Preview 2023 Rd 9 Carlton vs Western Bulldogs Saturday May 13 7:30PM @ Marvel Stadium

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Team is in …






IN: Matthew Cottrell, Matthew Kennedy, Matthew Owies
OUT: Ed Curnow (Omitted), Josh Honey (Omitted), Brodie Kemp (Omitted)






Backs:Lewis YoungJacob WeiteringNic Newman
Half-backs:Matt KennedyMitch McGovernAdam Saad
Centreline:Blake AcresPatrick CrippsOliver Hollands
Half-forwards:Sam WalshHarry McKayJack Silvagni
Forwards:Corey DurdinCharlie CurnowJesse Motlop
Followers:Marc PittonetGeorge HewettSam Docherty
Interchange:Alex CincottaAdam CerraMatthew Cottrell
Matthew Owies
Emergencies:Ed CurnowJordan BoydLachie Fogarty
Brodie Kemp
 
Carlton-vs-Bulldogs.png

Sigh

The preview I wrote was lost, but it needed rewriting anyway. Too upbeat. Not what the team are delivering.

The record for the first 8 rounds and the recent history versus the Dogs seem to indicate we are evenly matched.



The Doggies’ season so far…

RndHome Team Away Team
R1Melbourne3.39.413.817.13(115)dftdWestern Bulldogs2.45.98.109.11(65)
R2Western Bulldogs0.14.55.85.11(41)lost toSt Kilda4.15.411.514.8(92)
R3Western Bulldogs1.24.38.410.7(67)dftdBrisbane Lions1.32.76.87.11(53)
R4Richmond2.410.710.1112.12(84)lost toWestern Bulldogs6.38.59.1112.17(89)
R5Port Adelaide3.55.86.1010.10(70)dftdWestern Bulldogs1.24.57.68.8(56)
R6Fremantle3.16.29.610.9(69)lost toWestern Bulldogs3.78.912.1117.16(118)
R7Western Bulldogs3.27.310.614.10(94)dftdHawthorn3.37.67.99.11(65)
R8GWS Giants2.35.45.910.1171Lost toWestern Bulldogs4.17.411.613.886


For those of you who choose not to remember, this is Carlton’s season so far

RndHome Team Away Team
R1Richmond1.42.47.88.10(58)drewCarlton3.14.66.98.10(58)
R2Carlton2.66.812.1113.12(90)dftdGeelong2.15.69.612.10(82)
R3GWS Giants5.36.57.99.10(64)lost toCarlton4.67.117.169.20(74)
R4North Melbourne3.45.86.1211.18(84)lost toCarlton2.45.611.716.11(107)
R5Adelaide8.310.513.718.10(118)dftdCarlton2.15.47.79.8(62)
R6Carlton3.46.77.108.12(60)lost toSt Kilda3.26.311.712.10(82)
R7West Coast2.33.43.76.8(44)lost toCarlton5.69.814.1223.14(152)
R8Carlton5.16.36.511.874Lost toBrisbane Lions5.37.712.915.10100


And our last seven outings

SeasonRndHome Team Away Team Ground
2022R2Western Bulldogs4.17.311.513.12(90)lost toCarlton5.212.414.516.6(102)Marvel Stadium
2021R8Western Bulldogs4.36.610.816.11(107)dftdCarlton3.38.612.1013.13(91)Marvel Stadium
2020R6Carlton5.28.510.616.7(103)dftdWestern Bulldogs2.15.27.67.9(51)Metricon Stadium
2019R13Carlton2.16.310.915.10(100)lost toWestern Bulldogs5.29.611.915.13(103)Marvel Stadium
2019R5Western Bulldogs3.34.106.127.15(57)lost toCarlton5.38.511.615.11(101)Marvel Stadium
2018R22Carlton2.24.45.67.7(49)lost toWestern Bulldogs2.14.26.410.6(66)Etihad Stadium
2018R6Western Bulldogs4.57.89.1211.14(80)dftdCarlton3.14.36.68.11(59)Etihad Stadium


Remember the Rd 2 game last year? Voss Cerra and Martin absent due to Covid, McDonald went down early with his back again. Hansen coached, which was handy given his knowledge of the Dogs. We hung on for the win. Mids and forwards were the difference.

