Opinion Brian Cook - Carlton's rebuild still has a fair way to go

[Arr0w]

Happy for you to answer instead of deflecting


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Not deflecting at all. Rather than having a circular discussion/opinion, I have highlighted precedence, one that exists each year

Your claim, is if side E finishes above side C, the same will occur the following year, which everyone knows is false

4 sides were replaced in the top 8 from 2020, to 2021, the average over the last decade is 3 changes to the top 8 each year

If you can provide evidence that you had those 4 sides making the 8, after missing out the previous year, then I would view your opinion with more respect

Even some of your own supporters have stated that you may drop out of the 8 due to a tougher draw, why haven't you challenged them?

Again, I see both sides as having similar output next year, where both could make or just miss out on playing finals

 

[Ambrosia]

Snelling hasn't been half the player Curnow has been over a lot of years.

The threads about 2022

What Does Curnow’s previous achievements have to do with 2022? Snelling was better in 2021. Curnow is 32 and starting to look more than a little cooked especially when played outside of the midfield.

 

[Robertio]

What Does Curnow’s previous achievements have to do with 2022? Snelling was better in 2021. Curnow is 32 and starting to look more than a little cooked especially when played outside of the midfield.

Curnow had a role at half forward last year and done it well, did you notice your fellow supporter had him in his third tier of players. Of course Snelling had a better year, they were playing different positions, he's got a long way to go matching Curnows career and I'm not saying he won't.

 

[Ambrosia]

Curnow had a role at half forward last year and done it well, did you notice your fellow supporter had him in his third tier of players. Of course Snelling had a better year, they were playing different positions, he's got a long way to go matching Curnows career and I'm not saying he won't.

You don’t think Curnow should be the 3rd tier of players? My point is the tiers relate to 2022 and past achievements don’t mean a lot.

Curnow still spent plenty of time on ball last year and I think he’s more effective there then at HFF from what I’ve seen.

 

[Yoda_]

Not deflecting at all. Rather than having a circular discussion/opinion, I have highlighted precedence, one that exists each year

Your claim, is if side E finishes above side C, the same will occur the following year, which everyone knows is false

4 sides were replaced in the top 8 from 2020, to 2021, the average over the last decade is 3 changes to the top 8 each year

If you can provide evidence that you had those 4 sides making the 8, after missing out the previous year, then I would view your opinion with more respect

Even some of your own supporters have stated that you may drop out of the 8 due to a tougher draw, why haven't you challenged them?

Again, I see both sides as having similar output next year, where both could make or just miss out on playing finals

Why Carlton ? What makes them so special that they all of a sudden leap frog a number of sides and into the finals?

I can say that most years a team comes from the clouds and finishes in the top 4. 2022 will be Essendon. Just because.


I don't want basics, I want exacts. Reasons. You can make a case that Carlton will leap frog Fremantle (injuries, lack of depth), St.Kilda (just s**t despite having an ageing list) even Richmond (will they finally slide?). GWS may very well fall. Those very same metrics you suggest could apply to Hawthorn (a much better spread of players), Adelaide (A LOT of scope to improve) or even Gold Coast who the time is now or never to make a mark on the AFL.

All good to puff your chest but give me exacts why it will be Carlton please

 

[Yoda_]

Curnow had a role at half forward last year and done it well, did you notice your fellow supporter had him in his third tier of players. Of course Snelling had a better year, they were playing different positions, he's got a long way to go matching Curnows career and I'm not saying he won't.

Snelling is the epitome of a HFF. Not a huge goal kicker, not a huge I50 player but links the mids to the forwards as good as anyone.

You should watch more if you think Snelling doesn't play HF

 

[Robertio]

You don’t think Curnow should be the 3rd tier of players? My point is the tiers relate to 2022 and past achievements don’t mean a lot.

Curnow still spent plenty of time on ball last year and I think he’s more effective there then at HFF from what I’ve seen.

He had a role at haf forward on the attacking half backs he actually kicked some very nice goals as well, he's still one of the fittest players on our list. I'm quite comfortable having a role player such as him high in the 2nd tier. When you say past achievements it's not reflective on what he actually provided for the team in 2021.

 

[Robertio]

Snelling is the epitome of a HFF. Not a huge goal kicker, not a huge I50 player but links the mids to the forwards as good as anyone.

You should watch more if you think Snelling doesn't play HF

Mate I've got no clue on Snelling but i also didn't put him in any tier of players.

