2017 Ladder Predictions

[Lsta062]

Nope, I believe they have the worst list in the AFL (they have some good young talent but so did GWS in it's first few years). In a couple of years when Parish, Langford, McGrath etc start to develop, then I'd expect to see Essendon improve rapidly.

0 wins though? A top up Essendon side won 3 games last year. They have more than enough quality to win more than 3 games, let alone winning a single game.

But that is just my opinion.

 

[Bazza97]

0 wins though? A top up Essendon side won 3 games last year. They have more than enough quality to win more than 3 games, let alone winning a single game.

But that is just my opinion.

I think they will win something between 9-12 games this year I reckon.

I can see them having a pretty good start to the year and they do have a very generous fixture which includes playing the Lions and the Blues twice. Which by no means are guaranteened wins but the Bombers would be likely favourites in those games. I'm pretty confident they'll be a decent side this year even if they don't make the 8.

Richmond also has a pretty good fixture and it wouldn't surprise me if they do well to early on as well. Like the Bombers, you play the Lions and the Blues twice which should help. I can see the potential for the Bombers and the Tigers to start the year quite well and both teams I reckon could surprise if they maintain the momentum should their first 4-5 rounds of the season start on a bright note.

 

[Lsta062]

I think they will win something between 9-12 games this year I reckon.

I can see them having a pretty good start to the year and they do have a very generous fixture which includes playing the Lions and the Blues twice. Which by no means are guaranteened wins but the Bombers would be likely favourites in those games. I'm pretty confident they'll be a decent side this year even if they don't make the 8.

Richmond also has a pretty good fixture and it wouldn't surprise me if they do well to early on as well. Like the Bombers, you play the Lions and the Blues twice which should help. I can see the potential for the Bombers and the Tigers to start the year quite well and both teams I reckon could surprise if they maintain the momentum should their first 4-5 rounds of the season start on a bright note.

Yeah you are right IMO. I think both could have alright seasons if they start well. The first half of the season is key for Richmond to build that confidence and the second half of the season is key for Essendon since they may take a bit to gel as a playing group after a good portion sat out for the whole of last season.

 

[Bazza97]

Yeah you are right IMO. I think both could have alright seasons if they start well. The first half of the season is key for Richmond to build that confidence and the second half of the season is key for Essendon since they may take a bit to gel as a playing group after a good portion sat out for the whole of last season.

Yeah it wouldn't surprise me if the Bombers lose a bit of form as the season goes on. So like you said the second half of the season for the Dons is pivotal and if they maintain some good form they might have earlier in the year, it should go a long way.

Richmond should be a better side this year and it wasn't long ago that they made the finals 3 years in a row. They still have most of the players that last played finals in 2015 and some of your youth coming though is quite promising IMO.

It's been said you're going to be more attacking this year as a side which is good to hear and we've seen in the JLT some good glimpses of that.

Getting back to some of your younger players, I think a lot of them have genuine speed so it wouldn't surprise me if your recruiting staff in recent years have specifically targeted players with that attribute. Off the top of my head all of Rioli, Markov, Short, Butler, McIntosh, Menadue, Castagna and Bolton have that genuine speed and most of them should get their opportunities this year to impress. There are other younger players I'm sure that I haven't named who fit the category I mentioned above or who generally are promising players like C Ellis.

I'd be genuinely bullish of the Tigers this year and you should be able to get more than the 8 wins last year. I actually think quite a few of your younger players will be talked about a fair bit this year in positive terms by the media and by the end of this season I think you'll be in a pretty good position going forward.

If you find yourself in a position where you get close to finals for example and your team has got itself in a nice position moving forward, I'd hope Hardwick doesn't get sacked. Top 8 or winning a final shouldn't determine whether Hardwick stays, although the Tigers are aiming for finals which they should.

 

[theprospect]

Based on the ladder predictor I did:

1 - Sydney
2 - GWS
3 - Adelaide
4 - Hawthorn
5 - Bulldogs
6 - West Coast
7 - Geelong
8 - Melbourne 109.3%

9 - St. Kilda 108.7%
10 - Port Adelaide
11 - Gold Coast
12 - Collingwood
13 - Richmond
14 - Essendon
15 - North Melbourne
16 - Fremantle
17 - Brisbane
18 - Carlton

Have St. Kilda and Melbourne separated only by percentage, and only 2 games between 1st-6th

 

[catstorm]

This is what I got, Obviously Geelong Bias in there ( Unavoidable).
Maybe I've inflated the top teams a bit but it's hard to predict upsets at the start of the year and their will obviously be some so I just went with who i honestly thought would win the match without looking at the ladder.
Also I didn't do margins of victory so its all at 12 points I believe is the preset.

