2021 and beyond

[daniel23]

If Lewis or jeka come on that will be huge for the clubs future . Lewis's 2019 form stats wise was better then Max king

12

Max King

Age

23

Ht

202cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.3

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

2.6

2star

M

2.7

3star

T

0.7

3star

G

1.4

5star

D

7.3

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

2.6

2star

M

2.7

3star

T

0.7

1star

G

1.4

5star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

2.8

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

0.6

3star

G

1.4

5star

's this year in every category, fingers crossed for an injury free pre season .

 

[Pessimistic]

2004-2008 hawks developed 15 (6 multi premiership players) best 22 players from 5 drafts 9 top 20 picks, 26 selections going at 57% no trade in players
2009-2013 developed 9 best 22 players (4 multi premiership players) from 5 drafts 1 top 20 picks, 20 selections going at 41% traded in 9 best 22 players
2014-2018 developed 5 (4-5 still in the air) best 22 players from 5 drafts 1 top 20 pick, 17 selections going at 30-60% traded in 9 best 22 players

2019 on we need to nail 7-9 trade ins (frost Phillips so far) but also find 9 draftees which will mean taking 20 selections at least including 3 rookie finds

with higher prices asked for trade ins, and more likely to have lower finishes the pendulum will swing back towards draftees. With 2 top 10 and 2 academy selections so far, that task may be on track

as the above poster mentioned. Lewis getting close to A grade, Jeka or even Kosi making it is a huge step in the right direction. The vibe in the draft selections seems to be marking power and speed, agility, stamina.

Howe Hardwick Morrison Lewis Hanrahan, Cousins, Nash, Worpel, Moore, Kosi represents 62% of 16 selections. we need 8 of the 10 to 'make it' jury is still out on the 17-18-19 rookies

With the AFL apparently still keen to fiddle with the rules, throw in a little clarko innovation ahead of the game and, who knows?

 

[Larry G!]

Pessimistic,

That is an excellent post - thank you. i enjoyed your fresh perspective on the challenge of the list build because you have put some dimensions around what needs to be fixed and the challenge of developing the existing players into a cohesive whole. This made me think in a structural way - if you would mind I would like to share my perspective around the layers of success that we must master. To elaborate, it seems to me we have to balance:

1. List build using draft, teach and trades
2. Talent development - innate (strength, flexibility, endurance, agility, durability) learnt (kicking, marking, etc) Game plan (seeing spaces on the field, going this way and that way etc)
3. Game plan execution on the day - coaching, team, individual
4. Individual alignment - motivation, belonging, clarity on their role etc

Choices across the layers need to be unified and not made separately, consistently applied and then synchronized. In effect we are building a football system.

Our system is in competition with other clubs but more profoundly we have to operate in a hostile environment owned by the governing body

• Our system is also is under attack from the AFL's socialist mantra and its instincts to share the premierships
• AFL taxing successful clubs to support the expansion of the game nationally

Not to mention injuries!

 

[Pessimistic]

On the flip side, where are the Gunstons and Bruests?

Bruest, elevated rookie 2 years on list, from 2011 to 2019 never dropped below 30 goals and averaged more
Gunston, traded for#4 in 2011 and pick swaps. was seen as more reliable in the f50 than Buddy in no time. Dropped below 30 goals twice in the career

we wouldn't have drafted better players in the main draft since 2004 (maybe Cyril perhaps ) although they were specialists and couldn't transition to permanent midfield roles.

In the last two drafts there is a definite vibe of speed/endurance and specialist forwards, there being quite a bit of intercept markers and inside mids already on the list

 

[Hawk Hawkins]

It’s ugly football that I find unwatchable. I’m probably in minority but I can’t watch whole game if hawks aren’t playing unless I have a multi keeping me interested.

I hope you are!

