Preview Changes: R5 2021 vs Fremantle

[Southerntakeover]

I'm judging on what I saw today... which was nothing whatsoever, if the ball wasn't being delivered lace out, silver service. No forward is going to survive in the game if they are as reliant on perfect delivery as Fogarty is.

Can anyone else hear circus music?

 

[ams4crows]

Lynch has to go, he can be a leader off the field, for every one good pass he burns 3 others. Just give him a rest for 2 weeks

Would love to see Worrall in but Nicks presser seems to suggest he's happy with the back 6

 

[FR0GGY]

it’s got to be Thilthorpe in Frampton out.
Thilthorpe could stand in the square and put his hands up as long as he can mark he offers more than Frampton.
Forget the earn it bullshit, billy ain’t earning it at the moment.
How else with Thilthorpe know what level he needs to be at if he doesn’t play?

 

[pjcrows]

Frampton out for Berg or Thilthorpe.

I'd be swapping Hamill for Worrell this week too, and then Berry for Pedlar the week after, just for a break.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Just absolutely gift wrapped by the midfield. All them.

 

[Sanders]

Never go full Vader.

This should be a thing. My new favourite quote

 

[Dewy006]

Will be interesting to see if we opt for another Key Back due to the matchup, Freo seem to be playing Darcy forward quite a bit. You’d think Butts would take Taberner, having to play Doedee on a resting ruckman seems a waste of his ability to intercept and rebound.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Just handed to him.

 

[spenze]

People need to calm down on Pedlar, he needs a good block of games in the SANFL so he can get match fit before he comes in to the AFL side. He's a special talent no doubt but he was out on his feet half way through the third yesterday

 

[FR0GGY]

Just handed to him.

View attachment 1100161

There's a place for lead up forwards. It's just that Fogarty isn't quick enough to play that role. To put it bluntly, there doesn't appear to be any position in the forward line which suits Fog.

 

[FR0GGY]

People need to calm down on Pedlar, he needs a good block of games in the SANFL so he can get match fit before he comes in to the AFL side. He's a special talent no doubt but he was out on his feet half way through the third yesterday

What would you expect him to be out on yesterday if not his feet?

 

[Miss Vanessa]

While I acknowledge that Kelly had a couple of howlers in quick succession today, I’m going to go into bat for him... prepare to have your minds blown. This year, of our back six players, not only has Kelly been the best user of the ball, it’s actually not even close. Average stats per game for ball use this year for our back six are as follows:

Kelly: 14.3 touches, 1.7 turnovers. 1 every 8.4 touches. Disposal efficiency 91% for 206m gained and 2.7 score involvements.

Brown: 11 touches, 2 turnovers. 1 every 5.5 touches. Disposal efficiency 79% for 180m gained and 2.7 score involvements.

Butts: 9.3 touches, 2 turnovers. 1 every 4.7 touches. Disposal efficiency 78% for 141m gained and 1.3 score involvements.

Hamill: 10.3 touches, 1.8 turnovers. 1 every 5.7 touches. Disposal efficiency 76% for 148m gained and 1.8 score involvements.

Doedee: 21 touches, 4.2 turnovers. 1 every 4.2 touches. Disposal efficiency 76% for 403m gained and 2.8 score involvements.

McPherson: 13.3 touches, 3.3 turnovers. 1 every 4 touches. Disposal efficiency 72% for 240m gained and 1.3 score involvements.

He’s an unfashionable footballer, but he’s a very solid defender who is as hard as any player we have. He’s actually provided a fair bit of drive from our backline so far this year... and while it’s an admittedly small sample size, from his 3 games this year he is comfortably our best ball user back there so far... I wasn’t expecting the stats to show that but there you go...

 

[spexau]

While I acknowledge that Kelly had a couple of howlers in quick succession today, I’m going to go into bat for him... prepare to have your minds blown. This year, of our back six players, not only has Kelly been the best user of the ball, it’s actually not even close. Average stats per game for ball use this year for our back six are as follows:

Kelly: 14.3 touches, 1.7 turnovers. 1 every 8.4 touches. Disposal efficiency 91% for 206m gained and 2.7 score involvements.

Brown: 11 touches, 2 turnovers. 1 every 5.5 touches. Disposal efficiency 79% for 1 gained and 2.7 score involvements.

