List Mgmt. 2020: Death Riding Melbourne [NMFC owns MFC's 1st (#9) & 4th (#64) 2020 picks] - Keep Your Eye on the Red and the Blue

[giantroo]

Thanks for that Giantroo......further to that,.....does that mean they go down a pick or two....apologies I've taken no notice of the points system....

Yes.

Each pick has a points value. Pick 1 (3000), etc . For Pick 1 you must have the full allocation of points (3000) to keep the pick even though you may have enough to cover pick 2 (2,517).

From there, you just minus the point deficit (265) and you get the table I've posted.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I like your enthusiasm Snake. I really do.

But I just don’t see it.

All of those clubs will use their first rounder, maybe trying to shuffle backwards ie turn 10 into 18, or 10 into 4. To avoid either having to use their first pick on an academy player, or swap their pick for a late first rounder and get a player.

We got Thomas without a first rounder, who was bid on at 8. Clubs (at least most) want the top end of talent and with academy players want to maximise the value of those players. If pykie is correct and the top 5 (2 of which are academy picks) are that great, the race will be on to move up to picks 1,2,3,4,5. Picks below that will be in no mans land as they are increasingly pushed back as more bids come in.

I can’t see any demand from other clubs for picks we are likely to have next year, assuming mid table finishes for north and the godees, from a point point of view.

Further, given the ballooning nature of picks 6+, I cant see a massive demand from a trade point of view either.

There's a million permutations to play out yet. Just chill for now.

 

[Filthy Sanchez]

And how many teams go from 5 wins to a flag in one season?

Richmond went from eight wins to a premiership.

And this is my smug way of subscribing to another glorious BIgFooty death riding thread

 

[Themanbun]

I can't find it now but I remember reading something from Nate Silver about how NFL or NBA trades in which a team split their early draft pick for several later picks more often than not worked out better for the team who split their pick. Can't for the life of me find it but I wonder if that's factored into our strategy.

 

[DesertRoo]

I like your enthusiasm Snake. I really do.

But I just don’t see it.

All of those clubs will use their first rounder, maybe trying to shuffle backwards ie turn 10 into 18, or 10 into 4. To avoid either having to use their first pick on an academy player, or swap their pick for a late first rounder and get a player.

We got Thomas without a first rounder, who was bid on at 8. Clubs (at least most) want the top end of talent and with academy players want to maximise the value of those players. If pykie is correct and the top 5 (2 of which are academy picks) are that great, the race will be on to move up to picks 1,2,3,4,5. Picks below that will be in no mans land as they are increasingly pushed back as more bids come in.

I can’t see any demand from other clubs for picks we are likely to have next year, assuming mid table finishes for north and the godees, from a point point of view.

Further, given the ballooning nature of picks 6+, I cant see a massive demand from a trade point of view either.

It’s a big balls Brady call but it’s simple supply and demand. It actually works out worse for the teams with academy players, when the a whole heap like there is. as they all want to do the same strategy of either getting out of the first round or getting a really low pick. Those first round picks next year could become gold. I hope we aim for another one before the madness of next year begins.

 

[Mordecai]

I can't find it now but I remember reading something from Nate Silver about how NFL or NBA trades in which a team split their early draft pick for several later picks more often than not worked out better for the team who split their pick. Can't for the life of me find it but I wonder if that's factored into our strategy.

Would be very keen to read if you do find it.

 

[Quintero]

Masked Avenger

Put old RZ in the Kool aid drinking crew.

He and a few others should Daniel Bandy together, swap digits and set up a whatsapp group to metaphorically 'hum on the balls' of the club for all the genius moves we make.

The way some of them carry on is borderline mental illness, considering how abject we truly are.

They will bamboozle you with a spreadsheet, a few macros, some sort of forensic analysis of data that 'proves' we have just as many elite players as Richmond and with a bit of luck, fair umpiring, we'll be top 4 next year etc etc.

They literally force you to write negative s**t, just so you can watch them melt like the wicked witch of the east.

We started the day in Ash/Kemp territory and have ended the day praying for 'Sergio' Garcia or 'Frank' Worrell and a top 4 team from 2018 to once again s**t the bed just to break even, yet somehow that it is a ******* big enough win to abuse fellow supporters.

It's shameful. I deserve the s**t I cop, and I happily take it on the chin with insult culture being a big part of the 'Argy Way' - but you'd think at some point these supposed supporters would learn to just not reply if they don't have interest in the post, rather than being a utensil smoker.

