Draft Watcher Young Talent Time 2017

[Richo83]

I haven't seen much underage football thisyear but Brayshaw's athleticism is pretty good for a "vanilla" player.

 

[GoGrows]

Keep hearing how "committed" Higgins is.

"noone is more committed"

"Higgins hired a personal trainer"

"Higgins does extra training drills during the week"

etc etc


Guess what, the kid quit school. He has a s**t load more time than anyone else. Of course he can spend more time on his football. Does that mean he is more committed? No. He just made the, some might say, silly decision to quit school and put all his eggs in the footy basket.

So yes, Higgins is doing extra training drills but that is because he doesnt have year 12 exams to worry about.

I would not be giving him extra kudos for that.

An AFL prospect being able to handle all that comes with their footy in their draft yr as well as the workload of year 12 is far more impressive to me than someone who quit school and hired a personal trainer.

If im going to analyse that at all id argue that Higgins should have dominated he draft yr (as he did). He's essentially got a 1yr leg up on the others with regards to extra development etc.

 

[Chris25]

Guess what, the kid quit school. He has a s**t load more time than anyone else. Of course he can spend more time on his football. Does that mean he is more committed? No. He just made the, some might say, silly decision to quit school and put all his eggs in the footy basket.

Exactly. He has to succeed at football because he has nothing else. If that isn't extra motivation, then I don't know what is.

Quitting school and training for football isn't something I'd recommend. But having extra time or not, the commitment can't be questioned. Foolish or not.

 

[GoGrows]

Exactly. He has to succeed at football because he has nothing else. If that isn't extra motivation, then I don't know what is.

Not really. You can still quite easily get into uni without completing year 12.

If his career ended in the next 12 months its not like he cant do anything else with his life because he didnt complete year 12.

Whether its a good idea or not to finish yr 12 is not the point here, its simply that he has been able to focus more on his footy this yr than the others. That wont be the case next year. So it certainly helps explain why he did so well this yr, he got a leg up with being able to do stuff others didnt have time to do.

I dont think that means he has extra drive or desire or anything like that which will result in more of a chance of success at the next level. I do think his decision helped him have some extra success at the u18 level.

 

[chels]

A draft is a market with order being the clearing price. Buyers / clubs have different views just as investors use different algorythms in (say) a sharemarket. An example, the kid who has developed more and is heavier and stronger; some value his ability to break tackles highly, others discount that ability as a byproduct of earlier development. If everyone had the same approach to valuation of draftees there would be no discussion of attributes.

 

[briztoon]

Not really. You can still quite easily get into uni without completing year 12.

If his career ended in the next 12 months its not like he cant do anything else with his life because he didnt complete year 12.

Whether its a good idea or not to finish yr 12 is not the point here, its simply that he has been able to focus more on his footy this yr than the others. That wont be the case next year. So it certainly helps explain why he did so well this yr, he got a leg up with being able to do stuff others didnt have time to do.

I dont think that means he has extra drive or desire or anything like that which will result in more of a chance of success at the next level. I do think his decision helped him have some extra success at the u18 level.

I don't know the system that well, but I get the sense that the AFL looks after the own where possible. Listening to Twomey earlier in the season, Higgins was doing some work in the umpires department at AFL house. If he doesn't make it in the game, and I reckon it'd have to be due to injury, he'll probably stay in the system in one form or another.

I've been critical of Higgins the player and his potential at the next level, but the kid does deserve respect for doing everything possible chasing his dream.

 

[GoGrows]

I don't know the system that well, but I get the sense that the AFL looks after the own where possible. Listening to Twomey earlier in the season, Higgins was doing some work in the umpires department at AFL house. If he doesn't make it in the game, and I reckon it'd have to be due to injury, he'll probably stay in the system in one form or another.

I've been critical of Higgins the player and his potential at the next level, but the kid does deserve respect for doing everything possible chasing his dream.

oh no doubt. dont get me wrong, he clearly really wants it. and i hope he makes it.

 

[Richo83]

Maybe school isn't his go? I get what you're saying but hiring a personal trainer does show intent and having watched him talk about footy it does seem like a passion for him. You do have to factor in how much study imapcts in these players' form so quitting school is important to consider.

 

[M Malice]

I only went to school to eat my lunch.

 

[LemmingMaster]

I only went to school to eat my lunch.

You should have hired a personal trainer to help you.

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

Keep hearing how "committed" Higgins is.

