Opinion Brian Cook - Carlton's rebuild still has a fair way to go

Which club is more likely to win another flag first?


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So you're saying we're sitting pretty ;)
IF
Cerra comes on
Curnow overcomes injuries
TDK can mature into a quality 1st ruck
You find a CHB
and Voss gets some kids to develop and a new game plan is drilled into the list, then yes Carlton may push into contending zone.

I don't see that happening in 2022 though, 2023 might be the jump IMHO.

Missing out on a couple of picks isn't going to haunt a club - I've shown you examples of clubs hitting successful periods despite a couple of poor drafts.
I'm not just talking a couple of missed picks, it is entire off seasons when Carlton were supposed to be building their list - 2016/17.

24 players brought into the club (half of a new list) and come 2023 you may have only a couple still on the list. That is horrible when supposedly starting a rebuild.

You are noting Hawthorn who in 3 year period 04-06 picked up Roughy, Lewis, Buddy, Young, X.Ellis, Birchall, Bailey, Gilham, Guerra, Renouf and Suckling who were premiership players for them also picked up Kennedy and McGlynn who had great careers at Sydney....that but they missed on Dowler and Thorpe.

Compare that to Carlton who in 15-17 added Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Plowman, Silvagni...Fisher, Dow and TDK who may be part of a successful Carlton side

Chalk and Cheese

Carlton's build compares to Gold Coast and Melbourne circa 2007-2010

Why did we bring in Hewett and Cerra (who pending injury will play 150 games) if we don't value proven AFL players?
??
I asked why you didn't bring these type of players in 3-4 years ago.

Your new list manager values them which is good. Both good pick-ups IMHO.


During SOS' tenure we targeted Shiel, Rockliff, Smith, Saad, Coniglio, Papley, but it's not easy convincing quality players to join your club when you're sitting in the bottom 4.
I guess it depends on how much you value them

The Lions grabbed Hodge, C.Cameron, Neale, McCarthy, Lyons and Adams when bottom 4 in 17-18.

Has certainly helped them, and their kids are flourishing not floundering.
We added Newnes and Newman who are some pretty standard foot soldiers and have added a bit to the squad, if not purely for boosting training standards and adding competition for younger players.

Williams and Saad are proven AFL players.
Newman was the only one of those added before 2019, and he hardly a strong leader as was still finding his way himself as had only played what 30 games before Carlton picked him up.

Guys like WHE leveraged a strong Pies team - someone compared his signing to Martin and I'd agree.
Yes, I said Martin is a poor man's WHE, you paid him heaps and he has never kicked more than 25 goals in a season, unlike WHE.

One of Walsh or Weitering will be our next captain. They are both outstanding leaders in addition to being quality players - not sure how there is any argument to that? Hawthorn didn't have a lot of leadership while they were building into a premiership juggernaut, but guys like Mitchell, Hodge and Roughead were self-starters who led them out of the abyss and they added some quality players to compliment them - Burgoyne, Gibson, Lake et al. This is the model we are looking at
??
When Hawthorn hit the draft in 04-06, they had strong senior leaders in Vandenberg, Crawford, J.Smith and amazing young leaders already on the list in Mitchell, Hodge, C.Brown and Sewell.

And also added senior heads like Guerra, Dew, Burgoyne and Gibson pretty quickly.

Then they drafted in guys like Roughy and Lewis - the equivalent of Weitering and Walsh - but they were surrounded and supported by established leadership.

Weitering/Walsh had Murphy (selfish) and Cripps as the senior leaders and after 6 off seasons hardly adding the quality senior talent that Hawthorn did.

Chalk and Cheese again

Hawthorn killed it despite using first round picks in Dowler and Thorp in 2005 and 2006. Richmond and Melbourne both went on to win flags despite blowing a number of first rounders.

There isn't a lot of basis for what you're putting forward.
As noted, Hawthorn had two misses but still very strong list additions in 04-06.
Carlton 15-17 is looking pretty ordinary in comparison.

Carlton fans keep trying to compare 15-18 to Hawks, but the reality is it is more like Dees 07-10....so yes it took the Dees more than a decade to build after they ballsed up 07-10, but they did finally get it right.

