Vic 2017 Northcote By-Election - GREENS GAIN

[Crankyhawk]

Before predicting that we need to see the soon to be completed redistribution, on the current boundaries I would say Batman and Wills are winnable, both Melbourne Ports and Higgins are less likely particularly now that the SSM issue will be off the table.

Also Higgins had liberal member prominent in yes campaign.

 

[Bombermania]

Also Higgins had liberal member prominent in yes campaign.

Which is why I think removing the issue with a yes outcome makes the Greens tasks of wrestling Higgins a bit harder.

How the AEC deals with Higgins and Melbourne Ports will be interesting because each seat has parts that could well be moved to the other seat.

By moving Prahran/South Yarra to Melbourne Ports and Caulfield to Higgins would give both seats a more even profile although the AEC tried to do it last time only to face strong opposition from Michael Danby.

 

[Pessimistic]

Raise the ticket prices in the outer suburbs and there’ll soon be nice empty trains for the luvvies to travel two stops on

Don’t go pretending you care for the environment though, you’re just using it to big note yourselves

It’s the same with sky rail v trench trains

Bellyaching about the ‘look’ we have a trench in camberwell and raised in Canterbury, from decades ago

Let me tell you both are ugly I mean ugly. What’s being put in now is a hundred times better. Amazing that Edna everages brother campaigned to preserve these eyesores

 

[TimmeT]

Which is why I think removing the issue with a yes outcome makes the Greens tasks of wrestling Higgins a bit harder.

How the AEC deals with Higgins and Melbourne Ports will be interesting because each seat has parts that could well be moved to the other seat.

By moving Prahran/South Yarra to Melbourne Ports and Caulfield to Higgins would give both seats a more even profile although the AEC tried to do it last time only to face strong opposition from Michael Danby.

Michael Danby knows any form of move like that and he will be done. Not to mention that the ALP also knows trhat when/if Danby goes as the MP they will most probably not retain that seat.

 

[TimmeT]

Actually, the CMEFU is one of the most successful unions when it comes to supporting and getting positive results for its members. And when you are dealing with an unscrupulous group of malefactors such as the master builders and their hangers-on you have to fight fire with fire or your workers will get screwed.

Fight fire with fire yeah? Is that why the CFMEU's leading organisers and the union have a lengthy history of criminal and civil law breaches associated with them for reasons which are nothing but ridiculous and have no relevance or necessity in achieving positive outcomes for their members?

Like that Barangaroo protest where they caused an unnecessary and illegal shutdown because a worker was suspended (and very fortunate to not be sacked) for threatening to kill and punching a site manager, giving out the personal particulars of agency inspectors to their members in the hope they would intimidate them because their workers did not belong to the union, spitting on a female workplace inspector (which is perplexing considering that safety is apparently the main reason for their protests and other actions) and intimidating police (which again is quite perplexing as they are apparently all for workplace safety but want to make others have an unsafe workplace environment).

 

[Bombermania]

Michael Danby knows any form of move like that and he will be done. Not to mention that the ALP also knows trhat when/if Danby goes as the MP they will most probably not retain that seat.

It will probably go to the Liberals who pretty much win all the booths outside of St Kilda and one or two other booths, its now the most marginal ALP seat in Victoria and with SSM done the seat could be a toss up.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Which is why I think removing the issue with a yes outcome makes the Greens tasks of wrestling Higgins a bit harder.

How the AEC deals with Higgins and Melbourne Ports will be interesting because each seat has parts that could well be moved to the other seat.

By moving Prahran/South Yarra to Melbourne Ports and Caulfield to Higgins would give both seats a more even profile although the AEC tried to do it last time only to face strong opposition from Michael Danby.

Michael Danby is a campaigner. And Labor's token Jew.

 

[AM]

I think any credit Andrews could've got for attempting to improve public transport is entirely undone by the new contract with Metro announced in the last month or two. (This is despite winning a lot of credit points - in my opinion - for the level crossing removal, which has affected the Hurstbridge line, though hasn't affected South Morang.)

I don't know what the answer is, cos public transport is one of those issues that you can probably never get right. I guess, personally though, I want to stop being told that there's nothing wrong with my line when people are already falling out of the door when it gets to my stop (which is only half way along the South Morang line), while at the same time another 2-3 stops are being built at the end of the line as part of the Mernda extension.

In a state election, maybe public transport is the best issue the Greens have to campaign on. They can make their point about shitty public transport to people like me who live that public transport every day, but at this stage they're never going to be in a position where anyone expects that they can or will be able to fix it. It's the perfect "all care, no responsibility" issue for them.

Not so sure about the bolded. There wasn't a queue to take over the rail network as I understand it. In the new agreement Metro won't get away with station hopping; have to meet higher standards of service; clean-up the graffiti that is a disgrace; have cleaner carriages. Frankly, had Kennett not sold off the network for a song we wouldn't be paying and arm and a leg for service some suggest needs work.

Fight fire with fire yeah? Is that why the CFMEU's leading organisers and the union have a lengthy history of criminal and civil law breaches associated with them for reasons which are nothing but ridiculous and have no relevance or necessity in achieving positive outcomes for their members?

