SJ
Premium Platinum
AFL Premiership Round 8
Collingwood V Geelong
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Saturday May 18MCG 7:50 PM (Local Time)
GEELONG VS COLLINGWOODRound 8, Saturday May 18th, MCG
THE FORM LINE
Geelong has surprised most in the football world by being 7-0 and on top of the ladder, having just defeated the only other previously undefeated team in Essendon. The Cats have done this despite not excelling at the contested ball and having a weakened ruck division. Interestingly in most of the games we have been behind in the first half and then come home very strong in the second half. Collingwood's form has been more up and down, with wins over North Melbourne, Carlton and Richmond and St Kilda, while being belted by Hawthorn and Essendon, and losing to Freo in the West last week. That game described Collingwood's season well, a very slow start before storming back with six goals in the third quarter, but then after hitting the lead in the last being overrun and beaten.
MEDICAL ROOM
Both sides are quite depleted and are doing well to still notch up wins with what they have available. Collingwood's best side is currently missing Beams with a quad injury, Keefe with an ACL who is expected back mid season. Toovey recently injured his ACL and will miss the season, while Fasolo will do likewise with the dreaded navicular foot fracture. Dale Thomas, after starting the season late from ankle surgery, is troubled by it again and will miss this clash. Off season recruit Clinton Young from Hawthorn is yet to play because of hamstring and foot troubles, while Heath Shaw is suspended after earning a cheer from all in the world for hitting the little hobbit last week.
Geelong meanwhile is missing a similar number of players from it's best 22. Off season ruck recruit Hamish McIntosh has yet to play because of achilles and knee troubles, but is clearly in our best 22 when he can get fit. Fellow rucks Dawson Simpson and Nathan Vardy have been injured until the last couple of weeks, leaving Trent West and Mark Blicavs to carry the ruck load. Exciting forward Daniel Menzel will miss all of this season and probably next year as well after undergoing a fourth knee reconstruction, and will be missed. After a great first couple of games, Travis Varcoe injured his shoulder and will be unavailable until at least round 15 after surgery, robbing the best 22 of a lot of run and precision footskills. Important tagger Taylor Hunt will be sidelined until after the mid season bye after fracturing his clavicle last week. Defensive recruit from Melbourne Jared Rivers will miss a similar amount of time after having knee surgery following the Dogs game, leaving us thin for key defenders. Gun small forward Paul Chapman will miss this clash with a hamstring injury, while key midfielder James Kelly is suspended after his hit on Brendon Goddard last week.
KEY PLAYERS-GEELONG
STEVEN MOTLOP
Motlop has had a wonderful 18 months, really establishing himself in the 22. Like Johnno, he can frustrate with the sublime one minute, and then mucking up the next (see his goalkicking last week), but the improvement is clear, and his ability to run and carry and hit the scoreboard is crucial to us. Averaging 19 possessions a year, and having kicked 11 goals in 7 games, his influence on the game is much greater than it was last year, and he offers us a great deal of run and creativity between the arcs. Much as I have commented on Collingwood's midfield and it's strength, to me their obvious weakness is their ability to defend small forwards, amplified with Toovey gone for the year. Obrien, good as he is up the field, can easily be turned around in circles and exploited when dragged deep into defence, Shaw is suspended, Russell has done little since switching clubs and Clarke doesn't look great as an accountable small defender. So Motlop (and Stokes and Bundy when he rests forward) could really break the game open for us, providing his goalkicking is more accurate this week.
TRENT WEST
As he did last year, West has carried the ruck load amidst an injury crisis, and we should be thankful for his durability. I feel in recent weeks he has started to improve after a slow-ish start to the year. I have named him as a key player this week because as mentioned, this game will be won and lost in the midfield, so against a strong midfield like the Pies, we cannot afford to get slaughtered in the rucks. Fortunately Jolly is not in great form and is playing like a bloke in his final year, but it is crucial for us that Westy and Blicavs at the very least break even and allow our mids to halve the contest. I would also be instructing him to run forward at every opportunity and test the fact that Jolly struggles to cover the ground thesedays, since Westy is a good mark and kick for goal.
