Prediction Who will finish higher - Melbourne, Essendon, Adelaide or Hawthorn

[00Stinger]

Lol your arguments are all over the place. Winning big home and away games has never been our problem. We literally beat more top 8 sides than Melbourne did this year.

Losing to the likes of Carlton, Bulldogs and Fremantle every single year is the problem.

If you are going to use an argument, at least use the correct argument.

Beating bottom teams and winning a final is the problem. Not making finals or winning crunch games during the home and away season. You're talking like we struggle making finals. We've been doing that for years, hence the whole reference to jekyll and hyde.

Tbf I am not sure what big home and away games you are talking about. If you mean a dreamtime game or ANZAC day, then yes that could be the case. If you mean do or die games then no, you haven't. In fact the last big one I can remember is the 09 game when Lloyd snipped Sewell.

I hope you take satisfaction out of beating more top 8 teams during the h&a season than we did. We made the finals and won 2 finals which is the same amount Essendon have won in 15 years (kind of backs up my point of going missing when the heat is on in big games).

You have made the finals 4 times out of 14 years, that is not regularly playing finals. And in those 4 finals only once have you got within 11 goals in a game!

2005 - finished 13th
2006 - 15th
2007 - 12th
2008 - 12th
2009 - 8th (96 point loss in the finals)
2010 - 14th
2011 - 8th (66 point loss in the finals)
2012 - 11th
2013 - cheating
2014 - 7th (12 point loss in the finals)
2015 - 15th
2016 - 18th (a bit unfair as your whole team was suspended)
2017 - 7th (67 point loss in the finals)
2018 - 11th

So my point stands that until Essendon show that they can perform on the big stage (late h&a season mini finals ala v Hawthorn this year or a final there is no way anyone other than bias Essendon supporters could confidently predict that they will finish in the top 4 or above the other 3 teams in this poll/thread).

 

[Ambrosia]

Tbf I am not sure what big home and away games you are talking about. If you mean a dreamtime game or ANZAC day, then yes that could be the case. If you mean do or die games then no, you haven't. In fact the last big one I can remember is the 09 game when Lloyd snipped Sewell.

I hope you take satisfaction out of beating more top 8 teams during the h&a season than we did. We made the finals and won 2 finals which is the same amount Essendon have won in 15 years (kind of backs up my point of going missing when the heat is on in big games).

You have made the finals 4 times out of 14 years, that is not regularly playing finals. And in those 4 finals only once have you got within 11 goals in a game!

2005 - finished 13th
2006 - 15th
2007 - 12th
2008 - 12th
2009 - 8th (96 point loss in the finals)
2010 - 14th
2011 - 8th (66 point loss in the finals)
2012 - 11th
2013 - cheating
2014 - 7th (12 point loss in the finals)
2015 - 15th
2016 - 18th (a bit unfair as your whole team was suspended)
2017 - 7th (67 point loss in the finals)
2018 - 11th

So my point stands that until Essendon show that they can perform on the big stage (late h&a season mini finals ala v Hawthorn this year or a final there is no way anyone other than bias Essendon supporters could confidently predict that they will finish in the top 4 or above the other 3 teams in this poll/thread).

This is idiotic logic. You could write the exact same thing for anyone who predicted Melbourne to rise up the ladder after their 2017 season. The idea you have to wait for something to happen before you can predict it makes no sense .

 

[Trav 20]

Not being a smart arse - but if you are going to include Adelaide since they were in the top 8 when you beat them - have you gone back and checked all that Essendon might have beaten that then fell out of the 8?

Firstly, I included "facts".

Secondly, there's no onus on me to check anything. If you want to dispute your fellow poster's stats on Essendon knock yourself out.

 

[00Stinger]

This is idiotic logic. You could write the exact same thing for anyone who predicted Melbourne to rise up the ladder after their 2017 season. The idea you have to wait for something to happen before you can predict it makes no sense .

No more idiotic than predicting that Essendon would rise up the ladder after their recruiting at the end of 2017 is it?

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[Maxabillions]

Not true.

When we beat Adelaide in round 9 they were in the top 8 entering that game.

You also said 2018, you didn't stipulate the home & away season. After-all, it's not our fault you didn't play finals.

Final tally for 2018: Melbourne 5, Essendon 4.

Essendon beat 6 top 8 teams using that logic

 

[Trav 20]

Essendon beat 6 top 8 teams using that logic

Logic is logic. Facts are facts. Or are you only interested in the make-up of the eight at the end of round 23 ? In which case all of the discussions throughout the year re beating top eight teams were pointless.

