Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[ferrisb]

I agree with this, but how exactly do you sell that?

Come to Carlton. We're much shitter than Geelong and you'd have much less midfield support than other teams....

Carlton: The Land of Midfield Opportunities?

If you can excuse me for quoting myself, I thought of another recruiting slogan to entice the likes of Hopper that are down the pecking order.....

Carlton: when you are sick of mid strength.

As an extra benefit, we can license it to CUB...

 

[katmanblue]

Coffee or Tea?

Yes, please.

Exactly. Thank you, for the cookies.

 

[Pafloyul]

Pick 3 and 2018 1st for Kelly, Hopper & GWS second rounder

 

[dazdoggy]

Gibbs for Brad Crouch is a steal, then try and steal matt in a couple of years... I doubt Adelaide would let Brad Crouch go anyway.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

This Hopper talk actually has me a little concerned. Pick #3 is WAY over for him and I don't want them trying to add other second teir players to "even it up".

Quality over quantity ALWAYS.

Pick #3 should only be traded for Kelly.

Now, it still seems like best case scenario is Crows get #10 from the Dees for Lever, then we trade Gibbs for #10. Then we couple #3+#10 for Kelly and Hopper.

Will it be enough?

If not, we can take #3+#10 to the draft and hopefully get Rayner+D.Fogarty

 

[Iamcarlton]

This Hopper talk actually has me a little concerned. Pick #3 is WAY over for him and I don't want them trying to add other second teir players to "even it up".

Quality over quantity ALWAYS.

Pick #3 should only be traded for Kelly.

Now, it still seems like best case scenario is Crows get #10 from the Dees for Lever, then we trade Gibbs for #10. Then we couple #3+#10 for Kelly and Hopper.

Will it be enough?

If not, we can take #3+#10 to the draft and hopefully get Rayner+D.Fogarty

Wouldnt be too concerned about pick 3 for Hopper + ? wont happen . Similar to last year we didnt give up 5 for marchbank+ Pickett . We are smarter than the Jaksch Whiley for 7 deal these days .

 

[1981]

I expect SOS will try and orchestrate more deals where we get numerous players and or picks in return. This is not just because we don't currently have a second round pick but moreso because we still have a lot of players who can't use the ball and so we still have a large need to get a high number of safe ball handlers into the list. Basically we are still a way off where we need to get to and getting just one or two good prospects won't suffice.

 

[Govinda blueboy]

This Hopper talk actually has me a little concerned. Pick #3 is WAY over for him and I don't want them trying to add other second teir players to "even it up".

Quality over quantity ALWAYS.

Pick #3 should only be traded for Kelly.

Now, it still seems like best case scenario is Crows get #10 from the Dees for Lever, then we trade Gibbs for #10. Then we couple #3+#10 for Kelly and Hopper.

Will it be enough?

If not, we can take #3+#10 to the draft and hopefully get Rayner+D.Fogarty

100% agree pick 3 is only for Kelly, as for a package deal I would say #3 + #10 is way overs, I would be offering #3 + Casboult compo if we get it. My reasoning is purely because they are both out of contract, #3 is adequate compensation for an out of contract Kelly, I don't think we'd be burning any bridges if we forced their hand to accept that offer. As for Hopper, he's not shown enough to warrant #10, again I would think #22 is adequate.

All this talk about Kelly costing more than our first p1sses me off, yeah he's a great player but he's OOC, we'd be silly to pay more imo

 

[HBF]

Levi had a already checked out kind of look too him tonight.

I suspect his mind was elsewhere - his wife is very close to giving birth to their second child.

 

[HBF]

Must admit that Hopper has looked quite ordinary in recent weeks.
Could have his development stalled, as there's little he's doing now, that screams potential A-Grade.

Hasn't had a lot of continuity with his game being injured. Still think he's worth going after.