So yes, if following the Dees timeframe, Carlton might make finals in 2025 and win a flag in 2028.
 
IF
Cerra comes on
Curnow overcomes injuries
TDK can mature into a quality 1st ruck
You find a CHB
and Voss gets some kids to develop and a new game plan is drilled into the list, then yes Carlton may push into contending zone.

I don't see that happening in 2022 though, 2023 might be the jump IMHO.


I'm not just talking a couple of missed picks, it is entire off seasons when Carlton were supposed to be building their list - 2016/17.

24 players brought into the club (half of a new list) and come 2023 you may have only a couple still on the list. That is horrible when supposedly starting a rebuild.

You are noting Hawthorn who in 3 year period 04-06 picked up Roughy, Lewis, Buddy, Young, X.Ellis, Birchall, Bailey, Gilham, Guerra, Renouf and Suckling who were premiership players for them also picked up Kennedy and McGlynn who had great careers at Sydney....that but they missed on Dowler and Thorpe.

Compare that to Carlton who in 15-17 added Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Plowman, Silvagni...Fisher, Dow and TDK who may be part of a successful Carlton side

Chalk and Cheese

Carlton's build compares to Gold Coast and Melbourne circa 2007-2010


??
I asked why you didn't bring these type of players in 3-4 years ago.

Your new list manager values them which is good. Both good pick-ups IMHO.



I guess it depends on how much you value them

The Lions grabbed Hodge, C.Cameron, Neale, McCarthy, Lyons and Adams when bottom 4 in 17-18.

Has certainly helped them, and their kids are flourishing not floundering.

Newman was the only one of those added before 2019, and he hardly a strong leader as was still finding his way himself as had only played what 30 games before Carlton picked him up.


Yes, I said Martin is a poor man's WHE, you paid him heaps and he has never kicked more than 25 goals in a season, unlike WHE.


??
When Hawthorn hit the draft in 04-06, they had strong senior leaders in Vandenberg, Crawford, J.Smith and amazing young leaders already on the list in Mitchell, Hodge, C.Brown and Sewell.

And also added senior heads like Guerra, Dew, Burgoyne and Gibson pretty quickly.

Then they drafted in guys like Roughy and Lewis - the equivalent of Weitering and Walsh - but they were surrounded and supported by established leadership.

Weitering/Walsh had Murphy (selfish) and Cripps as the senior leaders and after 6 off seasons hardly adding the quality senior talent that Hawthorn did.

Chalk and Cheese again


As noted, Hawthorn had two misses but still very strong list additions in 04-06.
Carlton 15-17 is looking pretty ordinary in comparison.

Carlton fans keep trying to compare 15-18 to Hawks, but the reality is it is more like Dees 07-10....so yes it took the Dees more than a decade to build after they ballsed up 07-10, but they did finally get it right.

So yes, if following the Dees timeframe, Carlton might make finals in 2025 and win a flag in 2028.

So you have shifted from the Demons rebuilding in 2014-15 to now claiming we are following the Demons rebuild of 07-10. Cherry picking who supposedly are leaders within a club without any knowledge of the inner sanctum

Really going to enjoy looking back on all your so called analysis
 
So you have shifted from the Demons rebuilding in 2014-15 to now claiming we are following the Demons rebuild of 07-10. Cherry picking who supposedly are leaders within a club without any knowledge of the inner sanctum

Really going to enjoy looking back on all your so called analysis

Stuff like this really makes for a good laugh - you have to give him that.
 

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IF
Cerra comes on
Curnow overcomes injuries
TDK can mature into a quality 1st ruck
You find a CHB
and Voss gets some kids to develop and a new game plan is drilled into the list, then yes Carlton may push into contending zone.

I don't see that happening in 2022 though, 2023 might be the jump IMHO.

The post alluded to Melbourne adding elite young players. Walsh and McKay are already AA players, which was the distinction you were trying to push and have now deviated away from. Cerra may or may not become an AA standard player, but it's a moot point. At worst he is a quality player who will be good for our midfield over the course of a decade.

I'm not just talking a couple of missed picks, it is entire off seasons when Carlton were supposed to be building their list - 2016/17.

