Does it take too long for clubs to rebuild their lists?

[branedotorg]

Carlton’s rebuild was going pretty well until they sacked Ratten. They had one poor year and lost their nerve. They’re paying the price for it.

look like it but not quite.

our drafting and development* in that era was well below par, ratten had the team doing well but it was dead wood in the next generation, hence the 42 player turnover in the past three years and the lack of decent 'middle aged' players (23-27) running around now.

I think most players in the draft, having luck are able to be 100-200 game players, the main difference is drive and skills development. This is somewhat personal but is also hugely reliant on the culture of the club you land in.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Whilst I have huge sympathy for Carlton, Melbourne and Brisbane fans, as a Pom who only moved here 5 years ago, can I say that AFL has created the conditions for the one of the fairest competitions in the world...and you need to be careful what you wish for.

Contrast this to soccer, where the (1) establishment of the EPL in 1992 changed how money was allocated (i.e. the big clubs got richer), (2) the introduction of unrestricted and uncompensated free agency, and (3) ever-increasing TV rights deals means that there are only ever 3-4 contenders for the title in any season (barring the once in 50 year miracle that was Leicester's title three years ago). My team, Ipswich, were the third most successful side in English soccer in the 1970s, thanks to a combination of brilliant coaching and investment in an academy before anyone knew what an academy even was....yet we now prepare for our 17th consecutive season as a mid-table Championship side (one tier below the EPL). The best a supporter of a club like Ipswich can hope for is to fluke promotion into the EPL and then scrape an existence finishing 10th - 15th in the EPL year after year (effectively what West Brom and Stoke have done for the last 10 years - until this year). Hell, even a team the size of Liverpool are now approaching 30 years since their last title.

Success in AFL is simply down to a combination of good management, good drafting and luck. If we take Freo as an example, we've had bad luck in that 2-3 of our first round picks in the last few years have had to retire early due to illness and injury (Morabito, Pitt), and if we bounce back relatively quickly - and the signs are looking promising - I'm sure the narrative will be that our top-end drafts (especially this year) are the reason. But, the fact is that if we do bounce back into regular finals contention soon the success will be built on good drafting outside of the first round - Walters (53), Fyfe (20), Neale (58), Darcy (38), Blakely (34), A Pearce (37), Luke Ryan (66), Banfield (Rookie), Crowden (59); combined with good free trading (Matera, Wilson, Hamling, McCarthy, Bennell - please please).

The fact is that Geelong and the Hawks are some of the best managed sports teams going, and whilst I'm sure we are all bored of seeing them in finals contention year after year, at least they're not there due to anything other than good management. I can still remember when Chelsea and Man City were very average Tier 2 basketcases - but hey everyone loves a billionaire owner...

brisbane had a 3peat in recent histroy definetly dont feel sorry for them, they can rot on the bottom for awhile

 

[dean33]

I feel dirty for saying this but I liked David King's suggestion last year.

YOu have a normal first round like everyone knows but after that every club that has been outside of the 8 for 3 years or more gets a priority pick, so pick 19 would go to the club that has been out of the 8 the longest, pick 20 would go to the club that has been out of the 8 the second longest and so on.

So based on that we could have had a first round draft last year of

1. Brisbane
2. Fremantle
3. Carlton
4. North Melbourne
5. Fremantle
6. Collingwood
7. St Kilda
8. St Kilda
9. Western Bulldogs
10. Carlton
11. GWS
12. Adelaide
13. West Coast
14. Sydney
15. Brisbane
16. Western Bulldogs
17. Richmond
18. Brisbane
19. Gold Coast

and then straight afterwards it would be

20. Melbourne
21. Gold Coast
22. Brisbane
24. Carlton
25. St Kilda
26. Collingwood

or whatever the order is

and then continue on the draft from round 2 as normal.

Why reward mediocrity? The draft and trading can get you back to finals as long as the correct decisions are made. Unfortunately teams like Carlton have made terrible decisions so deserve to be in the predicament they are now. Just like we deserved to be in our situation 10 years ago and why we deserved to taste ultimate success in 2017. Starts with having a strong stable club, before you have that success is beyond reach.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Yes well the AFL aren't going to open a new front in WS with a bunch of 3rd raters, like with the Brisbane bears debacle.

It's a matter of timing. Invent two new clubs now and a different group of clubs would bear the brunt.

 

[Ron The Bear]

look like it but not quite.

our drafting and development* in that era was well below par, ratten had the team doing well but it was dead wood in the next generation, hence the 42 player turnover in the past three years and the lack of decent 'middle aged' players (23-27) running around now.

