Analysis Aussie Rules Explained - Swans Board Style

[robbieando]

- Collingwood in the 70's had this bright idea called "New Magpies"
- Richmond in the 90's had to rattle tins to stay alive
- Bulldogs likewise and nearly merged with Fitzroy in 1989
- Carlton are currently in debt to the AFL and the banks and when Elliot stood down were only days away from their licence being handed back to the AFL.
- North were part owned by Carlton at one point and in such amount of debt the AFL tried to move them to the Gold Coast after failed attempts to move to Sydney, Canberra and the well the Gold Coast.
- Geelong had a $8 million debt which required a change of banks as the interest would of bankrupted when Frank Costa took over.
- Essendon currently survive on the largest of Paul Little.
- Melbourne and Hawthorn nearly merged because of their debts
- St Kilda re-paid their debts in the 80's at cut price deal that saw players lose money
- Fitzroy were put into administration which allowed the AFL to control who they merged with.
- We relocated
- University folded

Thats your history of the Melbourne clubs and financials

 

[Number37]

Is that a fact? Every single one? I did not know that.

Puts a very different complexion on things.

I suppose it depends on the definition of broke.
The Victorian clubs have all had large - massive debts which have been repaid/wiped out with the help of either the AFL and/or coterie groups.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

I suppose it depends on the definition of broke.
The Victorian clubs have all had large - massive debts which have been repaid/wiped out with the help of either the AFL and/or coterie groups.

Nice use of "coterie" BTW.

 

[Number37]

Nice use of "coterie" BTW.

If you excuse the poor English.
Coterie group is a tautology isn't it?

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

If you excuse the poor English.
Coterie group is a tautology isn't it?

Probably would be, now I think about it.

You're excused.

Not like you said "PIN number", or "DAT tape" (showing my age with that second one.)

 

[Mick Oxlong]

Probably would be, now I think about it.

You're excused.

Not like you said "PIN number", or "DAT tape" (showing my age with that second one.)

Would've been so good at 9AM in the morning!

 

[DarkFlyer]

So I'm watch the recorded overnight Dockers-Eagles match and these are my questions:

1. Sometimes the umpires say "play on" when a mark seems to have been made to the confusion of the player who made the mark. I know that the player can "play on" themselves by disposing of the ball quickly, but it didn't seem to be the case for the marks in question. Also, what actions by a player who make a mark initiate the play on rather than a free kick? Running forward? How far?

2. How much of what a team does (particularly in their forward 50) is a set play versus "set the ball, get the ball"? For example in basketball, there are set plays where a series of picks and coordinated motion should result in the desired shot. Another example is American football where every single play is tightly scripted and each player has a defined duty. How often is this the case in footy where a player with a free kick knows exactly what his teammates will do? Or is it just mostly a reaction to what they see?

3. This is related to question 2 I suppose, but besides the time between the halves and the quarters, I assume the coaches have little communication with the players on the field? I'm contrasting this with American football where the head coach is on the sidelines communication with the team constantly.

 

[DarkFlyer]

- Collingwood in the 70's had this bright idea called "New Magpies"
- Richmond in the 90's had to rattle tins to stay alive
- Bulldogs likewise and nearly merged with Fitzroy in 1989
- Carlton are currently in debt to the AFL and the banks and when Elliot stood down were only days away from their licence being handed back to the AFL.
- North were part owned by Carlton at one point and in such amount of debt the AFL tried to move them to the Gold Coast after failed attempts to move to Sydney, Canberra and the well the Gold Coast.
- Geelong had a $8 million debt which required a change of banks as the interest would of bankrupted when Frank Costa took over.
- Essendon currently survive on the largest of Paul Little.
- Melbourne and Hawthorn nearly merged because of their debts
- St Kilda re-paid their debts in the 80's at cut price deal that saw players lose money
- Fitzroy were put into administration which allowed the AFL to control who they merged with.
- We relocated
- University folded

Thats your history of the Melbourne clubs and financials

I sense that the financial condition of the clubs is much improved?

