ACT ACT Election- Today

[Howard Littlejohn]

Not much discussion on here, not surprisingly as the ACT is not a footy heartland and the election has been the most negative and uninspiring I have seen since high school student council elections.

Both major parties went very heavily in the negative in terms of advertising.
ALP started with not be attacking Liberal promises, but by claiming that any promises the Liberals made would be broken. And followed up by the $300m that still has to be paid after tearing up the light rail stage 1 contract, as Libs intend.
The Libs have basically gone with axe the tram and that Labor will triple rates. The second one is what they lost the election with last time, but this time Labor haven't even bothered to either refute the suggestion or explain the changes and it should work for them this time as a result.
The Greens have been seen on corflutes (any party that proposed limiting corfultes would probably get a strong majority, people are really pissed off about this time) and in the streets, but little other advertising.

On issues, other than the light rail and the rates thing its basically been copycat.

The Libs promised a new hospital, ALP promised massive extensions.
Labor promised new nurse staffed walk in centres. Libs promised doctor staffed walk-in centres.
Every major nosrthside road seems to have had a promise made by one, and matched by the other.

On rates, they are increasing largely as a result of phasing out stamp duties. Its something most tax experts think all jurisdictions should be doing, to maintain a steadier income stream rather than relying on ever increasing housing turnover.
Its easier in the ACT without local councils. It is also very unlikely they will triple as a result of the changes.

The only interest will be the new electoral boundaries. The ACT has a Hare-Clark system, similar to Tasmania but only one House - the Legislative Assembly.
There are now five electorates of five members each. In the past there have been three electorates, two with five members and one with seven.

The only Green elected last election was elected 7th in the electorate of seven. Shane Rattenbury has a high profile now though and should hold on. Although, being part of the ministry may see some non-rusted on Green voters looking for a third force look to minor parties.
ALP lost Katy Gallagher to the Senate and that will work against them.
Libs lost Zed Seselja to the Senate and that will work for them.

Previous Assembly (2012 election)
Brindabella : most of the south, including Tuggeranong and roughly half of Woden
LIB 46.4%, ALP 35.7%, GRN 7.9%
LIB 3, ALP 2
Gininderra : in the north covering Belconnen and parts of the new Gungahlin region
ALP 39.9%, LIB 33.7%, GRN 10.1%
ALP 3, LIB 2
Molonglo : central, inner south, inner north, northern half of Woden
ALP 40.4%, LIB 37.4%, GRN 13.2%
ALP 3, LIB 3, GRN 1

ALP 8, LIB 8, GRN 1


2016 Guess - and it really is only a guess
Brindabella : Tuggeranong, minus Kambah, losing a share of Woden
LIB 3, ALP 2
ALP unlikely to gain ground with Joy Burch having hit serious issues during her time potentially damaging Labor.

Gininderra : Belconnen, except losing some of the eastern suburbs which have been combined with Gungahlin
LIB 3, ALP 2 - Labor's failure to re-explain rates could hurt them, along with an apartment glut that hasn't gone down well with some.
Surprise tip : Gordon Ramsay to poll well for the ALP, when voters treat the election as the joke the parties have done.

Kurrajong: Inner north and south, centre, and extending towards the NSW border in the south-east
LIB 2, ALP 2, GRN 1
Tempted to say ALP 3, GRN 1 on the strength of name recognition for Chief Minister Barr and Green Rattenbury, but that is unrealistic.

Murrumbidgee : Woden and Weston Creek areas
ALP 3, LIB 2
Moving CIT to Tuggeranong from Woden will hurt Labor, but Woden being named as stage 2 of light rail will probably help. Prior to that the only area in favour of light rail was Gungahlin, where stage one will go. Those who are getting it like it, the rest see it as a watse of money (until it arrives in their area).

Yerrabi : Gungahlin
LIB 3, ALP 2
So hard to judge, as the area is growing rapidly from not existing all that long ago. Rates could be a factor here, but it is the one area in big favour of light rail.

Really, just a guess : LIB 13, ALP 11, GRN 1 and so a change of government.
I actually find it hard to see, there's no mood for change. Just an exasperation about there being an election. I haven't seen a poll on it, but I suspect that support for self-government is probably as low as it has been since it became a reality.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

This really has slipped under the BigFooty radar. I knew it was happening but had forgotten all about it.

Antony Green's detailed preview http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/act-election-2016/guide/preview/

Election night coverage on ABC News 24 from 6pm AEDT and on ABC in the ACT.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

Old mate Jordie sums it up pretty well.

ALP has been in for 15 years, and the LNP's argument for being elected is basically "we won't build the tram, and um, rates will be lower!"

