Does it take too long for clubs to rebuild their lists?

[madmug]

I listened to that conversation as well. My overall feel on it is the last thing we want is more "AFL manufactured outcomes". We have equalisation measures, we have the draft, a salary cap etc etc. The mechanisms are there to rebuild. The one thing we had to learn growing up was resilience. And the beauty of sport is the unpredictable outcomes.
I have no issue with shorter game times if it helps the athletes. I haver no issue with a 17 round season and then finals. But shortening seasons or game times as young people have shorter attention spans, or further manipulation of the system to see teams have success just because they haven't won anything for a few years, doesn't sit well with me.

The AFL is all about 'manufactured' outcomes. The draft, the salary cap, the handouts. It all helps reward mediocrity.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Whilst I have huge sympathy for Carlton, Melbourne and Brisbane fans, as a Pom who only moved here 5 years ago, can I say that AFL has created the conditions for the one of the fairest competitions in the world...and you need to be careful what you wish for.

Contrast this to soccer, where the (1) establishment of the EPL in 1992 changed how money was allocated (i.e. the big clubs got richer), (2) the introduction of unrestricted and uncompensated free agency, and (3) ever-increasing TV rights deals means that there are only ever 3-4 contenders for the title in any season (barring the once in 50 year miracle that was Leicester's title three years ago). My team, Ipswich, were the third most successful side in English soccer in the 1970s, thanks to a combination of brilliant coaching and investment in an academy before anyone knew what an academy even was....yet we now prepare for our 17th consecutive season as a mid-table Championship side (one tier below the EPL). The best a supporter of a club like Ipswich can hope for is to fluke promotion into the EPL and then scrape an existence finishing 10th - 15th in the EPL year after year (effectively what West Brom and Stoke have done for the last 10 years - until this year). Hell, even a team the size of Liverpool are now approaching 30 years since their last title.

Success in AFL is simply down to a combination of good management, good drafting and luck. If we take Freo as an example, we've had bad luck in that 2-3 of our first round picks in the last few years have had to retire early due to illness and injury (Morabito, Pitt), and if we bounce back relatively quickly - and the signs are looking promising - I'm sure the narrative will be that our top-end drafts (especially this year) are the reason. But, the fact is that if we do bounce back into regular finals contention soon the success will be built on good drafting outside of the first round - Walters (53), Fyfe (20), Neale (58), Darcy (38), Blakely (34), A Pearce (37), Luke Ryan (66), Banfield (Rookie), Crowden (59); combined with good free trading (Matera, Wilson, Hamling, McCarthy, Bennell - please please).

The fact is that Geelong and the Hawks are some of the best managed sports teams going, and whilst I'm sure we are all bored of seeing them in finals contention year after year, at least they're not there due to anything other than good management. I can still remember when Chelsea and Man City were very average Tier 2 basketcases - but hey everyone loves a billionaire owner...

Excellent post Barbie

The comparison to EPL is interesting. I think that hand on heart, all supporters can acknowlege that there is nothing systemic that prevents them from winning a flag in the next 5 years.
We probably underestimate how important that is

 

[captain blood 17]

The AFL is all about 'manufactured' outcomes. The draft, the salary cap, the handouts. It all helps reward mediocrity.

Well in defence of the AFL (i feel sick saying that), we also can’t go back to the dark days of the 80’s either. In the mid to late nineties we still had teams nearly folding or merging.
I never want to see another Fitzroy again (happy for the 2 new love childs to go though).
So the measures are there for good reason, but when King craps on about how clubs are struggling etc, he doesn’t talk about recent history where every club has now played in GF’s since 1999 barring the 2 latest teams.
So they have all had opportunities to win the ultimate success. It’s not all that bad.


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[blood_lust]

Obviously expansion, and toying with the rules too much has distorted things which both look to be coming to an end now.

In terms of changes the afl should focus on better coaching and recruiting standards across the board to even the programs up that way. This very much underway as well.

so I'll say no, dont rock the boat - but yes - the past decade has been painful for a few teams and there's a few different factors outside their own poor decisions affecting that.

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[Blue1980]

Absolutely.

A well-run club shouldn't have to bottom out. There's ample evidence of this. I wish we didn't need to 'bottom out' as such, but our list was in diabolical shape in 2015. Wooden-spooners, top 4 for average age and paying 100% of the cap.