"noone is more committed"

"Higgins hired a personal trainer"

"Higgins does extra training drills during the week"

etc etc


Guess what, the kid quit school. He has a s**t load more time than anyone else. Of course he can spend more time on his football. Does that mean he is more committed? No. He just made the, some might say, silly decision to quit school and put all his eggs in the footy basket.

So yes, Higgins is doing extra training drills but that is because he doesnt have year 12 exams to worry about.

I would not be giving him extra kudos for that.

An AFL prospect being able to handle all that comes with their footy in their draft yr as well as the workload of year 12 is far more impressive to me than someone who quit school and hired a personal trainer.

If im going to analyse that at all id argue that Higgins should have dominated he draft yr (as he did). He's essentially got a 1yr leg up on the others with regards to extra development etc.

So a full time apprenticeship in footy is a total negative when at the expense of completing yr 12. Not sure all the tradies would agree with you on that.
Yes, agree it may be an advantage for him over others initially.

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

Exactly. He has to succeed at football because he has nothing else. If that isn't extra motivation, then I don't know what is.

Quitting school and training for football isn't something I'd recommend. But having extra time or not, the commitment can't be questioned. Foolish or not.

Yes Chris better to stay with it if they can. These day's there are a lot more opportunities work wise that spring up out of footy and other sports even for those that dont necessarily make it. Was little money in footy 30 yrs ago and very few lateral work opportunities. Some of us went back to school later as mature age and did okay getting degrees and more etc. Some into later age apprenticeships. Love what you do and give it your best shot.

 

[Snoop Dog]

Just had a quick read bud. Was good and love (as always) a few of the curve balls.

 

[Bateman]

Exactly. He has to succeed at football because he has nothing else. If that isn't extra motivation, then I don't know what is.

Quitting school and training for football isn't something I'd recommend. But having extra time or not, the commitment can't be questioned. Foolish or not.

Chris, I’ve noticed quite a few Phantom. Drafts have us taking Fogarty at pick 5 . What’s your take on him and do you think we will go after him?

 

[getgaff]

Love your work as always Chris25.

I'd be chuffed with West Coast's draft crop so far.

Interested in Andrew McPherson but, I've seen him pop up in a few mocks for us at 38.

Is there any inside word on West Coast being interested in him at all?

 

[Chris25]

Just had a quick read bud. Was good and love (as always) a few of the curve balls.

Thanks. I've saved a few curve balls for the BigFooty phantom as always though.

Chris, I’ve noticed quite a few Phantom. Drafts have us taking Fogarty at pick 5 . What’s your take on him and do you think we will go after him?

I don't think we will, that's just a gut feel though. There are some people who think he's still the most talented kid in the draft, maybe Fremantle are one of those. And being able to take a midfielder at #2 does free us up to take Fogarty at #5, but I don't see it happening. Seems more likely in the 8-12 range.

I am a fan though. There's no doubting his year wasn't great, he's the first to admit that. But the knee injury troubled him more than anyone was letting on, he could have gone in for surgery earlier than he did. Looked like it took away his burst, which is something his game does rely on. And for someone who was already struggling, moving him all around the ground didn't really help things. I'd start him forward, I think he has the game to be a solid #2. Play him out of the goal square, let him use that burst and strength. And eventually give him stints in the midfield.

 

[Chris25]

Love your work as always Chris25.

I'd be chuffed with West Coast's draft crop so far.

Interested in Andrew McPherson but, I've seen him pop up in a few mocks for us at 38.

Is there any inside word on West Coast being interested in him at all?

Nothing that I've heard of. But it's his range, and seems a good pick for them given how many second round selections they have.

 

[Richo83]

So a full time apprenticeship in footy is a total negative when at the expense of completing yr 12. Not sure all the tradies would agree with you on that.
Yes, agree it may be an advantage for him over others initially.

It's easier to become a tradie than become a professional athlete in the AFL. Sure, being a tradie is hard work, but in a population of 23 million, there's only roughly 800 players on a list at any time, which isn't much when you think about it, whereas there are hundreds of thousands of tradies working in Australia. The standard, like most jobs is lower. I get the feeling that Higgins isn't a fan of school and wants footy to be his go, but he wouldn't be the first guy to love the game but have a coach who doesn't love him the same way.

