Prediction 2017 Free Agency & Trading - go to the Gibbs thread if you wish to discuss Gibbs!!!

[marty36]

I dont think that bottoming out and bouncing back is that easy. Getting priority picks and father-son picks is another story. You have to be VFL royalty to get the helping hand you need. Hawks got Roughead (priority), Franklin and Lewis with picks 2, 5 and 7 of the 2004 draft. Luke Hodge (priority) pick 1 of the 2001 draft and probably a number of other gifts. Their premiership run was bought and paid for by the AFL. GWS will be next, but that is a "business" decision. The AFL will continue to rig the system to suit their agenda.

You just named all the low picks the only way to get them is to bottom out

Priority picks are low picks

But then you need to pick right

 

[Shaz2012]

You just named all the low picks the only way to get them is to bottom out

Priority picks are low picks

But then you need to pick right

Yes, but you dont get them simply by tanking. The Hawks needed the AFL to gift them two of the games premier players. You also need to be lucky for them to be available in your high draft pick years. Finally, you need a recruiting network that can successfully identify the good players. Tigers took Richard Tambling before Hawks took Buddy. And then we took him off their hands for a first and a third round pick. As others have mentioned, plenty of teams have bottomed out and had their top draft picks and have not been close to a premiership.

 

[marty36]

Yes, but you dont get them simply by tanking. The Hawks needed the AFL to gift them two of the games premier players. You also need to be lucky for them to be available in your high draft pick years. Finally, you need a recruiting network that can successfully identify the good players. Tigers took Richard Tambling before Hawks took Buddy. And then we took him off their hands for a first and a third round pick. As others have mentioned, plenty of teams have bottomed out and had their top draft picks and have not been close to a premiership.

The trick is to get those early picks right like the Hawks did

 

[kulak]

I dont think that bottoming out and bouncing back is that easy. Getting priority picks and father-son picks is another story. You have to be VFL royalty to get the helping hand you need. Hawks got Roughead (priority), Franklin and Lewis with picks 2, 5 and 7 of the 2004 draft. Luke Hodge (priority) pick 1 of the 2001 draft and probably a number of other gifts. Their premiership run was bought and paid for by the AFL. GWS will be next, but that is a "business" decision. The AFL will continue to rig the system to suit their agenda.

What a bizarre post.

In 2001 Hawthorn got picks 1 (Hodge), 20 and 36 (Mitchell) in a trade with Fremantle for Croad and McPharlin.

In 2004 yes pick 2 (Roughead) was a priority pick. Pick 5 was their pick and pick 7 was effectively from trading Nathan Thompson to North.

It's always the people with a poor grip on the facts who believe stuff like a VFL conspiracy.

 

[marty36]

What a bizarre post.

In 2001 Hawthorn got picks 1 (Hodge), 20 and 36 (Mitchell) in a trade with Fremantle for Croad and McPharlin.

In 2004 yes pick 2 (Roughead) was a priority pick. Pick 5 was their pick and pick 7 was effectively from trading Nathan Thompson to North.

It's always the people with a poor grip on the facts who believe stuff like a VFL conspiracy.

There is no conspiracy, you play by the rules, as what has happened with GWS and GC and Cola, the acadamys, its an effort to ensure an even competition. No diffrent to any other sport I remember yeras ago reading about motor racing and how ceratin down drafts and brake sizes evened up Holden and Ford cars if one gets faster than the other restrictions will be placed on the car to even up the pace to make them competitive

Its hard to get any handicap rght so they will be changed in an attempt to keep the comp even.

We have a case here in the SANFL with two AFL clubs restrictions need to be placed to make the competition even, do they get it right, who knows.

Trying to set handicaps is near impossible

 

[Sanders]

Let's win something before declaring our way is best!

Hey, we've finished higher than 6th once in the last decade or so

What more do you want???

 

[Vader]

I was thinking about this today. Our 5 superstars are evenly spread.

Big forward - Walker
Small forward - Betts
Midfield - Sloane
Big defender - Talia
Small defender - Laird

Probably our 5 best players

Then you have quality support across the park too.

Still concerning that Sloane is the only midfield player on that list - arguably the only midfielder in our top-10.

