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Prediction Changes: Round 13 Vs Richmond + prematch discussion

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We all know that Brodie is behind Ras now right? Like, that’s a proven thing based on the latest selections.

I don’t think I can get behind Reidy. Jackson is going to take Darcy’s role (because he’s 50x the ruck Reidy is at the moment) so would you bring in Reidy to play 30% ruck or just have Treacy play in what’s actually his best position (fwd/ruck). So we actually need to replace Treacy’s current role which is going to be either Walters in and Sturt playing taller or Kuek/Corbett.

I’d love to unleash the Kueken if Walters doesn’t get up personally and just use the game as an excuse to give JOM a rest and play Ras
 

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Will be interesting to see how the team react as short-price favourites after a few weeks of being the Hunter.
This game we are going to be the hunted. Against a bottom 4 side at home, the media and broader fanbase will be disappointed with anything less than a 30 point win.
It would be lovely if we could play every game in the mindset of the last 3 (wins are more enjoyable too) but that’s unfortunately not possible. as you get good, you need to grind out expected wins with no fuss.
We are back to the second half of last season now in terms of expectations.
 
On the Sturt discussion. Here is a photo I took of my TV (sorry for quality) during First Crack. Sturt is open on the far left (and no Melbourne players off screen) but Fyfe fluffed the chain with his handball. Was also similarly free when JOM was streaming through the corridor to the right of screen and chipped it straight (understandable to go forward rather than sideways).

If he is holding his position and width to spread the field, that might be all that is being asked of him. And it might make it harder to get involved if we are moving through the middle.

Wouldn't take too much for him to get a goal/assist or two with his positioning, and the perception of his game could easily change.

IMG_20230529_071832.jpg
 
On the Sturt discussion. Here is a photo I took of my TV (sorry for quality) during First Crack. Sturt is open on the far left (and no Melbourne players off screen) but Fyfe fluffed the chain with his handball. Was also similarly free when JOM was streaming through the corridor to the right of screen and chipped it straight (understandable to go forward rather than sideways).

If he is holding his position and width to spread the field, that might be all that is being asked of him. And it might make it harder to get involved if we are moving through the middle.

Wouldn't take too much for him to get a goal/assist or two with his positioning, and the perception of his game could easily change.

View attachment 1699497
I noticed that last night too watching first crack. At the game I thought Sturt was ok and tackled hard and was more involved than he has been in previous games. However it’s striking how slight and scrawny he is after 5 years in the system. His shoulders and general body shape are of a skinny long distance runner that’s tried to bulk up in the gym but just can’t.
I don’t think he has the physical power for this game.
 
On the Sturt discussion. Here is a photo I took of my TV (sorry for quality) during First Crack. Sturt is open on the far left (and no Melbourne players off screen) but Fyfe fluffed the chain with his handball. Was also similarly free when JOM was streaming through the corridor to the right of screen and chipped it straight (understandable to go forward rather than sideways).

If he is holding his position and width to spread the field, that might be all that is being asked of him. And it might make it harder to get involved if we are moving through the middle.

Wouldn't take too much for him to get a goal/assist or two with his positioning, and the perception of his game could easily change.

View attachment 1699497

The way we play means that the small forwards can play their roles perfectly and still not get the stats in any game. We don't focus our attack on any one player like the way Brisbane have in the past with Cameron. Also probably why JL is constantly on about icecream.
 
I noticed that last night too watching first crack. At the game I thought Sturt was ok and tackled hard and was more involved than he has been in previous games. However it’s striking how slight and scrawny he is after 5 years in the system. His shoulders and general body shape are of a skinny long distance runner that’s tried to bulk up in the gym but just can’t.
I don’t think he has the physical power for this game.
This is a seriously bad take, we literally just played Melbourne whom have a similarly wide but shorter player who has kicked 6 in a grand final. Plus picket who would be lucky to weight 60kgs.

Does he have the ability? Maybe, maybe not. Is he too skinny? That's a dumb question.
 

