Will the Dees plateau next year?

[Spanish_Fly]

This is not a troll, please read through the full post before getting all worked up.

I think it is not unreasonable to expect Melbourne to plateau a little next year, maybe even take a slight step back before really pushing on the following year. IMO you guys really relied on your core group of older players this year to deliver a consistency of performance (Green, Davey, Sylvia, McDonald, Bruce, Jamar, Moloney etc), whilst your younger guys with the excepton of Frawley and grimes when he played were mostly the bit part or 10-22 ranked players who didn't have to compete on the best players in the comp week in week out as the senior players shouldered that Burden.

There is a big difference for a young player (Scully for example) playing on another young player or having to play on the oppositions better players. Take for example the game you guys played against us Tigers at the start of this year, Scully played mostly on Nason if I remember correctly whilst Martin really struggled against the experienced McDonald for most of the game. Please do not take this as a critisism its not meant to be.

So, I believe that in 2011 your younger players will start to stand up and take more responsibility, this will mean they will spend a lot more game time playing on the senior players from opposition clubs and this will take time to get used to. This is a step you need to take at some stage because as well as some of them performed this year your senior players are not good enough to carry your side to the top 4, you will become a top 4 team when Scully, Grimes, Jurrah, Trengrove, McKenzie etc are your best players. You will need to make a transition at some point to these younger guys being your best players and playing on the oppostions best players.

In summation, I think it not unlikely that you guys don't improve in terms of win/loss this year, whilst at the same time taking a huge step forwards by making that transition. This will put you in a better position moving forwards to really become a top team. So don't get too downhearted demon fans if your club appears to stagnate this year, as this may be exactly what you need for the long term.

Having said all that, if you can make that transition and still move forward in win/loss then even better.

Cheers.

 

[Supermercado]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

It's definitely a concern, we've got to be more consistent winning games rather than getting them in bursts and then going missing for a month.

And no losing to shitful teams like the Eagles at home.

 

[cannons]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

Yeah, a very reasonable and well constructed post.

When you consider that we have a young list that is likely to yield inconsistent results for the next year or so, it is quite conceivable that we won't improve that much next year. Throw in the loss of some older guys such as McDonald, Bruce and, to a lesser extent, Miller, and not only have we lost a lot of experience but also, as you say, the younger guys need to step up more quickly than they otherwise would.

That's why I'm inclined to disagree with those in the 'pass mark' thread calling finals a bare minimum level of achievement for next season. It's really hard, at this point, to tell how the pieces of the puzzle will fit together in 2011.

 

[master bate]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

For us to improve I think it will take 4 things:

1. Jamar and Frawley AA or close again.
2. The midfield to get better despite the loss of McDonald.
3. No more injuries than we had last year (that said Grimes, Sylvia, Jurrah, Morton, Petterd, McDonald missed large parts)
4. Some lesser names to shine like Dunn, Bartram and Bail did this year. Maric, Jetta, Tapscott, Strauss, Gysberts all possibilities.

Of those I think number 2 will be the hardest one as well as the least likely to happen. A lot revolves around Moloney, Sylvia and Davey in form. Get those 3 firing and we have a base for Scully, Trengove and McKenzie to play good footy. After that question will be who does our tagging or who is capable of sharing it. McDonald did a lot of good jobs on a lot of dangerous players this year. Jones wasn't so good. I'm still a fan of Dunn tagging but he's been built up this preseason so it looks like that won't happen. I'd love to poach a Sharrod Wellingham in the rookie draft.

 

[eskimo]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

The loss of McDonald will be the hardest to replace, but we do have a direct replacement in McKenzie there. He is right in the mould of McDonald, and can step into his shoes. I hope this doesn't come off as disrespectful, but we must remember that JMac was only just a footballer. He wasn't a superstar. He did his job every week, and did it well, but it isn't like replacing Hird or Carey or anything like that. So the biggest loss in that regard is experience. We are fortunate that the core of younger players this year played most of the year together, so effectively we will only be bringing in two or three new players.

It certainly isn't an outrageous suggestion that we may plateau or even drop off a little bit, but I honestly don't believe we will. Scully, Trengove, McKenzie, et al have played a season of footy together, and with a full preseason under their belt this, as well as a focus on them doing the job will only aid in their progress. Sculls and Trenners are so determined to be great footballers that I see them really relishing the challenge

 

[Captain Jack]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

I think we will improve naturally in that our best football will be better as the youngsters step up. Think the Sydney game - hopefully we can play that well a couple of times, and hopefully against teams near or above us on the ladder (i.e. Sydney last year). The problem will still be consistency - it will take time for the gap between our best and our worst to get signifcantly smaller.

