Prediction Changes: Round 3 Vs West Coast Eagles + pre-match discussion

[Purple Jesus]

Last year Brodie had 58 centre clearances.

Serong was next best with 51.

Mundy came in 3rd with 38.

Freo's hierachy has seen fit to remove the number 1 & 3 centre clearance players in the squad, when the removal of the most productive centre clearance player wasn't required.

Absurd.

That was last year.

Oops, looks like you are wrong.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I would say we're 0-2 because the forward line is utter s**t. At one stage between the last quarter of round 1 and the start of round 2 we had 43 consecutive inside 50s without scoring a goal. That's unprecedented.
I'm not saying the mids are humming but the centre square is where we are mostly getting punished in the middle, and I agree with you so we had to change there.
The most important and correct selections are not dropping Amiss and Walters playing a full game - that's addressing the #1 reason we're losing though I would have preferred Sturt in as well to help with that,
The second most important decision is to do something different in the centre bounce and it seems they're doing that too.
Overall I think these are good decisions.

I will be very erect if the first bounce is Darcy/Jackson/AB/Serong. Dynamic and strong for once. Darcy just has to tap it in the vicinity of Jackson and we'll get a clear centre clearance.

 

[Alfonz]

People complaining about Brodie, scroll to the bottom of this list and see where JOM and Brodie sit:

2023 AFL League Midfielder Time On Ground % Per Game Leaders

2023 AFL League Midfielder Time On Ground % Per Game Leaders.

www.footywire.com

Most of the players down there have been injured and/or subbed (this includes Hopper, Heppel, Kelly, Pickett). Take guys like Cotchin and Dangerfield out who are old and spend more time forward, then it looks to me that the bottom 3 in the entire AFL for players in the main midfield rotation are JOM, Shiel, Brodie. We have two in the same side.

 

[Gekko71]

Deadset one of the dumbest selection moves I've seen in quite some time.

JLO and co. are panicking.

Brodie is no the issue.

We've just accentuated a clear deficiency.

Our centre clearance work is a disaster - the solution, drop our best centre clearance player from 2022.

Unbelievably stupid.

I'm a big believer in Brodie as our best contested mid... But that's also the problem with selecting him, as if you negate his influence, our midfield clearance numbers turn to shit.

Late last year opposing sides started tagging / blocking Brodie out at games. He was our main in-and-under option, and every time he had a quiet one late last season, our clearances suffered.

We need more clearance options at the coalface than just Brodie... It's far too predictable.

Looking at the changes this week though, and I have no frickin' idea whatsoever what to expect at center clearances...

...and neither will the Eagles.

Which is the whole idea.

Teams have worked out how to negate our centre clearance / midfield dominance from last year. We need to mix it up.

 

[Sweetback]

Sonny might get a go in the midfield too

 

[Taylor]

No, he's our second best on numbers just behind Serong. Despite being used less as was pointed out last week.

Brayshaw, Serong, Brodie and O'Meara are all on 3 total centre clearances for the year.

One point five per game.

Brodie averaged 2.4 last year.
Serong 2.3
Mundy 1.7
Brayshaw 1.4

If O'Meara is the Mundy replacement, he's on track. Brayshaw is on track. Serong and Brodie are down, Serong offers more than Brodie defensively and on spread.

We need them both improved. We need immediate turn around.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Sonny might get a go in the midfield too

I think those days are done and that forwardline needs all the leadership and class it can get

 

[Vintage]

It's genuinely the dumbest move I've seen in JLO's time.

He's just removed our number 1 centre clearance, stoppage and contested ball winner from season 2022 where we made a run to the finals and finished 6th overall.

We're 0-2 and Brodie has been replaced by a debutant for a derby - it's beyond stupid.

Calm down petal.

He’s been replaced by Aish and Jackson. Aish has been replaced by NOD. Banfield by Walters and Walters by Johnson.

 

[Taylor]

Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

24

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

to tag Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

31

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

like he should have done with LDU last weekend

 

[TheMcManusNose]

Tbh I'm more annoyed about Johnson debut as the sub. Such a shit bloke move.

 

[Ge3ks]

"Nathan O'Driscoll comes in for the dropped Brodie, while Bailey Banfield has also been omitted. Confirmed debutant Matt Johnson has been named an emergency and will start as the sub."

I don't mind this at all. Brodie has been down on form last 2 weeks. Happy to have NoD back, and stoked to see Johnson potentially getting a debut in a derby.

 

[DeanS]

No one should be gifted a game, even if it's your debut.

 

[Sweetback]

I think those days are done and that forwardline needs all the leadership and class it can get

Yeah fair enough. We need some kind of leadership succession plan though

 

[CaseySibosadoHOF]

Brayshaw, Serong, Brodie and O'Meara are all on 3 total centre clearances for the year.

One point five per game.

Brodie averaged 2.4 last year.
Serong 2.3
Mundy 1.7
Brayshaw 1.4

If O'Meara is the Mundy replacement, he's on track. Brayshaw is on track. Serong and Brodie are down, Serong offers more than Brodie defensively and on spread.

We need them both improved. We need immediate turn around.

Brodie attended 396 CBs per game last year. That's 16.5 per game. He's attended 20 this year. 10 per game. If you adjust for that decrease in volume of attendances, you get 2.475...that's almost exactly how many CCs he averaged last year.

A far question is why he's attending less CBs and whether that's because of an issue with him outside of clearance winning ability, but it's also obvious that he's averaging less CCs almost entirely because he's averaging less CBAs.

