Preview Who will finish higher - Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda or Hawthorn

[WWSD]

Melbourne aren't really good that good like the media make them out to be. Sure the Demons are number one in the league in scoring this year but at the same time they are by far the worst defensive team in the top eight. With their tough games remaining the Demons could possibly miss the finals again.

 

[HeHateMe]

Lol hawks are going to finish highest by default. None of these teams are really demanding it.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[Trav 20]

Melbourne aren't really good that good like the media make them out to be. Sure the Demons are number one in the league in scoring this year but at the same time they are by far the worst defensive team in the top eight. With their tough games remaining the Demons could possibly miss the finals again.

This is a very profound post on the back of a shocking loss by the MFC.

Very insightful and well done.

I give you an 'A' for observation.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Melbourne aren't really good that good like the media make them out to be. Sure the Demons are number one in the league in scoring this year but at the same time they are by far the worst defensive team in the top eight. With their tough games remaining the Demons could possibly miss the finals again.

Highly likely considering their run, and lack of form against teams level or higher than them.

 

[WWSD]

This is a very profound post on the back of a shocking loss by the MFC.

Very insightful and well done.

I give you an 'A' for observation.

Just like the loss to Hawthorn hey? Melbourne are flat track bullies. No wins against the top eight teams so far tells me the Demons ain’t really that good.

 

[Austin_McCrabbs]

Just like the loss to Hawthorn hey? Melbourne are flat track bullies. No wins against the top eight teams so far tells me the Demons ain’t really that good.

They're not even that going by today's effort.

 

[Trav 20]

Just like the loss to Hawthorn hey? Melbourne are flat track bullies. No wins against the top eight teams so far tells me the Demons ain’t really that good.

Once again, your analysis is groundbreaking.

 

[lewdogs]

Once again, your analysis is groundbreaking.

Interested to hear your thoughts on McCartin, who you have roundly stated won't make it.

Thought he was good yesterday.

 

[Cudi_420]

Melbourne aren't really good that good like the media make them out to be. Sure the Demons are number one in the league in scoring this year but at the same time they are by far the worst defensive team in the top eight. With their tough games remaining the Demons could possibly miss the finals again.

Our percentage is still 124% though. 104 ppg vs 83 ppg against. ATM no doubt worst defensive team in the comp over a month but we're also one of the best attacking teams. There is a lack of balance in the team no doubt but all stats look elite. There is one key stat -- opposition efficiency i50 -- that is killing us right now. We're winning the ball, going forward, creating opportunities. We are in a slump. I love how opposition efficiency i50 is such an important stat now. We beat Port and St Kilda and it's an irrelevant stat. I know, we didn't beat them, but that's football.

We'll make the top 8, and comfortably.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Club|Avg Age|Age Rank|Ladder|Diff
\ Ha | 26.18 | 1st | 10th | -9
\Ad|25.86|2nd|11th|-9
\PA|25.70|3rd|5th|-2
\WC|25.65|4th|3rd|+1
\Sy|25.63|5th|4th|+1
\NM|25.59|6th|9th|-3
\Ri|25.41|7th|1st|+6
\Es|25.34|8th|12th|-4
\GWS|25.32|9th|6th|+3
\Ge|25.12|10th|8th|+2
\Co|24.95|11th|2nd|+9
\ Me | 24.91 | 12th | 7th | +5
\Ca|24.59|13th|18th|-5
\Fr|24.58|14th|13th|+1
\ St | 24.36 | 15th | 15th | -
\Br|24.25|16th|17th|-1
\GC|24.09|17th|16th|+1
\ WB | 23.42 | 18th | 14th | +4

The oldest team sitting out of the eight at this stage of the season rings alarm bells, though it wasn't unforeseeable after last year. Not sure their position is salvageable through imports and they may need to go back to the draft for the next Hodge, Roughead, Franklin etc.

Melbourne and the Dogs have cause for optimism and even St.Kilda are not badly placed to go forward if they can get a few things right. They need a kickstart via a Josh Kelly type, followed by a bumper draft crop.