GOALS
Western Bulldogs:
Liberatore 2, Scott 2, Hannan 2, English, Ugle-Hagan, Treloar, Naughton, Dale, Weightman, Bontempelli
Carlton: Curnow 5, McKay 4, Cripps 2, Silvagni 2, Kennedy, Owies, Fisher

BEST
Western Bulldogs:
English, Macrae, Treloar, Liberatore, Bontempelli, Dunkley
Carlton: Cripps, Hewett, Curnow, McKay, Walsh, Kennedy, Fisher

Treloar and Dunkley missing from their midfield. That seems significant. Though Bont is in a purple patch and Libba still their heart and soul. Ugle-Hagan has come on a bit since last year. Our forward line, or at least Charlie and H provide the greatest threat to the Dogs. Their backline hasn’t been going great guns, and Carlton’s own Liam Jones is getting the best defender kudos on the Doggies board. Maybe we need Ed to sit on JJ for a while too. Limit their transition at speed. And its fortunate we keep Newy in the side. We need his leadership.

This is a winnable game but we’d have to see:

  • a team dedicated to applying pressure to Dogs all over the ground
  • players working hard to provide options for whoever has the ball
  • Mids getting it done at centre bounces and stoppages.
  • Forwards desperate to keep the ball in our half
  • Everyone with their kicking boots on – where the hell did they go?
  • Calm and mature decision making
Changes? Would rather none and put it on the team to respond. Maybe Owies or Fisher for Honey

Blues by 12 points

 
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Walsh 50% DE, Honey 37.5%. Most of the team were pretty good efficiency wise, on the stats sheet, not necessarily with the naked eye.

Hollands needs to up his efficiency a bit. Does so much right but his disposal is a bit shonky at times.
 

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This is no chance in one go but hopefully over the next few weeks....


Out: Hewett, Young, Honey
In: S Durdin, Cotters, Binns/Dow

Kennedy into the starting centre square midfield. * off this half back s**t for him.and no he's not a third tall forward either. CENTRE SQUARE MIDFIELDER.

Ed to sub. Don't give a * if the word is he's the only guy they think can do a lock down role. This negative game plan negative attitude negative defense first approach has killed the ball movement of the team.

Figure out at least 4 kick in set plays and then add one for going quickly.

Remember how to set up around a stoppage and spread.

Have your tall forwards playing in front and at least one a kick from play. Not both 100 metres away and playing behind.

Give Cripps and Walsh massive, separate, rockets. Walsh stop panicking and lower your goddamn eyes and Cripps don't you dare be the problem type rockets.
 
Kennedy into the starting centre square midfield. * off this half back s**t for him.and no he's not a third tall forward either. CENTRE SQUARE MIDFIELDER.

Kennedy should be our main extractor until Cripps gets his act together. He just can't handle any sort of a tag.
 
Will wait for the VFL, but if S Durdin was fit, I would bring him in against the Dogs

If Boyd and Cotts get through the game, have a reasonable outing then prefer both

Right now

Out Kemp, Honey

In Cowan, Cotts

Weitering, Cripps, Harry need to get their hands dirty

Kemp 14 disposals at 78% efficiency, 6 contested possessions. Showed plenty of pace to get back and help out. In his second game for the season, I'm not sure why he's the one you'd look at.

Is it because we can't have him and Newman in the same side?
 
I’d make a few changes, structural and personnel

Saad Weitering Kemp
Cincotta Young McGovern
Walsh Cripps Acres
Cottrell McKay Silvagni
Durdin Curnow Motlop
Pittonet Kennedy Cerra
Newman Docherty Dow Boyd (Hollands)

Walsh to a wing, think this will help our transition. Love him hunting the ball but we need him on the outside. Hollands can have a rest whilst still being amongst it.

Cottrell replaces Ed. Boyd replaces Honey and slots into the Fisher role. Get busy at half forward and use his pace and skills.

Give Dow a go. What do we have to lose. Hewett unlucky, he wasn’t exactly poor but we need a freshen up.
 
Kemp 14 disposals at 78% efficiency, 6 contested possessions. Showed plenty of pace to get back and help out. In his second game for the season, I'm not sure why he's the one you'd look at.

