Double-Death-Riding Carlton 2019 Edition - READ THE OP

How many games will Carlton win?


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Geoffa32

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Really? i thought is was good value. I'd have mortgaged the house for $1.80!

Okay, not really, but considering our list, no camp, no injuries, Brouch back, Smithers back, favourable draw, etc etc i'd think we were very well placed

Perhaps i should look at the draws last year's top 8 clubs had
Top 8? We should finish top four.

Last year everything went wrong and yet we were one game from the eight.

We are a genuine Premiership contender IMO.

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Golumless

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I think it depends on how you view the draw and what games we should win.

I see the first 8 as winnable, the next 7 as very tricky, the last 8 having 5 wins.

You would want 13 games to seal a top 8 chance. I am not saying I dont think we will make the 8, just that I wish the odds were better thatn $1.62 I dont think they reflect the difficulty. I would have wanted $1.70 or more to unload personally.
You're talking about one of the strongest lists in the league from champion data, a very easy draw (there are only 3 games I'm not confident with), and it looks like a rather easy fix to get back to top 8 footballing side (up forward 50 pressure a fair bit).

Really with that draw, top 4 is par for us so $1.62 may actually be a tad generous.
 

deaneus

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You're talking about one of the strongest lists in the league from champion data, a very easy draw (there are only 3 games I'm not confident with), and it looks like a rather easy fix to get back to top 8 footballing side (up forward 50 pressure a fair bit).

Really with that draw, top 4 is par for us so $1.62 may actually be a tad generous.
See, that's what i thought. But i also agree, Carlton are way under priced. $250 for the premiership, get real. $2,500 more like it.

I think the real bet is how many wins they'll get - 0, 1, 2, 3?

Will add a poll.
 

GROTTO

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What are Carltons odds for finishing top 17?
Sportsbet Odds.

Carlton for wooden spoon $3.75 which is ~ 27% chance of winning the spoon (least wins in 2019)

Therefore the odds of not winning the spoon is (1-0.27) = 73% = Odds of finishing in the top 17.

For the record, GCS are short priced at $1.45 of winning the spoon ~ 68%

deaneus
 

Donkey Magoo

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Sportsbet Odds.

Carlton for wooden spoon $3.75 which is ~ 27% chance of winning the spoon (least wins in 2019)

Therefore the odds of not winning the spoon is (1-0.27) = 73% = Odds of finishing in the top 17.

For the record, GCS are short priced at $1.45 of winning the spoon ~ 68%

deaneus
Interestingly. That’s close to the percentage of spoons won by Carlton this millennium.
 

deaneus

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Spy hunter and defender of the crown..top top games
Defender of the Crown was fun

also

i have Dosbox installed on my computer, and Bard's Tale 2

If i could rename characters, i would change them all to Crows players for fun...
 

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Eiffel 65

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Sportsbet Odds.

Carlton for wooden spoon $3.75 which is ~ 27% chance of winning the spoon (least wins in 2019)

Therefore the odds of not winning the spoon is (1-0.27) = 73% = Odds of finishing in the top 17.

For the record, GCS are short priced at $1.45 of winning the spoon ~ 68%

deaneus
There's a small chance we could surprise a few but it's really hard to see based on our performance in 2018.
 

CrowInFiji

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Really? i thought is was good value. I'd have mortgaged the house for $1.80!

Okay, not really, but considering our list, no camp, no injuries, Brouch back, Smithers back, favourable draw, etc etc i'd think we were very well placed

Perhaps i should look at the draws last year's top 8 clubs had
Well we were until you went ahead and jinxed all of those things
 

1970crow

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You're talking about one of the strongest lists in the league from champion data, a very easy draw (there are only 3 games I'm not confident with), and it looks like a rather easy fix to get back to top 8 footballing side (up forward 50 pressure a fair bit).

Really with that draw, top 4 is par for us so $1.62 may actually be a tad generous.
Our major risk is that Talia will be underdone come round 1 and word was that Harto not progressing as expected from his knee(s?). Keath has been a bit injury prone himself and we’re down to him and Otto, otherwise we’ll be blooding youth out of position back there. Right now that’s the only thing stopping me from declaring us a near certainty for top 4. Getting Saunders means we minimise the risk of dialing back our workloads too much, so fitness/injury issues should be resolved. I think the players have moved on from the coaches blaming them for losing the GF courtesy of mental weakness. Crouch and Smith back, plus Milera and Gooch going up levels. Tex, Betts, Sloane and Sauce can’t give us any less than they did last year plus a much easier draw. If nothing else had changed, the draw alone gets us back into the 8. It’s just the KPD issue that needs to progress in the right direction as we head towards round 1.
 

Geoffa32

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Our major risk is that Talia will be underdone come round 1 and word was that Harto not progressing as expected from his knee(s?). Keath has been a bit injury prone himself and we’re down to him and Otto, otherwise we’ll be blooding youth out of position back there. Right now that’s the only thing stopping me from declaring us a near certainty for top 4. Getting Saunders means we minimise the risk of dialing back our workloads too much, so fitness/injury issues should be resolved. I think the players have moved on from the coaches blaming them for losing the GF courtesy of mental weakness. Crouch and Smith back, plus Milera and Gooch going up levels. Tex, Betts, Sloane and Sauce can’t give us any less than they did last year plus a much easier draw. If nothing else had changed, the draw alone gets us back into the 8. It’s just the KPD issue that needs to progress in the right direction as we head towards round 1.
Round one against Hawthorn could be handy given their lack of real KPFs.

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1970crow

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There's a small chance we could surprise a few but it's really hard to see based on our performance in 2018.
I will be surprised if the bottom 3 isn't Carlton, Saints and Gold Coast. There's no finishing order that would surprise me, but I would be surprised if any of those 3 improved and/or another side went backwards far enough for any of those 3 to climb above them.
 

Geoffa32

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I will be surprised if the bottom 3 isn't Carlton, Saints and Gold Coast. There's no finishing order that would surprise me, but I would be surprised if any of those 3 improved and/or another side went backwards far enough for any of those 3 to climb above them.
For me it is daylight between Carlton/GC and then StKilda.

I reckon the Saints are a better side and have improved this off season, than the clear bottom two.

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WaynesWorld19

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I will be surprised if the bottom 3 isn't Carlton, Saints and Gold Coast. There's no finishing order that would surprise me, but I would be surprised if any of those 3 improved and/or another side went backwards far enough for any of those 3 to climb above them.
The other team may have been Freo ......but they also look as if they'll improve .....6 more winning games is a lot to get to pass WB & Freo who i think will tread water

They're certainly not going to get out of the bottom 6 , where an extra 10 wins was required .......plus with the rule changes & a quicker game, the young Carlton defense (weakness) is going to be under even more pressure

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FR0GGY

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The other team may have been Freo ......but they also look as if they'll improve .....6 more winning games is a lot to get to pass WB & Freo who i think will tread water

They're certainly not going to get out of the bottom 6 , where an extra 10 wins was required .......plus with the rule changes & a quicker game, the young Carlton defense (weakness) is going to be under even more pressure

View attachment 602741
Freo will be ok i reckon, hogan/lobb up forward, they've lost Neale but have some good young mids.
 

WaynesWorld19

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Freo will be ok i reckon, hogan up forward, they've lost Neale but have some good young mids.
Can't see them improving their ladder position ....see them holding with 8-9 wins .....Rucks are an issue, and like Carlton, have a potentially good midfield, but still inexperienced

The keys to Freo's season are the fitness of the Hill Brothers & Bennell, that give them a lot of speed ......but they need Logue to step up in defense this year
 
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