 

[CaptainHowdy87]

Interesting year ahead, anything can happen. Would love to see a real changing of the guard, sick of the Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney, West Coast mafia hogging the GF's. Can maybe see Hawks and Cats coming back a bit, but they'll probably prove me wrong. Melbourne to be the big improvers for me, they have a hard arse midfield now and Hogan might just explode. Everyone writing North off but I reckon we are better off now without the 'pensioners'. Apart from Harvey who was still contributing the rest were basically plodding along earning a pay cheque. And just for recreations sake to pass the time away I want the Pies and Tigers to be around the 2-6 mark after R8.

1 GWS
2 West Coast
3 Sydney
4 Western Bulldogs
5 Melbourne
6 Adelaide
7 North Melbourne
8 Hawthorn

9 Port Adelaide
10 Geelong
11 Essendon
12 Collingwood
13 St.Kilda
14 Gold Coast
15 Fremantle
16 Brisbane
17 Carlton
18 Richmond

GF. GWS V SYDNEY
Brownlow, Josh and Josh Kennedy to tie

North Melbourne will finish 7th on the ladder? Which great players did you sign in the off-season to replace Boomer, Wells and Dal Santo? Who is the ready-made backman there to replace Firrito? How old is Waite this year?

Don't get me wrong, you've still got plenty of good players but I don't know how you lose the experienced players you did, not pick up any ready-made replacements in the off-season and somehow go up a spot on the ladder and somehow you're expecting to finish above Hawthorn, Geelong, St Kilda and Fremantle? Even Port have a better list than North but for whatever reason they're a complete rabble. I wouldn't even be surprised if Collingwood and Essendon finished above North.

But forget about those other teams for the moment.....how do you suppose you'll finish above Hawthorn?

Do you have any players coming back from injury?

 

[Marc_Remillard]

Well done at completely missing the point I was making.

I also bet you would have bet that Gawn would have had the better of Hickey in the 2nd match-up in particular last year as well, would you not?

Do you have a gambing problem?

 

[drazah]

View attachment 348013

This is what I got, Obviously Geelong Bias in there ( Unavoidable).
Maybe I've inflated the top teams a bit but it's hard to predict upsets at the start of the year and their will obviously be some so I just went with who i honestly thought would win the match without looking at the ladder.
Also I didn't do margins of victory so its all at 12 points I believe is the preset.

Wait, we drew equal with West Coast and yet they go to the finals and we don't? ******* #vicbias.

 

[Forever North]

North Melbourne will finish 7th on the ladder? Which great players did you sign in the off-season to replace Boomer, Wells and Dal Santo? Who is the ready-made backman there to replace Firrito? How old is Waite this year?

Don't get me wrong, you've still got plenty of good players but I don't know how you lose the experienced players you did, not pick up any ready-made replacements in the off-season and somehow go up a spot on the ladder and somehow you're expecting to finish above Hawthorn, Geelong, St Kilda and Fremantle? Even Port have a better list than North but for whatever reason they're a complete rabble. I wouldn't even be surprised if Collingwood and Essendon finished above North.

But forget about those other teams for the moment.....how do you suppose you'll finish above Hawthorn?

Do you have any players coming back from injury?

Yeah I know, I know......it's my 'best case scenario' ladder prediction. Apart from the top 6 the rest of my ladder was basically which team came into my head next. Pointless thinking too much about it. It's just a laugh. If everything goes right for North and the planets align etc then we're a chance for top 8........same for Collingwood, Port, Essendon, St.Kilda, Freo and the rest of the mid range sides. A couple of key injuries, the youngsters don't come up, a scandal or two, a couple of early close losses then the season unravels instead. Anyway should be a very very even and exciting season. Good luck to your team.

 

[Donakebab]

My completely unbiased ladder prediction (ok slightly Hawthorn bias). I didn't realise how tough the draw is for Geelong and St Kilda. Don't see Essendon winning a game this year.