So we should play more good football, but in between there will still be frustrating patches of MFC circa-2009.

 

[Tulip]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

This is not a troll, please read through the full post before getting all worked up.

I think it is not unreasonable to expect Melbourne to plateau a little next year, maybe even take a slight step back before really pushing on the following year. IMO you guys really relied on your core group of older players this year to deliver a consistency of performance (Green, Davey, Sylvia, McDonald, Bruce, Jamar, Moloney etc), whilst your younger guys with the excepton of Frawley and grimes when he played were mostly the bit part or 10-22 ranked players who didn't have to compete on the best players in the comp week in week out as the senior players shouldered that Burden.

There is a big difference for a young player (Scully for example) playing on another young player or having to play on the oppositions better players. Take for example the game you guys played against us Tigers at the start of this year, Scully played mostly on Nason if I remember correctly whilst Martin really struggled against the experienced McDonald for most of the game. Please do not take this as a critisism its not meant to be.

So, I believe that in 2011 your younger players will start to stand up and take more responsibility, this will mean they will spend a lot more game time playing on the senior players from opposition clubs and this will take time to get used to. This is a step you need to take at some stage because as well as some of them performed this year your senior players are not good enough to carry your side to the top 4, you will become a top 4 team when Scully, Grimes, Jurrah, Trengrove, McKenzie etc are your best players. You will need to make a transition at some point to these younger guys being your best players and playing on the oppostions best players.

In summation, I think it not unlikely that you guys don't improve in terms of win/loss this year, whilst at the same time taking a huge step forwards by making that transition. This will put you in a better position moving forwards to really become a top team. So don't get too downhearted demon fans if your club appears to stagnate this year, as this may be exactly what you need for the long term.

Having said all that, if you can make that transition and still move forward in win/loss then even better.

Cheers.

Said this the whole off season: Agree with your post and think it'll be good for the club

 

[RandB]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

Fair enough to the OP it isn't out of the realms of possibility that we finish somewhere similar on the ladder in 2011. I don't think our competitiveness will necessarily drop but it will be a tight competition and I don't think we'll yet be good enough to seperate ourselves from that.

I think ironically Richmond is in a similar situation especially if Hardwick makes their gameplan a little more regimented than last year which means they will have to adapt a little.

In the other thread I went with 10+ wins as a pass mark. We have to remember how competitive our draw is so unlike this year where good performances went unrewarded (Pies, Bulldogs) on the ladder we could be in a situation where not so good performances are rewarded.

IMO we won't miss McDonald but Bruce's absence will show a fair bit next year before our current and new defenders have a set plan/chemistry. Yeah, yeah, hospital passes and poor kicking but he played a sweeper role which often got us out of trouble - we definitely could have done with 1 more year but it's done.

The thing we have to understand is that our young guys didn't just come to terms with AFL football this year but more importantly the Bailey game plan at AFL level - a gameplan which arguably only reared it's head this year. Yes, McDonald had a great year this year as a stalwart giving it one last shot but his condusiveness to the Bailey gameplan was nothing out of this world, he just had an old fashioned dip - he chased and tackled like a trooper and got a fair bit of it but neither he or his link play was quick enough - he was an individual who shone out in some areas among kids who were learning a team interaction. You can't just use McDonald in 2010 as a sole indicator, you have to look at McDonald in 2011 to judge his viability - he's covered.

So from this pov we won't miss experience just for the sake of it if it is not relevant to our direction. We have enough senior players and mid tier players to help out (just).

Areas for concern are our rucks and how we play some of the more versatile players around the ground. We won't collectively drop our guard but we will suffer in games if we don't get some of our mobile talls eg Morton playing purposefull football in a role they are comfortable in.

Getting equal output across the ground will be our challenge in 2011 as well as adapting to the sub rule which every club faces.

I can't see us plateauing as a team wrt our competitiveness but it could still be a bit of a raffle where we finish. Hopfully 2012 on our destiny is more of a safer bet wrt finals.

 

[Fairtex]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

Said this the whole off season: Agree with your post and think it'll be good for the club

Going backwards? How so?

 

[cannons]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

Going backwards? How so?

I think he means that whilst we won't necessarily improve our ladder position, the fact that the younger players will be forced to take on more responsibility and play on better players will only be beneficial for the future.