And again, I have provided a number of counter examples to this occurring. Pies, Dees, Tigers all missed a number of first round picks and ended up winning flags or making grand finals.

2016 we managed to bring in Fisher, 2017 we brought in TDK who are current and future B22 players, so it's an oversimplification stating we'd missed an entire off-seasons worth of players. Kennedy, who we brought in in 2017 is best 22. Cerra by proxy is part of that group.

24 players brought into the club (half of a new list) and come 2023 you may have only a couple still on the list. That is horrible when supposedly starting a rebuild.

Compared to what? What matters is the guys currently sitting on the list tasked with bringing the club forward.

You are noting Hawthorn who in 3 year period 04-06 picked up Roughy, Lewis, Buddy, Young, X.Ellis, Birchall, Bailey, Gilham, Guerra, Renouf and Suckling who were premiership players for them also picked up Kennedy and McGlynn who had great careers at Sydney....that but they missed on Dowler and Thorpe.

Compare that to Carlton who in 15-17 added Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Plowman, Silvagni...Fisher, Dow and TDK who may be part of a successful Carlton side

So premiership players are premiership players, not premiership players are not. Many of the players you've listed for Hawthorn aren't anything special, they just happened to be in the right place at the right time. (Young, Ellis, Bailey, Guerra, Renouf, Suckling).

Carlton's build compares to Gold Coast and Melbourne circa 2007-2010

Certainly can't recall any 186 point losses 4 years in. This is more optimistic than anything.

??
I asked why you didn't bring these type of players in 3-4 years ago.

Your new list manager values them which is good. Both good pick-ups IMHO.

Already answered, we tried, players didn't want to join a rebuilding side so we had to take what we could get (Newnes, Newman).

I guess it depends on how much you value them

The Lions grabbed Hodge, C.Cameron, Neale, McCarthy, Lyons and Adams when bottom 4 in 17-18.

Has certainly helped them, and their kids are flourishing not floundering.

Our 'kids' are winning AA jackets, not sure that's floundering. Some haven't kicked on as expected, but that's the case for any club.

Brisbane are in a unique position as one of only a couple of teams in QLD and one of those is a disasterpiece.

Hodge had a relationship with Fagan and went up to top up his Super, Neale didn't like the fishbowl of Perth and got a massive frontloaded offer. Lyons was happy to jump ship without needing to change state. Adams, McCarthy are role players traded for token picks.

Newman was the only one of those added before 2019, and he hardly a strong leader as was still finding his way himself as had only played what 30 games before Carlton picked him up.

He's a decent role player who came from a club with strong performance standards. Astute signing.

Yes, I said Martin is a poor man's WHE, you paid him heaps and he has never kicked more than 25 goals in a season, unlike WHE.

How did WHE go in a bottom side?

24 goals over TWO seasons is his current formline - they aren't that much different.

??
When Hawthorn hit the draft in 04-06, they had strong senior leaders in Vandenberg, Crawford, J.Smith and amazing young leaders already on the list in Mitchell, Hodge, C.Brown and Sewell.

And also added senior heads like Guerra, Dew, Burgoyne and Gibson pretty quickly.

Then they drafted in guys like Roughy and Lewis - the equivalent of Weitering and Walsh - but they were surrounded and supported by established leadership.

Weitering/Walsh had Murphy (selfish) and Cripps as the senior leaders and after 6 off seasons hardly adding the quality senior talent that Hawthorn did.

Chalk and Cheese again

As noted, Hawthorn had two misses but still very strong list additions in 04-06.
Carlton 15-17 is looking pretty ordinary in comparison.

Carlton fans keep trying to compare 15-18 to Hawks, but the reality is it is more like Dees 07-10....so yes it took the Dees more than a decade to build after they ballsed up 07-10, but they did finally get it right.

So yes, if following the Dees timeframe, Carlton might make finals in 2025 and win a flag in 2028.

A lot of revisionism in this post. Vandenberg, Crawford and Smith weren't considered 'amazing young leaders' and plenty questioned Crawfords captaincy at the time. They then replaced him with a reserves standard footballer.