Like that Barangaroo protest where they caused an unnecessary and illegal shutdown because a worker was suspended (and very fortunate to not be sacked) for threatening to kill and punching a site manager, giving out the personal particulars of agency inspectors to their members in the hope they would intimidate them because their workers did not belong to the union, spitting on a female workplace inspector (which is perplexing considering that safety is apparently the main reason for their protests and other actions) and intimidating police (which again is quite perplexing as they are apparently all for workplace safety but want to make others have an unsafe workplace environment).

I repeat, the master builders are riven with unscrupulous malefactors. Start with Grocon whose responsible - read irresponsible - staff should have got a custodial sentence for the Swanston Street wall collapse that killed three innocent young people.

Grollo would have his employees work 50 hour weeks on $10 bucks an hour with no health and safety provisions if it wasn't for the union. It's no accident the CMFEU is one of the unions with a strong membership and an excellent record of improving pay and working conditions. When you are confronted with greed and duplicity you need people who won't cower. More strength to the arm of strong unions who will fight for workers rights.

 

[AM]

Michael Danby is a campaigner. And Labor's token Jew.

He's also a seat blocker who has been more interested in pursuing Zionism than Labor policy. Only held on to his pre-selection for so long due to the make-up of the seat he represents. He's going and good riddance.

 

[smokingjacket]

Well thats the Greens in a nutshell isnt it

Can pick and choose the issues they can campaign on, criticise on high knowing full well they dont actually ever have to deliver on anything, fix anything or pay for anything.

Mmm not really. Maybe ironically the Greens poll highest with public service workers, so although they're rarely in the position to legislate policy, in their day jobs, Greens voters are literally the people who deliver the changes of government.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Mmm not really. Maybe ironically the Greens poll highest with public service workers, so although they're rarely in the position to legislate policy, in their day jobs, Greens voters are literally the people who deliver the changes of government.

Its a great gig firing shots over the bow, whining about this and that. But not having to worry about reality of balancing the books

Alice in Wonderland political party

 

[Bombermania]

I've always argued that the day the Greens get their head around economic policy and how to manage a budget is the day they will be seriously dangerous to the major parties, they have improved in this area but there is still some room for improvement and its not like the two majors are economic whizzes.

 

[BEaston]

Batman, Wills and possibly even Higgins and Melbourne Ports all in play for the Greens at the next federal election

Definitely.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Not so sure about the bolded. There wasn't a queue to take over the rail network as I understand it. In the new agreement Metro won't get away with station hopping; have to meet higher standards of service; clean-up the graffiti that is a disgrace; have cleaner carriages. Frankly, had Kennett not sold off the network for a song we wouldn't be paying and arm and a leg for service some suggest needs work.

I agree with everything that you've written (both the quoted bid, and the next bit about the CFMEU.)

I guess though, there didn't need to be a queue to take over the rail network. It's never worked properly since it was privatised (nor before then, when the Liberals were doing that thing that Liberals do where they trash public services to the point they can justify outsourcing them).

The RTBU was campaigning pretty strongly for the train and tram networks to be brought back into public hands. I don't think they ever expected to win - I think they were more starting to line up their ducks for next time the contracts were up - but I would've liked Andrews and Allen to at least pretend they explored the option. There's a whole litany of examples of public services going to s**t when privatised, but there's not a whole lot of examples of industries that have thrived post-privatisation.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Its a great gig firing shots over the bow, whining about this and that. But not having to worry about reality of balancing the books

Alice in Wonderland political party

I think this is a really outdated view that isn't fair on the Greens in 2017. I've lived in Tassie in times when they were the partner in propping up minority governments (both Liberal under Rundle, and Labor under Bartlett and Giddings). At various points they were such "tight" partners that they had Greens lower house MPs in Cabinet positions. And they were responsible in how they wielded that power.

It would also be unfair to say "it's Tassie, who cares", because that knowledge of how to govern, how best to represent the interests of their members and voters, and that responsibility to understand fiscal policy, all ultimately became knowledge that the Federal Greens had when Brown, Milne and McKim all went onto to the Senate.

I dunno... I go back and forth on just how left I am, and which left party I vote for. But given a day to think about it, I think this Northcote byelection result is a good one. It's only for a year, but it makes Labor takes this area seriously, rather than taking it for granted which they've done at federal and state level. It defies belief to me that, in both the federal and Vic branches of the ALP, the heart of Northcote is "owned" by the right faction of the ALP, which is completely at odds with the area's demographic. I couldn't see myself ever voting for Feeney, and I'm pretty certain that thousands of my neighbours would agree with me.

 

[Bombermania]

I agree with everything that you've written (both the quoted bid, and the next bit about the CFMEU.)

I guess though, there didn't need to be a queue to take over the rail network. It's never worked properly since it was privatised (nor before then, when the Liberals were doing that thing that Liberals do where they trash public services to the point they can justify outsourcing them).

The RTBU was campaigning pretty strongly for the train and tram networks to be brought back into public hands. I don't think they ever expected to win - I think they were more starting to line up their ducks for next time the contracts were up - but I would've liked Andrews and Allen to at least pretend they explored the option. There's a whole litany of examples of public services going to s**t when privatised, but there's not a whole lot of examples of industries that have thrived post-privatisation.