In reading about the Fitzroy situation, it seems South Melbourne/Sydney were really fortuitous that it was the Swans and not the Lions who moved to Sydney. My understanding is that Fitzroy was blocked twice: once from Sydney and once from moving to Brisbane outright (rather than merging)? I read that it effectively erased Fitzroy's history because their successes (like the Brisbane premiership of 2001) where not seen as a continuity of the previous club, like the Swans' premiership of 2005 was.

How many Fitzroy fans remain in Melbourne relative to Swans supporters?

 

[robbieando]

So I'm watch the recorded overnight Dockers-Eagles match and these are my questions:

1. Sometimes the umpires say "play on" when a mark seems to have been made to the confusion of the player who made the mark. I know that the player can "play on" themselves by disposing of the ball quickly, but it didn't seem to be the case for the marks in question. Also, what actions by a player who make a mark initiate the play on rather than a free kick? Running forward? How far?

You might be talking about when a ball is touched before the mark and hence play on is called thus the confusion. For a player to initiate play on they either get told to play on by the umpire because they take too long to take the kick or they take a step off the "mark".

2. How much of what a team does (particularly in their forward 50) is a set play versus "set the ball, get the ball"? For example in basketball, there are set plays where a series of picks and coordinated motion should result in the desired shot. Another example is American football where every single play is tightly scripted and each player has a defined duty. How often is this the case in footy where a player with a free kick knows exactly what his teammates will do? Or is it just mostly a reaction to what they see?

There are loose set plays at stoppages and kick ins but most of what you see is the decision of the player within the team guidelines and gameplan.

3. This is related to question 2 I suppose, but besides the time between the halves and the quarters, I assume the coaches have little communication with the players on the field? I'm contrasting this with American football where the head coach is on the sidelines communication with the team constantly.

The players on the bench can speak to the coach/es and the coach can send one runner (person you see dressed in pink) onto the field with messages.

 

[robbieando]

I sense that the financial condition of the clubs is much improved?

Greatly. Each club has the AFL to provide extra funding or interest free loans where required.

In reading about the Fitzroy situation, it seems South Melbourne/Sydney were really fortuitous that it was the Swans and not the Lions who moved to Sydney. My understanding is that Fitzroy was blocked twice: once from Sydney and once from moving to Brisbane outright (rather than merging)? I read that it effectively erased Fitzroy's history because their successes (like the Brisbane premiership of 2001) where not seen as a continuity of the previous club, like the Swans' premiership of 2005 was.

The Fitzroy players agreed to move to Sydney in the late 70's and then Brisbane in 1986 only for their Board to decide not to both times forcing them to merge in 1996. Their history is kind of in limbo as the merged club acknowledges it but can't claim it as part of the merger deal.

How many Fitzroy fans remain in Melbourne relative to Swans supporters?

Say about 15,000-20,000. Half went with the merged club, some left the game and some went to other clubs

 

[Sydney Bloods]

So I'm watch the recorded overnight Dockers-Eagles match and these are my questions:

1. Sometimes the umpires say "play on" when a mark seems to have been made to the confusion of the player who made the mark. I know that the player can "play on" themselves by disposing of the ball quickly, but it didn't seem to be the case for the marks in question. Also, what actions by a player who make a mark initiate the play on rather than a free kick? Running forward? How far?

theres two reasons this occurs:
A: if the ball is touched by another player between the kick and the mark (often the umps first call will be "touched, play on" then he'll repeat "play on" several times. this most often occurs when a player dives at the ball to charge it down like in rugby but only gets his finger tips on the ball. (as such players downfield are unaware its been touched)

B: the ball hasn't traveled the minimum distance for a mark to be award. the minimum distance to be awarded a mark is 15 meters (or 10 if play for hawthorn) in this case you'll usually here the umpire say "not fifteen, play on and repeat this a few times.