Butts: 9.3 touches, 2 turnovers. 1 every 4.7 touches. Disposal efficiency 78% for 141m gained and 1.3 score involvements.

Hamill: 10.3 touches, 1.8 turnovers. 1 every 5.7 touches. Disposal efficiency 76% for 148m gained and 1.8 score involvements.

Doedee: 21 touches, 4.2 turnovers. 1 every 4.2 touches. Disposal efficiency 76% for 403m gained and 2.8 score involvements.

McPherson: 13.3 touches, 3.3 turnovers. 1 every 4 touches. Disposal efficiency 72% for 240m gained and 1.3 score involvements.

He’s an unfashionable footballer, but he’s a very solid defender who is as hard as any player we have. He’s actually provided a fair bit of drive from our backline so far this year... and while it’s an admittedly small sample size, from his 3 games this year he is comfortably our best ball user back there so far... I wasn’t expecting the stats to show that but there you go...

Generally speaking, Kelly doesn't bite off more than he can chew, which is why his DE% is quite high. He has been taking riskier options this year so far and his disposal, while awkward looking, is effective. He's been great defensively and helping the younger guys stick to task. Plays above his weight and does his job. People calling for his omission are barking up the wrong tree.

 

[dogs105]

Kelly very good last week, and better this year overall. Too soon to drop him

 

[Deaneus!]

It's also the club record for most goals in the home and away season kicked by Modra in 1993.........And didnt even win the coleman as Ablett kicked 124

#ModraKnew

I'm judging on what I saw today... which was nothing whatsoever, if the ball wasn't being delivered lace out, silver service. No forward is going to survive in the game if they are as reliant on perfect delivery as Fogarty is.

I will have to go back and watch his marks, but you can’t deny they were tricky shots and he nailed them

I think 95% of us would agree that...

Out: Frampton
In: Thilthorpe

Would be a fun and welcome change this week. Frampton has been literally in our worst 3 players for 3 weeks in a row now, and Thilthorpe replacing Billy for his debut game, on our home deck, against an opponent that isn’t a powerhouse, makes a lot of sense.

Beyond that glaringly obvious change, it will be interesting to see what we do.

Hamill seemingly goes to the dressing room with some form of injury every game. Is it time to give him a week off to lick his wounds and freshen up? Does Worrell replace him, or would Worrell be a more suitable replacement for Kelly? Would we consider dropping Kelly, who was poor against North (in fairness, he was excellent against Gold Coast)? Is there some sort of sneaky chance of D-Mac finding his way back into the 22 as a Hamill replacement? Would BigFooty melt if this happened?

Lynch, Fog, Walker and whoever the tallest forward is probably can’t all co-exist moving forward - the ball was coming out of our F50 far too easily today, and that was against the indisputably worst defence in the AFL. Do we give Lynch a week off to get his toe back to 100% and replace him with more of a “true mid” due to Sloane’s absence? Did Fog do enough to hold his spot? Can everyone accept now that Fog is not and will never be an AFL midfielder (he spent time in the midfield and literally didn’t touch the ball once while in there)? Is Hately the only logical Sloane replacement at present?

Does one of McHenry, Berry or Rowe need a spell? Who would replace them? Is Pedlar ready to go or does he need another week or two in the SANFL?


I think all of the above adds up to 1 or 2 changes this week only.

(If Lynch is deemed to still be labouring with his toe injury)
Out: Frampton, Lynch (managed)
In: Thilthorpe, Hately

(If Lynch is deemed 100%, but Hamill is struggling with a variety of ailments)
Out: Frampton, Hamill (managed)
In: Thilthorpe, Mackay

(If Lynch and Hamill are both deemed 100%, and no other hidden injuries rear their ugly heads)
Out: Frampton
In: Thilthorpe


Worrell probably needs Kelly to play another poor game against Freo to break in, because Seedsman has really nailed down a spot now, and the likes of Doedee, Brown, Smith, Butts and McPherson aren’t going anywhere either. Worrell will not be played up forward. It is possible that Worrell replaces Hamill in scenario 2 above, but you just know how much the coaches will love D-Mac being a “like-for-like” replacement for Hamill, even though they’re actually nothing alike.


To be honest, as long as Thilthorpe replaces Frampton, and any other changes don’t result in us getting slower, I’ll be fine with it. I personally don’t believe Fog and Lynch should be playing in the same side moving forward, so I would prefer the first scenario tbh.

