Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

[THE_GUN]

I want Shai Bolton, Coniglio (already looks checked out), and Billings in 2020. How good does our side look.

Thomas Jones Marchbank
Docherty Weitering Simpson
Walsh SPS Coniglio
Kreuzer Cripps Dow
McGovern Curnow Billings
Bolton Mckay Cuningham

Stocker Fisher Silvagni Setterfield

Can’t fit in: O’Brien, Kennedy, Plowman, gibbons, Casboult, Ed, Murphy, willo, Newman, Garlett, Pickett, TDK.

Out of contract and blues would be mad not to chase him, He will be 21 next year and 3 years in the system and primed , Will be a player

 

[Benaly28]

Small forwards are obvious what we lack.Are there any in the mid season draft that we are chasing?Ive heard Dunkley is worth a look.Is he a mid or forward?

 

[Jeremias]

Small forwards are obvious what we lack.Are there any in the mid season draft that we are chasing?Ive heard Dunkley is worth a look.Is he a mid or forward?

My understanding is he’s a big-bodied mid who can push forward.

Not dissimilar to his brother who I’ve previously posted about chasing.

 

[Benaly28]

Will Brodie is out of contract come seasons end and is out of favour at the GC for unknown reasons, his uncle is our head recruiter and it was rumoured he wanted a trade last year.

What is his trade value now he isn't getting game time?
Could he be of similar impact to Scrimshaw?

I rated him in his draft year and he has shown in his limited games that he can find a lot of the ball, at the moment he would be a cheap get and is in a good age group although hasn't played much.

If we were to trade our 1st pick and player like Brodie would allow us to still bring talented kids through the door.

Pass on Brodie.Cant get a game hasn’t established himself yet and we need mature senior players not anymore young players,we have an abundance.

 

[Benaly28]

My understanding is he’s a big-bodied mid who can push forward.

Not dissimilar to his brother who I’ve previously posted about chasing.

Thank you.

 

[CFC18]

We're 'lucky' to have leaders in Cripps & Docherty
Seems patently obvious that the captaincy hasn't done Cripps any harm at all and Docherty is simply a born leader.

What has that got to do with List Management? Quite a bit actually.
Quite a bit in terms of attracting players to our club and after a sit down and chat with those two guys, one would think.

After chatting to those two older guys (24 & 25) you look at the other end of the age scale and see players Walsh, Weitering, Dow, CCurnow etc.

We may not be travelling fantastically right now, but the sell to possible recruits shouldn't be too hard at all.

Players and their managers will not be looking through the same lens we do - even those that may look at us positively will still be conservative about our potential.

Should we end up with half a dozen wins in the previous two seasons, we'll be a very tough sell. Our best player and biggest selling point has also not committed beyond becoming a FA in two years.

Still, you're spot on that this is the approach to take. We embarrassed ourselves with the whole jet situation last year.

 

[windows1]

A lot of people mention Setterfield but to be honest, its just hope. He hasn't shown that he will amount to anything yet and all his hype is based around his junior footy.
At least you are talking cost of bringing him across, rather than saying he's not good enough. He is in a good cost range for me, im not sure he commands a 1st round pick so anything outside of that id be very happy.

He would be great in our midfield currently as i don't see SPS or Dow or Walsh for that matter playing the same. If Kennedy comes on there is no need but im not hopefully on that one.

What? Hope? Do you watch closely? Honestly WHAT? Setterfield is playing with zero preseason. You get that right? Started joining the full training in like Feb. missed a year of footy. Has no conditioning behind him at all. It’s incredible he is playing afl. And yet he’s hard at it, chases, clean hands and his disposal is getting better.

I’m stunned. I’m not sure there’s a young player other than Walsh I’m more confident in. Just needs to get through the year. Then big preseason. Then next year will be a huge lift. Then again big preseason and he’s an AA.
Bank on it.

 

[windows1]

No-one has a fully fit team.