2. How much of what a team does (particularly in their forward 50) is a set play versus "set the ball, get the ball"? For example in basketball, there are set plays where a series of picks and coordinated motion should result in the desired shot. Another example is American football where every single play is tightly scripted and each player has a defined duty. How often is this the case in footy where a player with a free kick knows exactly what his teammates will do? Or is it just mostly a reaction to what they see?

set plays occur rarely usually only around the stoppage, these plays usually only involve how to set up the players around the stoppage and which direction the ruck should be looking to tap the ball. you can also look at kicking out of defense as set play, nowadays as teams have a scheme for kicking out of defense and ruthlessly stick to it until they are told otherwise (even if it hasn't worked for two qtrs)

3. This is related to question 2 I suppose, but besides the time between the halves and the quarters, I assume the coaches have little communication with the players on the field? I'm contrasting this with American football where the head coach is on the sidelines communication with the team constantly.

the coach isn't usually in direct communication with the players, however. runners (the guys with water bottles and stupid vests) are almost constantly relaying messages to the players on the ground these days. Additionally the coach may ask that when a player comes off for a rest that he jump on the phone for a quick chat (this is usually an expletive riddled rant about the fact the player isn't following the gameplan or being a stupid selfish campaigner) finally senior players are also given messages to pass on as they come off the bench, but its usually restricted to how much time is left in the qtr and to act accordingly.

 

[Mister B]

B: the ball hasn't traveled the minimum distance for a mark to be award. the minimum distance to be awarded a mark is 15 meters (or 10 if play for hawthorn) in this case you'll usually here the umpire say "not fifteen, play on and repeat this a few times.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

We approached Notre Dame via letter for permission in the 70's to use it as our club song and they gave permission without any fuss or request for any money. The letters became public a few years back.

Yes, but that was 10 years after we started using it.

Don't get me wrong, my knowledge of this extends to round table talks with my long deceased grandfather and my Dad, but I understood that, certainly initially, there was a bit of an issue with using the song. The letters came later.

Perhaps the issue wasn't so much the use of the song, but its use without even asking.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Off the top of my head, Sydney and Melbourne are both huge cities, and there's not a lot of anything in the 600 miles between them. Perhaps this causes a more intense rivalry than would normally be the case, so I think to a very large extent, the failure of Aussie Rules to establish itself earlier in Sydney, or of either of the rugby codes to really make any dent in Melbourne, may well have been primarily due to neither city wishing in any way to appear to be endorsing anything about the other's culture.

But I'm not a historian; it's just a theory. Frankly, although as I explained earlier, I'm acutely aware of the current differences in football preferences between the two states, I can't say I really understand how it has come to be like this. Over to some more learned scholar.

You pretty much have it right.

It is important to understand that the colonies of Melbourne and Sydney were, until Federation in 1901, effectively separate countries. It took days to travel between the two, and their settlement histories were vastly different, one being a penal colony (Sydney), the other a settlement based on land quality and to a lesser degree, strategic matters related to making sure the French didn't get a settlement.

With the Gold Rush, Melbourne's population quickly outstripped that of Sydney such that, when Federation occurred, Melbourne was made the capital.

It was against this background that there developed a significant resentment towards Melbourne from the people of Sydney. The organic growth in Australian Football was certainly being replicated in NSW as evidenced by the current code balance in the Riverina. But that growth was stopped in its tracks by the Sydney establishment, who simply refused access to sporting grounds for Australian Football. And refused to allow it to be played in the private and public schools. And that was ultimately the killer.

When the working class in Sydney decided to tell the elites to get stuffed and choose a professional code in opposition to the amateur Rugby, they followed the England example and went with Rugby League.

There were, of course, other factors, and the very popular Dally Messenger's switch to Rugby League certainly influenced that game's popularity, but there is no doubt that Australian Football's growth in the Northern States was willfully sabotaged by the NSW hierarchy, with the result being the situation we have today.