 

[RobZombie]

Let say we have picks 8 + 9 next year. Can you please explain to me how a team with a top 15 academy kid will engage us in a deal to suit their needs?

Hawks or crows might bottom out to pick 3 or 4 and not want to risk using it on a bid. Could turn 8&9 into 3 & a later 1st or (very) early 2nd. Could to that with a non academy club. There could be picks slinging around all over the place. Could just use them.

 

[the big lebowski]

It’s a big balls Brady call but it’s simple supply and demand. It actually works out worse for the teams with academy players, when the a whole heap like there is. as they all want to do the same strategy of either getting out of the first round or getting a really low pick. Those first round picks next year could become gold. I hope we aim for another one before the madness of next year begins.

I’m not seeing the demand you speak of? We have lots of what no one wants? (Assuming mid table finishes)

 

[the big lebowski]

Hawks or crows might bottom out to pick 3 or 4 and not want to risk using it on a bid. Could turn 8&9 into 3 & a later 1st or (very) early 2nd. Could to that with a non academy club. There could be picks slinging around all over the place. Could just use them.

I just don’t think that’s how these things have worked. Pick 3 or 4 is so valuable that your really only getting pick 9 in that scenario, as 8 is used up on matching the bid. I would think Adelaide or hawthorn would instead turn pick 3 or 4 into a gun player and match bids with later picks and maybe a deficit the next year, or turn pick 3 into first round selections the following year.

I’ll stand corrected but I don’t see the demand for mid first round picks next year. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Richmond went from eight wins to a premiership.

And this is my smug way of subscribing to another glorious BIgFooty death riding thread

This is what many miss around here.

Very ordinary teams on a roll can win premierships these days.

 

[Rod Stroker]

Purely on the points we're ahead on the trade, and gives the impression that we think our kids and the list has good organic growth in it to cover not needing a first round pick this year. I just hope that our crack at our flag isn't hindered or impacted by not picking up top talent in this years draft.

 

[hilly]

Masked Avenger

Put old RZ in the Kool aid drinking crew.

He and a few others should Daniel Bandy together, swap digits and set up a whatsapp group to metaphorically 'hum on the balls' of the club for all the genius moves we make.

The way some of them carry on is borderline mental illness, considering how abject we truly are.

They will bamboozle you with a spreadsheet, a few macros, some sort of forensic analysis of data that 'proves' we have just as many elite players as Richmond and with a bit of luck, fair umpiring, we'll be top 4 next year etc etc.

They literally force you to write negative s**t, just so you can watch them melt like the wicked witch of the east.

We started the day in Ash/Kemp territory and have ended the day praying for 'Sergio' Garcia or 'Frank' Worrell and a top 4 team from 2018 to once again s**t the bed just to break even, yet somehow that it is a ******* big enough win to abuse fellow supporters.

It's shameful. I deserve the s**t I cop, and I happily take it on the chin with insult culture being a big part of the 'Argy Way' - but you'd think at some point these supposed supporters would learn to just not reply if they don't have interest in the post, rather than being a utensil smoker.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[RobZombie]

I just don’t think that’s how these things have worked. Pick 3 or 4 is so valuable that your really only getting pick 9 in that scenario, as 8 is used up on matching the bid. I would think Adelaide or hawthorn would instead turn pick 3 or 4 into a gun player and match bids with later picks and maybe a deficit the next year, or turn pick 3 into first round selections the following year.

I’ll stand corrected but I don’t see the demand for mid first round picks next year. Hope I’m wrong.

Closest trade I can find is 2016, when Hawthorn gave St Kilda 23, 36, and a future first for picks 10 and 68. St Kilda used 23 (became 25) on Ben Long, 36 (39) on Josh Battle, and then were able to take Clark and Coffield together in 2017. Hawthorn used 10 to get O'Meara and Gold Coast used it to match a bid on Bowes. The next 3 live picks after it were used on FLorent, Simpkin, and Venables.

St Kilda got Clark, Battle and Long at the cost of missing out on a Simpkin or Florent. I'd be more than ok with that sort of outcome. Plus they had the pleasure of death-riding Hawthorn's slide from 3rd to 10th. Which is what this thread should be about, the death riding. So I'll stop here.

Go whoever's playing the Dees.

