Preview Changes versus Swans

[low impact and reckless]

Bont at full forward?

This is the move . Press everyone up to the 50 metre are and play him one out. Consider having Freijah as the second deepest forward . This will also make it hard for Sydney to cut through the mid field . Anyone who kicks the ball shallow into the forward line gets dragged. Stop the rebound . Has to be a very contested game this week.

 

[DexterTan]

I was being facetious.

BF doesn't know that word.

 

[Anja_Nees]

BF doesn't know that word.

Its cousins sarcasm and irony are also not often understood.

 

[Wocka]

It's the very fact that by definition one of you and the other guy, despite both being thoughtful about the game, are backing opposite sides, that means one of you has to be the mug punter. And that's all that the bookmakers need to make money out of this game. If you both wager an identical amount on the line, it doesn't matter that one of you got it right, it only matters that another bloke gets it wrong.

It's so funny how everyone has said that maybe we should tank this game because of all our injuries and reset for the rest of the year.

Say we do that, Sydney have gotten wind of how we're Bontempelli and Richards,

Sydney, now pushing for top 4/top/2, are thinking maybe the same thing - play strongest team in home games off 7+ day breaks, rest players in away games off (their own) 6 day break, who cares, wins or lose.

But then Sydney see how we're resting players, so they can see if they can pinch a win, see how those debutants "mysteriously" get an illness on Wednesday

But then because those players are playing, they might smash us and embarrass us, so we play Bontempelli and Richards again.

Then Sydney realise that we're playing a strong team and would be up for the reunion, so their strongest players that they magically were deciding to rest are late outs on Thursday

It's a weird sort of prisoner's dilemma game of chicken if both teams tried to do this

This is some of your best work.
I'm concerned about 3NP, can somebody do a welfare check.

 

[JohnnySteel]

Will be very interesting to see who makes it out on the park. Sounds like they’ll name Bont but may be a late out. My prediction:

OUT: Lewis (omitted), Darcy, JOD, Libba, Bont (inj).
IN: Smith, Dolan, Treloar, Busslinger, Vandermeer (in if Bont misses).

 

[Doggy]

Will be very interesting to see who makes it out on the park. Sounds like they’ll name Bont but may be a late out. My prediction:

OUT: Lewis (omitted), Darcy, JOD, Libba, Bont (inj).
IN: Smith, Dolan, Treloar, Busslinger, Vandermeer (in if Bont misses).

I think he will play.

You'd have to lock him up from stopping him playing in this particular game.

 

[mookieb]

It's the very fact that by definition one of you and the other guy, despite both being thoughtful about the game, are backing opposite sides, that means one of you has to be the mug punter. And that's all that the bookmakers need to make money out of this game. If you both wager an identical amount on the line, it doesn't matter that one of you got it right, it only matters that another bloke gets it wrong.

Not necessarily correct. Sharp punters get bets wrong all the time. As long as your hitting say 55%+ you're profitable overall.

Going back to the original post it appears stat or system models love WB and did so last year despite the evidence they struggled against top teams. I think this is a big weakness with models based purely on stats.

My argument would be that the structure of the WB team has been compromised so heavily the system won't work. You can lose a gun midfielder like Libba and find a pretty good replacement in the middle. You can't easily replace English or Darcy. You can't easily bring in 2 key backs if Lobb and JOD miss. Now Libba missing isn't a disaster by itself if Bont misses or plays at 80% and Richards is sore then it is a problem. I expect Jordon to blanket Bont anyway.

WB has a huge amount of top end talent and a long tail, but it's possible English, Libba, Darcy and Bont miss who are elite or near it. Lobb, JOD, Budarick and Jones are other players that will be missed.

It seems very rare but WB also have 3 consecutive 6 day breaks which isn't ideal for a team banged up.

Good luck for the game though. Teams tend to have a real crack around these GC anniversary games, but I don't think you'll have the cattle here to get close to winning.

 

[Proffessor]

Glad to see Smith getting a crack. I've been on this wagon after Emmetts first week. Like to see Davidson get dropped as he's been weak so far this year. Would be good to see more from West this weekend.

Although Davidson's form hasn't been up to the standard he set last year, I still think he is well ahead of several others, including Hynes.

I definitely wouldn't be dropping Sam, he might make some mistakes, but he still works his butt off and gets involved a lot more than most of our young players.

I think his form, and West's, will turn around soon.

 

[Foxman98]

Although Davidson's form hasn't been up to the standard he set last year, I still think he is well ahead of several others, including Hynes.

