IFSo you're saying we're sitting pretty
Cerra comes on
Curnow overcomes injuries
TDK can mature into a quality 1st ruck
You find a CHB
and Voss gets some kids to develop and a new game plan is drilled into the list, then yes Carlton may push into contending zone.
I don't see that happening in 2022 though, 2023 might be the jump IMHO.
I'm not just talking a couple of missed picks, it is entire off seasons when Carlton were supposed to be building their list - 2016/17.Missing out on a couple of picks isn't going to haunt a club - I've shown you examples of clubs hitting successful periods despite a couple of poor drafts.
24 players brought into the club (half of a new list) and come 2023 you may have only a couple still on the list. That is horrible when supposedly starting a rebuild.
You are noting Hawthorn who in 3 year period 04-06 picked up Roughy, Lewis, Buddy, Young, X.Ellis, Birchall, Bailey, Gilham, Guerra, Renouf and Suckling who were premiership players for them also picked up Kennedy and McGlynn who had great careers at Sydney....that but they missed on Dowler and Thorpe.
Compare that to Carlton who in 15-17 added Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Plowman, Silvagni...Fisher, Dow and TDK who may be part of a successful Carlton side
Chalk and Cheese
Carlton's build compares to Gold Coast and Melbourne circa 2007-2010
??Why did we bring in Hewett and Cerra (who pending injury will play 150 games) if we don't value proven AFL players?
I asked why you didn't bring these type of players in 3-4 years ago.
Your new list manager values them which is good. Both good pick-ups IMHO.
I guess it depends on how much you value themDuring SOS' tenure we targeted Shiel, Rockliff, Smith, Saad, Coniglio, Papley, but it's not easy convincing quality players to join your club when you're sitting in the bottom 4.
The Lions grabbed Hodge, C.Cameron, Neale, McCarthy, Lyons and Adams when bottom 4 in 17-18.
Has certainly helped them, and their kids are flourishing not floundering.
Newman was the only one of those added before 2019, and he hardly a strong leader as was still finding his way himself as had only played what 30 games before Carlton picked him up.We added Newnes and Newman who are some pretty standard foot soldiers and have added a bit to the squad, if not purely for boosting training standards and adding competition for younger players.
Williams and Saad are proven AFL players.
Yes, I said Martin is a poor man's WHE, you paid him heaps and he has never kicked more than 25 goals in a season, unlike WHE.Guys like WHE leveraged a strong Pies team - someone compared his signing to Martin and I'd agree.
??One of Walsh or Weitering will be our next captain. They are both outstanding leaders in addition to being quality players - not sure how there is any argument to that? Hawthorn didn't have a lot of leadership while they were building into a premiership juggernaut, but guys like Mitchell, Hodge and Roughead were self-starters who led them out of the abyss and they added some quality players to compliment them - Burgoyne, Gibson, Lake et al. This is the model we are looking at
When Hawthorn hit the draft in 04-06, they had strong senior leaders in Vandenberg, Crawford, J.Smith and amazing young leaders already on the list in Mitchell, Hodge, C.Brown and Sewell.
And also added senior heads like Guerra, Dew, Burgoyne and Gibson pretty quickly.
Then they drafted in guys like Roughy and Lewis - the equivalent of Weitering and Walsh - but they were surrounded and supported by established leadership.
Weitering/Walsh had Murphy (selfish) and Cripps as the senior leaders and after 6 off seasons hardly adding the quality senior talent that Hawthorn did.
Chalk and Cheese again
As noted, Hawthorn had two misses but still very strong list additions in 04-06.Hawthorn killed it despite using first round picks in Dowler and Thorp in 2005 and 2006. Richmond and Melbourne both went on to win flags despite blowing a number of first rounders.
There isn't a lot of basis for what you're putting forward.
Carlton 15-17 is looking pretty ordinary in comparison.
Carlton fans keep trying to compare 15-18 to Hawks, but the reality is it is more like Dees 07-10....so yes it took the Dees more than a decade to build after they ballsed up 07-10, but they did finally get it right.
So yes, if following the Dees timeframe, Carlton might make finals in 2025 and win a flag in 2028.