Prediction Bold Prediction 2018

[dockerfemme]

Yep. Wayne Jackson had the AFL moving in a good direction towards a true national comp but Demetriou turned it back around and set Gil up to continue his work. We were closer to a true national comp in 2004 than we are now.

Watch the push for an Essendon flag go into full swing this year. It'd be a marketing and PR bonanza.

I completely agree with you about Essendon. They have an easy draw. We will see how the umpires treat them.

 

[Purpletown]

Yep. Wayne Jackson had the AFL moving in a good direction towards a true national comp but Demetriou turned it back around and set Gil up to continue his work. We were closer to a true national comp in 2004 than we are now.

Watch the push for an Essendon flag go into full swing this year. It'd be a marketing and PR bonanza.

Great post.

Wayne Jackson was an outstanding CEO, Demetriou ran the AFL as his personal VFL fiefdom. Poor old Gil is even more foppish than Hugh Grant.

I am dreading the 2018 Essendon hype after all the Bulldogs and Richmond carry on over the past two finals series. Please let a non Victorian side win the flag this year.

 

[Clems Knee]

I completely agree with you about Essendon. They have an easy draw. We will see how the umpires treat them.

We have a new umpiring coach this year I believe.
I wonder if the standard of umpiring will improve.

 

[Scham]

We have a new umpiring coach this year I believe.
I wonder if the standard of umpiring will improve.

Pretty sure Hayden Kennedy is going around again in 2018 as the coach.

The AFL are looking for a Head Of Umpiring though to replace Peter Schwab.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

Yep. Wayne Jackson had the AFL moving in a good direction towards a true national comp but Demetriou turned it back around and set Gil up to continue his work. We were closer to a true national comp in 2004 than we are now.

Watch the push for an Essendon flag go into full swing this year. It'd be a marketing and PR bonanza.

That is precisely what happened when AD demanded the AA selection committee delete Nat Fyfe and insert Jobe Watson.

 

[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

Andrew Demetriou would have loved you on his propaganda team. Your talents are wasted on BF.

There's a myriad of factors that impact the outcome of the season and finals from a fixturing point of view, playing the GF at the MCG would be last on that list.

Take playing an away prelim there the week before, for example. Is it a disadvantage because you're playing away, or an advantage because you get a dummy run, under finals conditions, the week before the real deal?

Playing the GF at the MCG didn't stop WC, Adelaide, Brisbane and Sydney from all beating Vic teams on GF day either.

Old mate is a whinging, excuse making, defeatist sook. If things like that are going to beat you, then you never had a chance from the get go.

And yeah, I'm a man before my time on here, but supporting Freo is my ugly, 2 headed cripple baby.




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[Joao]

There's a myriad of factors that impact the outcome of the season and finals from a fixturing point of view, playing the GF at the MCG would be last on that list.

Take playing an away prelim there the week before, for example. Is it a disadvantage because you're playing away, or an advantage because you get a dummy run, under finals conditions, the week before the real deal?

Playing the GF at the MCG didn't stop WC, Adelaide, Brisbane and Sydney from all beating Vic teams on GF day either.

Old mate is a whinging, excuse making, defeatist sook. If things like that are going to beat you, then you never had a chance from the get go.

And yeah, I'm a man before my time on here, but supporting Freo is my ugly, 2 headed cripple baby.




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I am with Muffin in principle here.

If you are good enough you will find a way.

 

[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

I mean even just rewording the argument to winning the GF as the away team (since nationalising the competition) you get WC on 3/6?, Port at 1/2, Adelaide 2/3?, Sydney 2/6? and Brisbane 3/4.

Those numbers are probably not bang on, but that's over 50% and close enough to it when allowing for errors.

It just shows what a bullshit argument it is.

 

[Del183359]

I mean even just rewording the argument to winning the GF as the away team (since nationalising the competition) you get WC on 3/6?, Port at 1/2, Adelaide 2/3?, Sydney 2/6? and Brisbane 3/4.

Those numbers are probably not bang on, but that's over 50% and close enough to it when allowing for errors.

It just shows what a bullshit argument it is.

So the next GF we make we should win on probability according to the stats?

 

[Crippa]

There's a myriad of factors that impact the outcome of the season and finals from a fixturing point of view

You cannot both concede that extraneous factors such as fixturing can affect the outcome of matches (and by extension the season), and hold that "the better team wins 100% of matches at home, or away". Only a Demetriou apologist could come up with a slogan like that, as though fixturing (among other things) is never manipulated by the AFL to maximize the chances that the outcome they desire will be achieved.

 

[salim malik]

Malthouse stated that the WA clubs because of travel and finals fixturing needed to be at least 10% better in all aspects of the game than the East coast sides.
Travel is a factor especially the trip home if the players are carrying niggles or injuries. Anyone who says travelling to the minor finals then back for the GF does not impact the chances of the travelling side are kidding them selves.

