LIVE Federal Election Coverage 2016

[Hank Scorpion]

what seats did he call that went the other way?

- The computer called Freo for the Libs with about 10% counted
- At one point two seats had been called for the Greens (Batman I assume)
- Flynn had been called for the LNP halfway through the night, with it then being called for the ALP just as the ABC's TV coverage was finishing

Of the seats still in serious doubt:
- Hindmarsh had been called for the ALP
- Capricornia had been called for the Libs

 

[The Speaker]

Due to the DD, half the senate needs to serve 3 year terms, while the other half serves 6, but there's no official or legal requirement outlined in the constitution for how this occurs. This means half + 1 could potentially bully the other half into serving a half term.

Given the likely senate numbers, it's highly possible that Labor, Greens, and Xenophon (plus Hinch, depending on total Greens numbers) will form an alliance and force the remaining senators (Libs, Nats, Lambie, Nile, Hanson) to serve 3 year terms.

lol

That's not going to happen. While it is the case that the Senate is given the power to decide which method will be used there is absolutely no chance they'll do something like that. They have previously used the order-elected method, but the Commonwealth Electoral Act recommends that they use a recount method involving a second count in which only the elected Senators are included in the count.

 

[GreyCrow]

There most certainly is a method for who gets 3 and 6 year terms, and I'd be pretty surprised if it wasn't set out in legislation.

Antony Green blogs about this

Its based on order of election

Order-Of-Election
There have been six previous double dissolution elections in 1914, 1951, 1974, 1975, 1983 and 1987.

After each of these elections the new Senate has used the Order-Of-Election method to choose which senators serve a full six-year term. This means the first six senators elected in any state get six years, numbers seven through 12 get three years.

But as Green points out in his blog, Order-Of-Election can create some strange and potentially unfair outcomes.

To get around this problem, Section 282 was inserted into the Commonwealth Electoral Act in 1984.

The Recount method
It provides for a different method, one we'll call the Recount method.

In this model, the votes are counted as if the double dissolution were a normal half-Senate election for six seats instead of 12. The senators elected in this method would get a full six years, and the rest would get three-year terms.

Interestingly, the Recount was used for the 1987 double dissolution election, but the Senate chose to ignore it and instead allocated terms using the Order-Of-Election method.

The Senate has since moved resolutions under both Coalition and Labor governments stating its intention to use the Recount method. But there's nothing to bind a future Senate to it, and a majority of senators would be free to act in their own political interests.

Green says the choice of method could have significant implications for the left of politics.

"This is most likely to have an impact on the Greens in New South Wales and Queensland where the two methods are likely to produce different results on whether Labor or the Greens are allocated long term seats," he wrote in his blog.

He says under the Order-of-Election method, it is also possible the Greens could win two long-term senators in Tasmania, Western Australia and Victoria. He says the method would be certain to deliver the Nick Xenophon Team two long-term senators in South Australia.

 

[Donakebab]

The bigfooty link thing doesn't seem to like ftp

I discovered that after linking it so had to ninja edit not to lose face.

 

[Tents]

care to share a link, because this is the link i have for the ABC http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/
it does not match the AEC raw count, it is most certainly a prediction.

We are looking at the same figures.

The reason the ABC seat count doesn't match the AEC seat count is that the ABC has figures for 4 seats that the AEC is categorising as 'not yet determined'. I don't know why the discrepancy on these 4 seats.

Three of these 'not yet determined' seats will go to L/NP and one to the ALP. The AEC not including these is the difference in the two counts.

- ABC has L/NP 70, plus ahead in 3 in doubt (so overall ahead in 73) with ALP 67 plus ahead in 5 in doubt (so overall ahead in 72).
- AEC has L/NP ahead in 70, ALP ahead in 71 - but add in the 4 not yet determined and the totals are the same (L/NP ahead in 73, ALP ahead in 72).

 

[Demosthenes]

We really need a constitutional amendment to fix the recount method as the way of determining DD Senate distributions. It's quite clearly the fairest method to split the seats under IRV, which is why it was introduced into the electoral act.

The problem is that while the system will always advantage one major party and disadvantage the other - it will always disadvantage minor parties. So as long as the Greens and/or other minor parties control the balance of power, the recount method will never get up.

 

[JD Tomahawk]

If LNP finish 73 and ALP finish 72 do LNP get in or is it who can sway the minor parties to side with them.
Is ALP still a chance to anyone who knows politics well enough?

 

[Dry Rot]

Very amusing result so far.

Say the Coalition gets 74-76 seats, what are people's thoughts on the probable strategy for the Speaker?

 

[Hawk Dork]

If LNP finish 73 and ALP finish 72 do LNP get in or is it who can sway the minor parties to side with them.
Is ALP still a chance to anyone who knows politics well enough?

You could add Greens and Wilkie to ALP to get 74 they then need 1 more

 

[pjcrows]

Very amusing result so far.

Say the Coalition gets 74-76 seats, what are people's thoughts on the probable strategy for the Speaker?

