2022 South Australian Election (March 19)

[NSWCROW]

Marshall 11 votes behind with 60.9% counted in Dunstan

 

[Festerz]

Marshall 11 votes behind with 60.9% counted in Dunstan

Saves the people of Dunstan a by-election sometime later this year or early next year if he loses now.

Looks like the people of Unley might not be so lucky - Pisoni has extended his lead to 370 votes today.

 

[Gethelred]

Simon Birmingham said virtually the same thing on Insiders. The Libs only lost because it's Labor's fault and the voting public are dumb.

Where is Kwality to tell them off for it?

 

[Gethelred]

View attachment 1350322

That's terrifying, for two reasons.

One, there's a difference between state and federal politics, and two because they needed to be told that both were from the same party.

 

[Festerz]

Looks like Pisoni will retain the seat of Unley:

And Marshall is looking more comfortable in the seat of Dunstan given the postal returns are favouring him.

Quote Reply

 

[Gough]

Meet the new leader of the opposition.

SA Environment Minister David Speirs says he loves his job, but is sick of dealing with 'Greta Thunbergs'

South Australia's Environment Minister David Speirs says he stands by comments he made at a Liberal Party fundraiser that "there's only so many times you can deal with the Greta Thunbergs of South Australia".

www.abc.net.au

Speaking on ABC radio, Mr Speirs confirmed he made the Greta Thunberg comment and told supporters he was being worn down by "crazy lefties."

He was also quoted telling supporters at the function that "there's a lot of noise and crap around climate change because all the ills of the world are put in the climate change basket by the left of politics".

Another glass jawed conservative.

 

[kalex6251]

where does he sit on the spectrum of religious flavoured RWNJ craziness?

[edit] the guardian has usefully provided some info on this question

A little more on David Speirs, who was today elected Liberal leader in South Australia. He said he would adopt a centrist agenda. The ABC reports that he said:

I think you can expect a traditional centre-right approach from my term as leader, I think most Australians want a party that’s pretty much politically centre.

There’s no reason to doubt a politician’s word, of course. But Speirs also reportedly told a pentecostal congregation to “forget” the separation of church and state. InDaily reported last year:

Speirs, who led the House of Assembly charge against the recent Termination of Pregnancy Bill introduced by attorney general and Liberal moderate Vickie Chapman, said his amendments helped “ensure that we have the most conservative abortion laws in the nation… the best of a bad bunch”.

 

[Number37]

Meet the new leader of the opposition.


Another glass jawed conservative.

How long do you give him Gough?

 

[Gough]

How long do you give him Gough?

No idea. Chapman resigning seems significant though, I'd love to see Ric Sarre take Bragg.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

No idea. Chapman resigning seems significant though, I'd love to see Ric Sarre take Bragg.

ECSA should be sending her an invoice.

 

[Number37]

No idea. Chapman resigning seems significant though, I'd love to see Ric Sarre take Bragg.

Sarre is one of the good guys.
Chapman resigns and her daughter-in-law Laura Jayes loses her "confidential insider sources".

 

[Gough]

Sarre is one of the good guys.
Chapman resigns and her daughter-in-law Laura Jayes loses her "confidential insider sources".

Sturt would be winnable to a teal candidate.

 

[Number37]

Sturt would be winnable to a teal candidate.

Cornes' wife came close to winning Sturt way back.
The average voter age in Sturt must be close to 60.

ALP should romp in Boothby. Elder/Gibson/Waite had >10% swing against the LNP in the state election.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Cornes' wife came close to winning Sturt way back.
The average voter age in Sturt must be close to 60.

ALP should romp in Boothby. Elder/Gibson/Waite had >10% swing against the LNP in the state election.

Sturt came so close in 2007. If Handshin were an Italian name it would've fallen.

Boothby really should be their easiest pick-up of the night, but 4 of the last 5 elections they've been hyped up and left us with blue balls. No Lib MPs in Adelaide would be a nice feeling.