At some point we have to address this. We've done an utterly atrocious job of adding established, veteran players in the last few years.
Gone: Lamb, Sumner, Kerridge, Smedts, Palmer, Wright, Alex Silvagni, Mullett, Shaw, Bugg, O’Shea
Going, probably at seasons end: (literally unplayable in an AFL game): Pickett (injury), Garlett, Lobbe, Lang, Fasolo,
Actually playable: Marchbank, Plowman, Setterfield, Newman, McGovern
Backup at best: Phillips,
At full strength, we'd have 5 players going in our team. From 24 selections. These weren't speculative picks. They were guys in the 22-24 age bracket, players where you have seen what they can do, and who should have been entering their prime. A success rate of 15% is horrific in that respect.

We have done a horrendous job with rookie and late picks over the same time period. We've taken older veterans who are mostly gone/going, or projects with almost zero AFL skills who can't contribute.
Gone: Glass-McKasker, Galluci, Korcheck, ASOS, Sheehan, McDaid, Bugg,
Going (shown nothing to suggest they are AFL standard): Polson, LeBois, Garlett, Goddard, Cottrell
Unplayable project players: Macreadie, Kerr, TDK, Schumacher, O'Dwyer, Ben Silvagni, Owies,
Have actually contributed to an AFL game: Williamson,
Again, 1 AFL standard player from 20 picks across 4 years.

To understand why losing 4 guys to injury rendered us a basket case today, those lists provide the answer. Oh, and the afl gave us priority access to state league players too. We have them away for essentially nothing.

As a comparison, across the same time period Geelong have added the following with veterans and late picks (without using a first round pick for any):

Scott Selwood, Zac Smith, Sam Menegola, Wylie Buzza, James Parsons, Tom Stewart, Esava Ratugola, Quinton Narkle, Zach Guthrie, Tim Kelly, Charlie Constanble, Gryan Miers, Luke Dahlhaus, Gary Rohan, Tom Atkins, Jake Kolodjashnij, Jack Henry

12 of those players played today, in a game they put themselves clear on top of the ladder. They’ve had some misses too, but if were even halfway to that we would have been a lot more competitive today.

Oh, and we gave up pick 1 in next year’s draft for pick 19 and what looks like it could be pick 15 or so.

What’s done is done, but we can’t keep ignoring this. It’s a pretty awful record...

This is dribble. It’s the worst piece of analysis I’ve ever seen. To bracket players like TDK and Ben S as you have is a joke. You create a long list of Cats players as if they are all good- I wouldn’t have MOST of those guys. Menegola is C grade. Whylie Buzza? Are you for real? Constable is as slow as a wet week. Narkle? I mean do you just throw any old name in to make the list longer?

Mathematically the probability of success is demonstrated by the historical success of players picked at different ranges of the draft. This success is converted mathematically into the Points system that is used for father son and academy selections.

It’s therefore a comprehensive and factual representation. You need 3 third round picks to equate to one late first rounder.

Better eg? You need about TEN late picks (say around 60) to give you the value and probability of a mid first rounder.

SO the reason we do poorly with late picks is because ON AVERAGE OVER TIME all clubs do.

The fact we have Setterfield Kennedy McGovern Marchbank Plowman TDK Williamson Macreadie (I’ve hope for) Jack and Ben Silvagni Cuningham Fisher (if you’re throwing in Kelly as evidence I’m throwing in Cunners and Fish) Gibbons and Newman without a single top 20 pick amongst them being used is enormous credit to sos and BETTER ThAN AVERAGE.

Have there been errors? Of course. Most late picks and rookie players- bar far and away most - do not make it.

Which btw sos knows. Which is why he trades his late picks and often second rounders. Gets bagged on here for trading second rounders for MCG. Anyone bagging him for that on Saturday? Yeah didn’t think so.

Late picks don’t work. Which is why sos traded out players for early picks. Giving him any credit for that? Cc? McKay? Yeah didn’t think so.

