Draft Watcher Davo-27's 2020 u18 Draft Watch

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Power Rankings
1. Will Phillips - Oakleigh - 180cm 80kg
2. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan - GWV/Oakleigh - 195cm 90kg
3. Logan McDonald - Perth - 197cm 86kg
4. Denver Grainger-Barras - Swan Dist - 194cm 78kg
5. Elijah Hollands - Murray - 189cm 85kg
6. Riley Thilthorpe - West Adel - 201cm 100kg
7. Archie Perkins - Sandringham - 188cm 79kg
8. Braeden Campbell - Sydney A - 181cm 75kg
9. Tanner Bruhn - Geelong - 183cm 74kg
10. Lachlan Jones - WWT - 186cm 89kg
11. Heath Chapman - West Perth - 193cm 81kg
12. Reef McInnes - Oakleigh - 193cm 86kg
13. Oliver Henry - Geelong - 188cm 77kg
14. Nathan O'Driscoll - Perth - 187cm 78kg
15. Nikolas Cox - Northern - 200cm 87kg
16. Jackson Callow - Tas - 194cm 100kg
17. Eddie Ford - Western - 189cm 83kg
18. Tom Powell - Sturt - 183cm 74kg
19. Jack Carroll - East Frem - 187cm 76kg
20. Kaine Baldwin - Glenlg - 193cm 90kg
21. Brandon Walker - East Frem - 183cm 75kg
22. Oliver Davis - Tas - 182cm 75kg
23. Errol Gulden - Sydney A - 175cm 75kg
24. Jack Ginnivan - Bendigo - 183cm 77kg
25. Luke Edwards - Glenlg - 188cm 83kg
26. Finlay Macrae - Oakleigh - 186cm 78kg
27. Brayden Cook - South Adel - 189cm 82kg
28. Bailey Laurie - Oakleigh - 179cm 78kg
29. Caleb Poulter - WWT - 192cm 79kg
30. Connor Downie - Eastern - 185cm 82kg
31. Sam Berry - Gippsland - 181cm 80kg
32. Joel Western - Claremont - 172cm 68kg
33. Zac Dumesny - South Adel - 186cm 80kg
34. Brodie Lake - NT/Peel/Central Dist - 185cm 79kg
35. Blake Coleman - Brisbane A - 180cm 79kg
36. Zane Trew - Swan Dist - 188cm 80kg
37. Zach Reid - Gippsland - 202cm 83kg
38. Cody Brand - Calder - 196cm 87kg
39. Shannon Neale - Sth Frem - 202cm 91kg
40. Charlie Lazzaro - Geelong - 179cm 73kg
41. Isiah Winder - Peel - 180cm 79kg
42. Taj Schofield - WWT - 178cm 72kg
43. Carter Michael - Brisbane A - 188cm 74kg
44. Zavier Maher - Murray - 185cm 82kg
45. Lachlan Carrigan - Sandringham - 191cm 78kg
46. Max Heath - Sandringham - 203cm 94kg
47. Maurice Rioli Jnr - NT - 173cm 73kg
48. Harry Sharp - GWV - 183cm 69kg
49. Jake Bowey - Sandringham - 175cm 67kg
50. Clayton Gay - Dandenong - 184cm 78kg

a couple of state league players i think might get drafted, Tom Highmore and Jackson Ramsay(not going to speculate where they might go).

others outside of the top 50 include, Seamus Mitchell, Luke Pedlar, Henry Walsh, Kalin Lane, Liam McMahon, Sam Collins, Josh Green, Campbell Edwardes, Jackson Cardillo, Jack Avery, James Borlase, Lochlan Jenkins, Max Holmes, Connor Stone.
 
