Opinion Pick 1... is Cam Rayner

So who do we take at Pick 1?


  • Total voters
    328

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I'm weighing up between Brayshaw and Dow on the assumption that Rayner will likely never be a fulltime midfielder. Dow seems a bit more raw and may have more upside.
I'd take the gamble on Dow Tbh, the raw potential is amazing.

Couldn't care less if a player is 'ready to play', with our list profile it doesn't matter.
 
I'd take the gamble on Dow Tbh, the raw potential is amazing.

Couldn't care less if a player is 'ready to play', with our list profile it doesn't matter.
Yep, we need blokes ready and busting at the seams, in 2 to 3 yrs time. When the older boys are on the slide.
 

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I was on the Dow train months ago but my biggest concern with him is that he just doesn't have the same class as LDU or Cerra for example in the clinches. He can win the loose ball very well, read the ball from the ruck is another strong point and his spread from the contest is great but his decision making while in close is a bit suspect. It's such a huge part of todays game to be able to pick out targets without turning it over while having a bloke hanging off you and getting corralled by 2 others... this is where I feel LDU/Cerra will shine.

Personality wise he is arguably the least likely to go home, and athletically he is off the charts for an inside mid. Worthy of a pick 1 selection and like others I think he will take a few years to com into his own. Will he be the best in the draft in 5 years time? Probably not but I feel as a player he would be on par with LDU as the best fit for what we need, arguably a nose ahead due to his better athletic abilities.
 
I was on the Dow train months ago but my biggest concern with him is that he just doesn't have the same class as LDU or Cerra for example in the clinches. He can win the loose ball very well, read the ball from the ruck is another strong point and his spread from the contest is great but his decision making while in close is a bit suspect. It's such a huge part of todays game to be able to pick out targets without turning it over while having a bloke hanging off you and getting corralled by 2 others... this is where I feel LDU/Cerra will shine.

Personality wise he is arguably the least likely to go home, and athletically he is off the charts for an inside mid. Worthy of a pick 1 selection and like others I think he will take a few years to com into his own. Will he be the best in the draft in 5 years time? Probably not but I feel as a player he would be on par with LDU as the best fit for what we need, arguably a nose ahead due to his better athletic abilities.

I'm not sure if I am misunderstanding you but I don't get that Dow is a better athlete than LDU? In what sense? When I think of what constitutes an athlete, LDU comes to mind much prominently than Dow.
 
I'm not sure if I am misunderstanding you but I don't get that Dow is a better athlete than LDU? In what sense? When I think of what constitutes an athlete, LDU comes to mind much prominently than Dow.
Dow's strong point is his acceleration and ability to burst out of a pack. He's just about the best player in the draft in that regard. That's what people are referring to when they talk about his athletic abilities.
I agree that LDU is just as good an athlete as Dow, if not better. He's tall, strong, agile and has decent acceleration. Almost the modern prototype sort of player.
 
I'm not sure if I am misunderstanding you but I don't get that Dow is a better athlete than LDU? In what sense? When I think of what constitutes an athlete, LDU comes to mind much prominently than Dow.

All these top kids are good athletes. It's athletes before footballers these days. None of the highlight videos of the top kids were very impressive, especially when you see Dangerfield's junior highlights.
 
I'm not sure if I am misunderstanding you but I don't get that Dow is a better athlete than LDU? In what sense? When I think of what constitutes an athlete, LDU comes to mind much prominently than Dow.
from standing to full pace Dow leaves LDU in the dust and from memory had the best agility testing in the preseason TAC results. It will be tough so stop Dow once he adds another 10kgs to his frame with that explosive power he can generate. LDU isn't not mug either but I feel Dow shades him in areas that we are desperate for.
 
Sorry for the delay mate! All these results are from preseason bar Brayshaw's - which are his combine results for 20m + agility.

20m:
Dow - 2.916s
LDU - 2.980s
Rayner - 2.982s
Brayshaw - 3.00s
D.Fogarty - 3.04s
Cerra - 3.051s
Constable - 3.052s
Clark - DNT

Agility:
Dow - 8.046s
LDU - 8.132s
Fogarty - 8.46s
Brayshaw - 8.30s
Rayner - 8.579s
Constable - 8.601s
Cerra - DNT
Clark - DNT

Beep:
Brayshaw - 15.6 beep (preseason)
Dow - 13.13 beep
LDU - 13.8 beep
Cerra - 13.7 beep
Fogarty - 12.10 beep
Constable - 12.9 beep
Rayner - 11.10 beep
Clark - DNT

Here are the results. Dow shades LDU in everything but what I have noticed from watching these kids play is that Dow plays at those levels whereas LDU just seems to cruise along a bit. Rayner, Dow, or LDU we can't lose if we draft the one who stays after 2 years. All good footballers.
 
LDU has shown little bursts of speed here and there. In the game vs Vic Metro he breaks out from the centre bounce and kicks a long bomb goal from outside 50. What impresses me most about him is his agility and a genuine marking threat. He's a big unit but moves through traffic really well so it's not like he's just been overpowering kids which would be shown up at the next level. He's my pick.

Dow's got genuine line breaker written all over him though, that's pretty great to watch.
 
LDU=Rayner > Dow > Cerra

Yeah, but so many good arguments to change that to some other combo.

I think I'll stop watching video packages and highlights. I end up too conflicted

First I was on LDU, changed my mind to Rayner and now I'm leaning towards Dow.:huh:


Whatever, I just hope and pray the club gets it right on draft night.
 

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Here are the results. Dow shades LDU in everything but what I have noticed from watching these kids play is that Dow plays at those levels whereas LDU just seems to cruise along a bit. Rayner, Dow, or LDU we can't lose if we draft the one who stays after 2 years. All good footballers.
Looking at that Dow might be slightly shading LDU but not by a lot. LDU is still pretty high on all of those measures with a bigger frame. Looks like both fill our needs pretty well
 
I feel like Dow is the best option in this draft. I think he would be clearly above LDU if he just had the frame right now; unfortunately, that’s not the case and he’s a bit skinny. He has time though, like Cluggs and all our other young guys.

We should gamble with his upside and ability, rather than whether or not he is ready to impact straight away.
 
I feel like Dow is the best option in this draft. I think he would be clearly above LDU if he just had the frame right now; unfortunately, that’s not the case and he’s a bit skinny. He has time though, like Cluggs and all our other young guys.

We should gamble with his upside and ability, rather than whether or not he is ready to impact straight away.
Yup, feel the same about Dow. If he had the mature body, he might get more love.
 
I know relying on highlights videos are fraught, but I'm scratching my head as to why he's not being talked about a bit more to go pick 1. Maybe it's because he seems to do a lot really well, but doesn't have one stand-out facet to his game (although I'd argue from what I've seen of it he reads the play faster than most). For mine, he plays a bit like Trent Cotchin.

I liken him a bit to Zac Merrett.
 
All these top kids are good athletes. It's athletes before footballers these days. None of the highlight videos of the top kids were very impressive, especially when you see Dangerfield's junior highlights.

Rankine's highlights are seriously impressive, it's just the wrong year to have pick 1. But we'll get someone who goes okay, chin up.
 
Since we can't pick Rankine and wait 12 months , Rayner would be my pick based on his kicking. LDU, Brayshaw and Dow are pretty average kicks, and Stephenson is just abysmal. I just think Rayner has a bigger upside, particularly with a bit of work on his tank.
 
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