 

[hk89]

While Hawthorn have a relatively easy run home from here on paper, I think we'll struggle to get back in the 8. The main issue is that at least 3 of the teams that have looked like easy kills a few weeks ago are starting to look a bit tougher, namely Essendon, Bulldogs and Saints no longer look like games we can be fairly comfortable about, and still having to play Geelong and Swans, I can easily see us not getting the required wins.

It is quite possible none of the 4 teams in the thread title will play finals, which I'd not have picked at the start of the season.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Club|Avg Age|Age Rank|Ladder|Diff
\ Ha | 26.18 | 1st | 10th | -9
\Ad|25.86|2nd|11th|-9
\PA|25.70|3rd|5th|-2
\WC|25.65|4th|3rd|+1
\Sy|25.63|5th|4th|+1
\NM|25.59|6th|9th|-3
\Ri|25.41|7th|1st|+6
\Es|25.34|8th|12th|-4
\GWS|25.32|9th|6th|+3
\Ge|25.12|10th|8th|+2
\Co|24.95|11th|2nd|+9
\ Me | 24.91 | 12th | 7th | +5
\Ca|24.59|13th|18th|-5
\Fr|24.58|14th|13th|+1
\ St | 24.36 | 15th | 15th | -
\Br|24.25|16th|17th|-1
\GC|24.09|17th|16th|+1
\ WB | 23.42 | 18th | 14th | +4

The oldest team sitting out of the eight at this stage of the season rings alarm bells, though it wasn't unforeseeable after last year. Not sure their position is salvageable through imports and they may need to go back to the draft for the next Hodge, Roughead, Franklin etc.

Melbourne and the Dogs have cause for optimism and even St.Kilda are not badly placed to go forward if they can get a few things right. They need a kickstart via a Josh Kelly type, followed by a bumper draft crop.

There’s a fair chance Hawthorn might be even older again in 2019 with a couple of FA’s...

Kind of find it odd that analysis would be focused on age of a group, especially considering only percentage separates so many teams.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Kind of find it odd that analysis would be focused on age of a group, especially considering only percentage separates so many teams.

These are the post-war teams > 26 that missed the finals.

Year|Club|Ladder|Avg Age
\2017|Ha|12th|26.14
\2012|St|9th|26.35
\2009|Sy|12th|26.10
\2007|Fr|11th|26.02
\1989|Br|10th|26.32
\1989|Sy|7th|26.46
\1988|Br|13th|26.09
\1988|Sy|7th|26.17
\1983|Ri|10th|26.18

With the notable exception of Sydney 2009, those years preceded bleak periods for the clubs concerned. Clarko's an exceptional coach but I'm not sure even he's good enough to keep it afloat. Not enough coming through at the bottom end.

 

[Trav 20]

Interested to hear your thoughts on McCartin, who you have roundly stated won't make it.

Thought he was good yesterday.

He was OK. Certainly compared to what he'd been dishing up.

The Saints clean F50 entries made it far easier for their forwards.

 

[Bardo State]

These are the post-war teams > 26 that missed the finals.

Year|Club|Ladder|Avg Age
\2017|Ha|12th|26.14
\2012|St|9th|26.35
\2009|Sy|12th|26.10
\2007|Fr|11th|26.02
\1989|Br|10th|26.32
\1989|Sy|7th|26.46
\1988|Br|13th|26.09
\1988|Sy|7th|26.17
\1983|Ri|10th|26.18

With the notable exception of Sydney 2009, those years preceded bleak periods for the clubs concerned. Clarko's an exceptional coach but I'm not sure even he's good enough to keep it afloat. Not enough coming through at the bottom end.

List management is a bit different now, though. Adding talent doesn't have to be as costly as going to the draft repeatedly or finding fair vale trades. Hawthorn's list is obviously targeting 2019/20. The opportunity to do something like add Lynch and Sloane to a mid-ladder list that is already challenging the top teams for only salary cap space hasn't been an option until relatively recently.