The Hawks players were largely influenced by Clarkson, and I recall Mitchell commenting in his autobiography there was a distinct lack of leadership standards at the club. They looked up to guys like John Barker and Angelo Lekkas and the Hawks were perceived as being easybeats and lacked direction on the field.

How many star players did the Dees unearth during their rebuilding phase prior to bringing Petracca in in 2014? The Blues by comparison can already boast having 2 All-Australian players under the age of 24, plus Weitering who made the squad is arguably also an elite defender.

I don't think there's ever any point really comparing builds side by side due to the myriad of variations, introduction of free agency, increase in TPP and moving parts involved, but clearly most of your objections don't really exist or have some clear counterexample.
 
And again, I have provided a number of counter examples to this occurring. Pies, Dees, Tigers all missed a number of first round picks and ended up winning flags or making grand finals.
Yeah if you extend out your horizon to 15 years, then the Dees blowing first round picks in 2008 didn't matter.

This thread is about Carlton's 2022 prospects, the influence of recent history is important.

Poor drafting, and awful trading under SOS has meant that the list is shallow and has plenty of holes in it.

But yes, just like Richmond won some premierships 15 years after blowing drafts in the early to mid 2000s, and Melbourne simialrly won a GF some 14 years after blowing the late 2000s drafts.... Carlton too might win a GF by 2030.

2016 we managed to bring in Fisher, 2017 we brought in TDK who are current and future B22 players, so it's an oversimplification stating we'd missed an entire off-seasons worth of players. Kennedy, who we brought in in 2017 is best 22. Cerra by proxy is part of that group.
Just 3...and all still have questions on them.
That is a horrible return, especially the draft position you held...even with the Carlton goggles on, hard to try to paint that as successful off seasons.

And then because of the failings, you gave up pick 6 to bring in Cerra to fill a gap.

Compared to what? What matters is the guys currently sitting on the list tasked with bringing the club forward.
Yes, thankfully you have moved on from SOS and the dud footy department.

List moves recently look much better than back in 15-17.

New coaching group will take some time to assess the list and clean out battlers.

Many of the players you've listed for Hawthorn aren't anything special, they just happened to be in the right place at the right time. (Young, Ellis, Bailey, Guerra, Renouf, Suckling).
Young, Ellis, Guerra, Suckling all played 100+ games...and they were the "duds".

That isn't anything to be sneezed at....especially considering you are passing off Fisher, Kennedy and Newman as supposed wins.
Our 'kids' are winning AA jackets, not sure that's floundering. Some haven't kicked on as expected, but that's the case for any team.
Yes, you have 3 quality kids.

The majority of the rest are floundering, for a variety of reasons, and that is the point.

That is why your list is still shallow and has plenty of ?? marks heading into 2022.

I don't think there's ever any point really comparing builds side by side due to the myriad of variations, introduction of free agency, increase in TPP and moving parts involved, but clearly most of your objections don't really exist or have some clear counterexample.
Yep, Carlton fans love to try and compare their build to successful teams.

The output pegs them closer to failed Melbourne late 00s, GC any of their failed builds or Rich mid 00s when some six odd years after building the club was still very muchediocre and still battling.

But yes Melbourne finally started making smart moves around Roos takeover in 2014, they were still ordinary in 14-15 but then built to a flag 7 years later.

And Tigers after bringing Gale and Dimma in for 2010, were again still ordinary in 10-11, but then made progress and won a flag 7 years later in 2017.

Cook and Voss come to Carlton, my prediction is still be ordinary in 2022 but then may start to build if keep making smart moves....who knows, by 2029 might have won a flag.
 
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Yeah if you extend out your horizon to 15 years, then the Dees blowing first round picks in 2008 didn't matter.

This thread is about Carlton's 2022 prospects, the influence of recent history is important.

Poor drafting, and awful trading under SOS has meant that the list is shallow and has plenty of holes in it.

But yes, just like Richmond won some premierships 15 years after blowing drafts in the early to mid 2000s, and Melbourne simialrly won a GF some 14 years after blowing the late 2000s drafts.... Carlton too might win a GF by 2030.


Just 3...and all still have questions on them.
That is a horrible return, especially the draft position you held...even with the Carlton goggles on, hard to try to paint that as successful off seasons.