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

The other thing I should have mentioned is that about a third of votes were already cast, and those which were not postal votes will mostly have been electronic. As will some booths today, so a picture might emerge not long after 6:00 tonight.

Due to Hare-Clark, the fifth seat of each electorate will probably still be in doubt for quite a while; but at least in terms of likely party make-up (if not candidates) it should not take long to get some idea.

Also, its so much better not running the gauntlet of HTV cards. The sooner they are prohibited federally the better. (They are allowed, but not within a certain distance of polling stations for both ACT and Tas elections.)

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Don't you love local council elections

 

[Ice-Wolf]

ALP has been in for 15 years, and the LNP's argument for being elected is basically "we won't build the tram, and um, rates will be lower!"

What's the issue with the Tram?

 

[VineyIsLORD]

What's the issue with the Tram?

They're building a tram in Canberra.

Population is going up and public transport relies solely on a bus network at the moment.

Its going to cost money, but eventually expand to hit all major town centres within ACT as well as the airport.

Building it will cause some traffic delays (people here complain about traffic in a way I've never seen before, a 15 minute trip to work from the other side of town is considered terrible).

LNP don't really have any policies, but there is a general sense that 15 years is a long time for the ALP to be in power (even though they've been a fantastic government). The LNP are basically saying they will keep rates low (much like how they promised the lowest interest rates federally a few years back) and that they will tear up the contract for the tram. That's the only public point of difference, of course we know what happens when the LNP promise something during an election campaign.

It could go either way though, it was very tight last election. Plus the electorates have changed significantly from my understanding.

 

[Fire]

What are they promising to build instead of the tram?

Andrew's tore up the east west link, but is building the metro & western distributor. What will the liberals build instead of the tram?

 

[Maggie5]

T
Building it will cause some traffic delays (people here complain about traffic in a way I've never seen before, a 15 minute trip to work from the other side of town is considered terrible).

Reading of traffic jams, I recall years ago in Tassie I wanted to visit the Cadbury factory and the Tourist Office warned me about leaving early due to traffic.
So allowed plenty of time and I spent half an hour in the car park waiting for the shop to open.
They don't have any idea unless they have visited Vic or NSW.

 

[Mr Eagle]

going to cost money, but eventually expand to hit all major town centres within ACT as well as the airport.

And herein lies the problem...

The govt has basically costed and promoted the tram as just a Gungahlin-to-City line, and has done a lousy job of promoting the fact that the network may (will?) eventually cover all points of the map. There is ongoing angst, particularly down my way, about how much money is getting thrown at the Gungahlin area vs anywhere else, and this has done little to improve that mood.

Gungahlin also has the NBN, while everyone else has two cans and a piece of string

 

[VineyIsLORD]

And herein lies the problem...

The govt has basically costed and promoted the tram as just a Gungahlin-to-City line, and has done a lousy job of promoting the fact that the network may (will?) eventually cover all points of the map. There is ongoing angst, particularly down my way, about how much money is getting thrown at the Gungahlin area vs anywhere else, and this has done little to improve that mood.

Gungahlin also has the NBN, while everyone else has two cans and a piece of string

Reasonable point.

The promotion of just how much of a benefit the tram line will be has been very average. If it was sold as "hey this initial stage is 900m, and then we are going to look at expanding to tuggeranong, belconnen, airport etc. in stages - but it will happen, because Canberra is growing exponentially and it will ultimately reduce traffic" nobody is going to argue with that.

Likewise there has been little scrutiny of the LNP's "improved" bus plan. They want to can the Tram line (which ACT can only build after selling 400m of commercial and public land, in return for the then Abbott government's infrastructure funding) which costs 950m over 20 years, and replace it with more buses costing nearly 2 billion.

So basically Canberra sold off 400m in state assets to accesss these funds. They had it approved federally and have plans to build it (might have already started), and now the territory libs want to tear up the contract, and Turnbull has publicly slammed them for it and endorses the ALP's plan to go ahead with the Tram as the contracts have been signed.

Canberra is a strange place.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

What are they promising to build instead of the tram?

Andrew's tore up the east west link, but is building the metro & western distributor. What will the liberals build instead of the tram?

Both Lib and ALP are promising more rapid bus services between major "town" centres and more dedicated bus lanes. Libs promised first in place of light rail, Labor followed us promising it as well as light rail. Currently there are two basic high frequency lines.

Its ridiculous in a town of this size it takes 90 minutes to get from Gungahlin (new major residenatial area) to Tuggeranong (where DHS, one of the biggest employers are based) by public transport. And this with the express services.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

And herein lies the problem...