You can look at the players dragging up that average (>28 y.o)

Brendan Whitecross - 28 - Depth player/Reserves leadership
Cyril Rioli - 28 - Future uncertain. Elite when playing.
Ben McEvoy - 28 - Key player, may have a good 5 years ahead of him. Unlikely to decline or retire soon.
Ben Stratton - 29 - Important first 18 backline player
Isaac Smith - 29 - Important first 18 wing
James Frawley - 29 - Important first 18 KPD
Ricky Henderson - 29 - On the fringes of the 22, ideally only a depth player over the next 2 years
Grant Birchall - 30 - Seen almost no football in 2 years
Paul Puopolo - 30 - Very decent role player, likely replaceable, likely to decline in coming years
Jarryd Roughead - 31 - Captain, no longer a star after his cancer, likely to decline without ready made replacement on the list
Shaun Burgoyne - 35 - Class player, still contributes but facing more regular injuries, has to be managed, possibly his last season

So the coaching staff obviously had to make a call about whether they wanted to do a harder rebuild or try and get something out of the group of Rioli, McEvoy, Stratton, Smith, Frawley, Birchall, Puopolo and Roughead before they move on or significantly decline. The coaching staff seems to have chosen the latter given the types of depth players being kept on the list (Henderson (29), Whitecross (28), Schoenmakers (27), Mirra (27), Langford (25)).

So then the question becomes, what would it take for the current Hawthorn side to contest a premiership? Well how far off are they compared to current contenders? They beat Collingwood, Geelong, Melbourne and Port Adelaide and lost by under 15 points to Richmond, Sydney, West Coast and GWS. So they need improvement but not groundbreaking improvement. I think it's possible with internal improvement, the above group of older players maintaining their form, greater familiarity with the new midfield group and some ambitious off-season additions over the next two off seasons.

It appears to me that the club are willing to face a cliff in 2020 before building for ~2023 around Mitchell, O'Meara, Gunston, Sicily etc in order to challenge for a flag. I'd say it's likely that Clarkson retires after this next tilt.

 

[Ron The Bear]

List management is a bit different now, though.
...

I'm only counting players on game day, e.g. Birchall hasn't contributed to the figures this year. The team on the park is quite old, relative to other teams.

Mitchell, O'Meara, Henderson and Impey in the last two years have stopped Hawthorn from plummeting, but that's all. Only Sicily and Burton among the 24 debutants under 22 since 2013 have proven to above average so far. The team still gives a professional Hawthorn effort, but it no longer strikes fear into the opposition.

Agree with your point that clubs are much smarter these days. Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney have led the way in avoiding the traditional boom-bust cycle. It will be interesting to see whether Hawthorn's aura of success remains strong enough to lure Lynch.

After saying that, Hawthorn may well reel off the next five and make a push for the top four. I kinda hope they do.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

These are the post-war teams > 26 that missed the finals.

Year|Club|Ladder|Avg Age
\2017|Ha|12th|26.14
\2012|St|9th|26.35
\2009|Sy|12th|26.10
\2007|Fr|11th|26.02
\1989|Br|10th|26.32
\1989|Sy|7th|26.46
\1988|Br|13th|26.09
\1988|Sy|7th|26.17
\1983|Ri|10th|26.18

With the notable exception of Sydney 2009, those years preceded bleak periods for the clubs concerned. Clarko's an exceptional coach but I'm not sure even he's good enough to keep it afloat. Not enough coming through at the bottom end.

I still think that table is just extrapolating out a hell of a lot from some ages, without much context.

 

[Ron The Bear]

I still think that table is just extrapolating out a hell of a lot from some ages, without much context.

Yeah, it's very simple and plenty of people take exception when the numbers paint their team in a bad light. But when you're at the top of that table, you almost invariably need to be in contention.