 

[GoGrows]

So a full time apprenticeship in footy is a total negative when at the expense of completing yr 12. Not sure all the tradies would agree with you on that.
Yes, agree it may be an advantage for him over others initially.

read my post again. i said him quitting yr 12 perhaps explains why he's been able to spend more time on his footy compared to others and potentially why he's performed better than most.

this advantage wont exist next yr and beyond.

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

read my post again. i said him quitting yr 12 perhaps explains why he's been able to spend more time on his footy compared to others and potentially why he's performed better than most.

this advantage wont exist next yr and beyond.

.................
An AFL prospect being able to handle all that comes with their footy in their draft yr as well as the workload of year 12 is far more impressive to me than someone who quit school and hired a personal trainer.

If im going to analyse that at all id argue that Higgins should have dominated he draft yr (as he did). He's essentially got a 1yr leg up on the others with regards to extra development etc. (last part your quote)

Apology. I took it you were undermining his choice.

Who actually is more impressive though in terms of the early choice and achievement probably won't come until much later when their AFL careers are well and truly over. I happen to rate most Tradies very highly and smart people esopecially those who have got on with it and done well. I would not rate an AFL footballer above or below a professional shearer for example.

I was suggesting in response we could see his choice as a genuine apprenticeship of "a professional footballer" with expanded opportunities later on.

 

[GoGrows]

Apology. I took it you were undermining his choice.

Who actually is more impressive though in terms of the early choice and achievement probably won't come until much later when their AFL careers are well and truly over. I happen to rate most Tradies very highly and smart people esopecially those who have got on with it and done well. I would not rate an AFL footballer above or below a professional shearer for example.

I was suggesting in response we could see his choice as a genuine apprenticeship of "a professional footballer" with expanded opportunities later on.

all good. nah im not criticising his decision.

tbh, i think we'll see more 18y.o skip year 12, particularly the elite prospects.

 

[Chris25]

I've added Round 3 into the OP. Hopefully I didn't make any mistakes this time. Brisbane used their Round 3 selections to match an earlier bid, hence why they're missing and some of the numbers aren't what they are now...

39. Collingwood - Nathan Kreuger (196cm, 86kg from South Adelaide)
I didn't think Collingwood were serious about moving Darcy Moore to the back lines, but apparently they are? That just highlights how badly they need talls at both ends. If it was me, I'd take Petty to partner with Naughton and keep Moore forward. But I can see Collingwood being fans of the athleticism and versatility that Kreuger offers. Sam Taylor and Toby Wooller would be other options.

40. Adelaide - Harry Petty (194cm, 81kg from Norwood)
If Collingwood pass on Petty, then he's unlikely to make it any further than here. There's talk of Petty going earlier than this, and potentially in the top 25. There was also talk of Brennan Cox doing that last year, and he lasted until the 40s. So it's not guaranteed by any means. He had a very good year for SA, anchored the defense and proved a good all round defender.

41. Gold Coast - James Worpel (185cm, 84kg from Geelong Falcons)
More so a best available selection for the Suns here, Worpel could go anywhere from around 20 to 60 but I like him in the third round. Gold Coast do have a few inside midfielders already, but not all have proven consistent at AFL level yet. Worpel is a quality inside midfielder, and surprisingly impactful on offense. Could be a Round 1 starter.

42. Fremantle - Jackson Ross (192cm, 75kg from Eastern Ranges)
I know what Fremantle fans are thinking, three picks and three Vic Metro kids. What a horrible outcome. But this pick is all about the value. I don't consider any of the WA mids as being top 50 prospects and if we don't need Naughton, then we don't really need Sam Taylor either. Maybe Jake Patmore, but they'll hope he's there at the next pick. Outside midfielder who has improved every week, Ross can be dangerous pushing forward.

43. Hawthorn - Lachlan Fogarty (179cm, 75kg from Western Jets)
The other Fogarty is much higher on some peoples boards than he is on mine, and he's another who could go much higher than this. But I see a small midfielder with no outstanding attributes. He's good at everything he does though, he's clean and wins plenty of the ball. Probably go on to have a long career, just not someone I get excited about.

44. St Kilda - Jordan Johnston (184cm, 76kg from GWV Rebels)
After focusing on the midfield and particular good ball users, the Saints can turn their attention to the forward line. Johnston is one of the few exciting medium forwards in the draft, has the leap and the ability to create from nothing. Reminds a bit of Crozier from his draft year, both have tremendous talent but can go missing at times.