 

[Spanish_Fly]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

The thing we have to understand is that our young guys didn't just come to terms with AFL football this year but more importantly the Bailey game plan at AFL level - a gameplan which arguably only reared it's head this year. Yes, McDonald had a great year this year as a stalwart giving it one last shot but his condusiveness to the Bailey gameplan was nothing out of this world, he just had an old fashioned dip - he chased and tackled like a trooper and got a fair bit of it but neither he or his link play was quick enough - he was an individual who shone out in some areas among kids who were learning a team interaction. You can't just use McDonald in 2010 as a sole indicator, you have to look at McDonald in 2011 to judge his viability - he's covered.

So from this pov we won't miss experience just for the sake of it if it is not relevant to our direction. We have enough senior players and mid tier players to help out (just).

Although I agree with the points quoted I think you guys may underestimate the impact of McDonalds loss next year. I don't think his loss has any medium to long term impact but next year I think it may impact a bit.

MacDonald played on the oppositions best player almost every week, from what I saw, and you can rely upon an even contest and solid contribution from him in that role every week. With him gone now it sort of slides everyone else along into a higher bracket in terms of all the matchups, losing the No.1 player in any area (Def/Mid/Attack) has a knock on effect down the line that everone then has to move one step along and play against better opposition.

If you then have games where say Davey and Moloney are out, all of a sudden you have Trengrove, Scully, Mckenzie, Jones playing on Sewell, Hodge, Mitchell and Rioli for example and the young guys will need more time to really stand up against these top players. Its a lot different scenario to coming in as the 4th, 5th & 6th midfielders in the rotation and playing on say Ellis, Lewis, Ladson or Moss. Your young guys will get used to it soon enough but it is hurdle that needs to be overcome.

 

[Rudeurrection]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

No, no we wont.

 

[StingaArmstrong]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

I can see us being around the same ladder position as last year. If our top 10 players get fullish seasons we might push the 8, but if we get injuries to important players like Sylvia, Davey, Jamar etc. the we'll struggle.

We just need to keep getting as much game time and development of players that are under 50 games on our list (or ranked 10-30 on the list). Once the majority of our best 22 get over 100 games under their belt then we should be challenging.

 

[RandB]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

MacDonald played on the oppositions best player almost every week, from what I saw, and you can rely upon an even contest and solid contribution from him in that role every week.

McDonald definitely had that ability to shut a player down, probably more so than our other developed mids but attack comes first and we couldn't afford to keep him there with the queue we have of youngsters. Jones was actually moved around the ground a bit this year quite possibly because there wasn't enough room in the guts (where he IMO plays better). He now gets that chance back.

McKenzie is a rare talent at the style of footy he plays and now that we have Viney on board our mids should improve a fair bit.

If you then have games where say Davey and Moloney are out, all of a sudden you have Trengrove, Scully, Mckenzie, Jones playing on Sewell, Hodge, Mitchell and Rioli for example and the young guys will need more time to really stand up against these top players.

Well we have Sylvia I suppose and Grimes who has proven quite dependable in defence coming through and I dare say Bennell (who is getting a lot more solid and should go up another notch) and Bail may have stints as well.

Importantly these guys are filling out atm as well, next year Bail turns 23, Grimes turns 22 and Bennell and McKenzie turn 21. Jetta and Maric 21 next year will provide the competition for spots and will be expected to be able to rotate midfield as well IMO. As long as say McKenzie can have that similar impact McDonald had I reckon we should be ok.

In the games where McDonald was out this year we managed a draw against Collingwood, beat Essendon and flogged the Swans so we can be competitive against a range of different midfields, the away losses are a different issue.

 

[Cudi_420]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

While playing finals would help this club IMMENSLEY in promoting its new brand, I have never, ever been overly confident that we'll be playing finals next year. I'm optimistic for a 6th-10th finish.

 

[stickman11]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

Bruce is overrated.

 

[KickLongTackleHard]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

I definately think we will miss the versatility of Bruce, and the example set by Macca. Both were able to play important shut down roles when needed and I think the coaching box loses an option with both of them gone. For me it depends on who and how many of our young players step up, but it could be the final year of putting games into youngsters like Blease, Gysberts, Bail and maybe Strauss and Maric. I expect the same output from Jamar, Moloney, Green but Davey and Sylvia need solid consistent seasons. It's going to be an exciting, interesting 2011 and I hope we can make the 8.

 

[Fairtex]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

Im starting to think that maybe next year might be a bit of a failed season... it might take us one year to get over the loses of J.Mac and Bruce.. Perhaps...