 

[DarkFlyer]

Many American sports have had a recent revolution in the use of advanced analytics (like the shooting percentages by zone of the floor and effectiveness going right and left, etc). Has this revolution occurred in footy? If so, what are the statistical measures and is there much debate over their validity/adoption?

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

I sense that the financial condition of the clubs is much improved?

That's certainly true. Throughout the 70s in particular, richer clubs like Carlton, Essendon, Collingwood, and Richmond were simply able to purchase success and South Melbourne, Fitzroy and Footscray simply wallowed at or near the bottom of the ladder. At times, these smaller clubs would try to compete with the big guns but would just go broke trying.

A salary cap was introduced in 1987 (ironically in response to the Swans sudden purchased success) and this, along with the introduction of the draft and exponentially growing finances from TV rights, and of course more astute financial management across the competition, has made the financial viability of most clubs much more certain.

 

[DarkFlyer]

You pretty much have it right.

It is important to understand that the colonies of Melbourne and Sydney were, until Federation in 1901, effectively separate countries. It took days to travel between the two, and their settlement histories were vastly different, one being a penal colony (Sydney), the other a settlement based on land quality and to a lesser degree, strategic matters related to making sure the French didn't get a settlement.

With the Gold Rush, Melbourne's population quickly outstripped that of Sydney such that, when Federation occurred, Melbourne was made the capital.

It was against this background that there developed a significant resentment towards Melbourne from the people of Sydney. The organic growth in Australian Football was certainly being replicated in NSW as evidenced by the current code balance in the Riverina. But that growth was stopped in its tracks by the Sydney establishment, who simply refused access to sporting grounds for Australian Football. And refused to allow it to be played in the private and public schools. And that was ultimately the killer.

When the working class in Sydney decided to tell the elites to get stuffed and choose a professional code in opposition to the amateur Rugby, they followed the England example and went with Rugby League.

There were, of course, other factors, and the very popular Dally Messenger's switch to Rugby League certainly influenced that game's popularity, but there is no doubt that Australian Football's growth in the Northern States was willfully sabotaged by the NSW hierarchy, with the result being the situation we have today.

I read in Shake Down the Thunder that the first exhibition of footy in Sydney was in 1905 and local newspaper accounts claimed it was a success and well-attended. Another exhibition wasn't staged in Sydney until 1951! That is amazing to me. The local Sydney newspaper was rather prescient in it's account of the 1905 exhibition, claiming that it would take a century for footy to have any meaningful success in Sydney. I don't have to tell this board what happened 100 years later. . .

 

[DarkFlyer]

How does the minor leagues (I don't know what you call them) for the AFL work? Are there smaller clubs that are owned/controlled by the 18 senior clubs? Is this where they develop players? Can players be called up and down during the season?

Where do the players in the AFL draft come from? Who has them under contract before they are drafted? How old are they generally when drafted and what kind of salaries do they make after being drafted?

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

I read in Shake Down the Thunder that the first exhibition of footy in Sydney was in 1905 and local newspaper accounts claimed it was a success and well-attended. Another exhibition wasn't staged in Sydney until 1951! That is amazing to me. The local Sydney newspaper was rather prescient in it's account of the 1905 exhibition, claiming that it would take a century for footy to have any meaningful success in Sydney. I don't have to tell this board what happened 100 years later. . .

Yes, but that's only top level footy. There was Australian Football being played throughout that period, just in very restricted circumstances.

 

[CD__]

How does the minor leagues (I don't know what you call them) for the AFL work? Are there smaller clubs that are owned/controlled by the 18 senior clubs? Is this where they develop players? Can players be called up and down during the season?

Where do the players in the AFL draft come from? Who has them under contract before they are drafted? How old are they generally when drafted and what kind of salaries do they make after being drafted?

