Will Goodwin make it to 300 games?

[Vader]

as players get older, injuries tend to set in very quickly there is not a slow predictable curve on the horizon. His past performance doesn't tell us *too* much about what is likely to happen, as he has never played as 34/35 year old.

how many games would he likely need to miss, to have to play on in 2012?

He needs to play 41. There's 44 H&A matches + an unknown number of finals to be played. If we assume 2 finals per year, then he'd have to play a minimum of 41 out of 48 possible games.

We're in 100% agreement that injuries can rapidly bring an end to a player's career at Goodwin's age. A poor injury history is a good indicator that a player is likely to continue having injury problems. However, the converse is not necessarily true - a good history does not necessarily indicate a good future.

 

[aneale]

I'm not convinced he will, I'd like to think he will but players can deteriorate quickly when they get around the milestone if they get certain injuries, Roo and Benny looked like world beaters at 300, bet none of us thought they would finish on just 311 and 312 after their 300th's. It makes Macca's effort to nudge 350 and declare he will play next year all the more amazing.

 

[crowralph]

roo deterioted rapidly from one of the all time great 300ths. my memory may be a bit off, but i thought hart could have gone on again and still been servicable though. i definately think goody's a chance. having had 2 compromised drafts in 2010 and 2011, and seen (i think) a few 17yo's taken before the draft, i reckon there will be more value in older players and 'list cloggers'. provided he players at least 15 games each year and his form is ok and crows still in contention, there is a reasonable chance he could still get a gig for 2012. so if he doesn't make it by end 2011, then i'm not ruling out him playing in 2012. i see it as being pretty close to an even money bet.

 

[ringo200]

We can't afford to have McLeod, Edwards, Goodwin all retire at the same time (unless their form gives us no choice) and Goodwin seems most likely to go onto 2011 on last years form so depending on injuries I think he is a good chance to make it.

 

[amer]

The word is he's free of them at present but Goody has had a number of nasty niggles crop up in the past three years or so. Was close to missing blocks of footy in both 2008 and 2009.

 

[RealSlimShady]

Yep, he'll be the only one left for use next year unless its he and Edwards

Someone convert to English for me, please?