45. Port Adelaide - Sam Taylor (196cm, 85kg from Swan Districts)
Bit of a forgotten man with Naughton getting all the attention. But Taylor also played senior football in the WAFL, and was just as good - if not better than Naughton at times. Long limbed CHB, will probably take a year or two to really develop an AFL body. But it can't all be about now for Port Adelaide.

46. Melbourne - Bayley Fritsch (186cm, 74kg from Casey Demons)
Could probably build a decent team by drafting the Fothergill-Round medallists from the VFL each year, and Fritsch certainly looks to be the next one to join the AFL ranks. The 20 year old kicked 42 goals this year, after injuries have kept him back the past couple of seasons. Has been linked to West Coast in the second round, but Melbourne will have seen as much as anyone if he's available here.

47. Essendon - Ben Paton (185cm, 78kg from Murray Bushrangers)
Coming back as a 19 year old this year, Paton is arguably one of the best medium defenders in the draft. The Combine showed he's quick and athletic, and the stats show he's one of the leading intercept players in the draft pool. Just seems good value here, whether it's a true need or not for Essendon.

48. Port Adelaide - Liam Ryan (184cm, 76kg from Subiaco)
There's no doubting that Port are loading up for a premiership run in 2018, taking any mature aged player they can find. So they might as well continue that into the draft, even if it's a bit early for Ryan in my opinion. There's no doubting his talent though, might take a bit of time to get his conditioning to AFL level but he'd be a better option than Lindsay Thomas.

49. Gold Coast - Oskar Baker (183cm, 76kg from Aspley)
Former Brisbane Academy member, the 19 year old outside midfielder has had a pretty impressive NEAFL season. He's got good speed off a wing, and pushes forward well. And I think it'd be a decent pick up after the selection of Bailey and Worpel for the Suns. Perhaps it's the top of his range, but if a local player is a genuine draft chance then the Queensland teams can afford to go early.

50. Sydney - Toby Wooller (193cm, 90kg from Oakleigh Chargers)
A decent chance to go in the back half of the second round, the likes of Geelong and Collingwood will likely have him on their draft boards there. But I have him slightly further back, being more of a third tall forward - like a Lynch or McGovern at Adelaide. Third round he represents good value though, he's a goal kicker and his game should adapt to the top level.

51. Brisbane - Bailey Henderson (188cm, 75kg from Bendigo Pioneers)
After going inside midfielder, small forward and tall with their first few picks, I like Henderson here for Brisbane. He reminds me a bit of Jacob Allison, and would be a good option to line up opposite him on a wing or flank. He's tall, runs well and has a nice long kick on him. Doesn't have much of an inside game at the moment, but that's okay.

52. Richmond - Jake Patmore (182cm, 79kg from Claremont)
I'm hoping Patmore is available to Fremantle in the fourth round, but I think it's unlikely. He came into the season highly regarded, but his fitness wasn't up to scratch and he struggled early on in the year. He's improved significantly, and I think his natural talent will get him drafted higher than many may expect. He'll start as a rebounding defender, but should move into the midfield eventually.

53. Gold Coast - Hugh Dixon (195cm, 92kg from Kingborough Tigers)
Can't lose a kid to homesickness if there isn't an AFL team in his home state. With all the talk surrounding Tom Lynch, picking up a tall forward would probably be a smart move. Dixon is my favourite in the draft, he just looks a natural forward to me. The likes of McCartin and Wooller may get picked up first, but Dixon would be my pick.

54. Richmond - Tom North (186cm, 87kg from Eastern Ranges)
Not a player who gets spoken about too much, but will likely go in that 30-60 range. So end of third round, he'd be a good pick up for any team. Foot injury cut his year short and stopped him testing at the Combine, but he's a big bodied ball winning midfielder. Best comparison for him would be Jack Graham, and he's gone alright for Richmond so far.

 

[THE_GUN]

I've added Round 3 into the OP. Hopefully I didn't make any mistakes this time. Brisbane used their Round 3 selections to match an earlier bid, hence why they're missing and some of the numbers aren't what they are now...

Cant seem to open it for some reason - Can you link it here Chris

 

[Chris25]

Cant seem to open it for some reason - Can you link it here Chris

Should be there? In the opening post and my last. I just used the quote function to cut down on page length.

 

[aussieviking]

Great write up Chris. I am hoping Freo go Fogarty at 5. Would happy with your other choices at 2