Training 2017/2018 Pre-season Thread

[Huntercrow]

I posted this elsewhere, and it seems appropriate to re-post. Here's the list of top 20 picks since 2005 who played fewer than 10 games in their first two seasons. Yes a few come good (Tom Lynch, Robbie Tarrant). Most don't. Now yes Doedee can be one of the exceptions because of [insert reason] but it is not an easy task.

View attachment 450564

It also is why those wanting Francis need to come up with [insert reason] why he has not been good enough in the first two years but will come good. And the reality is there would have been many [inset reasons] for all of these players - "needs to build his tank/strength" "needs a couple good pre-seasons" etc

The point is not that such players cannot come good, but you need to come up with reasons why they have not - eg Harry Mckay - injury, Tim Broomhead - sickness and injury, Tom Lynch - playing for a top side that didn't need him.

And FWIW, I maintain that this is the make or break year for Doedee. He might not be in the starting 22 in Rd1, but if he does not play a stack of game this year, I think we need to start talking about him being a bust. At a certain point all the "oh he is a late starter to the game" talk becomes talk and he needs to show he is good enough. Again I am not saying he will be a bust - I do actually think he will play a lot this year, and I can see the logic of the "he is a special case and needed a couple years". But the longer that period goes on the more it sounds like an excuse for lack of ability rather than lack of experience playing the game.

He MUST play this year. And FWIW I think we should play him. Time to see what he has got.

EDIT - the same goes for Gallucci who does not have such excuses. This will be his second year. He must play more than 9 games or he goes on the list as well

EDIT - thanks to Kristof for noting Talia only played 9 games in his first two years. (0 in the first, 9 in the second) I added him into the table.

Talia was a special case. He came in very raw after Davis moved to GWS. This was also after Davis took over from Bock the previous season so he went from being 3rd or 4th in line after drafting to number 1 CHB after two seasons. Fortunately for the Crows he was up for it. Had Both Bock and Davis stayed with the club it's not really clear if Talia would have received an opportunity. I'm sure something would have presented eventually but his initial rise into defence was due to the 2 new clubs taking our best defenders. Things just fell his way and he nailed it.

 

[marty36]

aaa


Marty Doedee had a bad game, but not for his turnovers, PS inside football got that one wrong, he only had 16 disposals 11 kicks, 7 effective kicks 2 ineffective to 2 on 1 contest and 2 shockers.
His problem in that game was forced into the number 1 experienced defenders role and tried too hard to be everywhere, when Hartigan went down injured. and the back line was basically made up with top up players.

Edit, the Crows had 8 top ups playing that day

Didn’t read inside footy I was there whether it’s poor disposal or poor decision making it was in the last qtr when the bays rookie snook smashed him and we won the game, i was pretty happy for the bays to get a win mind you

JJ called it decision making on AA during the year or is it disposal that’s his Achilles heal but it’s pretty bad one to have as turnovers are coach killers


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Talia was a special case. He came in very raw after Davis moved to GWS. This was also after Davis took over from Bock the previous season so he went from being 3rd or 4th in line after drafting to number 1 CHB after two seasons. Fortunately for the Crows he was up for it. Had Both Bock and Davis stayed with the club it's not really clear if Talia would have received an opportunity. I'm sure something would have presented eventually but his initial rise into defence was due to the 2 new clubs taking our best defenders. Things just fell his way and he nailed it.

So how are statistical data supposed to capture these events ? ..... fact is they can’t , making them a nonsense

They’re only relevant where all collection points are equal to each other & it’s black and white to take out statistical bias

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Didn’t read inside footy I was there whether it’s poor disposal or poor decision making it was in the last qtr when the bays rookie snook smashed him and we won the game, i was pretty happy for the bays to get a win mind you

JJ called it decision making on AA during the year or is it disposal that’s his Achilles heal but it’s pretty bad one to have as turnovers are coach killers


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Give me one football player that hasn’t had a day to forget ..... I know it’s a popular phrase ATM , but was it an event or a trend with Doedee?

The other factor is he’s in the SANFL because he has parts of his game to develop
If his disposal was poor as some suggest .... I can assure you, Doedee would not have been taken by this club in the first round ..... it’s that fundamental

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Talia was a special case. He came in very raw after Davis moved to GWS. This was also after Davis took over from Bock the previous season so he went from being 3rd or 4th in line after drafting to number 1 CHB after two seasons. Fortunately for the Crows he was up for it. Had Both Bock and Davis stayed with the club it's not really clear if Talia would have received an opportunity. I'm sure something would have presented eventually but his initial rise into defence was due to the 2 new clubs taking our best defenders. Things just fell his way and he nailed it.