Most AFL clubs have a 'reserves' team (either a stand alone team or an existing state team) and they all play in the various state bases competitions in Victoria, S.A, W.A, NSW and Qld. However AFL lists are generally made up of between 38-45 players (I won't go into specifics surround the various rookie categories etc.), dependent on salary cap structure and only players from this list can play during any given season. This means that the reserves teams are made up of the players from the primary list that aren't getting a game in the first 22 as well as either 'top-up' players or players who play for that existing state based team.

It probably won't happen for a while yet, but in my opinion a national second-tier competition is inevitable and necessary...similar to the D-League in the NBA.

 

[The King!]

The reserves and lower leagues are one of the most unequal parts of this comp

 

[Sydney Bloods]

How does the minor leagues (I don't know what you call them) for the AFL work? Are there smaller clubs that are owned/controlled by the 18 senior clubs? Is this where they develop players? Can players be called up and down during the season?

the minor leagues are a cluster* due to the nature of how the AFL came to be, most clubs nowadays have a "seconds" team which is where players are developed, however this is not always the case, some clubs simply own the team as an affiliate and have little control over how the "seconds" club is run including player development. Some teams have no "seconds" team and so their players are scattered around a state comp, think of it like the MLB farm system, only they have zero control over it.

this is all changing slowly but club politics prevents drastic changes like a national reserves competition being established. the largest excuse is money (this is bullshit of course the NEAFL is played across 2 states and 2 territories encompassing over half of the nation with clubs with clubs far from AFL level of revenue playing in it along side teams like brisbane, GWS, GS, and Sydney) But really its just old campaigners refusing to let go of nostalgia (and greedy bastards with their hands in the till) Preventing a proper Reserves comp from being established.

Players do move up and down between the main team and whatever system the club has, In fact this happens week to week, if your not named in the clubs team list that week, your most likely going to play in the "two's" players. Players who don't perform are usually dropped unless the team has depth issues (or are richmond) and players who are coming back from injuries usually come back through the "seconds" system.

Where do the players in the AFL draft come from? Who has them under contract before they are drafted? How old are they generally when drafted and what kind of salaries do they make after being drafted?

the Draft was set up due to some clubs "poaching" players that other clubs felt like they "rightfully" owned and issues where corruption in zoning allocations ****ed over teams. the draft was ultimately set up to put an end to the s**t fighting that resulted.

draftee's come from all over the country, they are scouted from state leagues and they are not "contracted" to anyone as before being drafted. This is because most players are 18-19 when they enter the drafted and thus are "juniors" before being drafted. Last i heard a rookie salary was $34,000 P.A and the contract lasts 2 years, but this may have changed because the Players association has been getting pay rise after pay rise with each new EBA. After the initial 2 years a player can still be kept on the rookie list but they can also be poached by other clubs.

 

[Number37]

It probably won't happen for a while yet, but in my opinion a national second-tier competition is inevitable and necessary...similar to the D-League in the NBA.

There are not enough corporate dollars in Australia to make sports viable. Every sport has had a financial crisis.
For example: Look at the explosion of sports betting ads, it is nothing more than a money grab, because sports have to take whatever money they can get, even where it is from organisations they should be steering as far away as possible from.

There will come a time in the not too distant future where the TV rights dollars will start going backwards in real terms.
How many AFL clubs are profitable?
How long does it take an AFL (like Brisbane) to go from profitable to massively in debt?
Adding another tier will increase costs substantially & the AFL and clubs simply don't have the money to sustain it long term.

 

[Elder van Berlo]

I toddled on over to this board to see what you're all saying about tonight's game and stumbled across this little pearl of a thread. Great stuff! Shame of course that DarkFlyer got aboard the Swans before we had a chance to get our claws into him, but I always enjoy the education of a complete stranger to the game. Good stuff.

If I can add a couple of things on recent topics of discussion in the thread:

Many American sports have had a recent revolution in the use of advanced analytics (like the shooting percentages by zone of the floor and effectiveness going right and left, etc). Has this revolution occurred in footy? If so, what are the statistical measures and is there much debate over their validity/adoption?