I think most players in the draft, having luck are able to be 100-200 game players, the main difference is drive and skills development. This is somewhat personal but is also hugely reliant on the culture of the club you land in.

Carlton might already have the talent they need. Nobody was saying Cotchin, Martin, Rance and Riewoldt were going to lead Richmond back to the top in 2010. They couldn't see it.

 

[BarbieITFC]

brisbane had a 3peat in recent histroy definetly dont feel sorry for them, they can rot on the bottom for awhile

Given that the OP sought to paraphrase a discussion on SEN about the impact that long/failed rebuilds have on the younger and emerging fan base - I'm sure all of the potential 8-18 year old fans of the Lions can regale us with stories of their three-peat that is so etched in their recent memory...

..oh no they're all of the kids walking around Brisbane wearing Cats, Swans and Hawks shirts...

 

[Scotland]

The AFL risks falling into the trap of equality of opportunity vs equality of outcome.

Look at the draft picks Hawthorn had from 2001-2006, two years later they were premiers. Top 4 2011-2016, 4 GFs, 3 flags.
Look at the draft picks Melbourne had from 2007-2012, two years later they were 8% away from winning the spoon. Right now they are on a streak of 11 years without a finals appearance.

Look at the concessions Gold Coast had vs GWS. Gold Coast have won 42 games form 158 starts with no finals appearances. GWS have won 53 from 136 and are 2 from 5 in finals. Top 4 the last two seasons and one of the premiership favourites. Gold Coast are tipped to finish bottom 6 again.

It's very hard to win flags. Bulldogs/Saints of the late 2000s, Adelaide of the mid 2000s, even Freo of the 2010s - these were pretty good sides that won doughnuts. To get to that level or even be a regular finalist isn't easy, but teams really shouldn't be out of the finals for 5, 6, 7 or more years in a row.

 

[ioppolo]

Brisbane made four GFs from 2001-04 & won all bar 04. They then didn't make finals until 2009. They haven't come close since except for 2013 when the Essendon thing opened the door for them to sneak into 8th.

I'd argue their supporters have suffered enough. Crazy Vossy after 2009 ruined them for a couple seasons followed by the go home 5 or whatever around 2014

 

[The Nostradamus]

Brisbane made four GFs from 2001-04 & won all bar 04. They then didn't make finals until 2009. They haven't come close since except for 2013 when the Essendon thing opened the door for them to sneak into 8th.

I'd argue their supporters have suffered enough. Crazy Vossy after 2009 ruined them for a couple seasons followed by the go home 5 or whatever around 2014

nah need more suffering, if we do a 3peat id spend 2 decade on the bottom of the ladder as a tradeoff

 

[madmug]

It's a matter of timing. Invent two new clubs now and a different group of clubs would bear the brunt.

That was dumb. You can thank Dumetriooo for that. Both will be on life support for many years to come.

 

[Ron The Bear]

That was dumb. You can thank Dumetriooo for that. Both will be on life support for many years to come.

Well the clubs didn't have much choice but to sign off on Demetriou's initiatives in that era. McGuire was one of the few public naysayers, suggesting the time might not be right.

 

[Furn2]

It's not that they take too long, its that they don't work at all.

 

[NUFC Tiger]

After 2016, many said we needed a full rebuild too. We'd made finals 3 years in a row and got sent packing each time at the first hurdle. I remember Dimma raising some eyebrows towards the end of 2016 when he said he thought he had the best list at his time at the club despite us having a disappointing season. Some active recruiting both in players and coaches, a rejig of people's responsibilities and ideas in the coaches box and a strong culture all played big parts in helping us snare a flag.

There is definitely a case for stability and smart recruiting. Having a strong administration and board is IMO just as important as having a strong footy department. At the same time, I tend to agree with Rohan. A club should yield the fruits of what they plant. If a club is smart with how it is run at all levels and in all areas, I don't see why they can't become a competitive club. I disagree on the disillusionment argument too for supporters not wanting to languish through a rebuild. Richmond at one point of time was infamously labelled as 'worst than Fitzroy' at the onset of Dimma's time at the club but managed to grow it's membership numbers year on year. I think that comes down to getting fan buy in and engagement. I'm sure there would be other clubs that have increased metrics like membership numbers despite not having tangible on field success.

 

[madmug]

It's not that they take too long, its that they don't work at all.