 

[rei154]

2004-2008 hawks developed 15 (6 multi premiership players) best 22 players from 5 drafts 9 top 20 picks, 26 selections going at 57% no trade in players
2009-2013 developed 9 best 22 players (4 multi premiership players) from 5 drafts 1 top 20 picks, 20 selections going at 41% traded in 9 best 22 players
2014-2018 developed 5 (4-5 still in the air) best 22 players from 5 drafts 1 top 20 pick, 17 selections going at 30-60% traded in 9 best 22 players

2019 on we need to nail 7-9 trade ins (frost Phillips so far) but also find 9 draftees which will mean taking 20 selections at least including 3 rookie finds

with higher prices asked for trade ins, and more likely to have lower finishes the pendulum will swing back towards draftees. With 2 top 10 and 2 academy selections so far, that task may be on track

as the above poster mentioned. Lewis getting close to A grade, Jeka or even Kosi making it is a huge step in the right direction. The vibe in the draft selections seems to be marking power and speed, agility, stamina.

Howe Hardwick Morrison Lewis Hanrahan, Cousins, Nash, Worpel, Moore, Kosi represents 62% of 16 selections. we need 8 of the 10 to 'make it' jury is still out on the 17-18-19 rookies

With the AFL apparently still keen to fiddle with the rules, throw in a little clarko innovation ahead of the game and, who knows?

Appreciate the analysis here- I'm kind of wondering where people see Howe at? He has been around for an age and has confused the hell out of me- I have no clue where his best position is and I have no clue if his tagging is enough to warrant a spot.
Of the others in that section I think Hardwick, Morrison, Lewis, Cousins, Worpel will all make it pretty comfortably, and I think Moore is the most likely out of the others to make it.
Of our draftees over the last few years I think Finn, Day, Morris, Downie and DGB will all become starting 18 players eventually and I have high hopes for Brockman and Jeka joining them.
I think 2021 will be our last 'core development year' and from 2022 onwards we will have the troops to challenge for a solid patch.

 

[eldorado]

Appreciate the analysis here- I'm kind of wondering where people see Howe at? He has been around for an age and has confused the hell out of me- I have no clue where his best position is and I have no clue if his tagging is enough to warrant a spot.

Same.

I think he needs to show more. He doesn't impose himself, or stand out by his actions. I remember ONE occasion, where he sold a beautiful dummy in a tight space to buy himself a few extra tenths of a second, and I remember being struck by the thought "Hey, howe did something creative and clever! Who knew?"

He's just 'there', being a link. His best efforts are, as you say, being a blocking tagger, but is it enough?

 

[eldorado]

Appreciate the analysis here- I'm kind of wondering where people see Howe at? He has been around for an age and has confused the hell out of me- I have no clue where his best position is and I have no clue if his tagging is enough to warrant a spot.

Same.

I think he needs to show more. He doesn't impose himself, or stand out by his actions. I remember ONE occasion, where he sold a beautiful dummy in a tight space to buy himself a few extra tenths of a second, and I remember being struck by the thought "Hey, howe did something creative and clever! Who knew?"

He's just 'there', being a link. His best efforts are, as you say, in the role of a blocking tagger, but is it enough?

 

[MrPremiership]

SYL's comparisons to 2004-2008 era are interesting.

Just thinking about that era to now, do we think the competition is more even now, or alternatively the good teams aren't as good? Might make the climb up a bit easier

 

[Nathan Detroit]

SYL's comparisons to 2004-2008 era are interesting.

Just thinking about that era to now, do we think the competition is more even now, or alternatively the good teams aren't as good? Might make the climb up a bit easier

I'm leaning towards the latter. With 22 players per side it would be a rarity that a single player could make the difference in a Premiership unless the other 21 were incredibly even, yet it would seem to be the case currently. Ever since the Bulldogs were allowed to introduce the "new" playing style I haven't felt there really was a "standout" team or teams. I must also admit that our picking crew can't agree on this LOL!

 

[Rushed_Behind]

I hope you are!

So you’re happy with the way the game is played?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

If Lewis or jeka come on that will be huge for the clubs future . Lewis's 2019 form stats wise was better then Max king's this year in every category, fingers crossed for an injury free pre season .

Yes, these two are key, as is Kosi.

If a miraculous chain of events sees all 3 rise in 2021 along with DGB our list will be much stronger for it.

Here’s hoping.

 

[Sturty]

Yes, these two are key, as is Kosi.

If a miraculous chain of events sees all 3 rise in 2021 along with DGB our list will be much stronger for it.