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Davo-27 said:
Butters was a star this year, i dont understand thinking he would not be good for us and Duursma is comparable to our mids and a lot younger with a lot of potential, thankfully the club has changed direction with Day last year and hopefully another win this year at the draft, im just happy for small wins at this stage, enough small wins and we can build back to being a strong team again.
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I would still rather an elite talent (haven’t seen it enough at the Hawks yet although I thought he was dynamic late 2019 predominantly played as a midfielder) like Wingard than 2 good players like Burton and Duursma/Butters. Agree with you like most people we completely overpaid in the O’Meara trade but I think it was worth the risk. Luckily this year we have a top 5 pick which is where you grab the absolute cream of the crop! I do love your work on the talent identification just don’t necessarily agree with you on the direction the club took without having access to the pointy end of recent drafts.
 
jenniferHAWKinS said:
Geez I hope we get better players than Duursma and Butters in our rebuild! Rozee is an elite talent (should have gone higher) and so he should be as a top 5 pick. We have traded out picks in the 11-20 range which are more speculative in order to bring in elite talent like Mitchell, Wingard and O’Meara. Did we overpay for Wingard and O’Meara, yes we did but we never traded out top end picks which is where you get the absolute top end talent you are desperately trying to bring into your club.
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Where was Will Day picked?
 
Davo-27 said:
i was pleading for us to goto the draft that year, i think i posted dozens of posts pleading for us to ignore the Wingard trade and hit the draft, fell on deaf ears, every blow hard on the Hawks board wanted Wingard and told me the draft is a lottery, same old BS from the same blowhards unfortunately, now those same blowhards want to hit the draft OR have disappeared as soon as we started losing and dropped to the bottom of the ladder(NTTAWWT disappeared when things get tough).
Click to expand...

Most of us on here were saying similar but were getting shot down by Hawks supporters for the JOM & Wingard trades - They were just crazy what the Hawks gave up for these 2 players. Personally i dont think it would be such a bad idea to trade them out this year or next whilst still have some currency.


andleanback said:
The draft is a lottery arguement is one of the dumbest. Where did Hodge come from, or Roughead, or Lewis, or Cyril and oh a guy named Buddy Franklin. 1st round picks are the only way to build a team capable of competing for a premiership.
Click to expand...

You might want to have a look at the Richmond team and have a look where players like
Grimes,Astbury,Castagna,Baker,Pickett,Bolton,Lambert,Broad,Soldo,Nankervis,McIntosh,Short,Aarts,Balta and a few more were picked
 

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THE_GUN said:
You might want to have a look at the Richmond team and have a look where players like
Grimes,Astbury,Castagna,Baker,Pickett,Bolton,Lambert,Broad,Soldo,Nankervis,McIntosh,Short,Aarts,Balta and a few more were picked
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And Cotchin and Martin and Riewoldt and Vlastuin and Rioli and Prestia and Lynch and Caddy and Rance and Ellis.
 
THE_GUN said:
Most of us on here were saying similar but were getting shot down by Hawks supporters for the JOM & Wingard trades - They were just crazy what the Hawks gave up for these 2 players. Personally i dont think it would be such a bad idea to trade them out this year or next whilst still have some currency.




You might want to have a look at the Richmond team and have a look where players like
Grimes,Astbury,Castagna,Baker,Pickett,Bolton,Lambert,Broad,Soldo,Nankervis,McIntosh,Short,Aarts,Balta and a few more were picked
Click to expand...
Um whose won 3 norm smiths and carried Richmond when theyve been on the canvas? It hasn’t been castanga or broad but I agree Richmond have excelled in picking the right players late.
 
andleanback said:
Um whose won 3 norm smiths and carried Richmond when theyve been on the canvas? It hasn’t been castanga or broad but I agree Richmond have excelled in picking the right players late.
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Who was playing on Dangerfield ?
Who stopped the best FF of 2020 ?

McIntosh kicking a goal on the run from 50+ out

Whilst Dusty is the star people dont see what guys like Castagna are doing putting pressure on the likes of taylor to fumble balls that Dusty takes advantage and finishes off.
 
THE_GUN said:
Who was playing on Dangerfield ?
Who stopped the best FF of 2020 ?