 

[Ghost of Grinter]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

We will make finals, that much IM very confident of.

We wont plateau at all, we were dead stiff not to beat Collingwood
twice and other games we shoudlve won.

Also being hit hard by injuries didnt help, Grimes was our best
player till he got injured, Davey likewise.

Scully will step it up and its hard to see Trengove not improving
on his debut season, which ran out of steam towards the end of
the year.

We debuted kids that will be better prepared for the rigours of AFL
and we still had a decent year.

Jurrah will play more footy, Watts will be far better prepared for what
is expected of him - and barring injury, will definatley have a better year.

Moloney can improve on his year, Garland, Rivers are now settled in
after being in and out through injury, Rivers coming off another good
solid year, will be ready to really step it up and help Frawley out, who
will also have Jack Grimes taking pressure off.

Frawley will have another good year - hopefully - but with players back
in and playing better football down back, we wont rely on chip as much.

All going well, Spencer will give Jamar far better support than he got in
2010 and Jamar should be able to maintain form and conserve himself.

Sylvia is apparently flying and Jones training the house down, so Id
expect those 2 will have good years.

Too much upside for us to Plateau, we will make finals and I think we
will play a part in the finals, we have a good mix of kids and Im expecting
massive inroads to be made in 2011.

position: 4-8..

 

[d33my]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

A little gripe of mine, I don't think it's anything to hang our hat on that we nearly beat Collingwood twice...remember we lost to West Coast.

What I'm getting at is I want to see consistency, not flashes of brilliance. We all know we have tonnes of raw talent at our disposal. Let's make sure we develop it.

 

[Captain Jack]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

A little gripe of mine, I don't think it's anything to hang our hat on that we nearly beat Collingwood twice...remember we lost to West Coast.

What I'm getting at is I want to see consistency, not flashes of brilliance. We all know we have tonnes of raw talent at our disposal. Let's make sure we develop it.

This is what I'm saying. We lost to WC at home, twice to North, only just held off both Brisbane and Port (albeit interstate) and when our season was on the line against Hawthorn, Port and North we folded when we needed to stand up and have a crack. So just keep a lid on it.

 

[Gazza_11]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

It's kind of hard to say. We were about 5 goals away from making the finals this year, with really tight losses/draws to Collingwood, Footscray, Hawthorn, Fremantle and North (round 22). That's another 22 points we could have had this season, which would have boosted us into 5 on the ladder.

That would have been a poor reflection of dismal efforts against sides we should have been competitive against, ala North (Round 6), West Coast, Carlton, Adelaide (Split Round) and Port (Round 21).

Then you remember that we thrashed a few teams as well, in Sydney, Brisbane and Richmond (And to a degree Essendon). We held our nerve against Port, despite allowing them heaps of junk time goals. And we took it up to the Saints in Round 15 despite a few injuries in that game, and were more competitive against Geelong than most other sides, at Skilled too.

Looking at our draw, that will probably mean we improve next year. Although we have to be wary of our youngsters looking underdone like they did in a few games this year (West Coast).

 

[Dez!]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

Don't subscribe to the theory, Junior was good this year but when he was out we played just as well if not better.

Not insinuating that Junior held us back in any way but more to the fact that we have players who while may be young are prepared to step up when need be.

Bruce was a mixed bag, shit in the first half of the season but extremely good in the second half. I loved Brucey as a player but he is replaceable and I think we've got the players needed to do it.

Far too much focus is put on our supposed "older players holding us up", that argument couldn't be further from the truth. Our improvement has come through the hard work and determination of the young players easing the load on the "older" heads.

I'd be shocked if we went backwards.

 

[Deefolt]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

Don't subscribe to the theory, Junior was good this year but when he was out we played just as well if not better.

Not insinuating that Junior held us back in any way but more to the fact that we have players who while may be young are prepared to step up when need be.

Bruce was a mixed bag, shit in the first half of the season but extremely good in the second half. I loved Brucey as a player but he is replaceable and I think we've got the players needed to do it.

Far too much focus is put on our supposed "older players holding us up", that argument couldn't be further from the truth. Our improvement has come through the hard work and determination of the young players easing the load on the "older" heads.

I'd be shocked if we went backwards.

Personally I think the improvement come from his idea to move clubs. He needed to impress.

 

[Captain Jack]

Re: Will the Dees Plateau next year

\
Far too much focus is put on our supposed "older players holding us up", that argument couldn't be further from the truth. Our improvement has come through the hard work and determination of the young players easing the load on the "older" heads.

Strong point is strong.