He’s put together the best 24 and under list in the history of the afl. Yep. Best ever.

And we whinge.

SHUT UP.

 

[thylacine60]

window slammed shut - that is all.............

 

[windows1]

Agree re Bugg.

The frustrating thing is I look at the list now and think ok xyz are under performing who do we bring in and you immediately cross off a number of players as they are too young or not ready.

With such a young list why did we take more young players!!!! Even a player like Jarryd Lyons who ended up at Brisvegas should have been considered. Not a jet probably won't be around in 2 years but at least he wouldn't get annihilated around the ball.

A ruckman like Darcy Fort again I don't expect the second coming of John Nichols but relying on Kruzer and Phillips who are both injury prone and Phillips still a prospect at best (at the start of the year his form is terrible now) was always insanity.

Which young player we took with any value (ie a first or second round pick) do you not want?

Sos tried and nearly succeeded in getting Shiel. I’m glad he didn’t. Which C grade mid floating around would get a game in our side? Kennedy? Can’t get a game. WHO? Which mid? Like there’s a million GOOD mature age mids just sitting out there are there? There’s a heap of s**t ones. Give me Paddy Dow 18.5 possesions a game instead of Sam Plodendola any day.

 

[windows1]

window slammed shut - that is all.............

The whinging has to end. It really does. I don’t really understand how any supporter can’t see what’s happening here. Do the basic math. Think about what the strategy was: build for a flag. You want top up players and so on? Go barrack for the saints or north or some other B grade side who will never do s**t. Im
Glad sos had the courage. We all will be. Did I lose faith and patience? Sure. But then I saw Sam. And then I saw how much fitter Russell got them. And then I have seen every single one of these guys improve this year:

Jack
Dow
Sps
Fish
Mckay
Cunners
Crippa
Plow
Marchy
Weiters

And we bring in Setters and stocker and mcg and Walsh and Newman and Gibbons. All make an impact.

What’s freaky, what never seems to get celebrated, is how amazingly successful sos has been. Weiters CC McKay Cunners Jack and Plowman. That was ONE year’s additions. And then? Screw it. I’ll go add Marchy (how good was he Sat?) SPS Fish Willo and Macreadie the next. Am I done? Nah. I’ll go add Dow LOB Kennedy TDK (just watch this space) the next. That’ll do yeah? No. I’ll go add Stocker Walsh MCG (oh for sure he’s not worth second rounders huh???? Hahahahahahaha. Idiots) and Gibbons and Setters.

We play THIRTEEN 1-4 year players every week. Most teams play 3-5.

I’m wrapt we are this young. Wrapt. They are getting great experience. They may have lost plenty but they’ve been ‘beaten’ once.

Next year with maturation, better luck with injuries and maybe one mature age recruit we will have more like 6 one-four year players playing.

It’s one more year. Also: we will win more than we lose for the rest of THIS year. Despite the injuries. I’m certain. So is it actually THAT bad?

 

[thylacine60]

no.........no it isn't..........pretty sure.........

 

[windows1]

Well I would like to think questions are being asked of a team that is 1 win and 6 losses, having just been smashed by North Melbourne.

* me. We should start a new thread:

The ‘I think SOS is s**t thread and when we play finals next year and win flags thereafter I will hand in my Bigfooty poster card citing I have no idea what I’m talking about.’

Be frustrated at losing. Heck be sick of it even. But be smart. Analyse what’s going on. Sos came to a club with a shocking list. Shocking. He had two choices: top up and become mediocre. Or bottom out and rebuild. Thank * he did the latter.

We will ALL be eternally grateful for what he’s done. I’m enjoying this year. I can see what’s happening. There’s so much to like. I have 5 minutes of disappointment many weeks when we lose. But I go back to the reality of the youth / injury combo we’ve had and I enjoy it again.

Footy is about hope. I ask you this: who has more Hope than us?????

 

[windows1]

Marchbank and Plowman for a second rounder to get back into draft would be a reasonable option. Dont see either in side long term.