Rebecca Sharkie.

 

[Dry Rot]

Rebecca Sharkie.

Hm, no experience and I reckon Nick X will want his member very visible in debates, not as Speaker.

Katter would be interesting, especially if he uses his guns and whip.

 

[Badesumofu]

Rebecca Sharkie.

No way Xenophon would go for that. It only happens if she breaks ranks with him.

I can't see any particularly likely way that the LNP get to 76. They'd have to win on of the three seats where Labor are up by 1000 votes or.

William Bowe is sound, but he acknowledged that his model that gives LNP Flynn is probably giving the wrong result for Flynn. He included Flynn in his projection that got them 75 seats.

74 seats would make it really hard to govern. You'd be constantly at the mercy of the crossbench. The LNP would really struggle with this Senate as well.

 

[Badesumofu]

You could add Greens and Wilkie to ALP to get 74 they then need 1 more

LNP get first crack at forming a government because they are the current government. First they'd need to win a vote to get their chosen Speaker elected. Then they would need to survive a possible no confidence motion.

 

[Sydney Bloods]

If LNP finish 73 and ALP finish 72 do LNP get in or is it who can sway the minor parties to side with them.
Is ALP still a chance to anyone who knows politics well enough?

hard to say, my gut says no. But in that situation the only thing that matters is the pork.

 

[Allan Shorty]

Serious question - Would Antony Green be the most trusted man in the country?

Great question. Man or woman. pat rafter? Laurie oakes? No it's Antony.

 

[Hawk Dork]

hard to say, my gut says no. But in that situation the only thing that matters the pork.

Katter said he wanted barrels of it

 

[Allan Shorty]

We are looking at the same figures.

The reason the ABC seat count doesn't match the AEC seat count is that the ABC has figures for 4 seats that the AEC is categorising as 'not yet determined'. I don't know why the discrepancy on these 4 seats.

Three of these 'not yet determined' seats will go to L/NP and one to the ALP. The AEC not including these is the difference in the two counts.

- ABC has L/NP 70, plus ahead in 3 in doubt (so overall ahead in 73) with ALP 67 plus ahead in 5 in doubt (so overall ahead in 72).
- AEC has L/NP ahead in 70, ALP ahead in 71 - but add in the 4 not yet determined and the totals are the same (L/NP ahead in 73, ALP ahead in 72).

Antony green explains the discrepancy on his blog.

 

[Maggie5]

You could add Greens and Wilkie to ALP to get 74 they then need 1 more

Wilke has ruled himself out after his last experience with Labor.

 

[Hawk Dork]

Does it have to be more than a hand shake ?

 

[Donakebab]

Hm, no experience and I reckon Nick X will want his member very visible in debates, not as Speaker.

Katter would be interesting, especially if he uses his guns and whip.

Katter would love the power but it would keep him chained down in Canberra, so he'd be torn. Regardless he would be a nightmare for both parties, can just picture the carnage of how often people would get thrown out. As soon as a minority government became a possibility I thought McGowan would have been ideal for the NLP, however she's already rejected the notion of it. It really is hard to see who the best functioning option would be.

 

[Forward Press]

Katter would love the power but it would keep him chained down in Canberra, so he'd be torn. Regardless he would be a nightmare for both parties, can just picture the carnage of how often people would get thrown out. As soon as a minority government became a possibility I thought McGowan would have been ideal for the NLP, however she's already rejected the notion of it. It really is hard to see who the best functioning option would be.

Michael Danby? If Turnbull forms government he seems like an ALP member that could be convinced to defect, like the reverse Peter Slipper.

 

[Sydney Bloods]

Katter said he wanted barrels of it

in politics i believe barrels is a standard unit when dealing with the pork.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Nick Xenophon was a Young Liberal. Do we need further explanation?

We all do crazy things in our youth...

I assume if it came down to it Xenophon would side with the LNP? Don't really know much about his broader politics only on some individual issues.

 

[Donakebab]

Michael Danby? If Turnbull forms government he seems like an ALP member that could be convinced to defect, like the reverse Peter Slipper.

Rusted on Labor member for over 30 years and passionate supporter of the arts, not sure he'd sacrifice his ideals for the role in what will be such a toxic parliament. Would likely be career suicide, couldn't see him holding Melbourne Ports if he jumped ship. The role of Speaker is a bit of a poison chalice of late, personally I'd be staying away.

 

[nobbyiscool]

We all do crazy things in our youth...

I assume if it came down to it Xenophon would side with the LNP? Don't really know much about his broader politics only on some individual issues.

I think they probably lose credibility as a centrist, pragmatic party if they support a Coalition that is tearing itself apart. How could they themselves talk about this notion of "stability"?

I'm only guessing what NXT will do like everyone else though, they haven't really given us an indication one way or the other.

It's worth noting though that Windsor and Oakeshott both originally entered politics as Nationals, so history doesn't necessarily mean a lot.