And then because of the failings, you gave up pick 6 to bring in Cerra to fill a gap.


Yes, thankfully you have moved on from SOS and the dud footy department.

List moves recently look much better than back in 15-17.

New coaching group will take some time to assess the list and clean out battlers.


Young, Ellis, Guerra, Suckling all played 100+ games...and they were the "duds".

That isn't anything to be sneezed at....especially considering you are passing off Fisher, Kennedy and Newman as supposed wins.

Yes, you have 3 quality kids.

The majority of the rest are floundering, for a variety of reasons, and that is the point.

That is why your list is still shallow and has plenty of ?? marks heading into 2022.


Yep, Carlton fans love to try and compare their build to successful teams.

The output pegs them closer to failed Melbourne late 00s, GC any of their failed builds or Rich mid 00s when some six odd years after building the club was still very muchediocre and still battling.

But yes Melbourne finally started making smart moves around Roos takeover in 2014, they were still ordinary in 14-15 but then built to a flag 7 years later.

And Tigers after bringing Gale and Dimma in for 2010, were again still ordinary in 10-11, but then made progress and won a flag 7 years later in 2017.

Cook and Voss come to Carlton, my prediction is still be ordinary in 2022 but then may start to build if keep making smart moves....who knows, by 2029 might have won a flag.

But Dees in 14-15 were ordinary.
Tigers 10-11 were

The next list management team and coaching group still plenty

Mate, just stop. You talk about this thread being about Carlton 2022, but happily start comparing to other sides and or the past. When you do, all your so called theories/comparisons are challenged with facts of clubs/players with similar circumstances, as there isn't a single formula blueprint to success. Then you go back to mindless cherry picking comparisons, rinse and repeat

I am really surprised why people like you post more in these type of threads than your own board, or even a thread like this https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2022-spoon-poll.1292914/ that is more relevant to your own club
 
Everyone acknowledges that Carlton have three top end youngsters. Defences have been made of other players, including they will improve with a new game plan. I wonder if a new game plan may actually not suit the top 3.

As far as I am concerned Walsh, Weitering MacKay are A graders. The latter may go backwards if he is not the constant target. I reckon Cerra might prove to be an A Grader.

The problem for Carlton is the steep cliff after its A graders. I reckon there are up to a further eight B graders. Thereafter the Club's list based on what I have seen will mean Voss will be fielding teams with a lot of liabilities that other teams will exploit. No doubt Vossy will employ systems to cover the weaknesses as best he can.

I think Carlton have made some terrific List Management Decisions in the off season. The best may be leaving around half the list uncontracted beyond 2022.

The only error was the Cripps contract and in particular its length. Lack of aerobic capacity means the game, including focussing on fast precise transitions and hard running defensive pressure systems, does not suit him.
 
There's no chance of either Carlton or Essendon having a "break out" in 2022.

The "break out" team will be either St Kilda or Fremantle, with Hawthorn as a smokey and in my opinion, the Hawks are worth a punt on making top 8 in 2022. The Hawks top 8 odds are far longer than they should be, due to people underrating them in favour of Carlton and Essendon.
 
I wonder who the candidates are for a 'break down' year in AFL - how much of a let down is it for the finalists of a previous year to learn that despite best efforts they just aren't good enough to win finals or a flag...the perennial good enough to play finals but really not much better than most Clubs on any day type teams - the over performing in H&A because of home ground advantages or draw but - never gonna really win anything type Clubs.
 
Essendon are far more likely to have a break out season in 2022 than Carlton. I don't rate Voss nor do I rate their list, which lacks depth outside the top tier of Walsh, McKay, Cripps, Curnow and Weitering.

It's an all too familiar tale for Carlton, as their list is similar to their 2008-2013 list, which lacked depth outside the top tier of Judd, Fevola, Betts, Murphy, Kreuzer and Gibbs.
 
Essendon are far more likely to have a break out season in 2022 than Carlton. I don't rate Voss nor do I rate their list, which lacks depth outside the top tier of Walsh, McKay, Cripps, Curnow and Weitering.