I’m very excited about Pedlar and Worrell hopefully breaking into the side soon for debuts (Worrell looks on track for Round 6, Pedlar for Round 7-8), which will put a lot of pressure on all of Kelly, Lynch, Fogarty, Rowe, McHenry and Berry to either perform or be replaced.

McHenry and Rowe in particular would be looking over their shoulders, because Pedlar is inevitably taking one of their spots in the next month unless injury either strikes Pedlar, or another player in the current senior 22.

Excellent post.

My preferred:

Frampton out
Fog takes his spot
Worrell takes Fog’s spot and Lynch is rested *unless* Hamill needs a rest, then Worrell subs in for a Hamill rest and we bring in a mid with speed, I’d still look at Jones to take over from Lynch

Noy sure how to shoehorn Thrillthorpe into the team yet

 

[Footypie32]

Out: Frampton

In: Not that fussed whether we go like for like or bring in a smaller player.

 

[Deaneus!]

While I acknowledge that Kelly had a couple of howlers in quick succession today, I’m going to go into bat for him... prepare to have your minds blown. This year, of our back six players, not only has Kelly been the best user of the ball, it’s actually not even close. Average stats per game for ball use this year for our back six are as follows:

Kelly: 14.3 touches, 1.7 turnovers. 1 every 8.4 touches. Disposal efficiency 91% for 206m gained and 2.7 score involvements.

Brown: 11 touches, 2 turnovers. 1 every 5.5 touches. Disposal efficiency 79% for 1 gained and 2.7 score involvements.

Butts: 9.3 touches, 2 turnovers. 1 every 4.7 touches. Disposal efficiency 78% for 141m gained and 1.3 score involvements.

Hamill: 10.3 touches, 1.8 turnovers. 1 every 5.7 touches. Disposal efficiency 76% for 148m gained and 1.8 score involvements.

Doedee: 21 touches, 4.2 turnovers. 1 every 4.2 touches. Disposal efficiency 76% for 403m gained and 2.8 score involvements.

McPherson: 13.3 touches, 3.3 turnovers. 1 every 4 touches. Disposal efficiency 72% for 240m gained and 1.3 score involvements.

He’s an unfashionable footballer, but he’s a very solid defender who is as hard as any player we have. He’s actually provided a fair bit of drive from our backline so far this year... and while it’s an admittedly small sample size, from his 3 games this year he is comfortably our best ball user back there so far... I wasn’t expecting the stats to show that but there you go...

See, this and huludicidal ’s post are the reason I come to BF, thoughtful statements with solid reasoning that engage the mind.

Then i post stupid memes, but I come here to read that

 

[MrBarry]

Just handed to him.

View attachment 1100161

Now that I've seen how easy these shots at goal are, I've decided I'm with Vader. Anyone we bring into the team can slot these with ease, Mackay would likely nail that one as well...

 

[Miss Vanessa]

See, this and huludicidal ’s post are the reason I come to BF, thoughtful statements with solid reasoning that engage the mind.

Then i post stupid memes, but I come here to read that

Well that works out fine coz mostly I come here to see stupid memes...

 

[Dewy006]

#ModraKnew



I will have to go back and watch his marks, but you can’t deny they were tricky shots and he nailed them



Excellent post.

My preferred:

Frampton out
Fog takes his spot
Worrell takes Fog’s spot and Lynch is rested *unless* Hamill needs a rest, then Worrell subs in for a Hamill rest and we bring in a mid with speed, I’d still look at Jones to take over from Lynch

Noy sure how to shoehorn Thrillthorpe into the team yet

And then who spells ROB in the ruck? We aren’t sending Walker in there, like it or not, one of Frampton or Berg will always play (Til TT is ready)

 

[Southerntakeover]

The funny / sad thing is that the supposedly easy, no skill involved, thing that Fogarty did this game is exactly what we could never get Jenkins to do, and which would have made him a really good player- lead at the ball carrier with your arms up, catch and convert. Thinking that understanding and timing leads does not involve craft, skill or football nous is the opinion of a numpty. It is the skill of a forward, and it's so valuable because its capable of being replicated. It's a systematic pathway to goal. This is exactly what professional sports teams want- the path way to scoring that you could do again and again.