 

[Number37]

Sturt came so close in 2007. If Handshin were an Italian name it would've fallen.

Boothby really should be their easiest pick-up of the night, but 4 of the last 5 elections they've been hyped up and left us with blue balls. No Lib MPs in Adelaide would be a nice feeling.

This time it will be different in Boothby.
Unley/Marion/Mitcham councils have all jumped on board the environment train in the last few years.
The Greens have a strong vote in Boothby (>10%) and they had + 5-10% swings in the state election in most of the seats that make up Boothby.
It's a shame that Nadia Clancy isn't running again because she came close to winning last time. She did win Elder at the state election with a sizeable swing.
It all bodes well. They've been hopeful before, there's a bit more to it than just hope this time. IMO Flint has done irreparable damage to the LNP brand by being too much of a partisan hack.

 

[DaRick]

WRT whether this wipeout portends ominous things for the Feds, that depends on two things:

1) Timing: How close is this election to the federal election? If the state and federal elections are close together, then the anger towards the state party is more likely to be due to their association with the Feds since people are more aware of an upcoming federal election. Plus anger towards the party brand would have less time to dissipate.

QLD 1995 is instructive in this regard - Wayne Goss lost government, and then Paul Keating got wiped out. By contrast, QLD 2001 and VIC 2018 were six months out or more. This election is more like QLD 1995 than the other two in this regard.

2) Context: How inept was the state party? Have the federal party done anything to alienate the locals? The LNP parties in QLD 2001 and VIC 2018 were completely inept and would have lost heavily regardless, whereas Goss' ALP government was generally competent, so if it wasn't for their association with the feds, they likely would have survived (they just barely lost).

Steven Marshall's government, from what the South Australians here have told me, was somewhere in-between - not great, but not particularly awful, and certainly streets ahead of Perrotet's government. Probably in the same league as Gladys' NSW government circa 2019, and Gladys held onto power. So it wasn't necessarily a fait accompli that Marshall's government would lose heavily. That suggests that he suffered somewhat by association with the feds.

The feds did quite a bit to piss off South Australians. The RATs debacle angered many South Australians, including older South Australians residing in safe federal seats like Grey. Also, ScoMo 'helpfully' called Adelaide a "s**t city", which IMO would have gone down about as well as Dutton swanning down to Melbourne and lecturing the locals about their issues. People don't like it when outsiders demean them, although I'm not sure that comment got quite as much traction as Dutton's. I think the RATs debacle is a bit too far back in the past to be a massive issue, given that cost of living issues are more prominent, but it's not a non-factor.

It is possible that South Australians were just venting momentary frustrations, and that defused some of their anger towards the LNP, because some have told me that they're not sure that desire to punish the LNP remains.

That said, at face value, the above two factors don't bode well for the feds. My impression is that ScoMo is also perceived quite negatively, which will drag down their vote. I'd appreciate it if the likes of Rotayjay Northalives Gough and Festerz could add their thoughts. Others are welcome to, also.

 

[Number37]

WRT whether this wipeout portends ominous things for the Feds, that depends on two things:

1) Timing: How close is this election to the federal election? If the state and federal elections are close together, then the anger towards the state party is more likely to be due to their association with the Feds since people are more aware of an upcoming federal election. Plus anger towards the party brand would have less time to dissipate.

QLD 1995 is instructive in this regard - Wayne Goss lost government, and then Paul Keating got wiped out. By contrast, QLD 2001 and VIC 2018 were six months out or more. This election is more like QLD 1995 than the other two in this regard.

2) Context: How inept was the state party? Have the federal party done anything to alienate the locals? The LNP parties in QLD 2001 and VIC 2018 were completely inept and would have lost heavily regardless, whereas Goss' ALP government was generally competent, so if it wasn't for their association with the feds, they likely would have survived (they just barely lost).

Steven Marshall's government, from what the South Australians here have told me, was somewhere in-between - not great, but not particularly awful, and certainly streets ahead of Perrotet's government. Probably in the same league as Gladys' NSW government circa 2019, and Gladys held onto power. So it wasn't necessarily a fait accompli that Marshall's government would lose heavily. That suggests that he suffered somewhat by association with the feds.

