Preview Changes versus Swans

[weltschmerz]

With this match already looking unwinnable, I’d like to see us rest one of Bont or Richards and let him get himself right. It’d be good to let them both heal up, but jeez, missing all three of Bont, Libba, and Richards would hurt like hell.

 

[Doggy]

With this match already looking unwinnable, I’d like to see us rest one of Bont or Richards and let him get himself right. It’d be good to let them both heal up, but jeez, missing all three of Bont, Libba, and Richards would hurt like hell.

No thanks.

I would rather fight than give up without trying

 

[BigFloppa]

Rest Bont and Richards. Naughton if he needs it too. Bring them all back with hopefully English too then beat Freo and turn things around. 5-3 with an easier block of games and the only major out being Darcy would be alright.

 

[Doggy]

Rest Bont and Richards. Naughton if he needs it too. Bring them all back with hopefully English too then beat Freo and turn things around. 5-3 with an easier block of games and the only major out being Darcy would be alright.

Or... instead of folding like a cheap deck chair before the game even starts (starts at 0 - 0 too), the club fights for the following:

• pride
• 10 year flag celebrations on that evening
• sets the tone for the rest of the year
• the clip played at home games before the boys come out ... that is meant to mean something and instill fight and pride

The plastics had many out in OR and rolled Hawthorn easily. Show some bloody fight instead of this bullshit mentality.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Interestingly, this is by far the biggest difference between statistical model tipping, and bookmakers (which obviously lead on statistical modelling to set markets anyway). Generally, for all matches, they would not be more than a handful of points different.

Statistical models have us as a 5-point favourite, we are 27-point underdogs by the bookmakers. And this 32 point difference is more than any other game since 2020 - 5 more points than any difference. Ironically, despite this being considered for all 800+ games since the year 2020, the 2nd ranked was also us, three games ago, against Essendon. In that instance, the bookmakers thought we should win by 74 points. The statistical models thought we should only win by 49 points. The models got it more right that game. Will they get it more right this one?

Generally, but not always, the bookmakers get it right. Indeed, the "not always" allows for professional gamblers to exist. And no doubt plenty of statistical model-driven punters will be backing us this week. Facing up against the mug punter who has seen our injuries and reacting to our form and is backing Sydney.

The mug punters got it wrong vs. Essendon. They assumed we were flying high, and Essendon weren't. Games since have proved that wrong. Though tbf, maybe the mug punters would have been right if it wasn't for in-game injuries and the luck of our own inaccurate goalkicking in the 3rd quarter.

Statistical models would consider, for instance, that the Swans' win last week too was not actually all that impressive, because GWS with all their injuries are not that good. We beat them ourselves by 15 goals with similar injuries after all.

In any case, if the mug punters are getting it right this game, it will be because the statistical models fail to consider:

• Bont, Naughton, Richards and Trelaor are will not play at full fitness
• That our expected inclusions are simply worse players than the statistical models suggest
• Maybe our home ground advantage is not as strong with a big Sydney and small Dogs attendance
• That the multiplicative effect of losing injuries is hard to model when statisical model player ratings systems tend to rate player ins and outs on a linear scale. Punters get this right. Losing both Lobb (potentially) and O'Donnell, with Budarick already out, is worse than any individual player.
• That we should be more responsive to massive changes in form.

On the other hand the statistical models got it right vs. Essendon. Their accuracy is this defensible

• We tend to overreact far too much to the most recent results when we have a body of evidence over more games of the players and teams involved, and we typically over-subscribe the impact of things like "player fitness". Bontempelli, Trelaor, Richards and Naughton might not be fully fit, but what does that actually mean? They'll still be good. Naugthon wasn't fit vs. Geelong, but still kicked 3 goals.

 

[BigFloppa]

Or... instead of folding like a cheap deck chair before the game even starts (starts at 0 - 0 too), the club fights for the following:

• pride
• 10 year flag celebrations on that evening
• sets the tone for the rest of the year
• the clip played at home games before the boys come out ... that is meant to mean something and instill fight and pride

The plastics had many out in OR and rolled Hawthorn easily. Show some bloody fight instead of this bullshit mentality.

It's not giving up. It's about strategically picking your battles. It's a long season. I'd rather have a big loss on Thursday and then beat Freo than have two honourable losses.

 

[Golden_6]

We showed last year that we can still kick a winning score without Darcy. The big difference is that our midfield appears very hobbled (Bont & Richards with concerns & Libba missing). We averaged 109 points per game over the 7 games Darcy missed if you include the game he got injured in.

Rhylee West

14

Rhylee West

Age

25

Ht

183cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

5.7

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

2.5

3star

T

1.5

3star

G

0.5

3star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

5.6

3star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.2

3star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.6

3star

needs to step up massively around goals like he did last year. Buku played a good support role last year so we need something similar from a Croft or Lewis type. Hopefully Arty can come back healthy and same with Weightman to give us an attack with multiple options.