 

[Team DJ]

Retire - Thompson
Delist - CEY Gore Hunter*
Trade - Dear
Demotion - Ben Davis
Promotion - Beech Greenwood
Retain - Keath Jarman

 

[GreyCrow]

Is Shaw still on our list? Or Rookie list?

 

[Shaz2012]

What a bizarre post.

In 2001 Hawthorn got picks 1 (Hodge), 20 and 36 (Mitchell) in a trade with Fremantle for Croad and McPharlin.

In 2004 yes pick 2 (Roughead) was a priority pick. Pick 5 was their pick and pick 7 was effectively from trading Nathan Thompson to North.

It's always the people with a poor grip on the facts who believe stuff like a VFL conspiracy.

Fair enough. One of the examples I picked was flawed. But the AFL does have a distinct inequality policy and we get the worst of it. You cant have equalisation and then on top of it allow father-son, academy, COLA and priority picks. It continually eats away at clubs like AFC and in the current case, even supercedes our own good work to open a premiership window. Despite not having any of the above we have opened up a 3 to 4 year window, yet we will be unlikely to win a premiership with GWS and its 25 first round picks.

 

[Team DJ]

Is Shaw still on our list? Or Rookie list?

Rookie

 

[marty36]

Fair enough. One of the examples I picked was flawed. But the AFL does have a distinct inequality policy and we get the worst of it. You cant have equalisation and then on top of it allow father-son, academy, COLA and priority picks. It continually eats away at clubs like AFC and in the current case, even supercedes our own good work to open a premiership window. Despite not having any of the above we have opened up a 3 to 4 year window, yet we will be unlikely to win a premiership with GWS and its 25 first round picks.

Is it a flawed handicap system the AFL are using?

 

[Vader]

Retire - Thompson
Delist - CEY Gore Hunter*
Trade - Dear
Demotion - Ben Davis
Promotion - Beech Greenwood
Retain - Keath Jarman

Demotion?

You do realise that there's no mechanism for moving a player directly to the rookie list. You have to delist them, then re-draft them in the RD.

 

[dogs105]

And the best spot for that strenght is in the Mid, wouldnt you agree

Wayne Carey doesn't

 

[marty36]

Wayne Carey doesn't

No agree Norths dynasty was built on the back of the King, but the hawks , geelong Brisbane and west coast with their dynasties were built on the back of dominant midfields. I suppose you need to get the ball to win the game and it all starts in the engine room

 

[Shaz2012]

Is it a flawed handicap system the AFL are using?

Yes, I think so. At least the degree of handicap must be reduced significantly I like the idea of NSW/Queensland academy systems. It gives elite Australian kids in non footy playing states a pathway. But there is no reason that once the kids are developed they can't go on to the open market anyway. For example, Swans shouldn't get free access to Heeney and Mills. These guys could have gone into the draft and young NSW kids would still be motivated by this to play footy. So the question becomes, what would motivate the Swans to still run the academy. Well, one solution would be for the AFL to run the academies themselves. I would be in favour of this. They can do this without any difficulty. They probably already finance them anyway. Or a possible motivation for the Swans to do it anyway would be access to inside information so that they can identify later picks with potential more accurately than others. Pick up their own Atkins, Lairds etc. In a truly equalised system, any advantage would be huge, so if a club can afford to run an academy to get that inside information, it will be a significant benefit. If the AFL are paying for the Swans academy, but give them no priority picks, then it is still in the Swans interest to run that academy and develop as many elite kids as they can. They may not get the best ones that come out of it, but they can still benefit, and if the AFL pays for it then it is no loss to them.

What has happened with GWS now is ridiculous. Credit to GWS for making the most of it, but the AFL has done a disservice to all traditional AFL fans in the country. The very fans that let them exist. The AFL just meddles in everything, from this issue to rule changes. The whole competition would be better if they actually left things alone.

 

[Team DJ]

Demotion?

You do realise that there's no mechanism for moving a player directly to the rookie list. You have to delist them, then re-draft them in the RD.

Yes I do. I am surprised you do. Thats exactly what i am insinuating here writing that in 1 word rather than 10.

 

[Vader]

I don't have a problem with Sydney having access to Mills & Heeney. Neither came from traditional football areas, and both were developed within their Academy. What I did object to was the NSW Riverina area being included in the GWS Academy region. The Riverina has long been a traditional source of AFL players, with the likes of Wayne Carey getting their start there.