Here’s hoping.

This is the Way.

 

[Yardie]

Same.

I think he needs to show more. He doesn't impose himself, or stand out by his actions. I remember ONE occasion, where he sold a beautiful dummy in a tight space to buy himself a few extra tenths of a second, and I remember being struck by the thought "Hey, howe did something creative and clever! Who knew?"

He's just 'there', being a link. His best efforts are, as you say, in the role of a blocking tagger, but is it enough?

I wonder if Sam Mitchell coming on board has sent him backwards? In 2018 he was given a role to tag and create space for Tom Mitchell. Since Sam came on board we have gone completely backwards for clearances (although Burns is also responsible here). I was concerned that by having two coaches speak to the midfield we create confusion for the players.

With Bolton taking over we have one voice and I hope that we start looking at the composition of the players, especially for centre clearances, that complement each other rather than trying to ram the best players in to get an outcome that clearly doesn't work.

 

[rei154]

Same.

I think he needs to show more. He doesn't impose himself, or stand out by his actions. I remember ONE occasion, where he sold a beautiful dummy in a tight space to buy himself a few extra tenths of a second, and I remember being struck by the thought "Hey, howe did something creative and clever! Who knew?"

He's just 'there', being a link. His best efforts are, as you say, in the role of a blocking tagger, but is it enough?

Yeah I think he has a lot of these moments tbh, but I don't think he has the speed to be a midfielder FT.

I'm happy he's on our list don't get me wrong, but I think he needs to show us something more in 2021 if he wants to be around in 2022. I always viewed him as the Shiels replacer long term, but now I'm nowhere near as sure.

 

[Davo-27]

I wonder if Sam Mitchell coming on board has sent him backwards? In 2018 he was given a role to tag and create space for Tom Mitchell. Since Sam came on board we have gone completely backwards for clearances (although Burns is also responsible here). I was concerned that by having two coaches speak to the midfield we create confusion for the players.

With Bolton taking over we have one voice and I hope that we start looking at the composition of the players, especially for centre clearances, that complement each other rather than trying to ram the best players in to get an outcome that clearly doesn't work.

if you look at our midfield over the last 4 seasons, it seemed like Mitchell dominated the inside midfield work in 2017 and 2018 averaging over 35 poss each game and using his workrate to keep us competitive without Sam Mitchell and Lewis driving our midfield anymore, then he breaks a leg pre-season and 2019 becomes the Worpel + O'Meara show where they filled the void and did quite well sharing the responsibility, 2020 was Mitchell coming back and there seemed to be a lack of gelling and also maybe there was a coaching component to the lack of cohesion, i also think there needs to be more attacking and spreading from the midfield, more goals or hitting people on a lead i50 would be great, moving the ball quickly as in play on at all cost until they get that natural play on whenever they can, stagnant footy really did weigh us down a lot in 2020.

as for Howe, he is one of the slowest footy players in the League, not just in pace, but in movement and even his thinking seems to be slow under pressure, he is tough and a big body, but opponents run around him like he is a witches hat at AFL level.

 

[TylerDurden]

Howe is on borrowed time for me. Depth player.

 

[Davo-27]

Positives moving forward

1) Picking up Macrae from Richmond, good coach, was a good player, bringing in some much needed fresh Ideas
2) Bringing in Hartigan to play as a 3 year FB to play on the big forwards to allow DGB and Kosi a chance to make it without the burden of too much responsibility too early
3) Tom Phillips

21

Tom Phillips

Age

28

Ht

187cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.4

5star

K

13.4

5star

HB

9.0

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.5

4star

CL

1.6

4star

D

15.1

4star

K

8.5

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.5

3star

T

2.3

3star

CL

0.5

3star

D

16.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

7.0

5star

M

5.2

5star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.8

3star

as a good balanced wing, good production, good endurance, can go forward and kick a goal and can also tackle unlike some other wings
4) DGB and Downie to debut in 2020 100% and could be similar to Day and Greaves this year as breakout talents
5) Day, Scrimshaw and Greaves to cement a spot in the 22

 