Concussions unexpectedly forced Scott Stevens out too

 

[1970crow]

Considering we are at the speculative point of the draft, that is a damn solid strike rate at this point.

I've got nothing to compare it to, but it looks a pretty handy effort from my perspective.

 

[Mego Red]

Give me one football player that hasn’t had a day to forget ..... I know it’s a popular phrase ATM , but was it an event or a trend with Doedee?

The other factor is he’s in the SANFL because he has parts of his game to develop
If his disposal was poor as some suggest .... I can assure you, Doedee would not have been taken by this club in the first round ..... it’s that fundamental

Considering he was runner up in the B&F, I would say the trend was towards excellence.

 

[DD#23]

Talia was a special case. He came in very raw after Davis moved to GWS. This was also after Davis took over from Bock the previous season so he went from being 3rd or 4th in line after drafting to number 1 CHB after two seasons. Fortunately for the Crows he was up for it. Had Both Bock and Davis stayed with the club it's not really clear if Talia would have received an opportunity. I'm sure something would have presented eventually but his initial rise into defence was due to the 2 new clubs taking our best defenders. Things just fell his way and he nailed it.

two ways of looking at this information:

1) oh geeze, aren't we lucky the guy we were earmarking for a delisting could actually play when were forced to include him after losing two first choice players.
or:
2) many of the footballers who miss out on careers every year would actually be more than capable of producing if the cards had fallen their way.

 

[DD#23]

two ways of looking at this information:

1) oh geeze, aren't we lucky the guy we were earmarking for a delisting could actually play when were forced to include him after losing two first choice players.
or:
2) many of the footballers who miss out on careers every year would actually be more than capable of producing if the cards had fallen their way.

to follow up on this idea with a visual representation:

 

[Redleg Crow]

Picks 40-60 have been good not so good for us from memory.

2004 40 Ivan Maric 77
56 Chris Knights 96

2005 48 Alan Obst 0

2006 48 David MacKay Adelaide 185

2007 58 Tony Armstrong 14

2008 44 Rory Sloane Adelaide 165
60 Thomas Lee 0

2009 45 Sam Shaw 24

2010 no picks in this range J Lyon pick 61

2011 41 Mitchell Grigg 20
46 Nicholas Joyce 0

2012 No picks in this range

2013 46 Riley Knight Adelaide 31

2014 43 Mitch McGovern Adelaide 36
58 Harry Dear Adelaide 0

Others too soon to rate

Was thinking more about how many games 2nd and 3rd round picks play in their first 2 years on average. Seems clear the 1st rounders on average should be playing at least 10+ in those first two year or the signs are not good, but you'd expect those further down the list to maybe take longer. Though Sloane for eg played 15 games in his first 2 seasons

 

[Redleg Crow]

I posted this elsewhere but I'll post again since we've got onto draft picks. (bold = still playing for us), the games played is game for the Crows. No point judging our effectiveness of drafting a player to us by including games after he has buggered off.

 

[Redleg Crow]

So how are statistical data supposed to capture these events ? ..... fact is they can’t , making them a nonsense

They’re only relevant where all collection points are equal to each other & it’s black and white to take out statistical bias

They're not nonsense they just need to be read in context There's no statistical bias unless you believe certain type of players who are selected in the first round are more or less likely to play over 10 games in their first 2 seasons, and there appears no evidence of that that I can see.

No stat explains everything but if you see a pattern - eg that first rounders who play fewer than 10 games in their first 2 seasons generally don't go on to have good careers, then that is worth examining. There may be good explanations - eg injury - why a player is/was an exception, but if not, you need to start really coming up with excuses for holding out hope that he will come good.

I'm not saying you cut someone on the basis of this number of games, just that it is a generally good indicator. Games played is always a pretty good indicator of how someone is doing. Now sure for eg CEY has missed a season, but he has been on the list now for 6 season and has played just 14 games. Only one other player drafted in 2011 has played fewer games and is still on a list - Fraser McInnes (Eagles)

Now maybe he'll come good this year. But cripes, history suggests if he does he will be one of the all-time late bloomers.