The defensive issues will continue to remain but I think we have enough options to still be able to score 100 points which is enough for a winning score. It's a more unpredictable setting that just relying on Darcy & Naughton to kick a score.

I'm been very very pessemistic this week but I've come around a little this week. We're still 4-2 and have historically bounced back when everything else seemingly goes against us.

 

[weltschmerz]

Or... instead of folding like a cheap deck chair before the game even starts (starts at 0 - 0 too), the club fights for the following:

• pride
• 10 year flag celebrations on that evening
• sets the tone for the rest of the year
• the clip played at home games before the boys come out ... that is meant to mean something and instill fight and pride

The plastics had many out in OR and rolled Hawthorn easily. Show some bloody fight instead of this bullshit mentality.

Surely it’s foolish to send out injured players because of pride?

 

[Doggy]

Surely it’s foolish to send out injured players because of pride?

Many players play with niggles throughout the year... deliberately throwing games is stupid

 

[Foxman98]

Surely it’s foolish to send out injured players because of pride?

Are you serious? We have a Pride round for a reason send them out!

 

[Doggy]

It's not giving up. It's about strategically picking your battles. It's a long season. I'd rather have a big loss on Thursday and then beat Freo than have two honourable losses.

I'm surprised you don't think the league will see it as anything but. Resting most of your midfield and your only key forward avenue to goal plus the other injuries in these circumstances raises the white flag

 

[BigFloppa]

I'm surprised you don't think the league will see it as anything but. Resting most of your midfield and your only key forward avenue to goal plus the other injuries in these circumstances raises the white flag

Good. Then they'll underestimate us.

 

[Doggy]

Good. Then they'll underestimate us.

Let me guess, Ryan Gardner is your full forward. Please.

The club won't do that, especially on the night of the anniversary of the 2016 flag.

 

[weltschmerz]

I’m very sure Bont will play. He’s one of only two 2016 premiership players on the list, and the other has been ruled out with concussion. He’ll insist on running out. I just hope his knee holds up and that insistence on the playing doesn’t result in a worse injury.

 

[Dog 36]

Rest Bont and Richards. Naughton if he needs it too. Bring them all back with hopefully English too then beat Freo and turn things around. 5-3 with an easier block of games and the only major out being Darcy would be alright.

But but what does this mean with the Tooth N Nail mantra?

How can you even suggest the above that goes against the mantra of mateship, resilience and fighting spirit and even more.

This is more important than anything IMO

 

[Wocka]

After sitting through the second half of the Essendon game, i overreacted and had money on the Hawks at -8.5 and based on that, overreacted again and had money on Geelong at -11.5 but what does that all mean?
Stats mean sh!t and my eyes don’t lie.

 

[lachy]

No thanks.

I would rather fight than give up without trying

This defeatism is pathetic. Imagine the outcry if we did put the cue away as the game coming up at home may be a bit hard

 

[lachy]

Surely it’s foolish to send out injured players because of pride?

There is barely an AFL player playing on the weekend without some kind of niggle. They only don't play if it cannot be managed

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Bont and our two vice-captains are both proppy. Libba, the last man besides Bont to captain a match, is out. Of the leadership team, Dale is also a bit proppy and of course Weightman is out.

Imagine anyone being told two years ago that Matt Kennedy might be next in line to lead the Bulldogs out.

Naughty could

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

But but what does this mean with the Tooth N Nail mantra?

How can you even suggest the above that goes against the mantra of mateship, resilience and fighting spirit and even more.

This is more important than anything IMO

Also, this is the Anzac Day round

 

[Bald Headed Flog]

My body is so ready for VFL AA full back Ryan Gardner to towel up Curnow this week. You all know it's coming

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I'm surprised you don't think the league will see it as anything but. Resting most of your midfield and your only key forward avenue to goal plus the other injuries in these circumstances raises the white flag

I don't disagree with the principle, but this isn't the week to do it. In fact, because we're the paying members who want to see our team do well in the home games, it should generally be in the away games.

Geelong rested half their team in Darwin vs. GC in 2024, and proceeded to lose by about 15 goals. That's when you do it. Out of sight, out of mind, tough away game, tough conditions, no home members attending, probably going to lose anyway.

Not that we still might beat the Swans, and I'm a home member. I want to physically see us fight on the field when I attend.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

So definitely/probably out

Darcy
JOD
Libba
Cody
Budarick
Tim
Arty
Garcia
Lobb

Probably play but not fully fit

Bont knee
Astro hand
Croft shoulder
Ed ankle
Dale not sure but some issue

That is some list out of the 14 only Garcia is a questionable best 23.

 

[Bulldogs85]

 

[Doggy]

Another week of Emmett who is not a ruckman and not ready