The govt has basically costed and promoted the tram as just a Gungahlin-to-City line, and has done a lousy job of promoting the fact that the network may (will?) eventually cover all points of the map. There is ongoing angst, particularly down my way, about how much money is getting thrown at the Gungahlin area vs anywhere else, and this has done little to improve that mood.

Gungahlin also has the NBN, while everyone else has two cans and a piece of string

I do love the way Gungahlin people whinge about not getting heard, despite getting everything while every other centre gets run into the ground.

Where is "down your way"? Tuggers?
Phase 2 is Civic-Woden. I would expect Civic-Belco to be 3, but that's not been announced.

 

[Mr Eagle]

Where is "down your way"? Tuggers?

Yep, not far south of the town centre. I would love to make use of public transport but right now it represents a doubling of my daily commute. Sorry, not happening.

(for our NSW and Vic readers... that's my horrible, awful 25 minute each way, park-outside-the-building-for-just-$12-a-day commute )

 

[Fire]

Yep, not far south of the town centre. I would love to make use of public transport but right now it represents a doubling of my daily commute. Sorry, not happening.

(for our NSW and Vic readers... that's my horrible, awful 25 minute each way, park-outside-the-building-for-just-$12-a-day commute )

You have no light or heavy rail, and the way it's growing it won't be long till it's worse than melb/Syd, even if it's a fraction of the size.

For a planned city, Canberra is pretty s**t.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

You have no light or heavy rail, and the way it's growing it won't be long till it's worse than melb/Syd, even if it's a fraction of the size.

For a planned city, Canberra is pretty s**t.

Planned everything except for the fact people would live there.

 

[Mr Eagle]

The very fast train will save us all.

(Even if does only get as close as Yass and we're just a branch line...)

 

[igon value]

Trams are horrible 19th century technology and a complete waste of money.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Trams are horrible 19th century technology and a complete waste of money.

Trams are an excellent form of public transport which is why so many cities are now rushing to replace the tram networks that they got rid off in the early parts of the 20th century and why Melbourne's extensive tram network is the envy of the world.

 

[igon value]

Trams are an excellent form of public transport which is why so many cities are now rushing to replace the tram networks that they got rid off in the early parts of the 20th century and why Melbourne's extensive tram network is the envy of the world.

Melbourne's public tram system is not the envy of any part of the world. That sounds like the kind of parochialism that only Melburnians indulge in.

The only good rail is heavy rail. Light rail is a poor compromise that has the magnitude of cost that heavy rail does, with all the down side of buses.

 

[Fire]

Melbourne's public tram system is not the envy of any part of the world. That sounds like the kind of parochialism that only Melburnians indulge in.

The only good rail is heavy rail. Light rail is a poor compromise that has the magnitude of cost that heavy rail does, with all the down side of buses.

You're detached from the world around you.

Cities all around the world, from Seattle to Jerusalem, are installing light rail where they can retrofit it. You can't have a city of any size rely sold on busses.

 

[igon value]

You're detached from the world around you.

Cities all around the world, from Seattle to Jerusalem, are installing light rail where they can retrofit it. You can't have a city of any size rely sold on busses.

Of course you can't. You need heavy rail. Light rail has no grade separation from the road, and has an enormous infrastructure cost.

The only rail worth building is heavy rail. Light rail is a bus on rails.

 

[DEVO]

Almost half of the vote has been counted and it looks like we will end up with 12 Labor, 12 Liberal and Rattenbury from the Greens, although a few are suggesting that the Libs may lose 1 seat to the Greens. Labor and Rattenbury have worked well together for the past 8 years which should mean Labor gets back in for another four years.

The interesting thing for me so far has been 3.3% of the votes going to the Sex Party. They are polling better than the Liberal Democrats. Still love our pr0n in Canberra.

 

[Fire]

Of course you can't. You need heavy rail. Light rail has no grade separation from the road, and has an enormous infrastructure cost.

The only rail worth building is heavy rail. Light rail is a bus on rails.

Light rail can have its own infrastructure or share the road. Heavy rail is great for longer distance travel so Canberra can look at that in the future when there's long distances to travel.

People prefer trams to busses; wherever a bus route is replaced by a tram, the patronage goes up. Which gets more people off the road.

 

[DEVO]

Of course you can't. You need heavy rail. Light rail has no grade separation from the road, and has an enormous infrastructure cost.

The only rail worth building is heavy rail. Light rail is a bus on rails.

Heavy rail is essential for cities greater than a million people, and Canberra is not going to get to that size anytime soon, if at all.
Light rail is great for us, it allows us to build high density corridors in and around the major centres (Northbourne Avenue, the City, and eventually Woden, Belconnen and Tuggeranong) which will help with population growth, and building a stronger and more robust economy. At least that is what the studies say about other cities that have built light rail networks.