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I noticed that last night too watching first crack. At the game I thought Sturt was ok and tackled hard and was more involved than he has been in previous games. However it’s striking how slight and scrawny he is after 5 years in the system. His shoulders and general body shape are of a skinny long distance runner that’s tried to bulk up in the gym but just can’t.
I don’t think he has the physical power for this game.

Fritsch has a similar body type and is one of the most effective medium forwards in the game. Sturt would also easily have him covered for power in terms of speed and leap. If we play 3 x tall forwards (like we have been), then Sturt doesn't need KPP strength.

At this point he would be playing as cover for injuries to our small forwards, and with his extra height he would easily have Freddy, Walters and Switta covered for strength. Maybe not Schultz with his muscly frame (but it would be close with the extra leverage that longer limbs provide). Ability wise is different, but it is not his raw power holding him back.

Regardless, I seem to remember him out bodying Hurley in that game years ago (when he was even skinnier) when he played his best game. Even yesterday he was able to stand up in a strong tackle and get a handball to Treacy (when he sprayed a snap that Schultz marked on the boundary line).
 
This is a seriously bad take, we literally just played Melbourne whom have a similarly wide but shorter player who has kicked 6 in a grand final. Plus picket who would be lucky to weight 60kgs.

Does he have the ability? Maybe, maybe not. Is he too skinny? That's a dumb question.
You seriously aren’t comparing Pickett and Sturt in the physical stakes? I mean, kozzie Pickett is a human meatball, one of the most physically powerful players in the AFL! It’s like having a 170cm ball of flying concrete running around the place. Some of the hits he puts in make me wince on the sofa watching them. Probably the hardest small forward matchup in the AFL right now and he bullied Walker on Saturday in nearly every 50/50 contest.
Also if you are talking about Fritsch - he’s much more strongly built than Sturt with greater core strength. Despite being a couple of cm shorter I reckon he has at least 5 or 6 kg of extra muscle on Sturt.
 
On the Sturt discussion. Here is a photo I took of my TV (sorry for quality) during First Crack. Sturt is open on the far left (and no Melbourne players off screen) but Fyfe fluffed the chain with his handball. Was also similarly free when JOM was streaming through the corridor to the right of screen and chipped it straight (understandable to go forward rather than sideways).

If he is holding his position and width to spread the field, that might be all that is being asked of him. And it might make it harder to get involved if we are moving through the middle.

Wouldn't take too much for him to get a goal/assist or two with his positioning, and the perception of his game could easily change.

View attachment 1699497
He presented to good positions throughout the game and the ball went elsewhere (not a criticism of the ball carriers). Could have easily had another one when Serong kicked his goal from 50

Hopefully the coaching staff go through the footage we don't get and see that.
 
You seriously aren’t comparing Pickett and Sturt in the physical stakes? I mean, kozzie Pickett is a human meatball, one of the most physically powerful players in the AFL! It’s like having a 170cm ball of flying concrete running around the place. Some of the hits he puts in make me wince on the sofa watching them. Probably the hardest small forward matchup in the AFL right now and he bullied Walker on Saturday in nearly every 50/50 contest.
Also if you are talking about Fritsch - he’s much more strongly built than Sturt with greater core strength. Despite being a couple of cm shorter I reckon he has at least 5 or 6 kg of extra muscle on Sturt.
So your claim is that Pickett is a "power" player? He is not good because he is strong, he is good because he is ****ing fast, agile and smart. Calling him concrete is just dumb. He's made of the same stuff as Sturt and has 10kg less than him.

Also, when does Fritsch ever win the ball because of his size? Notice how when he gets it he is almost always in space?

It's a dumb argument, Sturt isn't in the team to wrestle with defenders or burst out of stoppages. He is there to chase defenders, mark the ball on the lead or crumb.

Try and justify how Caleb Daniel is a good AFL player if you want to see how bad your point is.
 