The club's heavily invested in the draft the past 3 years, we just need to stick it out.

Well you only bottom out when you absolutely have to, and we did

 

[a_fighting_fury]

Jeez, what changed at Richmond between late August 2016 and late March 2017? Something that won them a flag.

Culture?

 

[madmug]

Well in defence of the AFL (i feel sick saying that), we also can’t go back to the dark days of the 80’s either. In the mid to late nineties we still had teams nearly folding or merging.
I never want to see another Fitzroy again (happy for the 2 new love childs to go though).
So the measures are there for good reason, but when King craps on about how clubs are struggling etc, he doesn’t talk about recent history where every club has now played in GF’s since 1999 barring the 2 latest teams.
So they have all had opportunities to win the ultimate success. It’s not all that bad.


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So you see it as a good thing that no matter how poorly run a club is, it'll get handouts & players to its hearts content?. Then once in a long while things fall into place & a club gets a premiership. Some clubs are better at it, yet the bad ones are left to plod along with no compulsion to change.

All the while the AFL is sucking the life out of community football. Its spending a fortune on executive wages, huge support to a host of clubs both new & old. Spending a fortune on elite development but SFA on community club development. It spends on AFLx & anything that suits the AFLs whim, but the guts of Australian Rules is struggling.

How does that affect the future of the game?

 

[captain blood 17]

So you see it as a good thing that no matter how poorly run a club is, it'll get handouts & players to its hearts content?. Then once in a long while things fall into place & a club gets a premiership. Some clubs are better at it, yet the bad ones are left to plod along with no compulsion to change.

All the while the AFL is sucking the life out of community football. Its spending a fortune on executive wages, huge support to a host of clubs both new & old. Spending a fortune on elite development but SFA on community club development. It spends on AFLx & anything that suits the AFLs whim, but the guts of Australian Rules is struggling.

How does that affect the future of the game?

The future of the game is another topic altogether. And i’m not just talking tassie.
But on this topic, the AFL is beholden to ensure all clubs have the opportunity for success. And since 1999 every club has had the opportunity excluding the 2 newest clubs. As has been pointed out by another poster, it’s already the fairest league in the world.
I don’t think we have to do anymore. The results are there. Carlton have never recovered from the salary cap rorting. They are probably the main ones. And this isn’t the place to talk about the sanctions that could/should of been put on the bombers.


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[Isaac Cumming No 1]

The future of the game is another topic altogether. And i’m not just talking tassie.
But on this topic, the AFL is beholden to ensure all clubs have the opportunity for success. And since 1999 every club has had the opportunity excluding the 2 newest clubs. As has been pointed out by another poster, it’s already the fairest league in the world.
I don’t think we have to do anymore. The results are there. Carlton have never recovered from the salary cap rorting. They are probably the main ones. And this isn’t the place to talk about the sanctions that could/should of been put on the bombers.


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Can't speak for GC fans, but we aren't bitching about the lack of opportunity.

 

[GreyCrow]

There is definitely a case for stability and smart recruiting. Having a strong administration and board is IMO just as important as having a strong footy department. At the same time, I tend to agree with Rohan. A club should yield the fruits of what they plant. If a club is smart with how it is run at all levels and in all areas, I don't see why they can't become a competitive club. I disagree on the disillusionment argument too for supporters not wanting to languish through a rebuild. Richmond at one point of time was infamously labelled as 'worst than Fitzroy' at the onset of Dimma's time at the club but managed to grow it's membership numbers year on year. I think that comes down to getting fan buy in and engagement. I'm sure there would be other clubs that have increased metrics like membership numbers despite not having tangible on field success.

I think the biggest kudos is for the club management and administration as you pointed out. Richmond had a coterie group snapping at the heels, you had finished 13th and everyone (myself included) didnt think Hardwick had it in him to win a flag. 12 months later everyone has egg on their face except the Board and the club

Sometimes you just have to be able to see the trees

 

[madmug]

The future of the game is another topic altogether. And i’m not just talking tassie.
But on this topic, the AFL is beholden to ensure all clubs have the opportunity for success. And since 1999 every club has had the opportunity excluding the 2 newest clubs. As has been pointed out by another poster, it’s already the fairest league in the world.
I don’t think we have to do anymore. The results are there. Carlton have never recovered from the salary cap rorting. They are probably the main ones. And this isn’t the place to talk about the sanctions that could/should of been put on the bombers.