TOM LONERGAN
For all Collingwood's problems and issues this year, they can be thankful that one part of their forward line, Cloke, is still functioning quite well. Averaging 8.9 marks a game and already having kicked bags of 4 (twice), 5 and 7 goals this season, Cloke is performing extremely well given the at times haphasard delivery-they often bomb it on his head rather than to his advantage, when he has multiple defenders on him. So with better delivery, and a boot that can kick goals from 60, he could damage sides even more. Lonners has traditionally marked him in recent years and I expect this matchup again. The key for Lonners is to take front position and deny it it to Cloke, for once he has it he is very hard to shift. As always, it's a team job and our mids need to work hard to push back and block Cloke's space, but the job Lonners does will go a long way to winning us the game.
KEY PLAYERS-COLLINGWOODSCOTT PENDLEBURY
Is most definitely the Rolls Royce of the Collingwood midfield, and will be most happy to see Taylor Hunt, who would probably have tagged him, is not playing. Pendlebury will need close attention because apart from his ability to win the ball at stoppages, what sets him apart from many of his teammates is his ability to deliver it by foot with precision. When by contrast, I've seen a lot of Collingwood players simply bomb in hope to Cloke this year, Pendlebury has the ability to hit him on the lead with passes that defenders can't stop. It's always hard to stop him getting a lot of the ball, but we need to limit the time and space he has when he has it.
TRAVIS CLOKE
Has been in super form this year, which is a very meritorious effort given Collingwood are not going as well as last year and the supply to him is not as good. Having kicked 22 goals already this season, he has the capacity on any day to kick a bag and really rip a side open. The key with Cloke is his engine and workrate, and the ability to take contested marks, as he is very hard to shift once he has front position. We need Lonergan to play him from in front and play him well, but in particular we need to ensure our midfielders push back hard to clog the space and force him to have multiple opponents to deal with.
HARRY OBRIEN
Has been playing on the wing more this year, from what I have seen, but with no Toovey or Shaw, I would expect he, along with Russell, will be Collingwood's defacto small defenders. Has reasonable strength in the contest, and will need all of it against our battery of small forwards. I think the key with him is to run him in circles, he can have quite a large turning circle at times and if you keep repeat leading and then turn him around, you can do damge, and hopefully Motlop and Stokes can do just that.
HOW IT WILL BE PLAYED
Collingwood's inclusion of two rucks indicates they feel our ruck division is a weakness and they want to try and dominate us around the stoppages. The flip side of that coin is that it could expose them for run, especially since neither Jolly nor Witts is particularly mobile. Collingwood's strength is their midfield and I expect them to play to that, they will try to get a lot of numbers around the stoppages and win them. I would expect they will push their forwards up into the midfield to try and create a reasonably open forward line for Cloke and try and isolate him and whoever is defending him. Given our success in playing slingshot footy and their weakness against small forwards, they will probably also try and push back hard into defence when we have the ball to clog space. Geelong will focus on the same things that has worked for us so far; no doubt Scotty would like to see us get better at clearances and contested ball, but we will focus on turning the ball over when the opposition has the ball, and then scoring from that. We will place a lot of pressure on the ball carrier to limit their time to spot up a lead and thus force them to kick it long, which guys like Taylor and Enright eat up. I would expect us to try and isolate our small forwards given Collingwood's weakness in this area, and someone like Motlop will be used as an outlet wherever possible.
THE VERDICT
I know the Cats are raging favourites due to our unbeaten start and mainly Collingwood's inconsistent form, but I do not share the view that this win is a lay down misere. We still have weaknesses, mainly in our midfield and winning contested ball, and Kelly's absence will maginfy this. Collingwood have a very strong midfield, and the recent times they have beaten us, it has started there, so it will be a big job for a midfield minus Kelly and Hunt and Chapman to win the contest there, especially with an inexperienced ruck combination. I do feel we have the potency in the front half to score heavily, and providing Lonergan can limit Cloke's output, I am very confident in our defence vs their forwards. I expect Collingwood to be really fired up and given their good recent record against us, they cannot be discounted. I think Geelong will win, but only due to our strong second halves, and the game will be in the balance until the last 10 minutes.
Geelong by 17 points.