I would describe Pickett as a power player due to his speed and agility. Ain't nobody moving anywhere without power from boots to glutes and he has it, hence the oomph he can deliver it with.

I'm actually curious to see if an athlete can be trained to effectively kangaroo hop the first few steps of a sprint to get as much momentum early with both legs delivering that power before it becomes a single leg delivery.

It would look silly, but if someone wins the 100m sprint gold medal because they shaved half a second off the total time by reaching their peak speed a fraction earlier suddenly everyone will be doing it.
 
So your claim is that Pickett is a "power" player? He is not good because he is strong, he is good because he is ****ing fast, agile and smart. Calling him concrete is just dumb. He's made of the same stuff as Sturt and has 10kg less than him.

Also, when does Fritsch ever win the ball because of his size? Notice how when he gets it he is almost always in space?

It's a dumb argument, Sturt isn't in the team to wrestle with defenders or burst out of stoppages. He is there to chase defenders, mark the ball on the lead or crumb.

Try and justify how Caleb Daniel is a good AFL player if you want to see how bad your point is.
I’m not sure what we are arguing about here.
My point is that don’t mind Sturt as a player but right now he’s lacks the physical power, in my opinion, to be seen as a reliable piece of the puzzle currently for Fremantle. He’s 5 years in the system and is 189-190cm and weighs 81kg. For context, Fritsch is 188cm and weighs 86kg. That’s 5 extra kg of muscle that Fritcsh has on Sturt (as well as just being probably the best medium forward inthe league anyway). Banfield who is often seen as being in direct competition with Sturt for a place in the side is 191cm and weighs 92kg. 11kg heavier.

Whatever way you dress it up, Sam is massively disadvantaged physically compared to these guys. Pickett is an explosive contested ball beast. He’s on a different planet to Sturt in terms of power and is nearly impossible to tackle even if surrounded by 3 or 4 opposition players. He’s not playing in the same position as Sturt anyway so is a bit of a red herring in this conversation.
I haven’t watched the game back yet but from where I was sitting at the ground I thought Sturt did well enough but half his touches were in contested situations and he nearly got caught in possession several times but managed to get it away. He seems to struggle to get his hands free to release possession when being tackled in the handball possession chains than JL likes to play and his core body strength is not near the same as the other players in that position.
You might argue that his job is to not get involved in contested situations and just spread and mark the ball on the lead but I think that’s unrealistic. Especially given the way we like to handball chain possession forward where our guys often almost take the contact and step around opposition players before releasing the handball to the next guy while being tackled.
I don’t know why Sam can’t put on a bit more weight but there can’t be many 5th years players 190cm that are only 81kg in the AFL
 

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sturt wasnt great but hardly any one was in the forward line. lots of pressure and fumbling, wouldnt want to write him off after that. hes got some physical attributes which are useful, but playing one out in the goal square (which i saw him once or tiwce) i dont think is going to advantage him
 
I’m not sure what we are arguing about here.
My point is that don’t mind Sturt as a player but right now he’s lacks the physical power, in my opinion, to be seen as a reliable piece of the puzzle currently for Fremantle. He’s 5 years in the system and is 189-190cm and weighs 81kg. For context, Fritsch is 188cm and weighs 86kg. That’s 5 extra kg of muscle that Fritcsh has on Sturt (as well as just being probably the best medium forward inthe league anyway). Banfield who is often seen as being in direct competition with Sturt for a place in the side is 191cm and weighs 92kg. 11kg heavier.

Whatever way you dress it up, Sam is massively disadvantaged physically compared to these guys. Pickett is an explosive contested ball beast. He’s on a different planet to Sturt in terms of power and is nearly impossible to tackle even if surrounded by 3 or 4 opposition players. He’s not playing in the same position as Sturt anyway so is a bit of a red herring in this conversation.
I haven’t watched the game back yet but from where I was sitting at the ground I thought Sturt did well enough but half his touches were in contested situations and he nearly got caught in possession several times but managed to get it away. He seems to struggle to get his hands free to release possession when being tackled in the handball possession chains than JL likes to play and his core body strength is not near the same as the other players in that position.
You might argue that his job is to not get involved in contested situations and just spread and mark the ball on the lead but I think that’s unrealistic. Especially given the way we like to handball chain possession forward where our guys often almost take the contact and step around opposition players before releasing the handball to the next guy while being tackled.
I don’t know why Sam can’t put on a bit more weight but there can’t be many 5th years players 190cm that are only 81kg in the AFL
You're going to have to define power for me with the way you are using it.
 