 

[Yoda_]

Mate I've got no clue on Snelling but i also didn't put him in any tier of players.

Snelling was compared to Curnow. Merely pointing out that he played a similar role to the one suggested Curnow played.

 

[Arr0w]

Why Carlton ? What makes them so special that they all of a sudden leap frog a number of sides and into the finals?

I can say that most years a team comes from the clouds and finishes in the top 4. 2022 will be Essendon. Just because.


I don't want basics, I want exacts. Reasons. You can make a case that Carlton will leap frog Fremantle (injuries, lack of depth), St.Kilda (just sh*t despite having an ageing list) even Richmond (will they finally slide?). GWS may very well fall. Those very same metrics you suggest could apply to Hawthorn (a much better spread of players), Adelaide (A LOT of scope to improve) or even Gold Coast who the time is now or never to make a mark on the AFL.

All good to puff your chest but give me exacts why it will be Carlton please

Leapfrog a number of sides and make finals, where did I post that? All I stated was I see both Carlton and Essendon having similar output next year

You want exact reasons, then state Essendon will make top 4 "just because" hilarious

You tried to make a number of comparisons, while omitting certain players, when challenged, you stated that Shiel is a better player than Charlie Curnow, when both are firing, staggering

Omitted Doc and compared him to Hurley that hasn't played for well over a year

Like me, you only have an opinion as to how both sides will fair next year, nothing that is factual, nor backed up by precedence

So I guess we will continue the debate end of the season

 

[Benga]

I can quite easily see a scenario in which the answer is both. Why does it have to bet either or?

Both lists have gone through a relatively recent decline, and both have built through the pointy end of the draft, all the while trading in players of quality/need.

The time for both these teams is now (not saying either team will win the flag however) but both teams would be well and truly eyeing off a top 6 finish. Hopefully higher.

As much as I dislike Essendon, I hope that it happens for them, as well as us. That's why I love footy. Having a crack at beating a rival team when all the chips are on the table.

While the class is spread differently in structure, Imo both lists are similar in quality and maturity. Both teams have some obvious and serious question marks also, and I suspect it will be whoever can answer those questions better will be the team ahead on the ladder. But imo both teams will be in the 8 at the end of next season.

 

[Ambrosia]

He had a role at haf forward on the attacking half backs he actually kicked some very nice goals as well, he's still one of the fittest players on our list. I'm quite comfortable having a role player such as him high in the 2nd tier. When you say past achievements it's not reflective on what he actually provided for the team in 2021.

He spent time at half forward for sure but he still played a lot of midfield. He had Carlton’s 3rd most centre clearances

 

[Robertio]

Snelling was compared to Curnow. Merely pointing out that he played a similar role to the one suggested Curnow played.

Mate you're comparing players, I simply gave my view about you putting Curnow in tier three.

 

[Robertio]

He spent time at half forward for sure but he still played a lot of midfield. He had Carlton’s 3rd most centre clearances

Should be tier one i reckon.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Carlton aren’t a mile off I don’t think. Teague was a truly terrible coach who detracted from them massively, so there should be some immediate improvement based on that (though it’ll take more than just one pre season). They have bonafide guns in McKay, Walsh and Weitering, get the rest playing solid, reliable roles around them and they’ll be dangerous enough. It’s all about having a good plan and 22 players buying into it. Carlton didn’t have a plan under Teague.

 

[Malifice]

Similar to Rebuild 3.0 in 2011/2012.

How on earth was that a third rebuild?

We've had two, that one (which started in 2004) and this one (which started in 2015).

We played in a GF in 1999, a Prelim in 2000 and a Semi in 2001 before bottoming out and finishing dead last in 2002 (the year we were done for Salary Cap rorting).

The rebuild itself didnt really start in earnest till 2004, because we were stripped of picks in 2002 (picks 1 and 2) and again in 2003 (our 1st and 2nd round picks so 5 and 20). Pretty hard to rebuild with no ******* draft picks.

We then picked up Murphy in 2005, Gibbs in 2006, Kruezer (and Judd) in 2007, and were back in the finals 2009-2011.

We then sacked Ratten, took Malthouse and imploded, starting this (second) rebuild under Bolton, beginning with the 2015 draft.

 

[Carl Tone]

Happy to listen to your argument about why Carlton who finished outside the 8 with a much inferior percentage to Essendon have a similar list?

Reality check coming your way in 2022. A super easy fixture in 2021 where the Bombers played the bottom 5 teams 8 times. Plus another 2 outside the 8. We’re given a hiding on a number of occasions and managed just one lucky win over a top 8 team, and were belted yet again in an elimination final by that same team when it actually mattered.

