either way from here
GCS are young and at the bottom , they have hit rock bottom so they can only go up from here
Carlton have some great young players but they rely on their older guys far to much at the moment thats why i think they are headed down again because by the time their younger guys are firing the guys they rely on as older guys will be out the door or on the sharp decline ...
 
Cotchin is a better captain. Fyfe better player. Not sure what your point is?? Does that still allow Cotchin to be an elite talent? Start another thread on this topic and I'll contribute there.
On what basis do you say Cotchin is a better captain? Team success? If it wasn't for Dusty Tiges wouldn't be anywhere close to what they have done so far.

It's a very subjective argument.

Fyfe is a better player though, that's not debatable.
 
I’m sure with all your free time you could find whatever you want so you could sit behind your computer and say ‘haha I am right’ whilst screaming at your mum to bring in the meatloaf. That’s what it’s all about isn’t it Trav?
No the point is you ridiculing St Kilda supporters as nuffies for talking Newnes up when a plethora of Saints fans did it for years.

Perhaps even your good self.
 

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i think an interesting indication on where things are at is to look at who the teams best players were for last season so going off the latest b&f results and the age demographics for those best players ... compared to the benchmark (being the two teams who made the g/f) Carltons age demographic of their best players should have them in finals now not grabbing wooden spoons ... Gold Coast and St Kilda are in that "in the mix" demographic... so from my mind theres still another drop to go for Carlton before they make their rise.

Carlton - Average age 27.4
1. Cripps (23)
2. Simpson (34)
3. Curnow (21)
3. Curnow (28)
5. Thomas (31)

This is a very flawed way of looking at things.

You have given no consideration to the number of games played. These results are heavily weighted towards those who actually managed to get out on the park consistently.

We had just two players feature in every game in 2018 - Cripps, who won the award, and SPS, who finished outside the top 10.

Simpson, Ed Curnow and Wright played 21 games each. No surprise that 2 of them finished inside the top 5, and the other top 10.

Charlie Curnow, Thomas and Dow played 20 each. Two finished inside the top 5, the other is a first year player.

No other player on our list played more than 18 games.

A little bit of context goes a long way. You haven't thought this one through very well.
 
I think Saints will surprise next year. I think we will be in the 8 within 2 years. Blues are hard to get a read on. GC would appear to be 5 years from finals.

I would agree but with richo drunk at the wheel I can't see st kilda improving.

Players like coffield an arces are all class but richo doesn't know how to use them.

Even players like white an rice have gone backwards under richo.
 
So you're saying I wouldn't find plenty (and I mean plenty) of posts on BF by Saints supporters talking up Newnes ?

I don't think anyone expected Newnes to be a superstar but he did gradually improve every year from his debut in 2012 until 2016 however he has stagnated and regressed badly since then. 2017 was the first year he stopped improving and 2018 was his worst year since 2013. I thought he would become a solid 24 disposal per game half back/wingman with a good tank and reliable kick but now he seems devoid of confidence, lacks intensity and doesn't have a clear role in the team but he hasn't missed a game since 2013. I would have happily traded him for a third round pick since we have so many players with more upside in the roles he can play.

In the last year I think you'll almost exclusively find posts from saints fans trying to figure out why he wasn't dropped all season.
 
I don't think anyone expected Newnes to be a superstar but he did gradually improve every year from his debut in 2012 until 2016 however he has stagnated and regressed badly since then. 2017 was the first year he stopped improving and 2018 was his worst year since 2013. I thought he would become a solid 24 disposal per game half back/wingman with a good tank and reliable kick but now he seems devoid of confidence, lacks intensity and doesn't have a clear role in the team but he hasn't missed a game since 2013. I would have happily traded him for a third round pick since we have so many players with more upside in the roles he can play.

In the last year I think you'll almost exclusively find posts from saints fans trying to figure out why he wasn't dropped all season.
Sure, but apparently you were a nuffie if you ever rated him.

Although there's lots of revisionism on BF.
 
St Kilda's woes are two things; their inability to generate scores from their own clearances/disposal chains (they score almost entirely from turnovers) and their inability to convert shots into goals.

This is because in their recruiting they went for big bodied, with the idea being to grind an opposition down with pressure whilst being able to ignore opposition tacklers (kind of a fusion between Brenton Sanderson's Adelaide and Mark Thompson's Geelong) to win the ball free, then sling the ball forward as quickly as possible. Only issue is, either they didn't train adequately for it (these big blokes around the ball neglected to ignore the tackler to find the right option by hand outside a stoppage, becoming huge panic merchants and either coughing it up or handpassing to a neutral position) or the coaching of the midfield left something to be desired; they patch this up, they can begin to score from clearances and thus generate more shots on goal than just those provided by turnovers.