 

[Footypie32]

So how are statistical data supposed to capture these events ? ..... fact is they can’t , making them a nonsense

They’re only relevant where all collection points are equal to each other & it’s black and white to take out statistical bias

So statistics are no good because they can contain statistical bias. But opinion is fine because that just includes good old fashion personal bias?

 

[Redleg Crow]

Pretty good questions to answer:

WHO IS the jury out on this year?
We threw the question to you to find out who is under pressure and your club's biggest question marks in 2018.
Read on for some of the best responses.

The resilience of the group. Will the players live up to the their stated determination to reverse the Grand Final result?
- David Porter, Myrtle Bank SA

Whether we'll still love Rory Sloane in 12 months' time.
- Daniel McCann, Adelaide SA
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-01-13/the-jurys-out-your-clubs-biggest-question-mark-in-2018

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Pretty good questions to answer:

WHO IS the jury out on this year?
We threw the question to you to find out who is under pressure and your club's biggest question marks in 2018.
Read on for some of the best responses.

The resilience of the group. Will the players live up to the their stated determination to reverse the Grand Final result?
- David Porter, Myrtle Bank SA

Whether we'll still love Rory Sloane in 12 months' time.
- Daniel McCann, Adelaide SA
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-01-13/the-jurys-out-your-clubs-biggest-question-mark-in-2018

Playing group wise:
- Atkins
- Knight
- Milera
- Seedsman (can he stay injury free)
- Hampton

I don't include Doedee & Gallucci as basically 1st year of playing afl (less a game).

 

[Thetrader15]

Playing group wise:
- Atkins
- Knight
- Milera
- Seedsman (can he stay injury free)
- Hampton

I don't include Doedee & Gallucci as basically 1st year of plating afl (less a game).

Doedee - would need to get a semi regular game this year

 

[WaynesWorld19]

They're not nonsense they just need to be read in context There's no statistical bias unless you believe certain type of players who are selected in the first round are more or less likely to play over 10 games in their first 2 seasons, and there appears no evidence of that that I can see.

No stat explains everything but if you see a pattern - eg that first rounders who play fewer than 10 games in their first 2 seasons generally don't go on to have good careers, then that is worth examining. There may be good explanations - eg injury - why a player is/was an exception, but if not, you need to start really coming up with excuses for holding out hope that he will come good.

I'm not saying you cut someone on the basis of this number of games, just that it is a generally good indicator. Games played is always a pretty good indicator of how someone is doing. Now sure for eg CEY has missed a season, but he has been on the list now for 6 season and has played just 14 games. Only one other player drafted in 2011 has played fewer games and is still on a list - Fraser McInnes (Eagles)

Now maybe he'll come good this year. But cripes, history suggests if he does he will be one of the all-time late bloomers.

You’ve obviously not had experience in Market Research

 

[Redleg Crow]

Playing group wise:
- Atkins
- Knight
- Milera
- Seedsman (can he stay injury free)
- Hampton

I don't include Doedee & Gallucci as basically 1st year of plating afl (less a game).

Yep, I'm with those 5. I'll add Greenwood. I think he can be a fricken star, but I worry about his tank. I'd like to see him really run out games rather than play a blinder of a first quarter and then go unsighted.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

So statistics are no good because they can contain statistical bias. But opinion is fine because that just includes good old fashion personal bias?

Statistics are fine if used correctly .... I’ve used non stop in certain areas of business .... in other areas the bias’s of the subjects would in effect render the data contaminated

As said, in footy, I use statistics religiously for SuperCoach or reviewing careers retrospectively
What the can’t do is measure player development, motivation, positional impacts, and lastly the game styles that vary club by club

But don’t let me stop you

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Yep, I'm with those 5. I'll add Greenwood. I think he can be a fricken star, but I worry about his tank. I'd like to see him really run out games rather than play a blinder of a first quarter and then go unsighted.

So what do his statistics tell you ? ..... star or bust

 

[ad victoriam]

Very Selective

these guys get paid to get it right we are weekend warriors, what was hamish doing thsi weekk what will he be doing in March or April

He goes to work to ensure he gets it right, not to play crosswords

Yes you are very selective.
Let wait until all the players gets a chance to showcase their talents.
In 4 years lets look at Doedee vs Burton.
Same time we can compare Gallucci to Haywood. Pohokle to Graham
All 3 of the player you select have been lucky to get selected in teams that had vacancies for them to play in.