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The grass roots of the game is the future. It always was & will always be. To ignore it is to undermine the long term health of the game itself.

I see people griping about concessions to new clubs, But not to the older clubs which continually struggle. They then then moan when anyone talks about the games integrity with the GF only being at some clubs home ground.

Its the continual griping of some on here about their clubs being hard done by, yet they exist & are given money & players. Their future is assured. Unlike the rest of the footy world.

 

[rampar]

The afl need to hand out priority picks far more readily. Imho of course.

 

[captain blood 17]

The grass roots of the game is the future. It always was & will always be. To ignore it is to undermine the long term health of the game itself.

I see people griping about concessions to new clubs, But not to the older clubs which continually struggle. They then then moan when anyone talks about the games integrity with the GF only being at some clubs home ground.

Its the continual griping of some on here about their clubs being hard done by, yet they exist & are given money & players. Their future is assured. Unlike the rest of the footy world.

Agree, and the state of footy is pretty sick at grassroots level. Juniors numbers in critical age groups are dropping, but this issue is not only football. Other sports are experiencing the same. But, they will bullshit the numbers using auskick etc and tell us all is swell. They have a corporate brand to protect after all.
The old clubs have recieved concessions, swans had cola, AFL ensured Roos went to Melbourne, clubs can apply for priority picks, i could go on, but, they have all had the opportunity for a flag within the last 20 years.


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[Blue1980]

Carlton is interesting case study.

What seems to be killing them is not only poor drafting last few years but the fact they have lost so much senior talent with Betts, Gartlett, Touhy and Gibbs.

Youll tread water forever with that mix

People are forgetting 2 distinct periods when we lost players, malthouse era and post malthouse.

Malthouse was stupid and let talented guys like Betts, Robinson, Laidler and Garlett go for nothing, just out of spite in the latter 3 cases as he didn’t like them. Very moronic list management, you don’t let talent go for nothing. (Waite also left in this time, but he wanted out)

Then with the list rooted we had no choice but to try and go to the draft and get young talent in from other clubs to get a new group coming through. In this time we have got good returns on all of Menzel, Henderson, Bell, Tuohy and Gibbs.

Menzel got us Plowman and Kerridge (plus 3 other GWS guys)

Hendo got us McKay (who knows how that turns out)

Bell got us half of Charlie Curnow (success)

Tuohy enabled us to get Marchbank and Pickett (looks good so far, as long as both can stay fit)

Gibbs got us O’Brien and Kennedy (way too early to tell, Kennedy playing injured and hasn’t even played 20 games)

We won’t have a clear view of whether this has post salty malty period has worked for at least another 2-3 years. No doubt it’s effecting is short term (though im sure we still wouldn’t be great now if we still had the players we have lost since 2015)

 

[Gavin Excell]

People are forgetting 2 distinct periods when we lost players, malthouse era and post malthouse.

Malthouse was stupid and let talented guys like Betts, Robinson, Laidler and Garlett go for nothing, just out of spite in the latter 3 cases as he didn’t like them. Very moronic list management, you don’t let talent go for nothing. (Waite also left in this time, but he wanted out)

Then with the list rooted we had no choice but to try and go to the draft and get young talent in from other clubs to get a new group coming through. In this time we have got good returns on all of Menzel, Henderson, Bell, Tuohy and Gibbs.

Menzel got us Plowman and Kerridge (plus 3 other GWS guys)

Hendo got us McKay (who knows how that turns out)

Bell got us half of Charlie Curnow (success)

Tuohy enabled us to get Marchbank and Pickett (looks good so far, as long as both can stay fit)

Gibbs got us O’Brien and Kennedy (way too early to tell, Kennedy playing injured and hasn’t even played 20 games)

We won’t have a clear view of whether this has post salty malty period has worked for at least another 2-3 years. No doubt it’s effecting is short term (though im sure we still wouldn’t be great now if we still had the players we have lost since 2015)

At what point is Mackay considered a bust?

 

[Blue1980]

Carlton have let go of so many good AFL standard players that it was always going to be a big re build. Who was the list manager at the time?

Looking back at your list management of your club the players that could have been on your list is massive, so many have succeeded elsewhere. Maybe its down to sheer luck or development of players but with Jacobs, Betts, Kennedy and others all being All Australian, you recruited talented players but never got to see the best of them.