GC has never worked in any sport. GWS is a big strategic move & that would have been enough this side of 2030. Maybe GC at that time. The AFL are destroying the state & regional levels of community footy with its 100 years of history to fund that & crap like AFLx. They are cutting the games throat.

 

[Tony Harrison]

I have no sympathy for kids who are upset that their team isn't performing well for a few years.
Impatient little campaigners.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

There’s certain building blocks that need to be in place to succeed.

Need a stable board that is willing to see the plan through to the end and not baulk at the first sign of trouble.

1. Need a good recruiter who can pick the right players.
2. Need a coach who can implement a solid game plan.
3. Need good support staff and development coaches to enhance players skills.
4. Need a trade and Free agency policy that aligns with the rebuild strategy.

Clubs that repeatedly fail to rebuild fail at one or more of these steps.

 

[bungalow_bill]

I agree, you can't legislate an even competition. There's no way for the AFL to force teams to compete better, because with all the young talent that clubs like Carlton and Melbourne have, they should be doing a lot better than they are.

Hawthorn have 2 or 3 top 10 picks on their list at the moment. One of them is 31, the other is 35. Carlton have something in the late teens, 17 perhaps.

This is already beyond even.

Yes but high draft picks helped you win some of those flags. Picks 1(2001)2,5 (2004) for starters.

 

[Scotland]

Yes but high draft picks helped you win some of those flags. Picks 1(2001)2,5 (2004) for starters.

Hodge (1), Roughead (2), Franklin (5)
Murphy (1), Gibbs (1), Kreuzer (1)
Watts (1), Scully (1), Trengove (2)

Agree that talking about the number of top 10 picks on a team's list at a given point in time isn't all that relevant. We don't have Chris Judd any more but he was pretty handy in 2005/6.

 

[Kwality]

Absolute garbage.

To see who wasn't up to AFL level on your list look at the delistings last year.
The expansion added 90 odd kids to the player pool, very few of whom were up to AFL footy - this reduction in skill/ability/physical strength has now shuffled thru the comp, the 2nd tier players spread across ALL clubs.
Don't be seduced by the PR spin around whats coming in, address the failures on the way out.

 

[Damon_3388]

brisbane had a 3peat in recent histroy definetly dont feel sorry for them, they can rot on the bottom for awhile

They've made the finals once in the past 13 seasons, and look likely to be a bottom-four side again this year. They're also onto their fourth head coach in that period too.

Not saying that I agree with extra assistance being given, but the "successful era" is a fair while ago now. They've been perpetual cellar-dwellars to the current generation of kids coming through.

 

[captain blood 17]

I listened to that conversation as well. My overall feel on it is the last thing we want is more "AFL manufactured outcomes". We have equalisation measures, we have the draft, a salary cap etc etc. The mechanisms are there to rebuild. The one thing we had to learn growing up was resilience. And the beauty of sport is the unpredictable outcomes.
I have no issue with shorter game times if it helps the athletes. I haver no issue with a 17 round season and then finals. But shortening seasons or game times as young people have shorter attention spans, or further manipulation of the system to see teams have success just because they haven't won anything for a few years, doesn't sit well with me.

 

[captain blood 17]

And keep in mind, Melbourne have played in a granny in the last 20 years, Freo the last 5, Dogs and Tigers broke their ducks, Saints had a great run around 2010. So the opportunities have been there for a lot of clubs.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Get better at retaining players and developing local talent.

And we have. Aside from 2013 we have a decent retention rate. Schache was an outlier. Also thanks to the academy we have locals Hipwood Andrews etc

 

[RudyBlue]

Surely Carlton have enough top 10 draft picks on their list without getting more than 1 a year.

Absolutely agree. We've picked up more than enough 'talent' in the last 3 drafts, and we'll likely get more in the door this year.

Would be more than happy to put our 2019 1st rounder and some cash on the table at the end of this year.

Atm we just need to stick to the plan we set out on at the end of 2015 and block out the external noise, as the best clubs do.

 

[Kanga Commando]

Stepien rule.

Up to a point. Stupidity on the other hand knows no bounds... Carlton recruitment as highlighted by NavyBlueTJ35 a case in point.

Actually, I should put my own view forward. Frankly, if clubs are stupid, so be it. It really does take a long time to recover, but we can't dumb the rest of the league down because some clubs aren't up to it.

Socialism / equalisation is there for the taking ( in financial as well as playing list form ). If they can't make the most of that ), they will just have to wallow in obscurity.