I think the AFL have done the right thing with the changes they've made this year. The Riverina has been removed from the GWS area, and the number of 1st round academy selections is now limited depending on a club's ladder position. These changes go a long way towards fixing the inequalities that the Academy systems introduced.

 

[marty36]

Yes, I think so. At least the degree of handicap must be reduced significantly I like the idea of NSW/Queensland academy systems. It gives elite Australian kids in non footy playing states a pathway. But there is no reason that once the kids are developed they can't go on to the open market anyway. For example, Swans shouldn't get free access to Heeney and Mills. These guys could have gone into the draft and young NSW kids would still be motivated by this to play footy. So the question becomes, what would motivate the Swans to still run the academy. Well, one solution would be for the AFL to run the academies themselves. I would be in favour of this. They can do this without any difficulty. They probably already finance them anyway. Or a possible motivation for the Swans to do it anyway would be access to inside information so that they can identify later picks with potential more accurately than others. Pick up their own Atkins, Lairds etc. In a truly equalised system, any advantage would be huge, so if a club can afford to run an academy to get that inside information, it will be a significant benefit. If the AFL are paying for the Swans academy, but give them no priority picks, then it is still in the Swans interest to run that academy and develop as many elite kids as they can. They may not get the best ones that come out of it, but they can still benefit, and if the AFL pays for it then it is no loss to them.

What has happened with GWS now is ridiculous. Credit to GWS for making the most of it, but the AFL has done a disservice to all traditional AFL fans in the country. The very fans that let them exist. The AFL just meddles in everything, from this issue to rule changes. The whole competition would be better if they actually left things alone.

Handicaps are guaranteed never to be a good way of running a comp you are forever trying to compensate, but looking at the northern states it seems a necessary evil or the sport will die in the most populated regions in Australia.

The AFL are in a no win position trying to make it work, they will annoy the southern states by over compensating but wont get the growth they need and must have if they under compensate

 

[Shaz2012]

Handicaps are guaranteed never to be a good way of running a comp you are forever trying to compensate, but looking at the northern states it seems a necessary evil or the sport will die in the most populated regions in Australia.

The AFL are in a no win position trying to make it work, they will annoy the southern states by over compensating but wont get the growth they need and must have if they under compensate

Like I said, I am not calling into question the academies. Just the end distribution of its players.

 

[marty36]

Like I said, I am not calling into question the academies. Just the end distribution of its players.

ATM Brisbane and GC are dying a slow death, how do you make them stronger, I dont believe your suggestion will

 

[Shaz2012]

ATM Brisbane and GC are dying a slow death, how do you make them stronger, I dont believe your suggestion will

Its not our job to make them stronger though. Its up to them to lift their standard and fix whatever is fundamentally wrong with what they are doing. If the problem is that good players are always leaving and they lose out on these trade deals, then the AFL could do something on that end to give them more chances of getting a favorable trade.

For example, if the club cant agree a trade for a player like O'Meara then give the Suns the option of sending him to the draft. If he gets picked up with pick 5, then give GC the very next pick, pick 6. This would give exact market value of the player as compensation. It might make the draft complicated, but it keeps the competition fair. I am sure there are better ideas out there, but we are an intelligent country, we can figure out a fair way to keep things even, but still holding clubs responsible for managing their own success rather than giving it to them on a plate.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Retire - Thompson
Delist - CEY Gore Hunter*
Trade - Dear
Demotion - Ben Davis
Promotion - Beech Greenwood
Retain - Keath Jarman

Think they are merging the main & rookie lists any way...

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

ATM Brisbane and GC are dying a slow death, how do you make them stronger, I dont believe your suggestion will

Most sporting teams die in the Gold Coast.

Should give their license to Tasmania, an actual footballing state.

 

[Captain Furious]

Retire - Thompson
Delist - CEY Gore Hunter*
Trade - Dear
Demotion - Ben Davis
Promotion - Beech Greenwood
Retain - Keath Jarman

As a draftee, Davis has a two year contract, so can't be 'demoted', even if that were possible.

Be interesting what we'd get for Dear. That 2 marking forwards have gone down and our only back up marking forward isn't being considered, is a pretty fair sign of his progress. But other clubs are generally obsessed with anyone over 195cm, so there's a chance we'd maybe get a 3rd round pick.