 

[Wally Walpamur]

Travel does affect the WA clubs but it also gives us a home ground advantage in the regular season. I just wish the AFL would listen to the CEO’s when they request less six day breaks after travelling. That we might have to travel in a final is a result of having a higher number of Vic based clubs compared to two WA clubs.

I can see the grand final being played at a ground other than the MCG in the next 10 years though.

 

[yyou]

Malthouse stated that the WA clubs because of travel and finals fixturing needed to be at least 10% better in all aspects of the game than the East coast sides.
Travel is a factor especially the trip home if the players are carrying niggles or injuries. Anyone who says travelling to the minor finals then back for the GF does not impact the chances of the travelling side are kidding them selves.

Mick Outhouse is notorious sook with an excuse for everything
Travel IS a factor, but to use his bleating as vindication is inconsequential

 

[youmewe]

...
I can see the grand final being played at a ground other than the MCG in the next 10 years though.

Sorry Wally, it's time you called Specsavers.



The AFL contract doesn't expire until 2037.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport...d/news-story/694b076fc7db994248c4f209c6586d71
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2017/09/28/grand-final-could-be-moved-from-mcg-says-mcc-chief/

 

[salim malik]

Mick Outhouse is notorious sook with an excuse for everything
Travel IS a factor, but to use his bleating as vindication is inconsequential

I think Malthouse would know a hell of lot more about the travel component influencing WA sides than you or the rest of us on here. Love him or loath him he is one of only 2 coaches of WA sides to win the cup.

 

[SHill Shall]

I mean even just rewording the argument to winning the GF as the away team (since nationalising the competition) you get WC on 3/6?, Port at 1/2, Adelaide 2/3?, Sydney 2/6? and Brisbane 3/4.

Those numbers are probably not bang on, but that's over 50% and close enough to it when allowing for errors.

It just shows what a bullshit argument it is.

Do you believe there’s a genuine home and away adavantage (when playing out of state) in the round robin?

 

[Joao]

Malthouse stated that the WA clubs because of travel and finals fixturing needed to be at least 10% better in all aspects of the game than the East coast sides.
Travel is a factor especially the trip home if the players are carrying niggles or injuries. Anyone who says travelling to the minor finals then back for the GF does not impact the chances of the travelling side are kidding them selves.

It definitely matters, but if you are good enough you can overcome it.

I think finishing top 2 is most important for WA sides for this very reason. Limit that travel in finals.

 

[salim malik]

It definitely matters, but if you are good enough you can overcome it.

I think finishing top 2 is most important for WA sides for this very reason. Limit that travel in finals.

The WA sides have to overcome the travel the East coast sides don't have that problem. The East coasters don't have the need to have to finish top 2.

 

[Joao]

The WA sides have to overcome the travel the East coast sides don't have that problem. The East coasters don't have the need to have to finish top 2.

This is true but as someone pointed out, we also have the best home advantage.

The competition isn't fair, everyone knows it but there is nothing much that can be done about most of it (without radical change).

The simple fact is, if we are good enough, we can win. That is enough for me.

 

[Scham]

The amount and frequency of travel combined with short breaks blunts the home ground advantage imo.

 

[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

You cannot both concede that extraneous factors such as fixturing can affect the outcome of matches (and by extension the season), and hold that "the better team wins 100% of matches at home, or away". Only a Demetriou apologist could come up with a slogan like that, as though fixturing (among other things) is never manipulated by the AFL to maximize the chances that the outcome they desire will be achieved.

Of course I can. Impacting the game doesn't equal changing the result.

Only a tin foil hat wearing, small man conspiracist would argue the AFL actively participates in match fixing in order to prevent non Victorian teams from winning the flag.



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[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

Do you believe there’s a genuine home and away adavantage (when playing out of state) in the round robin?

Round robin?

There's a home ground advantage for all clubs. Trying to claim an AFL conspiracy when we have arguably the strongest home ground advantage in the competition is arse hattery.

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[mike91]

Round robin?

There's a home ground advantage for all clubs. Trying to claim an AFL conspiracy when we have arguably the strongest home ground advantage in the competition is arse hattery.

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Arguably the strongest? No different to the SA teams really. I'd say Geelong have the greatest advantage.

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[Marty Whitelaw]

I agree the system is stacked against interstate teams but nothing will be changing anytime soon.

The AFL Commission loved Demetriou because he delivered big bucks and a massive TV rights deal. Look who’s on the Commission and it’s pretty clear what their measure of success is.

 

[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

Arguably the strongest? No different to the SA teams really. I'd say Geelong have the greatest advantage.

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I would have thought that we obviously have a stronger advantage because of the increased distance and very different shaoed ground than the other teams.

But yes, you're reinforcing my argument for me. Home ground advantage is such an ethereal thing. How do you attribute value to something so vague?

Is our advantage bigger than Adelaide because we have the biggest travel time? Do Adelaide have a bigger advantage because they split the diffsrence between East/West? Is our advantage bigger than Vic teams which share their ground between 10 teams? Is our advantage bigger during finals giving the increased likelihood of us finishing top 6 due to our 'increased advantage' etc.

The entire argument is stupid.

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