McIntosh kicking a goal on the run from 50+ out

Whilst Dusty is the star people dont see what guys like Castagna are doing putting pressure on the likes of taylor to fumble balls that Dusty takes advantage and finishes off.
Click to expand...
Yeah and that happens in every team, but only dusty can kick those goals/ seize those moments.
 
andleanback said:
Yeah and that happens in every team, but only dusty can kick those goals/ seize those moments.
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Dusty might have been the difference in 2020 but 2017 & 2019 dont think he was the reason we won

Nat Fyfe /Dangerfield / Buddy Franklin and many more couldnt win a flag on their own and its a team sport , I named 15/16 players that were taken late-rookie in the draft in the team thats won the flag who all contributed and our B & F winner in a premiership year came from the PSD

2020 Jack Dyer Medal Top 10 only 3 out of 10 are 1st round picks

  1. Jayden Short 53 votes - PSD
  2. Dustin Martin 50
  3. Nick Vlastuin 49
  4. Shai Bolton 44 - Pick 29
  5. Kamdyn McIntosh 43 - Pick 43
  6. Liam Baker 42 - Rookie
  7. Dylan Grimes 41 -PSD
  8. Noah Balta 40 - Pick 25
  9. Kane Lambert 39 - PSD
  10. Trent Cotchin 37
 
THE_GUN said:
Dusty might have been the difference in 2020 but 2017 & 2019 dont think he was the reason we won

Nat Fyfe /Dangerfield / Buddy Franklin and many more couldnt win a flag on their own and its a team sport , I named 15/16 players that were taken late-rookie in the draft in the team thats won the flag who all contributed and our B & F winner in a premiership year came from the PSD

2020 Jack Dyer Medal Top 10 only 3 out of 10 are 1st round picks

  1. Jayden Short 53 votes - PSD
  2. Dustin Martin 50
  3. Nick Vlastuin 49
  4. Shai Bolton 44 - Pick 29
  5. Kamdyn McIntosh 43 - Pick 43
  6. Liam Baker 42 - Rookie
  7. Dylan Grimes 41 -PSD
  8. Noah Balta 40 - Pick 25
  9. Kane Lambert 39 - PSD
  10. Trent Cotchin 37
Click to expand...
The cream always rises to the top, he might’ve not been the difference on gf last year - even though he has best on. But he sure was one of the reasons you got there, he dominated against lions in the qf and then who were the 3 that were instrumental in the come back over the cats in the prelim - Lynch, dusty and Prestia, all top 11 picks. It’s no coincidence that the 2 finals Richmond have lost in the past 4 years Dusty has had absolute stinkers in those games. I’m yet to see a game (a final) where dusty doesn’t show up and Richmond get the job done without him. If dusty was out of the whole season next year where do you think Richmond would finish on the ladder/ final series.
 
andleanback said:
The cream always rises to the top, he might’ve not been the difference on gf last year - even though he has best on. But he sure was one of the reasons you got there, he dominated against lions in the qf and then who were the 3 that were instrumental in the come back over the cats in the prelim - Lynch, dusty and Prestia, all top 11 picks. It’s no coincidence that the 2 finals Richmond have lost in the past 4 years Dusty has had absolute stinkers in those games. I’m yet to see a game (a final) where dusty doesn’t show up and Richmond get the job done without him. If dusty was out of the whole season next year where do you think Richmond would finish on the ladder/ final series.
Click to expand...
People say this but there have been games where we didnt have Jack,Cotch,Martin,Rance and went to play in SA and beat port sure it was not a final but players stand up and others fill in. But due to dusties durability we have not seen this alot.

2018 Dusty was injured and very little imput but Richmond were the best team all year except for 1 freak quarter from mason Cox where pies jumped us by 5 goals and held the lead. Its common opinion if we had of not had that 1 quarter Richmond would have won the flag in 18

But No Dusty No Richmond is not accurate
 

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THE_GUN said:
People say this but there have been games where we didnt have Jack,Cotch,Martin,Rance and went to play in SA and beat port sure it was not a final but players stand up and others fill in. But due to dusties durability we have not seen this alot.

2018 Dusty was injured and very little imput but Richmond were the best team all year except for 1 freak quarter from mason Cox where pies jumped us by 5 goals and held the lead. Its common opinion if we had of not had that 1 quarter Richmond would have won the flag in 18

But No Dusty No Richmond is not accurate
Click to expand...
My belief with Richmond is that their success is built off their system they play with and not the players on the field. Yeah having Dusty is a massive part of their success but their system is the key. Think when Rance departed the belief was the backline would struggle. But because of the system they play they just plug in another player to play that role. I believe that take some of their players out and put them in another team without the system in place they wouldn’t be half the player that they are when they play for Richmond.
 