Easy to look back now but the recruiters did pick up quality players the list just wasn't managed well.

Instead of getting Judd and picking up Kruezer you keep Kennedy and jacobs, get cotchin (over kruzer) to play alongside murphy and Gibbs and still have that pick 3 (from the judd trade) and the list looks more balanced with good players.

Every club could say things like that, Hawthorn could have Joel selwood but went for Mitch thorp.

Our recruitment wasn’t has from 2002-08 actually, and that formed the basis for the side which made the finals 09-11.

Thing is it all went to crap when we tried to either add experience in or draft from 09-14 (best trades were getting first round pick and Hendo for fevola, and effectively getting docherty for Hampson).

 

[Blue1980]

At what point is Mackay considered a bust?

He seems injury prone, just hope that changes soon. He only turned 20 in December, but you would want at least signs of something this season and to be a solid contributor next season.

I’m not holding my breath and if I had to guess I don’t think he will make it. Rumour is Bolts doesn’t think he’s hard enough at it

Schache is a similar age and seems to have a similar problem, what is it with recent softish big guys? Do they just dominate due to size when their younger then can’t hack it?

 

[Gavin Excell]

He seems injury prone, just hope that changes soon. He only turned 20 in December, but you would want at least signs of something this season and to be a solid contributor next season.

I’m not holding my breath and if I had to guess I don’t think he will make it. Rumour is Bolts doesn’t think he’s hard enough at it

Schache is a similar age and seems to have a similar problem, what is it with recent softish big guys? Do they just dominate due to size when their younger then can’t hack it?

Hard to say

Schache sounds like he is miles away

 

[NZ_Tiger]

It takes so long for a club to rebuild because we draft kids at such a young age. It also means that there is very little room for error in drafting as it takes such a long time to develop that talent.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

look like it but not quite.

our drafting and development* in that era was well below par, ratten had the team doing well but it was dead wood in the next generation, hence the 42 player turnover in the past three years and the lack of decent 'middle aged' players (23-27) running around now.

When was the “next generation”? Ratten’s last year was 2012 and the list included Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Kreuzer, Betts, Henderson, Waite, Garlett, Curnow, Casboult and Touhy. It’s now six years later and all of those players are still very capable, quality senior AFL players. So it’s not as if the team had no future six years ago.

The whole losing of their shit around Ratten and the Malthouse debacle ruined any chance of success.

 

[Sherrinator]

I think the top 5-7 players are critical for clubs. For example, Brisbane could easily be 2 wins up and this thread be non-applicable had our best players not been either: injured, ill, out-of-form/confidence. When your 18-20 year olds are becoming your playmakers, it is clear your upper level of depth is indeed not deep enough to challenge consistently.

 

[Leeda]

St Kilda and Melbourne are the obvious complainants/hypervigilant in this interrogation/derivation/horoscope.

 

[TeeJay Blue]

Carlton have never recovered from the salary cap rorting.

Yes they did. As a matter of fact they recovered from it 10 years ago.
Practically everybody involved at the club during that time has long disappeared. They were punished for a few years and moved on from it.

 

[captain blood 17]

Yes they did. As a matter of fact they recovered from it 10 years ago.
Practically everybody involved at the club during that time has long disappeared. They were punished for a few years and moved on from it.

Relax Hos, the point is about performance. Carlton is the worst performed team of the new century.
The punishment you guys copped smashed your club. And on the field you have never truely recovered up to this point.


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[TeeJay Blue]

When was the “next generation”? Ratten’s last year was 2012 and the list included Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Kreuzer, Betts, Henderson, Waite, Garlett, Curnow, Casboult and Touhy. It’s now six years later and all of those players are still very capable, quality senior AFL players. So it’s not as if the team had no future six years ago.

The whole losing of their shit around Ratten and the Malthouse debacle ruined any chance of success.

Our future was screwed before we knew it. The drafting was some of the worst ever recorded in footy history. It wasn't a case of bad luck. It was a case of ignorance.

Though sacking Ratten was pretty stupid as he had barely laid a foot wrong. It was simple impatience from the board and the media. And we were plagued by injuries through that entire year. I think about 12 players had their seasons cut short, while a few stars had heavy stints on the sidelines.