For what it’s worth I would LOVE to have Pickett in our team. Jeez what a point of difference that guy would be over the next decade in our forward line. When taking his age and future growth and longevity into consideration I’d have him as almost the number one player in the comp I would like ha to trade in.
Imagine him crumbing Darcy’s taps at F50 stoppages… oh boy
 
You're going to have to define power for me with the way you are using it.
It’s a mixture of pace, explosiveness and physical strength. For small crumbing forwards like Pickett he just hits the contest at max velocity and has clean hands and great skills so that’s why his type of power is so effective.
A different example is power in AFL is someone like Fyfe being able to shrug off tackles in contests while standing up and release the ball to a teammate. This is more relevant to Sturt IMO. Fyfe just has that core strength though his shoulders and legs to shrug off opposition tacklers and get his arms free.
I feel like Sturt is a little off the level in that aspect. I’m not saying he needs to be at Fyfe levels but he’s not even as good as Banfield in contested situations. Therefore he relies on his lead up play and spread to make an impact. That’s harder IMO as unless the entire gameplan is built around getting the Ball to Sturt I50, he is going to need to play his role in the contested ball exchanges in this team. It can’t be avoided IMO.
I thought he was ok on Saturday to be honest and fought and chased hard.
 
It’s a mixture of pace, explosiveness and physical strength. For small crumbing forwards like Pickett he just hits the contest at max velocity and has clean hands and great skills so that’s why his type of power is so effective.
A different example is power in AFL is someone like Fyfe being able to shrug off tackles in contests while standing up and release the ball to a teammate. This is more relevant to Sturt IMO. Fyfe just has that core strength though his shoulders and legs to shrug off opposition tacklers and get his arms free.
I feel like Sturt is a little off the level in that aspect. I’m not saying he needs to be at Fyfe levels but he’s not even as good as Banfield in contested situations. Therefore he relies on his lead up play and spread to make an impact. That’s harder IMO as unless the entire gameplan is built around getting the Ball to Sturt I50, he is going to need to play his role in the contested ball exchanges in this team. It can’t be avoided IMO.
I thought he was ok on Saturday to be honest and fought and chased hard.

Fyfe is a terrible comparison. Sturt should not be in the middle of stoppages. If that's where you want him then I agree he's undersize but then so is 80% of the competition.

I don't agree with the way you want to assign Sturt's role. I also don't agree you have to set the game plan up for him because what you are essentially saying is every forward that doesn't have Picketts physical traits are useless. He's fast and agile enough, he should have a role like a small/medium forward. Lead up, crumb and tackle. That fact he is 190 instead of 180 just means he'll have reach over smaller defenders. He took a contested mark playing on Hurley on debut ffs, he's not a complete liability in a contest anyway.

Banfield is stronger but also noticeably slower. Sturt is much more likely to get separation on a lead.

And I just flat out disagree that Pickett is getting by on power by your definiton or mine. He is getting by because he is rapid, with great agility and game sense. He doesn't have blokes hanging off him as he leaves congestion because they can't get their hands on him, not because he is too strong and pulls away.
 
I would like to see more of Sturt and I think he’s got some tools of real value but I just felt that he looked a slight, scrawny lad out there on Saturday and may not be as strong in the clinches as other players in that position. If possible I’d like to see him get 4 or 5 games in a row to see how he progresses but I’m not sure that will happen.
 

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Prediction Changes: Round 13 Vs Richmond + prematch discussion

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