Dons4Life said:
My belief with Richmond is that their success is built off their system they play with and not the players on the field. Yeah having Dusty is a massive part of their success but their system is the key. Think when Rance departed the belief was the backline would struggle. But because of the system they play they just plug in another player to play that role. I believe that take some of their players out and put them in another team without the system in place they wouldn’t be half the player that they are when they play for Richmond.
Click to expand...
Without being that knowledgeable about basketball, they remind me of the Chicago bulls. Best system and best player is what made them them 6 times champions.

Would the Tigres have beaten the cats without Dusty? Would they have even made the grand final without him? Its arguable. Would they have been able to dig themselves out of their mid-season funk without a system to fall back on? Also arguable. You need both.
 
Dons4Life said:
My belief with Richmond is that their success is built off their system they play with and not the players on the field. Yeah having Dusty is a massive part of their success but their system is the key. Think when Rance departed the belief was the backline would struggle. But because of the system they play they just plug in another player to play that role. I believe that take some of their players out and put them in another team without the system in place they wouldn’t be half the player that they are when they play for Richmond.
Click to expand...
That seems true, they can take a 6/10 player and with their system make him seem like an 8/10 player, i think a lot of it is their fitness program, their team "get it going forward at all costs" type of play and also i think their crowds really give them energy to play that style too, the support they have gotten from crowds since 2017 would inspire any playing group to be better imo.

but i do think they have drafted a tonne of great small forwards and this also contributes to their success in recent times imo.
 
Sleezy said:
Without being that knowledgeable about basketball, they remind me of the Chicago bulls. Best system and best player is what made them them 6 times champions.

Would the Tigres have beaten the cats without Dusty? Would they have even made the grand final without him? Its arguable. Would they have been able to dig themselves out of their mid-season funk without a system to fall back on? Also arguable. You need both.
Click to expand...

even with the best systems you need game changers, when we were on top of the pile, we had Hodge, Burgoyne and Cyril (Lake in his short 3 yr stint) who would step up and win a high pressure game for us. i call them big game players, it seems Martin and to a lesser extent Cotchin are that for Richmond? im unsure, im sure Richmond supporters could tell me more about their big game players.
 
jenniferHAWKinS said:
Geez I hope we get better players than Duursma and Butters in our rebuild! Rozee is an elite talent (should have gone higher) and so he should be as a top 5 pick. We have traded out picks in the 11-20 range which are more speculative in order to bring in elite talent like Mitchell, Wingard and O’Meara. Did we overpay for Wingard and O’Meara, yes we did but we never traded out top end picks which is where you get the absolute top end talent you are desperately trying to bring into your club.
Click to expand...

Zac Butters made the AA40 squad in his second year lol
 
jenniferHAWKinS said:
I would still rather an elite talent (haven’t seen it enough at the Hawks yet although I thought he was dynamic late 2019 predominantly played as a midfielder) like Wingard than 2 good players like Burton and Duursma/Butters. Agree with you like most people we completely overpaid in the O’Meara trade but I think it was worth the risk. Luckily this year we have a top 5 pick which is where you grab the absolute cream of the crop! I do love your work on the talent identification just don’t necessarily agree with you on the direction the club took without having access to the pointy end of recent drafts.
Click to expand...
The biggest problem for Hawthorn was not the trades at the time but the fact neither O’Meara nor Wingard have justified the faith. If O’Meara became the player Hawthorn (and a lot of others) thought he could be (ie. a top 20 player in the comp), that trade looks good. As the Tom Mitchell one did when he won the Brownlow. O’Meara was only 22 at the time of the trade. Unfortunately, he has not reached those heights and is a just a soldier, so the trade in hindsight has not been a success. There was of course no guarantee those draft picks would have been either.

Same goes for Wingard. If he came over and played at his All Australian level, it’s a good a trade. He was only 25 when traded. Unfortunately save for a strong start to 2020, he has not. So again in hindsight the trade isn’t looking good.