 

[Masked Avenger]

Sure. I just sometimes snap at that guy. I don’t really see anything in his posts that suggest "North supporter", just a weirdly bitter person who hates everyone at the club.

The main part of the deal is a swap of firsts, which on its own would be betting on our relative ladder position to theirs and almost defensible if you wanted to make the case that its better to hold that pick in one year rather than another. My guess is they finish somewhere in the 7-10 range and the actual pick value is a wash.

BUT they also threw in a mid-2nd and a late 3rd. That does 2 things

- gets our last pick up from the 70s to 50 (likely earlier after bids are matched).
- gives us a second round pick FOR FREE.

In the likely case that Melbourne are around the fringe of the 8 it really is about double the value back to us at the cost of dropping out of the top 10 this year.

The whole "it’s a win even if it’s pick 18" is based on the probability of overall career value you can be expected to get from 18, 27 and 50 vs just 8. Of course that could be the sum output of Atley, Macmillan & Dec Mountford vs one DeGoey or Tarryn Thomas, and some players' output is easier to replace than others. And by some measure the total output of Atley, Macmillan and Mountford is probably greater than DeGoey's. But the 8 could also be Luke McDonald or peter Wright or Adam Tomlinson. Which is, you know, fine, and 150-game players don’t grow on trees (see also Atley and Macmillan: fashionable as is is to denigrate them, they are also the quality of player that doesn’t grow on trees).

PLUS the extra 1st rounder is extra useful as a commodity next year when clubs with NGA picks will be trying to navigate their way around the likely bids. PLUS we have a LOT more wiggle room with contracts next year than Joyces and McMahons saddled us with this year. PLUS we’ve got enough kids queued up for a shot - Scott, Taylor, Crocker, Hayden, Murphy, plus Hall and Tyson wanting to make amends - that putting off hitting the draft for a year makes sense.

PLUS giving the extra trading and recruiting goodies to the new guys instead of the lame ducks is smarter than handing over a bunch busted C-graders you just traded in because Bigfooty was bored.

Sure. I just sometimes snap at that guy. I don’t really see anything in his posts that suggest "North supporter", just a weirdly bitter person who hates everyone at the club.

The main part of the deal is a swap of firsts, which on its own would be betting on our relative ladder position to theirs and almost defensible if you wanted to make the case that its better to hold that pick in one year rather than another. My guess is they finish somewhere in the 7-10 range and the actual pick value is a wash.

BUT they also threw in a mid-2nd and a late 3rd. That does 2 things

- gets our last pick up from the 70s to 50 (likely earlier after bids are matched).
- gives us a second round pick FOR FREE.

In the likely case that Melbourne are around the fringe of the 8 it really is about double the value back to us at the cost of dropping out of the top 10 this year.

The whole "it’s a win even if it’s pick 18" is based on the probability of overall career value you can be expected to get from 18, 27 and 50 vs just 8. Of course that could be the sum output of Atley, Macmillan & Dec Mountford vs one DeGoey or Tarryn Thomas, and some players' output is easier to replace than others. And by some measure the total output of Atley, Macmillan and Mountford is probably greater than DeGoey's. But the 8 could also be Luke McDonald or peter Wright or Adam Tomlinson. Which is, you know, fine, and 150-game players don’t grow on trees (see also Atley and Macmillan: fashionable as is is to denigrate them, they are also the quality of player that doesn’t grow on trees).

PLUS the extra 1st rounder is extra useful as a commodity next year when clubs with NGA picks will be trying to navigate their way around the likely bids. PLUS we have a LOT more wiggle room with contracts next year than Joyces and McMahons saddled us with this year. PLUS we’ve got enough kids queued up for a shot - Scott, Taylor, Crocker, Hayden, Murphy, plus Hall and Tyson wanting to make amends - that putting off hitting the draft for a year makes sense.

PLUS giving the extra trading and recruiting goodies to the new guys instead of the lame ducks is smarter than handing over a bunch busted C-graders you just traded in because Bigfooty was bored.

We can agree to disagree on the overall value of points vs top end picks. The first rule of draft club is that unless a quality player is involved you never ever give up a top 10 draft pick unless you're guaranteed one back. With the nature of next year's draft, It's assumed that Melbourne will have to finish bottom 6 for us to be guaranteed one. People say picking up Melbourne's pick 26 hedges against that risk. Does it? Unlikely that the points attached to that pick, even coupled with other picks, will snare an elite talent. If we go to the draft with 26 - well let's say It's a lottery. Look at the second round draftees for last 5 years.You can count less than a handful of elite players have come from there. It's a graveyard. Time will tell.