When the trains were owned by the state they were not much better, in the early 1990s morning news bulletins would start with a list of rail delays and cancellations. The system has only been privatised in name because in reality the transport department is very much in control of the public transport system.

 

[Gavin Excell]

I think this is a really outdated view that isn't fair on the Greens in 2017. I've lived in Tassie in times when they were the partner in propping up minority governments (both Liberal under Rundle, and Labor under Bartlett and Giddings). At various points they were such "tight" partners that they had Greens lower house MPs in Cabinet positions. And they were responsible in how they wielded that power.

It would also be unfair to say "it's Tassie, who cares", because that knowledge of how to govern, how best to represent the interests of their members and voters, and that responsibility to understand fiscal policy, all ultimately became knowledge that the Federal Greens had when Brown, Milne and McKim all went onto to the Senate.

I dunno... I go back and forth on just how left I am, and which left party I vote for. But given a day to think about it, I think this Northcote byelection result is a good one. It's only for a year, but it makes Labor takes this area seriously, rather than taking it for granted which they've done at federal and state level. It defies belief to me that, in both the federal and Vic branches of the ALP, the heart of Northcote is "owned" by the right faction of the ALP, which is completely at odds with the area's demographic. I couldn't see myself ever voting for Feeney, and I'm pretty certain that thousands of my neighbours would agree with me.

All fair points.

In the end its democracy and thats how the people of Northcote have voted.

 

[TimmeT]

Michael Danby is a campaigner. And Labor's token Jew.

They'll still have Dreyfus.

 

[King Brown]

Mmm not really. Maybe ironically the Greens poll highest with public service workers, so although they're rarely in the position to legislate policy, in their day jobs, Greens voters are literally the people who deliver the changes of government.

Overpaid people with zero skin in the game - yep sounds like the Greens.

Greens ascent only enables the Libs. Splits the ALP vote and means to take power they have to negotiate with a party their increasingly socially conservative base detests.

 

[Pessimistic]

Mmm not really. Maybe ironically the Greens poll highest with public service workers, so although they're rarely in the position to legislate policy, in their day jobs, Greens voters are literally the people who deliver the changes of government.

Maybe not PS workers know more than anyone you need effective government

 

[Pessimistic]

Overpaid people with zero skin in the game - yep sounds like the Greens.

Greens ascent only enables the Libs. Splits the ALP vote and means to take power they have to negotiate with a party their increasingly socially conservative base detests.

Or malcolms libs. If the coalition split they are natural green bedfellows

 

[Bombermania]

Or malcolms libs. If the coalition split they are natural green bedfellows

In Victoria that is the case with the major difference between the two groups coming down to economics, this is why the Greens poll strongly across many inner suburban Liberal areas.

 

[smokingjacket]

Overpaid people with zero skin in the game - yep sounds like the Greens.

Greens ascent only enables the Libs. Splits the ALP vote and means to take power they have to negotiate with a party their increasingly socially conservative base detests.

Surely Australia's bureaucracy have some skin in the game? They live here too. That's before you can include other motivations such as national pride and ideology. I feel like Taleb has skewered a lot of bad economic arguments while also introducing a new argument that I see used very much like the "rational actor" economic argument.

Hard to argue with part two though. You see cases of migrants from countries where they've been persecuted for their religion, and they still have gut reactions to the godlessness of the Greens.

 

[King Brown]

Surely Australia's bureaucracy have some skin in the game? They live here too. That's before you can include other motivations such as national pride and ideology. I feel like Taleb has skewered a lot of bad economic arguments while also introducing a new argument that I see used very much like the "rational actor" economic argument.

Perhaps unfair on public servants in general, but the Greens are popular in suburbs with $1 million average house prices, and their voters are insulated from the negative consequences of their beliefs - both through their higher wealth and relative job security. I think your average Greens voter would detest national pride too. Half the Greens voters I know who live in inner Melbourne went to grammar schools.

Maybe a particular type of public servant - the ladder climbing graduate interested in policy, who's looking to join a consultancy if it all gets too boring (and will switch to voting Liberal when they hit 45).

 

[nobbyiscool]

Perhaps unfair on public servants in general, but the Greens are popular in suburbs with $1 million average house prices, and their voters are insulated from the negative consequences of their beliefs - both through their higher wealth and relative job security. I think your average Greens voter would detest national pride too. Half the Greens voters I know who live in inner Melbourne went to grammar schools.

Maybe a particular type of public servant - the ladder climbing graduate interested in policy, who's looking to join a consultancy if it all gets too boring (and will switch to voting Liberal when they hit 45).

It's not public servants that you're unfairly generalising - it's Green voters across the board.

The Greens politicaly movement in Australia was founded in Tasmania, where $1m houses are few and far between, where their wealth and job security is typically lower than other parts of the country, and where "green issues" such as clearfelling of native forests and pulp mill absolutely influenced the lives and the prospects of everyone who lived there. During that period the Greens in Tasmania were achieving the best results of their existence, and ended up the partner in consecutive minority governments.