We paid superstar prices expecting superstars, but didn’t get them.

Hawthorn’s plan involved landing free agents like Lynch and Coniglio. But that failed. The strategy itself could have worked, but it didn’t, so they start a new strategy. It doesn’t mean the only strategy that works is solely smashing the draft with early picks because many clubs have done that for years with no success. Carlton and Melbourne have had I think 7 number one draft picks between them in the past 15 years and both remain s**t.

I think now because Hawthorns strategy did not work they need a couple years of drafting in early picks (which we didn’t have in those prior years). But there is no guarantee those picks become stars and a period in the lower rungs of the ladder can damage club culture so it is a difficult challenge
 
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Billyc said:
The biggest problem for Hawthorn was not the trades at the time but the fact neither O’Meara nor Wingard have justified the faith. If O’Meara became the player Hawthorn (and a lot of others) thought he could be (ie. a top 20 player in the comp), that trade looks good. As the Tom Mitchell one did when he won the Brownlow. O’Meara was only 22 at the time of the trade. Unfortunately, he has not reached those heights and is a just a soldier, so the trade in hindsight has not been a success. There was of course no guarantee those draft picks would have been either.

Same goes for Wingard. If he came over and played at his All Australian level, it’s a good a trade. He was only 25 when traded. Unfortunately save for a strong start to 2020, he has not. So again in hindsight the trade isn’t looking good.

We paid superstar prices expecting superstars, but didn’t get them.
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That reads like an effort to shift the focus from the decision makers to the players when it looks to me like the decision makers got it wrong. It isn't that those players haven't justified the faith. It is the decision to put faith in underperforming and injured former stars.
 
theGav56 said:
That reads like an effort to shift the focus from the decision makers to the players when it looks to me like the decision makers got it wrong. It isn't that those players haven't justified the faith. It is the decision to put faith in underperforming and injured former stars.
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With Wingard it is both. We overpaid based on his last couple seasons at Port. But if he played at those early high levels, he’d have been absolutely worth that. That he hasn’t is on both player and the decision makers who believed he would. He is still capable of that elite footy though and showed it in first month of 2020 before struggling in the hubs.

With O’Meara I don’t think he’s done anything wrong. I think the decision makers got that one wrong. They thought he’d return from that serious injury and live up to the potential he had in his early years. They got that wrong. He is what he is - a solid player and great character - but he’s not worth the price we paid. That one was an error but then a 23 year old Tom Mitchell for pick 14 was a good trade

These things are far from black and white and the discussion does nobody any benefit in making it black and white. We will never know who Hawthorn would have drafted.

What has hurt Hawthorn most has been missing all the free agents they targeted over a 4 year period. That is where the strategy has really failed and now we are in a bad spot and need to replenish at the younger end of the list.
 
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Billyc said:
With Wingard it is both. We overpaid based on his last couple seasons at Port. But if he played at those early high levels, he’d have been absolutely worth that. That he hasn’t is on both player and the decision makers who believed he would. He is still capable of that elite footy though and showed it in first month of 2020 before struggling in the hubs.

With O’Meara I don’t think he’s done anything wrong. I think the decision makers got that one wrong. They thought he’d return from that serious injury and live up to the potential he had in his early years. They got that wrong. He is what he is - a solid player and great character - but he’s not worth the price we paid. That one was an error but then a 23 year old Tom Mitchell for pick 14 was a good trade

These things are far from black and white and the discussion does nobody any benefit in making it black and white. We will never know who Hawthorn would have drafted.

What has hurt Hawthorn most has been missing all the free agents they targeted over a 4 year period. That is where the strategy has really failed and now we are in a bad spot and need to replenish at the younger end of the list.
Click to expand...

missing on FA or Trade targets was always going to happen once Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Gibson, Cyril ect retired or got too old to really compete, FA are sold on a club by who they will play with, would you rather play with Dusty, Cotchin, Rance, Riewoldt or a bunch of nobodies relatively at Hawthorn? which was the reasoning behind Lynch/Shiel/Williams decisions + money, they were smart enough to see which team had a future and which was on the decline within the next handful of seasons.