 

[Quazar]

still perplexed Hughes survives, but at least some changes/shake-ups have occurred. We all know J-Lo is not swinging an axe....unless we lose this badly.

I think we win, but that is said with no confidence. I hope Matty goes well when he debuts in the game; shame he's sub, but thems the breaks...

 

[cp3_jr]

Think the need to add some speed and unpredictability to the midfield was the deciding factor with Switta and Jackson getting more CBD opportunities. Also having Aish in there at times to shore up things will help, as aside from Brayshaw, Serong/JOM/Brodie have really struggled defensively and on the spread.

Would like to see Switta and JOM play 50/50 forward and mid and NOD play the attacking wing role. Also surprised both Hughes and Henry are still in the 22 as I think another point of difference forward of centre in Sturt would’ve been handy and looked better balance wise.

Defensively the main concern is whether we will be able to limit the likes of Cripps and Ryan as Wilson isn’t great defensively and Chapman has been caught out a few times the first two games leading to goals. Whilst Walker makes mistakes at time s with his decision making and execution under pressure, he is our best lock down small back comfortably.

 

[FDH16]

He isn't close to being our best centre clearance player this season though, we don't get points for goals kicked last year.

He needs to find form and I expect he will. BRODIE.

He's our leading centre clearance player this year.

He's our number 2 clearance player behind Serong by 1...

 

[Taylor]

He's our leading centre clearance player this year.

He's our number 2 clearance player behind Serong by 1...

We have four players on equal totals for centre clearances.

 

[FDH16]

Think the need to add some speed and unpredictability to the midfield was the deciding factor with Switta and Jackson getting more CBD opportunities. Also having Aish in there at times to shore up things will help, as aside from Brayshaw, Serong/JOM/Brodie have really struggled defensively and on the spread.

Would like to see Switta and JOM play 50/50 forward and mid and NOD play the attacking wing role. Also surprised both Hughes and Henry are still in the 22 as I think another point of difference forward of centre in Sturt would’ve been handy and looked better balance wise.

Defensively the main concern is whether we will be able to limit the likes of Cripps and Ryan as Wilson isn’t great defensively and Chapman has been caught out a few times the first two games leading to goals. Whilst Walker makes mistakes at time s with his decision making and execution under pressure, he is our best lock down small back comfortably.

Speed is secondary if you cannot win the first possession.

That's the responsibility of Darcy/Jackson Serong/Brodie - it's bizarre he's copped it.

 

[FDH16]

We have four players on equal totals for centre clearances.

Sure, it's a small data set. He's equal with 3 others on two games.

Use a larger data set - he was number clearance & contested ball winner in season 2022 - without peer.

Seems a bit knee-jerky.

 

[freo1]

Should not be allowed to debut someone as the sub. Just the cruelest thing ever. Poor Johnson

 

[cp3_jr]

Speed is secondary if you cannot win the first possession.

That's the responsibility of Darcy/Jackson Serong/Brodie - it's bizarre he's copped it.

I’m a big Brodie fan but it is more about the collective in there and it hasn’t worked thus far - and could’ve been him, JOM or Serong getting the chop really. I think we saw the difference speed and agility makes last week when Switta moved in there as the intensity and pressure lifted noticeably.

Also agree that the rucks have been poor with their follow up work thus far and Darcy in particular gives away far too many free kicks.

 

[ignoramus]

It's kinda weird how low their TOG is given they both have played at previous clubs with much higher percentages.

People complaining about Brodie, scroll to the bottom of this list and see where JOM and Brodie sit:

2023 AFL League Midfielder Time On Ground % Per Game Leaders

2023 AFL League Midfielder Time On Ground % Per Game Leaders.

www.footywire.com

Most of the players down there have been injured and/or subbed (this includes Hopper, Heppel, Kelly, Pickett). Take guys like Cotchin and Dangerfield out who are old and spend more time forward, then it looks to me that the bottom 3 in the entire AFL for players in the main midfield rotation are JOM, Shiel, Brodie. We have two in the same side.

I see the low TOG as a byproduct of system, rather than fitness. For whatever reason (either deemed not good enough, or concerned to maximise consistency of forward line personnel) Brodie is not thought of as a half forward or as capable of resting at half forward. If you have 4 inside mids, but can only play 3 in that position at any given time, then the maximum TOG based on equal distribution is 75%. Brayshaw gets higher TOG because he spends time on the wing. There's also a kind of synergy between Brayshaw and Serong that probably earns them a bit more time inside together.

If we start cycling Switta, Jackson, Aish and others through the middle — e.g. to make us less predictable or because we're getting smashed with the standard set up — Brodie's TOG can only go down if the coaches don't feel that the forward line benefits with him in there over a specialist forward.

That's why he's been dropped, I'd say, whereas JOM showed something to build on from his stints forward.

 

[freoextra]

Happy - Drizzy and Johnson

Harsh - Brodie, but a mid needed to be dropped

But how does Hughes keep his spot

All it should take would be for Johnson to make a positive debut in the minutes he is given or for Erasmus killing it in the practice game this weekend

 

[FUS_RO_DAH]

Spicy take time!

• Hughes hasn't really been all that bad and you guys are just mean.
• Love Brodie but glad we dropped him.
• Henry shouldn't be dropped from the 22 anytime soon.
• Nothing wrong with debuting someone as the sub--especially now they can be activated anytime.
• Purely from the fact that Noddy's come into the team is enough to ensure we'll smack WC comfortably. Talisman of the highest order.
• Tabs should absolutely be playing. Our best KPF by a mile.

Come at me.