Would Burton made the Crows Forward Line in the last 2 years maybe in place of Otten. Backline again in place of Otten. Remember he was a forward when drafted.
Tell me who would have Graham displace from the side in the last 6 games of the year. Douglas, Atkins, Knight,
What Position would have Haywood played in the Crows side. CC, Knight, Betts.

Wait until these player has received a chance to Play a decent amount of Games. before you draw a comparison.




Also, what are your views on McGovern over Caleb Daniels.

 

[ad victoriam]

So what do his statistics tell you ? ..... star or bust

Injury prone at this time with Shoulder and leg and Foot issues. hopefully, he gets some reliability into his body.

 

[Redleg Crow]

So what do his statistics tell you ? ..... star or bust

Mature age rookies are a pretty small sample size across the AFL, but the stats say you're lucky to get 1 rookie pick a year who goes on to play 50+ games.
In Hugh's year it was him, Keath, Hunter and Beech. Beech is already gone, and Hunter I have no idea about, but it was a surprise he was retained.
If Hugh and Keath both play 50+ our recruiters will have done bloody well.

But as for Hugh. I think he can be a star based on his defensive mindset.
Of the 435 players who played 10 or more games last year, Hugh had the 6th lowest disposal:tackle ratio - he laid a tackle every 2.4 disposals. CC for example who was highlighted for his defensive pressure laid a tackle for every 3.2 disposals.

Here's the top 35 - Selwood not surprisingly is at the top:



Hugh was also high up in the tackles per game rankings:


So he is clearly a top level defensive midfielder - the question is whether he can develop the attacking aspect. He averaged only 15.9 disposals a game - only a bit more than Milera and that will also require a better tank than he has. So it was a pity he needed surgery this pre-season

Whether he will be a star? What is a star? He certainly can be a star defensive mid - and surely he is one we should be thinking of as a tagger should the need arise. But as he also has pretty low numbers for turnovers, he's also one you'd want to get more of the ball.

At any rate, for a rookie pick he is clearly paying overs for us already.

 

[fabs33]

One of the pitfalls of statistics that people regularly stumble in is the idea that the probability of something happening correlates with the frequency in which it's happened in the past, often that's not the case, especially so in complex situations with various variables unaccounted for.

Picture a perfectly normal coin, I toss this coin ten times and eight of the results are heads. Does anyone believe the odds of an eleventh toss are 80% likely to result in another head? Obviously not, there's two sides and the odds are always 50% for each possibility.

In regards to Doedee making it, or any other player for that matter, the odds are unknown and there's not much point in fretting over what happened in the past.

 

[Redleg Crow]

One of the pitfalls of statistics that people regularly stumble in is the idea that the probability of something happening correlates with the frequency in which it's happened in the past, often that's not the case, especially so in complex situations with various variables unaccounted for.

Picture a perfectly normal coin, I toss this coin ten times and eight of the results are heads. Does anyone believe the odds of an eleventh toss are 80% likely to result in another head? Obviously not, there's two sides and the odds are always 50% for each possibility.

In regards to Doedee making it, or any other player for that matter, the odds are unknown and there's not much point in fretting over what happened in the past.

But unlike a coin toss, a player's performance last season does have an impact on his performance next season. A player who played 20+ games in 2017 is more likely to play 20+ games in 2018 than a player of the same age with no injuries who played 0 in 2017. Footy players are not inanimate objects being tossed or some random number generator like a roulette wheel.

David Mackay has played 185 games and polled 1 Brownlow vote. Do you think the odds of him polling in his next game have not changed over the course of his career? I'd also say the odds of him polling in his next game are longer than for Sloane to do so. And that is based on the frequency with which it has happened in the past.

The odds on footy are pretty well known - Players who are picked in the first round are more likely on average to play more games than players picked in the 2nd or 3rd round. And draft picks who play 20 games in their first 2 seasons are historically more likely to have a better careers than one who has played 0 games.

The issue is when you assume the average applies to all players and assume that longer odds means 0 chance. Given their first 2 years the odds of Burton for eg playing 100 games would be shorter than for Doedee. But that doesn't mean Doedee won't play 100 games, just that you'd be more likely to bet on Burton.

I'm just noting that he is taking a more unusual route towards becoming a regular than do other first round picks.

I think given his background and injury issues his having not played any games in his first 2 years is not that big of an issue. But I maintain, if we're still having this discussion in a year's time, people who are sure he is going to be a gun will need to work a lot harder to make their case.