 

[Iamcarlton]

100% agree pick 3 is only for Kelly, as for a package deal I would say #3 + #10 is way overs, I would be offering #3 + Casboult compo if we get it. My reasoning is purely because they are both out of contract, #3 is adequate compensation for an out of contract Kelly, I don't think we'd be burning any bridges if we forced their hand to accept that offer. As for Hopper, he's not shown enough to warrant #10, again I would think #22 is adequate.

All this talk about Kelly costing more than our first p1sses me off, yeah he's a great player but he's OOC, we'd be silly to pay more imo

Juddy + Treloar were out of contract . Also i feel that players being OOC is overstated and doesnt make a lot of difference to their trade value if clubs are keen to keep good relations . If not then bridges are burnt and we are Essendon and hard to deal with . Pick 1 may have got Kelly with a swap of later picks . Pick 3 no way imo .

 

[Govinda blueboy]

Thought I'd try my hand at trade week, and this is what I came up with. I wanted to try and keep the trades as simple as possible( mainly because icbf doing more complicated ones ) and what I think is reasonable for both parties.

ASSETS

Gibbs
Casboult
Boekhorst
Jones* (valued at #15 - 1112 pts)

Pick 3(2234), 38(465), 56(194), 74(-)

TARGETS

Kelly
Hopper
Webb
Castagna
Balic

TRADES OUT

Gibbs to Adelaide = 10( Lever pick )
Casboult to FA = 22( tier 3 compo )
Boekhorst to Fremantle = Balic


TRADES IN

Kelly and Hopper = 3 & 22
OR if only Kelly or only Hopper, I've included a couple of options for the Kelly deal but I would prefer the #3 scenario.
Kelly = #3 or Jones* & 10 (2507 pts ~#2)
Hopper = 22
Castagna = 38
Webb = 56

SUMMARY

IN = Kelly, Hopper, Castagna, Webb, Balic, Pick 10
OUT = Gibbs, Casboult, Boekhorst, Picks 3, 38, 56
As I said these are fairly straightforward trades and it's basically 1 for 1, maybe SOS may look at packaging #3 & #10 to get an extra player but it looks unlikely.

Comments...

 

[Govinda blueboy]

Juddy + Treloar were out of contract . Also i feel that players being OOC is overstated and doesnt make a lot of difference to their trade value if clubs are keen to keep good relations . If not then bridges are burnt and we are Essendon and hard to deal with . Pick 1 may have got Kelly with a swap of later picks . Pick 3 no way imo .

I hear what you are saying but those 2 trades imo don't compare. Judd was one of the greatest players ever and Nafin was desperate and misjudged where they were at as a team. They gambled on where they would finish and lost, payed way over #1 in the end.

 

[rog1995]

Where is this Webb talk coming from?

 

[Arr0w]

If we were able to trade in some midfielder (Let's just leave Kelly aside for the moment) 3 of Hopper, Kennedy, Smith Balic, should we target Brander with pick 3?

 

[HARKER]

If we were able to trade in some midfielder (Let's just leave Kelly aside for the moment) 3 of Hopper, Kennedy, Smith Balic, should we target Brander with pick 3?

If Brander was seen to be a bullet-proof quality pick, whilst Cerra, Dow, Rayner somewhat speculative, then maybe.

Otherwise, I cannot see how or why we'd be drafting KPF's or KPD's.
KPF's just take so much time to develop and that's the quality ones and even then we have relative busts along the way. See TBoyd, McCartin, Schache.

I say relative busts and meaning performance, to date. None of the above have shown anything near what you'd expect from a pick #1.


EDIT: Just on KPF's; I'm surprised that we've largely dismissed the notion of Weitering settling into a forward role.
It didn't work out as we had planned this year, but should we just shelve the idea?

 

[HBF]

So, do we still de-list Boekhorst?

We'd be silly to de-list him, wouldn't we?

Would hang onto Boek for sure. Perhaps the penny has finally dropped with him, and he has finished the year pretty strongly.