What makes Fogarty intriguing in this regard, and what should make him valuable to us (if the club is capable of assessing and using it) is that he has a scoring range far greater than the average forward. Vader, as is his wont, completely misses the point. 'Good teams' won't defend the areas Fog scored from with more effort, because it's incredibly hard to stop lead up play if its executed properly. The best method is to get people in to plug the gaps. But look at where Fog scored from. Teams are not going to dedicate extra bodies to guarding the flanks and boundary line. Why? Because that leaves the ******* corridor for 1 on 1 match ups. If they were foolish enough to do it, you'd just take it to the bank. This is how you create space. Its a space on the ground that you absolutely can create scoring shots in.

It's the equivalent of having good three point shooters in basketball, or a burner wide out in the NFL. The skill set dramatically changes how teams can defend, and where you can zone. This is what modern sports are about: finding players with skills that counter how defence can be played.

Why do most teams not do it? It's really hard to get guys who are reliable shots from that range / angle. If you're getting people who can only convert occasionally from out there then it is lower percentage than the bomb to the square. It's rare to get guys you can bank on there. And we're lucky enough right now to have two.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Now that I've seen how easy these shots at goal are, I've decided I'm with Vader. Anyone we bring into the team can slot these with ease, Mackay would likely nail that one as well...

Can you imagine the gall of blaming fogarty for receiving goals in a game where he literally had a fourth ripped from him by team mates stuffing up?

 

[Scorpus]

Why? Did you see the ease at which North exited the F50 today? Now imagine that’s an actual competent team with good setups behind the ball and damaging half backs. The speed at which teams will rebound with a Fog, Walker, Frilthorpeberg forward setup will give you whiplash.

We had way more trouble with rebound from defense against Sydney and in that game Fogarty wasn't playing

I had a look at the stats and there was no drop in ground level work and pressure from our forward group against North versus other teams this year. North also had relatively few score launches from defense.

Our issue with North exiting defense were our entries that basically gave them the ball directly under no pressure. Those entries are impossible to defend regardless of who is in your forward line.

 

[Coopers]

The funny / sad thing is that the supposedly easy, no skill involved, thing that Fogarty did this game is exactly what we could never get Jenkins to do, and which would have made him a really good player- lead at the ball carrier with your arms up, catch and convert. Thinking that understanding and timing leads does not involve craft, skill or football nous is the opinion of a numpty. It is the skill of a forward, and it's so valuable because its capable of being replicated. It's a systematic pathway to goal. This is exactly what professional sports teams want- the path way to scoring that you could do again and again.

What makes Fogarty intriguing in this regard, and what should make him valuable to us (if the club is capable of assessing and using it) is that he has a scoring range far greater than the average forward. Vader, as is his wont, completely misses the point. 'Good teams' won't defend the areas Fog scored from with more effort, because it's incredibly hard to stop lead up play if its executed properly. The best method is to get people in to plug the gaps. But look at where Fog scored from. Teams are not going to dedicate extra bodies to guarding the flanks and boundary line. Why? Because that leaves the ******* corridor for 1 on 1 match ups. If they were foolish enough to do it, you'd just take it to the bank. This is how you create space. Its a space on the ground that you absolutely can create scoring shots in.

It's the equivalent of having good three point shooters in basketball, or a burner wide out in the NFL. The skill set dramatically changes how teams can defend, and where you can zone. This is what modern sports are about: finding players with skills that counter how defence can be played.

Why do most teams not do it? It's really hard to get guys who are reliable shots from that range / angle. If you're getting people who can only convert occasionally from out there then it is lower percentage than the bomb to the square. It's rare to get guys you can bank on there. And we're lucky enough right now to have two.

Imagine if he could lay a tackle and get involved in general play too.
North players just stepped around him a lot.
The very good, and the very bad.

 

[Coopers]

We had way more trouble with rebound from defense against Sydney and in that game Fogarty wasn't playing

I had a look at the stats and there was no drop in ground level work and pressure from our forward group against North versus other teams this year. North also had relatively few score launches from defense.

Our issue with North exiting defense were our entries that basically gave them the ball directly under no pressure. Those entries are impossible to defend regardless of who is in your forward line.

I think the issue with Sydney was that they don't suck at football.
North ran the ball out with ease and then found ways to stuff up their forward entry - and we got the ball back and did the same.
Against not-north we'd be 5 goals down at 3/4 time. Can't really have a 2nd and 3rd like that, we were not really made to pay.