View attachment 347897

 

[Bokonon_]

View attachment 347907
here you go, flicked through all games with obvious saints bias and wanting hawks near the bottom because draft picks

no idea how pies made the 8 and no idea why geelong is so low

You might want to stay away from your board for a while?

 

[lmach]

 

[Papa G]

Can't see 4 teams winning 18 plus games. No team has won more than 17 in the past 3 seasons.

 

[kaiserchief13]

I agree, think we are better equip for that this season, we seem to have a lot of belief heading into this year that we can beat anyone and I haven't seen that in a while from the saints.

Based on what?

 

[Bazza97]

Can't see 4 teams winning 18 plus games. No team has won more than 17 in the past 3 seasons.

For that matter, this season I don't think we'll have 3 teams win 17 games which is what happened last year.

I can't see more than 1 team winning 17 games or more this year.

It should be a much more competitive year all round and this season it will get harder for those teams who were in the mix for the top 4 last year as I doubt that those top 7 teams in 2016 in particular, will have at least 15 wins by the end of this season.

The bottom 2 teams this year should win at least 4-5 games and not the 2-3 that some have calculated on their ladder predictors from the AFL website.

It can be fun using the ladder predictor for every round but I think it can lead to an imbalance in terms of how many wins are given to the top teams as well as the bottom teams (for example top 4 given at least 18 wins and bottom 2 given 2-3 wins).

Rather then using the ladder predictor, I just give an estimate of how many wins I feel each team will get and also give each team a minimum and maximum wins range to give a feel for how good I think every team can be for this year.

 

[tim_saints]

Based on what?

We've changed the way and schedule we travel for one, we also made it a priority over the off-season to look into how we can improve when we go interstate based off of last years results. They've done everything they can to prepare the players.

 

[Dez!]

I've learned one of two things in this thread:

- West Coast are going to be the best team if they're are finishing top 4 without NicNat and Lycett for extended periods of the season.

Or

- NicNat is overrated and doesn't have the impact Eagles supporters tell us he has.

Which is it?

 

[Bulldog Joe]

Can't see 4 teams winning 18 plus games. No team has won more than 17 in the past 3 seasons.

Issues with ladder predictor is that it just treats it as all or nothing.

When we look at how the squiggle does it, there is a consideration of a percentage chance. This would reduce the prediction of winning 18 games to something like an 80% chance and show the end result as only about 15 wins.

It would be terrific if we could find those unexpected results, but it will evolve and the top 4 is likely to be any team that can win 15 games.

 

[Coobk001]

My ladder predictor came up with

My Ladder:
GWS 18 4
WB 18 4
Geel 17 5
Syd 16 6
Adel 15 7
Melb 14 8
WCE 14 8
Port 13 9

Haw 12 10
StK 12 10
Freo 11 11
Nth 10 12
GC 9 13
Rich 8 14
Coll 6 16
Ess 3 19
Bris 1 21
Carlt 1 21




SANFL for fun:
Port
Eagles
Sturt
Adelaide
Central
Glenelg
Norwood
West
South

 

[Coobk001]

FWIW the Port board has voted for the following ladder:

GWS
Sydney
WB
WCE
Geel
Adel
=7th - StK/Port

Haw
Melb
GC
Freo
Collingwood
Rich
Ess
North
Bris
Carlton

 

[Bokonon_]

FWIW the Port board has voted for the following ladder:

GWS
Sydney
WB
WCE
Geel
Adel
=7th - StK/Port

Haw
Melb
GC
Freo
Collingwood
Rich
Ess
North
Bris
Carlton

The Port board didn't have Port on top? Surprises me!
Seems to be a thing on BF you shouldn't have blind faith in your club and I dont get it, frankly.

 

[Milanista28]

Coll 6 16
Ess 3 19
Bris 1 21
Carlt 1 21

If we win 3 or less games I will microwave my membership.

Taking it up a level from my BJ bet last season.

 

[LittleG]

If we win 3 or less games I will microwave my membership.

Taking it up a level from my BJ bet last season.

Will you also microwave your member-ship IF you finish below Carlton &/or Brisbane?

 

[Milanista28]

Will you also microwave your member-ship IF you finish below Carlton &/or Brisbane?

Mod edited what I actually wrote, But yes.

I understand the edit fwiw what I initially wrote was a little too far.