 

[bluemahogany]

EDIT: Just on KPF's; I'm surprised that we've largely dismissed the notion of Weitering settling into a forward role.
It didn't work out as we had planned this year, but should we just shelve the idea?

I'm still on this idea

 

[HBF]

From memory Jaksch did not play a senior game this season. Based on that he cannot be on the list next season.

I can't see how KJ is on our list either. We already have alot of talls, and truthfully he'd be at the bottom of that list.
Suspect he'll realise in a few years that with all the talent he has, he just didn't apply himself properly.

 

[HARKER]

I'm still on this idea

It's just makes too much sense for me to let it go.
Imagine Weitering and Charlie running our forward line?
Add the likes of a matured JSilvagni and with some ferocious and quick smalls in Pickett and ......

I'm also not convinced we need to have a stay at home gorilla as the game may change.
If we do go down the path of more run, good luck keeping up with athletic, mobile forwards.

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

Does anyone know if exit interviews/delistings are scheduled for this week?

 

[HARKER]

Would hang onto Boek for sure. Perhaps the penny has finally dropped with him, and he has finished the year pretty strongly.

It's good to see Boekhorst extending his leg in the past few weeks.
Last year and in the early part of this year, the chipping game just didn't suit him.

We may yet trade him, but we won't lose him for nothing.

 

[Caj]

Agree.

I could see Hopper for us in 2018 injury free having a similar impact to what Jack Steele did this year.

Went from averaging 15 touches and 4 tackles a game in his first 2 years at GWS to around 23 touches and 8 tackles this year for St Kilda through a combination of maturing and more midfield time.

If you want to look at purely numbers, Josh Kelly had only averaged 17 touches a game up to the same stage of his career that Hopper is currently at.

Another thing to look at is he has never had more than 80% game time with the majority of games in the 60%s.

The amount of that which is actually spent playing midfield gets touched on, but is a valid point for someone who at this stage is a pure inside midfielder. I remember the Richmond game of 2015 when MM played Cripps half forward, and he barely touched it, won 1 clearance for the night, and was dropped the next week. By the end of the year he was one of the best young mids in the comp.

Will agree he has stagnated slightly this year, but that if anything that will work in our favour come trade time.

We have no idea how much this has to do with development, midfield time, injuries, or how much a decision he is facing can impact the form of a 20 year old.

It's hard to compare our second year players to Hopper, as only Cunners is a midfielder, but in comparison he has averaged just 12 touches a game from 11 games, and finished the year in the 2s in a side with no midfield, yet we are all (rightfully so) pleased with what he's produced......

Hopper has a much higher ceiling than Steele

 

[bluemahogany]

It's just makes too much sense for me to let it go.
Imagine Weitering and Charlie running our forward line?
Add the likes of a matured JSilvagni and with some ferocious and quick smalls in Pickett and ......

I'm also not convinced we need to have a stay at home gorilla as the game may change.
If we do go down the path of more run, good luck keeping up with athletic, mobile forwards.

Yep I still see so much of Nick Riewoldt in Weitering, the running capacity, the size and the strong marking. He actually played some great games up forward against Sydney, Essendon and Richmond, it wasn't like he was a disaster up there. His Sydney game in particular he took 8 marks and 17 possessions playing as a high CHF.

 

[zeeCFC]

It's just makes too much sense for me to let it go.
Imagine Weitering and Charlie running our forward line?
Add the likes of a matured JSilvagni and with some ferocious and quick smalls in Pickett and ......

I'm also not convinced we need to have a stay at home gorilla as the game may change.
If we do go down the path of more run, good luck keeping up with athletic, mobile forwards.

The pay off is huge but this year showed he's still a kid that needs to be given time to get comfortable. After a few shocking weeks he really got going down back in the end.

Long term I personally like McKay, SOS and Weiters fwd - Charlie midfield while ASOS, Jones, Marchbank, Plow and Macreadie rotate KPD