The feds did quite a bit to piss off South Australians. The RATs debacle angered many South Australians, including older South Australians residing in safe federal seats like Grey. Also, ScoMo 'helpfully' called Adelaide a "s**t city", which IMO would have gone down about as well as Dutton swanning down to Melbourne and lecturing the locals about their issues. People don't like it when outsiders demean them, although I'm not sure that comment got quite as much traction as Dutton's. I think the RATs debacle is a bit too far back in the past to be a massive issue, given that cost of living issues are more prominent, but it's not a non-factor.

It is possible that South Australians were just venting momentary frustrations, and that defused some of their anger towards the LNP, because some have told me that they're not sure that desire to punish the LNP remains.

That said, at face value, the above two factors don't bode well for the feds. My impression is that ScoMo is also perceived quite negatively, which will drag down their vote. I'd appreciate it if the likes of Rotayjay Northalives Gough and Festerz could add their thoughts. Others are welcome to, also.

People really warmed to Malinauskas.
Marshall is a dunderhead.

 

[Rotayjay]

WRT whether this wipeout portends ominous things for the Feds, that depends on two things:

1) Timing: How close is this election to the federal election? If the state and federal elections are close together, then the anger towards the state party is more likely to be due to their association with the Feds since people are more aware of an upcoming federal election. Plus anger towards the party brand would have less time to dissipate.

QLD 1995 is instructive in this regard - Wayne Goss lost government, and then Paul Keating got wiped out. By contrast, QLD 2001 and VIC 2018 were six months out or more. This election is more like QLD 1995 than the other two in this regard.

2) Context: How inept was the state party? Have the federal party done anything to alienate the locals? The LNP parties in QLD 2001 and VIC 2018 were completely inept and would have lost heavily regardless, whereas Goss' ALP government was generally competent, so if it wasn't for their association with the feds, they likely would have survived (they just barely lost).

Steven Marshall's government, from what the South Australians here have told me, was somewhere in-between - not great, but not particularly awful, and certainly streets ahead of Perrotet's government. Probably in the same league as Gladys' NSW government circa 2019, and Gladys held onto power. So it wasn't necessarily a fait accompli that Marshall's government would lose heavily. That suggests that he suffered somewhat by association with the feds.

The feds did quite a bit to piss off South Australians. The RATs debacle angered many South Australians, including older South Australians residing in safe federal seats like Grey. Also, ScoMo 'helpfully' called Adelaide a "s**t city", which IMO would have gone down about as well as Dutton swanning down to Melbourne and lecturing the locals about their issues. People don't like it when outsiders demean them, although I'm not sure that comment got quite as much traction as Dutton's. I think the RATs debacle is a bit too far back in the past to be a massive issue, given that cost of living issues are more prominent, but it's not a non-factor.

It is possible that South Australians were just venting momentary frustrations, and that defused some of their anger towards the LNP, because some have told me that they're not sure that desire to punish the LNP remains.

That said, at face value, the above two factors don't bode well for the feds. My impression is that ScoMo is also perceived quite negatively, which will drag down their vote. I'd appreciate it if the likes of Rotayjay Northalives Gough and Festerz could add their thoughts. Others are welcome to, also.

I can only offer unsubstantiated opinions and anecdotal points - the 'word on the street'.

For me personally, I thought the Marshall Liberal government was not good enough, but not terrible. It wasn't good enough due to privatisations (my pet hate), ambulance ramping, and several MPs being embroiled in various scandals.

But I simply didn't feel the same visceral hatred of the Marshall government that I do for the Morrison feds. I see the federal government as more fundamental to my life - taxation, industrial relations, etc.

I liked the Marshall government making positive investments in projects like the Lot Fourteen high-tech hub, and there was an air of greater business and consumer confidence. However, that trend towards confidence started in Labor's last term.