List the teams and rounds in which you beat these round eight teams. Although I recognise the hollowness in a season in which you made up the also-rans.

 

[Ambrosia]

No more idiotic than predicting that Essendon would rise up the ladder after their recruiting at the end of 2017 is it?

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Relevance to what I posted?

You don't rate Essendon and won't change your mind unless they prove you wrong. That doesn't mean any prediction for them to finish high up the ladder is entirely due to bias.

 

[Maxabillions]

Logic is logic. Facts are facts. Or are you only interested in the make-up of the eight at the end of round 23 ? In which case all of the discussions throughout the year re beating top eight teams were pointless.

List the teams and rounds in which you beat these round eight teams. Although I recognise the hollowness in a season in which you made up the also-rans.

Ok

R1 Defeated Adelaide (2nd on ladder in previous round, GF 2017)

R4 defeated port Adelaide (1st)

R9 defeated Geelong (3rd)

R14 defeated West Coast (2nd)

R15 defeated North Melbourne (8th)

R19 defeated Sydney (4th)

Not only did we beat top 8 team 6 times, we beat top 4 teams 5 times

 

[00Stinger]

Relevance to what I posted?

You don't rate Essendon and won't change your mind unless they prove you wrong. That doesn't mean any prediction for them to finish high up the ladder is entirely due to bias.

relevance is that my theory is undoubtably flawed, as is yours equally flawed.



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[tommyk72]

Logic is logic. Facts are facts. Or are you only interested in the make-up of the eight at the end of round 23 ? In which case all of the discussions throughout the year re beating top eight teams were pointless.

List the teams and rounds in which you beat these round eight teams. Although I recognise the hollowness in a season in which you made up the also-rans.

I have to admit, while i'm enjoying the banter, I do think the final eight teams is the only relevant measure. Although even after H&A the draw is uneven, it's more uneven after fewer games. Measuring agains the final 8 is the only fair way.

 

[JayJ20]

Not true.

When we beat Adelaide in round 9 they were in the top 8 entering that game.

You also said 2018, you didn't stipulate the home & away season. After-all, it's not our fault you didn't play finals.

Final tally for 2018: Melbourne 5, Essendon 4.

By that logic, we beat Port who were in the top 8 (and we beat them twice), Adelaide in round 1 who just came from a grand final, North Melbourne who were in the top 8 at the time etc. You guys are moving goal posts, but we still beat more top 8 teams. It took you 2 more games to equal our record against top 8 sides.

 

[JayJ20]

Ok

R1 Defeated Adelaide (2nd on ladder in previous round, GF 2017)

R4 defeated port Adelaide (1st)

R9 defeated Geelong (3rd)

R14 defeated West Coast (2nd)

R15 defeated North Melbourne (8th)

R19 defeated Sydney (4th)

Not only did we beat top 8 team 6 times, we beat top 4 teams 5 times

What he said.

 

[JayJ20]

Logic is logic. Facts are facts. Or are you only interested in the make-up of the eight at the end of round 23 ? In which case all of the discussions throughout the year re beating top eight teams were pointless.

List the teams and rounds in which you beat these round eight teams. Although I recognise the hollowness in a season in which you made up the also-rans.

Even by your logic (or fact as you say), sides you beat while they were in the top 8:

North (round 3) - MCG
Adelaide - Traeger Park
West Coast - Perth
GWS - MCG

We beat all of these teams. We beat North at Etihad (their home ground), Adelaide at Etihad (they play more frequently at Etihad), West Coast in Perth (when they only lost the one home game back in round 1) and GWS at Spotless.

All of them were more impressive than Melbourne’s wins (except maybe the Adelaide game).

So tell me what you’re basing your argument on?

 

[BigT]

Firstly, I included "facts".

Secondly, there's no onus on me to check anything. If you want to dispute your fellow poster's stats on Essendon knock yourself out.

Well I guess no point in being reasonable when dealing with imbeciles

Facts have counted against you. EAD

 

[Trav 20]

Ok

R1 Defeated Adelaide (2nd on ladder in previous round, GF 2017)

R4 defeated port Adelaide (1st)

R9 defeated Geelong (3rd)

R14 defeated West Coast (2nd)

R15 defeated North Melbourne (8th)

R19 defeated Sydney (4th)

Not only did we beat top 8 team 6 times, we beat top 4 teams 5 times

Round one doesn't count as obviously no games had been played.

So you finished on 5.

 

[Trav 20]

I have to admit, while i'm enjoying the banter, I do think the final eight teams is the only relevant measure. Although even after H&A the draw is uneven, it's more uneven after fewer games. Measuring agains the final 8 is the only fair way.

No problem.