 

[Tulip]

We'll steal a couple of wins from here, I have us finishing 11-11. Whether we or Hawthorn finish higher is academic, don't think either team would cause any damage in the finals. The real difference is in the box. Imagine what Clarkson could do with Melbourne's list and a pre-season. On the other hand, I don't think Goodwin would win many at all with this ragtag Hawthorn list - he simply doesn't demand excellence. He called losing to St Kilda "a blip in the road", as if the previous two weeks didn't happen.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Yeah, it's very simple and plenty of people take exception when the numbers paint their team in a bad light. But when you're at the top of that table, you almost invariably need to be in contention.

So, as I was saying the number don’t mean much without context.

Take the loss against the Lions out of the equation and Hawthorn are 6th on the ladder with a better record against the other top 8 teams than half the sides in there.

It’s very easy to say Hawthorn sit outside the 8 and they’re old, and it’s not wrong....but it’s very simplistic.

 

[Ron The Bear]

So, as I was saying the number don’t mean much without context.

Take the loss against the Lions out of the equation and Hawthorn are 6th on the ladder with a better record against the other top 8 teams than half the sides in there.

It’s very easy to say Hawthorn sit outside the 8 and they’re old, and it’s not wrong....but it’s very simplistic.

Now you need to omit two Brisbane losses to maintain your position. In the last two years Hawthorn has lost to

2018 R17 Br +1.91
2018 R9 Br +1.32
2018 R8 Sy +1.16
2017 R22 Ca +1.33
2017 R12 GC +1.04
2017 R9 Co +1.40
2017 R3 GC +2.79
2017 R2 Ad +1.76
2017 R1 Es +1.59

...plus another 7 defeats in the +0.5 to +1.0 bracket, with the only wins as the (very marginally) younger team being

2018 R13 Ad -0.006
2017 R5 WC -0.004

A lesser club wouldn't still be fighting for a finals spot, but those are the numbers of a team going over the cliff.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Now you need to omit two Brisbane losses to maintain your position. In the last two years Hawthorn has lost to

2018 R17 Br +1.91
2018 R9 Br +1.32
2018 R8 Sy +1.16
2017 R22 Ca +1.33
2017 R12 GC +1.04
2017 R9 Co +1.40
2017 R3 GC +2.79
2017 R2 Ad +1.76
2017 R1 Es +1.59

...plus another 7 defeats in the +0.5 to +1.0 bracket, with the only wins as the younger team being

2018 R13 Ad -0.006
2017 R5 WC -0.004

A lesser club wouldn't still be fighting for a finals spot., but those are the numbers of a team going over the cliff.

Lol what? No I don’t.

Brisbane smacked us because we kept handing them the ball. Good on them.

9 of their 11 goals to 3qtr time were from turnovers.

Find me a stat that says Lions won because they’re younger?

 

[Ron The Bear]

Lol what? No I don’t.

Brisbane smacked us because we kept handing them the ball. Good on them.

9 of their 11 goals to 3qtr time were from turnovers.

Find me a stat that says Lions won because they’re younger?

Now you're over-simplifying it. The combined weight of results says Hawthorn has lost it. Ding dong, the witch is dead.

Big spending spree or an assault on the draft required. And the former isn't guaranteed to keep the Hawks afloat.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Now you're over-simplifying it. The combined weight of results says Hawthorn has lost it. Ding dong, the witch is dead.

Big spending spree or an assault on the draft required. And the former isn't guaranteed to keep the Hawks afloat.

Mate, you’re obsessed by age and disregarding stats that actually matter.

9 goals from 11, scored from turnover. Hawthorn could have an average age of 24, that’s still a loss just waiting to happen.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Mate, you’re obsessed by age and disregarding stats that actually matter.

9 goals from 11, scored from turnover. Hawthorn could have an average age of 24, that’s still a loss just waiting to happen.

You didn't like the numbers first time around and I don't expect you to like them now. But since you posted a response while I was suspended, it's only fair to point it out when subsequent results support my contention. I really should do it more often.