 

[koshari]

This is what many miss around here.

Very ordinary teams on a roll can win premierships these days.

richmond are not an ordinary team, sure the doggies were but they played their asses off to win that flag. theres a reason they say the cream rises to the top. its unusual for poor teams to even make prelims. brisbane couldnt even make a prelim with a double chance this year.

i agree it can happen however its far from the norm.

 

[Snake_Baker]

richmond are not an ordinary team........

The individual group of 22 blokes are collectively as weak as any that have ever won a premiership.

It was strategy that won them flags.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

The individual group of 22 blokes are collectively as weak as any that have ever won a premiership.

It was strategy that won them flags.

Four guns plus change.

 

[RobZombie]

We can agree to disagree on the overall value of points vs top end picks. The first rule of draft club is that unless a quality player is involved you never ever give up a top 10 draft pick unless you're guaranteed one back. With the nature of next year's draft, It's assumed that Melbourne will have to finish bottom 6 for us to be guaranteed one. People say picking up Melbourne's pick 26 hedges against that risk. Does it? Unlikely that the points attached to that pick, even coupled with other picks, will snare an elite talent. If we go to the draft with 26 - well let's say It's a lottery. Look at the second round draftees for last 5 years.You can count less than a handful of elite players have come from there. It's a graveyard. Time will tell.

For the most part I actually agree. My default preference most offseasons is to try and get the best single talent you can into the club and the rest is window dressing. Most years you don't have a windfall like an academy/FS or a player with high currency leaving to give you access to multiple high end talents.

This year I think is different for a couple of reasons:
- Joyce &co hamstrung us at the start of the year with so few players coming out of contract. As it stands now we've got about 18 coming out in 2020.
- I'm more optimistic about the youth already on our list than I usually am
- we finally have a more adventurous trader coming in to run things, but not until next year.

And of course, with pick trading extending through past the end of the main trade period and live trading on draft night, it's not all done until it's done. And we now have more currency and flexibility than we usually do for that. I'm also ok with delayed gratification and the fun of the death ride.

 

[R00StaR]

Its interesting being light on trading and trading our first pick. Its almost like the club is putting the heat on this exxisting group saying "deliver next season or we're primed for a rebuild"

 

[Snake_Baker]

Four guns plus change.

Yep, as soon as Caracella got there and looked at Martin, Cotchin and Riewoldt, then the aerial defensive wall of Astbury, Vlaustin & Grimes complimented with Rance's rebound, he turned around to that halfwit Hardwick and told him to get him as many small forwards as he could find.

The rest is history.

 

[RobZombie]

AND NOW WE’RE DEATH RIDING THEIR FOURTH ROUNDER TOO. DEATHRIDE MAIN COURSE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AMUSE-BOUCHE OF LATE PICK GOODNESS. LET’S GET NICK LARKEY’S BROTHER NATHAN WITH IT.

 

[Biffinator]

Hello Northites. I am happy to join you for the Death-Ride, cheese-platter and all. The young Red Legs will deliver the goods, I am sure. Now, where are my old mates Meltdown Mario and Sweet Left Flog? Are they still in the land of the living on buried in a pauper's grave? How is the inflatable pool getting on down at Arden Street?

Happy to be the Voice of the Dees - your social and existential superiors - until the end of the GF 2020 in this thread.

And yes, Go Deeeeeeeeeeesssssss!

 

[Harvey Manfrenjensenden]

Hello Northites. I am happy to join you for the Death-Ride, cheese-platter and all. The young Red Legs will deliver the goods, I am sure. Now, where are my old mates Meltdown Mario and Sweet Left Flog? Are they still in the land of the living on buried in a pauper's grave? How is the inflatable pool getting on down at Arden Street?

Happy to be the Voice of the Dees - your social and existential superiors - until the end of the GF 2020 in this thread.

And yes, Go Deeeeeeeeeeesssssss!

 

[Biffinator]

Lidge was more of a handful than SFL but I put them both into fence at Point. Now I am predicting that North will win the Spoon in 2020 - their first since 1972 so bravo - whereas the Redlegs will glide to their 13th premiership. Does that mean that we win the Death-Ride?

 

[LETSGOKANGAS]

Just checked the almanac.

Melbourne finish 13th.