You sure??

 

[CFC18]

What? Hope? Do you watch closely? Honestly WHAT? Setterfield is playing with zero preseason. You get that right? Started joining the full training in like Feb. missed a year of footy. Has no conditioning behind him at all. It’s incredible he is playing afl. And yet he’s hard at it, chases, clean hands and his disposal is getting better.

I’m stunned. I’m not sure there’s a young player other than Walsh I’m more confident in. Just needs to get through the year. Then big preseason. Then next year will be a huge lift. Then again big preseason and he’s an AA.
Bank on it.

Even discounting his setbacks, he looks incredibly composed with the ball and creates time for himself. Not all players with these traits become great players, but most great players have these traits.

 

[windows1]

Our midfield is ridiculously young and inexperienced...no other club has as even close to the number we have in their best 22.

With Murphy looking like he's finished, we do need a big fish mid like Coniglio. Brisbane landed Neale so it could happen.
Need another senior gun leader to stand up for us in the middle with Cripps, and take some of the burden off our young mids.

It really is a bit unfair on each of our young mids...compare to a young player getting a game for teams like Geelong and Collingwood...they are surrounded my mature superstars, get fed easy ball and just have to play their role. Ours are surrounded by other young, inexperienced kids so it just makes it tough on all of them.

Any urgent mid recruiting we do at the end of this year is a one year need move. One year.

After next year:
Cripps Cunners SPS Fisher and Setterfield are > 4 year players. Dow and LOB are 4th year players. Stocker and Walsh 3rd year. Midfield isn’t ‘too young’ at all in 2021. Fine if we recruit a mid but it won’t be urgent for anything more than next year.

 

[thylacine60]

qualms I have regarding the saddler = 0

 

[windows1]

While we’re at it looking for strong bodied recently delisted players who’d get a game now, add Gowers and Holman.

Rubbish

 

[windows1]

Question for those constantly complaining whinging and whining about how badly we need ‘mature aged mids’:

Who are all the mature ages mids who are out there better than Eddie C, Gibbons and Kennedy - none of whom can get a regular run in our midfield? Who are all the mids we passed on with our late picks that are better? Just a brief run down would be good.

SHUT UP

 

[windows1]

Probably

He did though stutter in that key statement. "We're probably looking for some...some...some...small forwards at the moment."

Probably? Of course you're looking for them. They're hiding under SOS's desk because they're not in our squad Teaguey.

Like the biggest problem on our list is....small forwards. Pick a club. I’ll find ya a weakness. Pick any club. Our weakness is small forward? Who gives a s**t.

We ain’t losing because we don’t have small forwards. We are losing because we are SO young. And I’m ******* fine with that.

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Put it out with the dark sun glasses.

Yep.

 

[windows1]

Note to Brendan Bolton:

If Marc Murphys poor form, disposal and impact continue, see the example set earlier by Don Pyke and now Alastair Clarkson.

Hilarious that this s**t continues. Happy with him on the weekend? I wonder if poor old Tom Phillips has copped this s**t week in week out? They play the EXACT same role - outside wing. Look up their stats. Almost identical. Murph is the least of our problems. But hey, let’s focus on him again and again and again.

 

[windows1]

I know exactly what experience means. Again, I think you have over hyped the talent we have on the list. I don't believe its as good as you try and sell to us everyday.

Yes it is.

 

[windows1]

How do you know what will develop into " quality experience"?
so much young we've had that looked like quality didn't develop into what we were hoping for!

there's nothing about winning 3 games of football over a year and a half that screams anything different

I mean you need to take a wait and see approach

No he doesn’t. He sees what you can’t. He’s enjoying what you don’t. He gets what you never will.

 

[windows1]

I know. Still it will be 7 years imo. 6 at best

Nope. After this coming weekend for the rest of the year we win more than we lose. And then that improves next year. Soap is too conservative.

I’m not called windows for no reason. I see through things.

Trust me.