 

[Bjchan13]

Think Essendon will do well to hold a position in the 8. Can see Carltons list jumping into the top 6. Just depends on Voss and how well the group responds to him.

 

[B4Bear]

I can easily see both teams missing the eight next year.

I look at the prelim loss by the Bombers, it was horrid in the extreme. What have they done to address that? Where are the goals coming from? With a harder draw I think they will struggle and can see them being overtaken by Richmond for the eighth spot.

Then we have Carlton who were absolutely destroyed by North. Their much touted midfield were beyond bad, soft even. Where are you gaining the minimum 4 extra wins you will need to get into the final eight. Last year it was 11 wins, which is a low number by comparison to other years.

 

[boncer34]

I can easily see both teams missing the eight next year.

I look at the prelim loss by the Bombers, it was horrid in the extreme. What have they done to address that? Where are the goals coming from? With a harder draw I think they will struggle and can see them being overtaken by Richmond for the eighth spot.

Then we have Carlton who were absolutely destroyed by North. Their much touted midfield were beyond bad, soft even. Where are you gaining the minimum 4 extra wins you will need to get into the final eight. Last year it was 11 wins, which is a low number by comparison to other years.

We made the Prelim?

 

[B4Bear]

We made the Prelim?

Sorry, was daydreaming when I wrote that.

I should know better as an infrequent contributor to the 'Essendon haven't won a final in 2345 years' thread on our board.

 

[Ambrosia]

I can easily see both teams missing the eight next year.

I look at the prelim loss by the Bombers, it was horrid in the extreme. What have they done to address that? Where are the goals coming from? With a harder draw I think they will struggle and can see them being overtaken by Richmond for the eighth spot.

Then we have Carlton who were absolutely destroyed by North. Their much touted midfield were beyond bad, soft even. Where are you gaining the minimum 4 extra wins you will need to get into the final eight. Last year it was 11 wins, which is a low number by comparison to other years.

I think you’re overblowing singular games as data points. Carlton were missing Mckay against you and Essendon played the eventual grand finalist in horrid conditions.

 

[B4Bear]

I think you’re overblowing singular games as data points. Carlton were missing Mckay against you and Essendon played the eventual grand finalist in horrid conditions.

The loss of McKay was not the determining factor. Watch the replay, especially the third quarter.

Their midfield was destroyed, it may have a couple of excellent players in there. But it just doesn't produce the results that are needed on a consistent basis for a push into the finals.

And like I said, where are the minimum four extra wins coming from?

 

[Daine]

Reality check coming your way in 2022. A super easy fixture in 2021 where the Bombers played the bottom 5 teams 8 times. Plus another 2 outside the 8. We’re given a hiding on a number of occasions and managed just one lucky win over a top 8 team, and were belted yet again in an elimination final by that same team when it actually mattered.

Essendon did have very easy double ups, but we also travelled interstate or to Geelong eleven times, vs only five times for the blues. Big difference there. You also only had one double up against a top 8 team (Giants), so not exactly difficult either.
Our two worst losses were to Power (54) and Brisbane (57) away early in the season (we were poor early in the season with only two wins from the first eight games). In the game against Brisbane we had 12 players with under 50 games experience, vs four for Brisbane. In fact Brisbane's players averaged 112 games vs only 68 for us. No shame for a young and inexperienced team to lose badly against top 4 teams away.
Your worst losses were against Power by 95 points (Ouch!) and North Melbourne by 39. North only won three other games, with the highest margin being a 10 point victory. You had the worst performance against the wooden spooners by far.

It is also true that we only won against a top 8 side once (Bulldogs). However we did have close losses to Sydney (3 and 7 points) Giants (2) and Demons (11).
You only had one win vs a top 8 side too - Essendon, the weakest team in the top 8. The closest you got against any other top 8 side was 14 points.

 

[Ambrosia]

The loss of McKay was not the determining factor. Watch the replay, especially the third quarter.

Their midfield was destroyed, it may have a couple of excellent players in there. But it just doesn't produce the results that are needed on a consistent basis for a push into the finals.

And like I said, where are the minimum four extra wins coming from?

To be fair haven’t Carlton clearly address their midfield problems? Hewett and Cerra slot straight into the centre. Which in my book has them jump from one of the worst midfields into the comp to mid table. To take an extra step forward they need development from their young players and Cripps to get back to his best form.