I would say that the stink of Morrison certainly rubbed off on the Marshall government. To what extent, I don't know. Surely at least a little. That time was the peak of anger surrounding the lack of RATs. The talk in Adelaide was dissatisfaction with ambulance ramping and the supposed botching of the reopening state border. Marshall copped flak from those who wanted more covid restrictions, and those who wanted to let it rip. Damned if he did, damned if he didn't. He struck a middle pathway that I thought was sensible, but he was damned nonetheless.

I would say that the Marshall government would still have lost due to the state issues, but the defeat may have been lighter had the Morrison government been less on the nose.

Peter Malinauskas' charisma was a factor too. I reckon he could become our John F. Kennedy or Tony Blair - a young, charismatic leader who people listen to. I have a feeling he will be premier for a long time, two terms or more.

Regarding my beloved seat of Boothby and whether the state results will translate into the seat flipping:

There are some middle-class-to-disadvantaged suburbs like South Plympton, Plympton Park, Edwardstown, Marion, Mitchell Park and Clovelly Park. But it's also full of fairly affluent areas like Glenelg, Somerton Park, Brighton, Springfield, Mitcham and Kingswood.

It has the entire coast from Glenelg North to Marino, and very generally speaking you need a decent income to live near the beach in Adelaide these days. On the other hand, there is a lot of public housing in the Plympton Park and Marion areas and these days you need to be down on your luck to get public housing. The electorate is, putting it very crudely, rich at the western beach, poor in the middle around South Road, and rich where it ends in the eastern foothills and gives way to Mayo (Alexander Downer's old seat).

In light of the state election results, some of the wealthier parts might swing towards Labor. I can see why it's been marginal but never goes Labor's way - it's a mixed bag in terms of the stereotypes of its suburbs, but the wealthier areas SEEM to edge out the poorer areas.

 

[Gough]

Vicki Chapman is the perfect example of the born to rule attitude of the Libs, twenty years in Parliament, four of it spent in Government and she thinks she can do what she likes.

 

[Number37]

Vicki Chapman is the perfect example of the born to rule attitude of the Libs, twenty years in Parliament, four of it spent in Government and she thinks she can do what she likes.

She thinks she's Jordan Belfort...

But she's really just the canary in the Liberal Party coal mine.

 

[Rotayjay]

Vicki Chapman is the perfect example of the born to rule attitude of the Libs, twenty years in Parliament, four of it spent in Government and she thinks she can do what she likes.

It's perhaps what pisses me off the most aboit the Liberal Party - the sense of entitlement and that they shouldn't be scrutinised. They reckon they're noblemen and noblewomen in the Europe of old.

 

[Millky95]

It's perhaps what pisses me off the most aboit the Liberal Party - the sense of entitlement and that they shouldn't be scrutinised. They reckon they're noblemen and noblewomen in the Europe of old.

Should ask the French what happened to them

 

[Gough]

Bit of a blink and you'd miss it story but this looks a lot like a teal run for Bragg and you'd be brave to bet against her.

Chelsey Potter says the Liberals have a 'serious problem' with women, and she wants to be part of the solution

A former Liberal staffer who has publicly criticised the party for its treatment of women is considering nominating for pre-selection for the by-election in the South Australian state seat of Bragg, spurred on by the lack of women running.

www.abc.net.au

 

[adogsfan5]

LOL

Dogs to sniff out COVID-19 in patients and visitors at Adelaide hospital

Four dogs will be deployed at a major Adelaide hospital to sniff visitors for COVID-19, after similar trials at airports last year.

www.abc.net.au

 

[DaRick]

Well, it looks like the state election was more like QLD 1995 than QLD 2001 - the result posed some very bad tidings for the Feds, and it looks like much of it was down to ScoMo himself.

Boothby's contest wasn't particularly close in the end, and Sturt almost fell too!

I know that Dutton is quite unpopular down there, and I think he loses Sturt unless there's an economic calamity. It's pretty much a blue-ribbon seat, and those types of seats don't like Dutton much.