I didn't create the measure. There was a running commentary in the media throughout the season as to how many top eight teams various sides had beaten.

Or don't you do footy during the year ?

 

[Trav 20]

By that logic, we beat Port who were in the top 8 (and we beat them twice), Adelaide in round 1 who just came from a grand final, North Melbourne who were in the top 8 at the time etc. You guys are moving goal posts, but we still beat more top 8 teams. It took you 2 more games to equal our record against top 8 sides.

Don't even use the word "logic" if you're counting round one, because clearly logic isn't a term you embrace.

 

[Trav 20]

Even by your logic (or fact as you say), sides you beat while they were in the top 8:

North (round 3) - MCG
Adelaide - Traeger Park
West Coast - Perth
GWS - MCG

We beat all of these teams. We beat North at Etihad (their home ground), Adelaide at Etihad (they play more frequently at Etihad), West Coast in Perth (when they only lost the one home game back in round 1) and GWS at Spotless.

All of them were more impressive than Melbourne’s wins (except maybe the Adelaide game).

So tell me what you’re basing your argument on?

OK, so plus finals we're now 6 and your mob finished on 5. Clearly, that's no biggie, but at least we know the "facts".

As for you other little wins, well done you.

 

[00Stinger]

Even by your logic (or fact as you say), sides you beat while they were in the top 8:

North (round 3) - MCG
Adelaide - Traeger Park
West Coast - Perth
GWS - MCG

We beat all of these teams. We beat North at Etihad (their home ground), Adelaide at Etihad (they play more frequently at Etihad), West Coast in Perth (when they only lost the one home game back in round 1) and GWS at Spotless.

All of them were more impressive than Melbourne’s wins (except maybe the Adelaide game).

So tell me what you’re basing your argument on?

so your meaningless h&a wins were more impressive than winning 2 finals?

Which, mind you is the same amount of finals wins your club has managed in 15 years....

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[Trav 20]

so your meaningless h&a wins were more impressive than winning 2 finals?

Which, mind you is the same amount of finals wins your club has managed in 15 years....

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Don't you love it when posters are hoisted by their own petard ?

 

[00Stinger]

Don't you love it when posters are hoisted by their own petard ?

Ah Essendon fans.....still convincing themselves that a win in round 10 over a top 8 team is more impressive than winning a final.





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[tommyk72]

No problem.

I didn't create the measure. There was a running commentary in the media throughout the season as to how many top eight teams various sides had beaten.

Or don't you do footy during the year ?

When was the post posted?

 

[Trav 20]

When was the post posted?

I'm not sure I follow you, however, this conversation began when Jay20 made the following comment on the previous page (post#439).

"We literally beat more top 8 sides than Melbourne did this year."

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...ide-or-hawthorn.1208516/page-18#post-59106919

Is that your question, or am I missing something ?

 

[blitzer]

There's no doubt that Melbourne (and Hawthorn) comfortably had better seasons than us in 2018. Essendon did have some good wins at times but ultimately it was our losses against bottom teams that ended up defining the season.

I've been bullish on Melbourne for years now. In my mind there's only one thing remaining for them to do. Drop the mentally weak tag. Their first half against West Coast was mentally weak (plus the inexplicable losses towards the end of the season when there was a slight chance of them missing the finals). Fix that and they have the talent to go all the way. Its not a question of talent.

We'll see if Essendon has changed as a team not in round 1 against GWS but when we face some of the bottom teams and have to prove that we are a level above.

 

[Sprout]

There's no doubt that Melbourne (and Hawthorn) comfortably had better seasons than us in 2018. Essendon did have some good wins at times but ultimately it was our losses against bottom teams that ended up defining the season.

I've been bullish on Melbourne for years now. In my mind there's only one thing remaining for them to do. Drop the mentally weak tag. Their first half against West Coast was mentally weak (plus the inexplicable losses towards the end of the season when there was a slight chance of them missing the finals). Fix that and they have the talent to go all the way. Its not a question of talent.

We'll see if Essendon has changed as a team not in round 1 against GWS but when we face some of the bottom teams and have to prove that we are a level above.

I understand why people have this perception, including some of our own supporters, but being “mentally weak” is a thing of the past. You can’t attribute every bad day at the office to being “mentally weak”. Richmond were putrid in the first half against Collingwood. Are they mentally weak? Why should we have that label slapped on us due to a previous era? If I thought this side with its totally different makeup was still mentally weak, I’d be pretty concerned. They’re not. They had a poor game.

In retrospect I think our finals series essentially started a couple of weeks early while still trying to qualify. The players ran out of puff against an eventual premiership side playing at home after a week’s rest.