[Yardie]

if you look at our midfield over the last 4 seasons, it seemed like Mitchell dominated the inside midfield work in 2017 and 2018 averaging over 35 poss each game and using his workrate to keep us competitive without Sam Mitchell and Lewis driving our midfield anymore, then he breaks a leg pre-season and 2019 becomes the Worpel + O'Meara show where they filled the void and did quite well sharing the responsibility, 2020 was Mitchell coming back and there seemed to be a lack of gelling and also maybe there was a coaching component to the lack of cohesion, i also think there needs to be more attacking and spreading from the midfield, more goals or hitting people on a lead i50 would be great, moving the ball quickly as in play on at all cost until they get that natural play on whenever they can, stagnant footy really did weigh us down a lot in 2020.

as for Howe, he is one of the slowest footy players in the League, not just in pace, but in movement and even his thinking seems to be slow under pressure, he is tough and a big body, but opponents run around him like he is a witches hat at AFL level.

Do you think that Worpel/O'Meara/Mitchell can work in the centre clearances? Or would we be better rotating two of them with someone else. By that I mean Worpel/Mitchell + one, O'Meara/Mitchell + one or O'Meara/Worpel + one.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Howe is on borrowed time for me. Depth player.

He’s the type that is good to have up your sleeve for depth, but you ideally don’t have a spot for him when you’re winning games.

 

[TylerDurden]

Do you think that Worpel/O'Meara/Mitchell can work in the centre clearances? Or would we be better rotating two of them with someone else. By that I mean Worpel/Mitchell + one, O'Meara/Mitchell + one or O'Meara/Worpel + one.

Add Cousins to the rotation. Maybe Shiels, Finn.

 

[Topiary]

Positives moving forward

1) Picking up Macrae from Richmond, good coach, was a good player, bringing in some much needed fresh Ideas
2) Bringing in Hartigan to play as a 3 year FB to play on the big forwards to allow DGB and Kosi a chance to make it without the burden of too much responsibility too early
3) Tom Phillips as a good balanced wing, good production, good endurance, can go forward and kick a goal and can also tackle unlike some other wings
4) DGB and Downie to debut in 2020 100% and could be similar to Day and Greaves this year as breakout talents
5) Day, Scrimshaw and Greaves to cement a spot in the 22

We need all of this to happen

 

[Brant]

Do you think that Worpel/O'Meara/Mitchell can work in the centre clearances? Or would we be better rotating two of them with someone else. By that I mean Worpel/Mitchell + one, O'Meara/Mitchell + one or O'Meara/Worpel + one.

You've not mentioned Wingard in the mix.

He's the obvious one (because he's proven to be bloody good at it & it's different to the others) & he's already on the list (& wasting away at FP).

Get O'Meara onto a HFF & Wingard into the middle for 60/40 (each).

Whilst we're at it, Worpel needs to learn to be productive (at least in a team sense) at FP.

That changes our productivity & balance using what's already on the list (so is immediately available to us).

 

[Yardie]

You've not mentioned Wingard in the mix.

He's the obvious one (because he's proven to be bloody good at it & it's different to the others) & he's already on the list (& wasting away at FP).

Get O'Meara onto a HFF & Wingard into the middle for 60/40 (each).

Whilst we're at it, Worpel needs to learn to be productive (at least in a team sense) at FP.

That changes our productivity & balance using what's already on the list (so is immediately available to us).

I'm not 100% convinced on the Worpel/Mitchell combination at the same time. So could see O'Meara/Wingard/Mitchell working better. Agree that Worpel needs to add another dimension.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Positives moving forward

1) Picking up Macrae from Richmond, good coach, was a good player, bringing in some much needed fresh Ideas
2) Bringing in Hartigan to play as a 3 year FB to play on the big forwards to allow DGB and Kosi a chance to make it without the burden of too much responsibility too early
3) Tom Phillips as a good balanced wing, good production, good endurance, can go forward and kick a goal and can also tackle unlike some other wings
4) DGB and Downie to debut in 2020 100% and could be similar to Day and Greaves this year as breakout talents
5) Day, Scrimshaw and Greaves to cement a spot in the 22

Nice summary of the potential upside of our list / playing style for 2021.

I actually feel a little bit more positive now after reading this!