This is a really interesting question and something that I think people are starting to attempt to grapple with, without much luck so far. Traditionally, stats like kicks, handballs and marks have been considered very important - something like basketball's popcorn stats of points, rebounds and assists. Everyone has a bit of a different take on what actually makes a good team good, and football is such a dynamic rather than iterative type of game (as opposed to say, baseball or to a lesser extent, basketball), that it is very hard to nail down statistical indicators of success.

the minor leagues are a cluster**** due to the nature of how the AFL came to be, most clubs nowadays have a "seconds" team which is where players are developed, however this is not always the case, some clubs simply own the team as an affiliate and have little control over how the "seconds" club is run including player development. Some teams have no "seconds" team and so their players are scattered around a state comp, think of it like the MLB farm system, only they have zero control over it.

I might be wrong but I think every club in the AFL now has a reserves/affiliate second tier team that they have either complete (reserves) or substantial (affiliate) control over.

I have to confess to not knowing a lot about the Victorian clubs' arrangements with VFL affiliates, but as far as I know the last dominos to fall were the Perth sides having affiliates in the WAFL, which happened in the last couple of years, and the SA teams having reserves sides in the SANFL. This year is the Crows' 3rd year in the SANFL - the Crows having been a club created in 1990 specifically to play in the AFL as a representative of all 10 SANFL clubs of the time. One of those clubs, Port Adelaide, entered a team in the AFL a few years later but the SANFL club remained in the SANFL and was not actually a reserves team for the Power until the last few years. It created a bizarre situation where the Crows would draft players from interstate - they would be farmed out to SANFL clubs via a "mini-draft" and some young Crows would end up deep in enemy territory playing for Port Adelaide in the SANFL.

As others have said, I think the reluctance of SA and WA to have "AFL reserves" teams in their local leagues is largely historical - these are once proud leagues that were comparable to the VFL of the time (which has now expanded into the AFL) and there are many people, particularly those who were into adulthood before the Crows came into the league in 1991, who still feel a greater parochial attachment to the club they grew up supporting than the one that was created from thin air to compete on the national stage. Indeed, there is a very strong school of thought amongst SANFL die hards that the two AFL reserves teams should be kicked out of the SANFL.

As others have said, a full AFL reserves competition is definitely desirable and probably inevitable.

Now, let's have a good clean game and we can all join together in hurling vitriol at Kurt Tippett.

 

[RW]

This is a really interesting question and something that I think people are starting to attempt to grapple with, without much luck so far. Traditionally, stats like kicks, handballs and marks have been considered very important - something like basketball's popcorn stats of points, rebounds and assists. Everyone has a bit of a different take on what actually makes a good team good, and football is such a dynamic rather than iterative type of game (as opposed to say, baseball or to a lesser extent, basketball), that it is very hard to nail down statistical indicators of success.

This is a really good point regarding the dynamic nature of football. Yes, it is harder to come up with statistical indicators of success in Australian football compared to some other sports, but such analysis is possible. It just depends on using the right data and drawing the right conclusions from it. The squiggle thread on the main board is a great example of this actually:

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/race-for-the-flag-in-squiggly-lines.1022679/

What I like about the squiggle ratings is that they aren't necessarily the best predictors of success, but they are an effective way of visualising where a team is ranked compared to the rest of the competition by simply using points for and against to come up with offensive and defensive ratings for each team. Over time, points scored and conceded are probably the two variables that have the greatest influence on the number of games a team wins.

We also run a stats thread on our board, one of our posters does a weekly update ranking both the Swans and our opponent for that week on several key indicators such as contested and uncontested possessions, inside 50s and clearances (jump to the last page for the most recent updates). Often these rankings can provide clues as to a team's playing style:

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/the-stats-thread.936536/

I will also say that most teams (including ours) keep their own stats as they have their own KPIs (for want of a better term) that they want their players to achieve. In that respect the official published stats may not provide the whole story since it doesn't tell you what each coach's precise game plan is (that being private information for obvious reasons).