Is it because we can't have him and Newman in the same side?

IMHO, Kemp overcommitted in a number of contests, gave Gunston way too much room early on. Was slightly better 2nd half, but positioning was still poor, so was his handovers

Newman had a mare, same with Weitering
 
Kemp 14 disposals at 78% efficiency, 6 contested possessions. Showed plenty of pace to get back and help out. In his second game for the season, I'm not sure why he's the one you'd look at.

Is it because we can't have him and Newman in the same side?
Went to Cameron and beat him in the last quarter and a half too
 

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IMHO, Kemp overcommitted in a number of contests, gave Gunston way too much room early on. Was slightly better 2nd half, but positioning was still poor, so was his handovers

Newman had a mare, same with Weitering
Newman found it difficult to use his hands tonight. Kept trying to toe poke it. It’s strange what pressure does to a player who’s usually composed.
 
In: Kennedy, Cottrell

Out: Hollands (managed), Honey (omit)

B: Newman - Weitering - McGovern
HB: Docherty - Young - Cincotta
C: Walsh - Hewett - Acres
HF: Motlop - McKay - Saad
F: Durdin - Curnow - Silvagni
R: Pittonet - Cripps - Cerra
IC: Kemp - Kennedy - Cottrell - Curnow
Sub: Dow

E: De Koning - Hollands - Boyd

Will never happen but I'd love to see it.

If Boyd was ready to roll I'd drop Ed.

Re: Kemp

Can see why Arr0w is criticising him but I feel that with the s**t show that was the rest of our backline it was inevitable for a guy playing his second game for the year to also s**t the bed.

Most troubling is how poor our backline has been for large chunks of the season to date. In the past they've been our shining light. Even early in the year they were very good.
 
Hopefully Boyd hasn’t lost his kicking skills because we need a lot more of that plus dash

And Cottrell was a better user by the end of last season as well as dangerous when he drifted forward - plus he moves the ball along quick

We also need Owies who not only applies pressure but gets himself open for a goal or two per game

Ins: Boyd, Cottrell, Owies (if available)
Outs: Ed, Hollands, Honey





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Will wait for the VFL, but if S Durdin was fit, I would bring him in against the Dogs

If Boyd and Cotts get through the game, have a reasonable outing then prefer both

Right now

Out Kemp, Honey

In Cowan, Cotts

Weitering, Cripps, Harry need to get their hands dirty
Weitering needs a break … he is a liability at the moment … it’s obviously off field stuff but he needs a spell …
 
Weitering needs a break … he is a liability at the moment … it’s obviously off field stuff but he needs a spell …
He'll be tripping over his bottom lip now he has a sore elbow. Doesn't play well with any sort of niggle

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Not sure why Hewett would be dropped. Killed Neale in the first half/3 qtrs.

In: Owies, M.Kennedy
Out: Curnow, Honey

Only other one might be Boyd for Kemp but those stat lines not bad

Doc back and Cerra spending stints as the high half fwd. Walsh pure HHF

Cripps 80%
Hewett 80%
Kennedy 80%
Cerra 60%
Walsh 0% (High half fwd playing basically all game)

Not sure why we havnt seen this when this seem to work last year

Hewett to Bont
 
IMHO, Kemp overcommitted in a number of contests, gave Gunston way too much room early on. Was slightly better 2nd half, but positioning was still poor, so was his handovers

Newman had a mare, same with Weitering

I agree with this assessment about Kemp. He definitely overcommitted in a few contests and was giving away too much dangerous space but then again I don't think he's a natural defender as I've said in the past. He lacks that natural defensive craft. If we see him as a defender then there's definitely enough talent there to persist with, and as such, I wouldn't be dropping him. He's a beautiful mark. Personally, I'd prefer seeing him as the third tall forward.

If S. Durdin is fit I'd like to see him come in for Young. Young needs to go back and find some confidence and form. He strikes me very much as a confidence type player.
Honey out, I think most of us agree with that call. I really want him to succeed but he seems to lack game awareness and natural running patterns. So much talent though.
Cotters or Binns potentially in.
I think Newman unfortunately will get a match suspension (hopefully just a fine), which should pave the way for Boyd to come in.
Lets see how we go in the VFL first but I don't think need wholesale changes.
 
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