The other side of it is their accuracy. I'd be very interested to see a grid of where St Kilda's forwards take their shots from, contrasted to other sides. Is their poor conversion due to high difficulty angles/distances (taking them from >60 degree angles, 45+ metre distances), is it due to poor technique/routine, or is it both? There's also a huge mental problem at St Kilda, because when they were up their mids don't just hit targets they hit impossible ones, and their forwards kick everything (I'll never get over Billings kicking what, 6.1 against us!) which was how they (hilariously) obliterated Richmond in 2017, but right next to that performance you have lacklustre, downhearted poor form from necessary players causing the entire team to drop their heads. Sure, you can blame Richardson/Geary (it certainly points to a lack of leadership, as far as I'm concerned) but there is a deeper problem here, and one that definitively needs to be addressed before St Kilda move forward.

Ultimately, I could see the Saints make finals next year, off the back of the draw, because Ratten is an exceptional midfield coach, and because you cannot go as poorly as you did this year with the list you have. However, I see St Kilda's list as their main impediment to their flag; too reliant on individuals (Carlisle and Stevens, specifically) to win back and to receive/deliver the ball to a set of forwards (Bruce, Membrey, Billings) to kick for goal. I see them as a 5th-12th team for the next few years, unless they can draft/attract a marquee midfielder of the caliber of Ablett/Judd/Bartel/Kelly to provide difference and dynamism. So, for the purposes of this thread, I reckon St Kilda will make finals first, but if they don't do it soon they'll get eclipsed.
 
GCS - Ave Age 25 years
1. Harbrow (30)
2. Miller (22)
3. Weller (22)
4. Thompson (27)
5. Sexton (24)

Carlton - Average age 27.4
1. Cripps (23)
2. Simpson (34)
3. Curnow (21)
3. Curnow (28)
5. Thomas (31)

StK - average age 25.2
1. Steven (28)
2. Ross (25)
3. Steele (22)
4. Gresham (21)
5. Geary(30)
Replace Simpson with Docherty and the average ages change drastically.

Carlton's best 3 players: Cripps, C Curnow, Docherty - all still improving
Carlton's above average talent: Plowman, M McGovern - the right age
Carlton's young talent who can play at the level: Marchbank, Weitering, SPS, Dow, Fisher, O'Brien, Kennedy, Setterfield, McKay plus Walsh at pick 1

That's a group ready to improve - Curnow CHF, Marchbank CHB, midfield runners with another preseason, bit of skill and speed. I don't think the Saints have 15 improving guys of that quality, nor do the Suns who are a year or two behind. And there's a few others like Williamson and Pickett who might be decent as well.

The big question for Carlton is who is part of their senior core: Murphy, Kreuzer/Phillips, E. Curnow, Thomas, Simpson, Casboult, Jones, Newman and maybe Fasolo. If they don't have at least 5 or 6 of those guys doing a job week in week out - namely ruck, midfield runners, half back organisers/composure and a big body forward or back then forget about how talented the kids are they'll get belted.
 
Replace Simpson with Docherty and the average ages change drastically.

Carlton's best 3 players: Cripps, C Curnow, Docherty - all still improving
Carlton's above average talent: Plowman, M McGovern - the right age
Carlton's young talent who can play at the level: Marchbank, Weitering, SPS, Dow, Fisher, O'Brien, Kennedy, Setterfield, McKay plus Walsh at pick 1

That's a group ready to improve - Curnow CHF, Marchbank CHB, midfield runners with another preseason, bit of skill and speed. I don't think the Saints have 15 improving guys of that quality, nor do the Suns who are a year or two behind. And there's a few others like Williamson and Pickett who might be decent as well.

The big question for Carlton is who is part of their senior core: Murphy, Kreuzer/Phillips, E. Curnow, Thomas, Simpson, Casboult, Jones, Newman and maybe Fasolo. If they don't have at least 5 or 6 of those guys doing a job week in week out - namely ruck, midfield runners, half back organisers/composure and a big body forward or back then forget about how talented the kids are they'll get belted.
Marchbank is a better talent than Plowman.

Will be a gun.
 
This is a very flawed way of looking at things.

You have given no consideration to the number of games played. These results are heavily weighted towards those who actually managed to get out on the park consistently.

We had just two players feature in every game in 2018 - Cripps, who won the award, and SPS, who finished outside the top 10.

Simpson, Ed Curnow and Wright played 21 games each. No surprise that 2 of them finished inside the top 5, and the other top 10.

Charlie Curnow, Thomas and Dow played 20 each. Two finished inside the top 5, the other is a first year player.

No other player on our list played more than 18 games.

A little bit of context goes a long way. You haven't thought this one through very well.
so your older players played more games then anyone else yet thats a flawed process to show their importance to you team ... right....
the fact still remains with West Coast the demographic for their best players was very similar to your age demographic of your best players but they won the flag and you won the spoon ...
 
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