as for the O'Meara and Wingard Trades, both players had massive red flags, O'Meara being out with 2 ACL's and struggling to get back on the park and fearing for his career and Wingard being at odds with Port over attitude issues and a lack of workrate and VERY patchy form, which we have seen for ourselves

the players/picks we gave up for JOM, ready yourself
2016
Pick 10 - Jack Bowes - GCS
Pick 25 - Ben Long - StK
Pick 39 - Josh Battle - StK
2017
Pick 7 - Hunter Clark - StK
Pick 26 - Liam Ryan - WCE

i would say those 5 players are at least as good if not better individually than JOM

Wingard's trade wasnt as big a nightmare
2018
Ryan Burton
Pick 18 - Xavier Duursma - Port
Pick 40 - Tom Joyce - Bris
2019
Pick 59 - Jaxon Prior - Bris

not only were they both red flags, they cost us about half a dozen quality players for 2, imo not the smartest of trades at the time or now.
 
Davo-27 said:
missing on FA or Trade targets was always going to happen once Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Gibson, Cyril ect retired or got too old to really compete, FA are sold on a club by who they will play with, would you rather play with Dusty, Cotchin, Rance, Riewoldt or a bunch of nobodies relatively at Hawthorn? which was the reasoning behind Lynch/Shiel/Williams decisions + money, they were smart enough to see which team had a future and which was on the decline within the next handful of seasons.

as for the O'Meara and Wingard Trades, both players had massive red flags, O'Meara being out with 2 ACL's and struggling to get back on the park and fearing for his career and Wingard being at odds with Port over attitude issues and a lack of workrate and VERY patchy form, which we have seen for ourselves

the players/picks we gave up for JOM, ready yourself
2016
Pick 10 - Jack Bowes - GCS
Pick 25 - Ben Long - StK
Pick 39 - Josh Battle - StK
2017
Pick 7 - Hunter Clark - StK
Pick 26 - Liam Ryan - WCE

i would say those 5 players are at least as good if not better individually than JOM

Wingard's trade wasnt as big a nightmare
2018
Ryan Burton
Pick 18 - Xavier Duursma - Port
Pick 40 - Tom Joyce - Bris
2019
Pick 59 - Jaxon Prior - Bris

not only were they both red flags, they cost us about half a dozen quality players for 2, imo not the smartest of trades at the time or now.
Click to expand...
The cost of O'Meara is breathtaking. It's basically half a rebuild.
 
Heaps of fun said:
The cost of O'Meara is breathtaking. It's basically half a rebuild.
Click to expand...
A large lost opportunity. Hawthorn has a principle - that I respect but don’t entirely agree with - that once a player commits, the club commits and pays what they have to to get the deal over the line. Similarly when a player wants out like Brad Hill, the club lets them go, even for unders if need be.

The principle builds good faith with players, with rival clubs and with player managers but not all parties play the same way and with Gold Coast, Cochrane had a point to prove with O’Meara and Hawthorn paid massive overs to appease him. It was overs then and massive overs now given O’Meara hasn’t recovered from injury as hoped.

While I think Hawthorns approach is much better than say the polar opposite Essendon approach of being the club that doesn’t get deals done year after year, there needs to be a line where clubs walk away from deals that are not fair.
 
Billyc said:
A large lost opportunity. Hawthorn has a principle - that I respect but don’t entirely agree with - that once a player commits, the club commits and pays what they have to to get the deal over the line. Similarly when a player wants out like Brad Hill, the club lets them go, even for unders if need be.

The principle builds good faith with players, with rival clubs and with player managers but not all parties play the same way and with Gold Coast, Cochrane had a point to prove with O’Meara and Hawthorn paid massive overs to appease him. It was overs then and massive overs now given O’Meara hasn’t recovered from injury as hoped.

While I think Hawthorns approach is much better than say the polar opposite Essendon approach of being the club that doesn’t get deals done year after year, there needs to be a line where clubs walk away from deals that are not fair.
Click to expand...
How does essendon not get deals done?
Landed Smith, stringer and saad in one trade period
Then shiel the following year
Then Caldwell Wright and hind this year. Not dodoros fault dogs were asking for ridiculous overs for dunkley
 
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