I definitely wouldn't be dropping Sam, he might make some mistakes, but he still works his butt off and gets involved a lot more than most of our young players.

I think his form, and West's, will turn around soon.

How’s he ahead of Hynes? Hynes has more good moments and shows signs of being an afl player Davo played a good preseason game and that’s about it

 

[Proffessor]

How’s he ahead of Hynes? Hynes has more good moments and shows signs of being an afl player Davo played a good preseason game and that’s about it

I disagree completely.

Davidson clearly had a much better season last year and despite them having similar disposal numbers this year I would argue that Hynes has had less good moments and made more impactful mistakes\turnovers.

FWIW Davidson's average meters gained are still slightly more than double those of Hynes for this season.
Last season Sam was up by a factor of 5!

I'd certainly drop Cooper before Sam.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

There is big chance we will only have 5/6 players who have played 100 games or more
Treloar
Naughton
Williams
Dale
Kennedy
Richards some doubt

 

[BomToydd]

we should be picking a team to win and these changes if they gel is a better opportunity than if we do not go down that path

Coffield though? Maybe if you're trying to win a suburban ressies comp

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Bevo needs to think outside the square in this one. Anyone with any bright/dumb ideas for Bevo.

Here is one and only 50% kidding.

Given that Grundy is going to win just about every tap out and have likes of Warner running it out of the centre square.

We deploy our wingers to a defensive setup as far along the square that is allowed, ready to flood their forward line. One of those wingers enters the square as the ball is being thrown up giving a stop play free kick to the swans ruckman.

This is easier to defend than having a swans player running out of the centre. As I said only 50% joking anyone else with any bright/dumb ideas for Bevo.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Swans have announced two debutants as well, bit of doubt around Warner I hear.

 

[Doggy]

Swans have announced two debutants as well, bit of doubt around Warner I hear.

They just know they can get away with it.

 

[Golden_6]

Swans have announced two debutants as well, bit of doubt around Warner I hear.

I actually have a strange feeling about a win tomorrow. I have no idea why but sometimes you just get a feeling about certain games.

It will come down to how fit Bont & Richards are. If they play and we can dominate the midfield (with no Gulden and potentially Warner) then we might be able to protect our backline enough to make it a good contest.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Interesting to see what they do with James Jordan. He hasn't really been tagging centre bounce midfielders, he probably goes to Bailey Dale

31

Bailey Dale

Age

29

Ht

188cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

1.6

4star

MG

117.4

2star

D

9.0

2star

K

5.1

2star

HB

3.9

3star

M

2.3

2star

T

1.7

3star

MG

117.4

2star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.0

4star

to completely stifle our ball movement out of our defence.

 

[Mojorisin]

Interesting to see what they do with James Jordan. He hasn't really been tagging centre bounce midfielders, he probably goes to Bailey Dale to completely stifle our ball movement out of our defence.

I'd be shocked if he goes to anyone other than Richards. Our keenness to start a midfielder in defence at CBA's (with the wingman dropping back) probably plays into it.

 

[scratchie]

This is going to be unpopular but I was watching Lewis and I don’t think he was as bad as people made out. The handball flub was ridiculous but every player has a moment like that. Even though he’s older he’s been parachuted into the AFL into a team in crisis.

I think he’s the kind of player who if left in a whole season would kick 25 goals and do a job. Miles behind what our other candidates can do but handy to have if you have injuries.

You’re dreaming

 

[scratchie]

Buslinger or Gardiner??

 

[Graeme Cook]

How’s he ahead of Hynes? Hynes has more good moments and shows signs of being an afl player Davo played a good preseason game and that’s about it

He has a better tank than hynes he gets more possessions and is a lot faster.
Hynes will ok when he builds his body up but he lacks keg speed.

 

[Wholetthedogsout]

Buslinger or Gardiner??

Bus... Gardiner has had hes chance nearly 3 yrs worth....anyone know if or who the umps will be

 

[weltschmerz]

Buslinger or Gardiner??

Buss was an emergency last week so he’s closer to it than Gardner.

 

[Skinny10]

Will be interesting to see how Treloar goes obviously depends on conditions and rucks availability also 6 day breaks

 

[Bald Headed Flog]

Buslinger or Gardiner??

Both. If Lobb gets up then Gardner would be emergency, but I'd expect both Buss and Gard are coming in this week.

Sounding like it'll be:
Ruck: Smith
FWD: Naughton, Croft, Emmett
DEF: Buss, Gard/Lobb, Khamis

Darcy, JOD, Libba all definitely out, then Lobb questionable and Lewis to be dropped to emergency