It's an all too familiar tale for Carlton, as their list is similar to their 2008-2013 list, which lacked depth outside the top tier of Judd, Fevola, Betts, Murphy, Kreuzer and Gibbs.
You've forgotten how easily Carlton put Essendon away last season.
 
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Imagine if we had Voss coaching instead?! Would have belted the Bombers by 10 goals.

Teague did his best to lose it in the opening half.
Teague responsible for negatives not positives.

Got it. 👍
 
As far as the OP goes I would say that neither was a bolter but Essendon will do better. Truck has now been in charge for a couple of years and has a definitive game plan that has been improving each year. Carlton probably has better top end players but always looked unstructured with no real game plan. Richmond won premierships as they changed the game plan to suit the players they had and then recruited to match the game plan. Hawthorn did the same with their accurate kicking gameplan in the early to mid 2010s. Carlton need to get a decent gameplan and then recruit their 2nd level players to buy into it and then the improvement will start. Essendon have already started this process.
 
The improvement needs to come from that next tier of players on their respective lists.

(I am not saying these are as good as each other)

It is the next tier of guys on each list who will decide the fortunes of each team. The returning guys as well who missed large chunks of football in 2021.

I have far more faith in Harry Jones, Sam Draper and Nik Cox and Archie Perkins improving Essendon as a team than I do Liam Stocker, Paddy Dow, Brodie Kemp or Will Setterfield / Tom De Koning.


Before anyone gets there nickers in a knot, yes, Walsh, Cripps, Weitering, McKay probably do have Parish, Merrett, Ridley and Stringer covered (not by much might I add) but it is that direct next tier that I again have more faith in. Dyson Heppell, Andy McGrath, Dylan Shiel, Devon Smith, Tippa (unsure on when he resumes but lets make him a place holder for effect) than I do on Adam Cerra, Zac Williams, Adam Saad, George Hewitt.

We haven't even made it to the initial grouping I was discussing before the talent really falls away for Carlton. Our third tier is guys like Kyle Langford, Jayden Laverde, Nick Hind, Will Snelling, James Stewart Mason Redman who despite not being household names really improved exponentially from the previous season hence the reasons for our success (one of the youngest on average games played sides most weeks and still managed finals).

These guys may not be household names but are much better than Carlton's group imho. Ed Curnow, Marc Pittonet, Jack Martin, Nic Newman etc.


then we hit that group I really take aim at for both of these sides. Who ever can explode in 2022 will go a long way to helping there respective side take aim this year.
 
The improvement needs to come from that next tier of players on their respective lists.

(I am not saying these are as good as each other)

It is the next tier of guys on each list who will decide the fortunes of each team. The returning guys as well who missed large chunks of football in 2021.

I have far more faith in Harry Jones, Sam Draper and Nik Cox and Archie Perkins improving Essendon as a team than I do Liam Stocker, Paddy Dow, Brodie Kemp or Will Setterfield / Tom De Koning.


Before anyone gets there nickers in a knot, yes, Walsh, Cripps, Weitering, McKay probably do have Parish, Merrett, Ridley and Stringer covered (not by much might I add) but it is that direct next tier that I again have more faith in. Dyson Heppell, Andy McGrath, Dylan Shiel, Devon Smith, Tippa (unsure on when he resumes but lets make him a place holder for effect) than I do on Adam Cerra, Zac Williams, Adam Saad, George Hewitt.

We haven't even made it to the initial grouping I was discussing before the talent really falls away for Carlton. Our third tier is guys like Kyle Langford, Jayden Laverde, Nick Hind, Will Snelling, James Stewart Mason Redman who despite not being household names really improved exponentially from the previous season hence the reasons for our success (one of the youngest on average games played sides most weeks and still managed finals).

These guys may not be household names but are much better than Carlton's group imho. Ed Curnow, Marc Pittonet, Jack Martin, Nic Newman etc.


then we hit that group I really take aim at for both of these sides. Who ever can explode in 2022 will go a long way to helping there respective side take aim this year.

Interesting analysis, I guess Charlie Curnow would slot into calculations, same with Dockerty and of course Cuningham towelled up McGrath last time they went head to head

I think both sides are at a similar level list wise, injuries will play a big role for both clubs
 
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