eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Essendon: Essendon went 1-1 in pre-season, losing to Richmond but defeating Geelong, but have been struck by a few injuries to potential first team players. Devon Smith impressed for the Dons in the two matches after being traded in a package that included pick 11, whilst the Package had an up and down time, but kicked a very good goal in JLT 2.
Adelaide: Adelaide also split their JLT games, defeating Fremantle first up but losing to cross town rivals Port Adelaide. Sam Gibson and Matt Crouch impressed in both games whilst Rory Atkins was also good, kicking 2 goals in the second JLT game for the 2017 runners up.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 1-4 Adelaide
Form Guide
Essendon:
Adelaide:
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $2.05
Adelaide: $1.78
Line: 5.5 ($1.92)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Adelaide
B: Mckenna- Hartley - McNiece
F: Milera - McGovern - Betts
HB: Ambrose - Hurley - Saad
HF: Lynch - Jenkins - Douglas
C: Parish - Stringer - Z Merrett
C: Atkins - Sloane - Seedsman
HF: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Daniher - Langford
HB: Laird - Talia - Gibson
F: Stewart - Hooker - Green
B: Doedee - Hartigan - Brown
R: Bellchambers - Goddard - Heppell
R: Jacobs - Crouch - Gibbs
I: McGrath - Myers - D Smith - Zaharakis
I: Crouch - Ellis-Yolmen - Kelly - Murphy
Adelaide defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line was the highlight of the 2017 season, finishing 3rd in terms of overall goals/inside 50 ratio behind the two teams in Adelaide, with an efficiency rating of 28%. Adelaide's defence was solid without being spectacular, averaging a goal 25% of the time it entered defensive 50, around the middle of the table. With Talia potentially facing a one game suspension it would be a big blow, making it tough to decide whom to play on Joe Daniher, who kicked over 60 goals last season. Cale Hooker will have a good clash with the ever reliable Kyle Hartigan, the former kicking 40 goals last season and the latter also enjoying a good year. Tom Doedee and Luke Brown will have their hands full trying to contain James Stewart and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, the pair kicking 55 goals between them last season.
Midfield/rucks battle
This is where Essendon need to show their improvement next season, given that's where they got spanked by Adelaide twice, as well as in the final, the Dons finishing 14th and 10th in clearance and contested possession differential respectively, whereas the Crows finished 4th and 6th in those statistics respectively. This is what Jake Stringer and Devon Smith have been recruited for, to bolster the midfield. However the Crows haven't been sitting idly by either, trading in former #1 draft pick Bryce Gibbs from Carlton. The big difference between the two clubs will be Adelaide's Rory Sloane and Crouch brothers as the starting midfielders compared to Essendon's Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett and David Myers in all likelihood. The ruck battle will also be tilted in Adelaide's favour, Sam Jacobs being consistently in the top 5 (even top 3) for some time now, and even if Tom Bellchambers seems to finally be injury free, Jacobs will still have an advantage.
Adelaide forward line vs Essendon defence
Essendon's defence had an enjoyable 2017 for the most part despite being under extreme pressure most weeks, they had a very high defensive efficiency rating of 23% in the last season. Adelaide were the premier offensive side last season though, kicking a goal 29% it entered inside 50. The Crows may be missing Taylor Walker which makes it easier for the Dons, Michael Hurley likely to take Josh Jenkins whilst Michael Hartley will go head-to-head with Mitch McGovern. Paddy Ambrose is the perfect match for Tom Lynch, and Ben McNiece seems to have first crack at being the small defender, and will get a tough assignment first up in Eddie Betts, who has an excellent record against Essendon.
X-Factor Player
Wayne Milera is in his third year at Adelaide and whilst he's shown some talent throughout his time there it's time to have a serious impact this season. He could get 22 touches and 5 goals, or he could get 4 touches and 0.2.
Key stat
Essendon: Clearances. Need to win this for Essendon to have any chance of knocking off the Crows, and captain Dyson Heppell needs to lead the charge
Adelaide: Defensive efficiency. When Adelaide are on their back line just repels the ball from inside their defensive fifty.
Tip
Essendon play an attractive and entertaining game, but it's simply a case of Adelaide do that except to a higher standard. Crows by 27
Essendon: Essendon went 1-1 in pre-season, losing to Richmond but defeating Geelong, but have been struck by a few injuries to potential first team players. Devon Smith impressed for the Dons in the two matches after being traded in a package that included pick 11, whilst the Package had an up and down time, but kicked a very good goal in JLT 2.
Adelaide: Adelaide also split their JLT games, defeating Fremantle first up but losing to cross town rivals Port Adelaide. Sam Gibson and Matt Crouch impressed in both games whilst Rory Atkins was also good, kicking 2 goals in the second JLT game for the 2017 runners up.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 1-4 Adelaide
Form Guide
Essendon:
Adelaide:
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $2.05
Adelaide: $1.78
Line: 5.5 ($1.92)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Adelaide
B: Mckenna- Hartley - McNiece
F: Milera - McGovern - Betts
HB: Ambrose - Hurley - Saad
HF: Lynch - Jenkins - Douglas
C: Parish - Stringer - Z Merrett
C: Atkins - Sloane - Seedsman
HF: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Daniher - Langford
HB: Laird - Talia - Gibson
F: Stewart - Hooker - Green
B: Doedee - Hartigan - Brown
R: Bellchambers - Goddard - Heppell
R: Jacobs - Crouch - Gibbs
I: McGrath - Myers - D Smith - Zaharakis
I: Crouch - Ellis-Yolmen - Kelly - Murphy
Adelaide defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line was the highlight of the 2017 season, finishing 3rd in terms of overall goals/inside 50 ratio behind the two teams in Adelaide, with an efficiency rating of 28%. Adelaide's defence was solid without being spectacular, averaging a goal 25% of the time it entered defensive 50, around the middle of the table. With Talia potentially facing a one game suspension it would be a big blow, making it tough to decide whom to play on Joe Daniher, who kicked over 60 goals last season. Cale Hooker will have a good clash with the ever reliable Kyle Hartigan, the former kicking 40 goals last season and the latter also enjoying a good year. Tom Doedee and Luke Brown will have their hands full trying to contain James Stewart and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, the pair kicking 55 goals between them last season.
Midfield/rucks battle
This is where Essendon need to show their improvement next season, given that's where they got spanked by Adelaide twice, as well as in the final, the Dons finishing 14th and 10th in clearance and contested possession differential respectively, whereas the Crows finished 4th and 6th in those statistics respectively. This is what Jake Stringer and Devon Smith have been recruited for, to bolster the midfield. However the Crows haven't been sitting idly by either, trading in former #1 draft pick Bryce Gibbs from Carlton. The big difference between the two clubs will be Adelaide's Rory Sloane and Crouch brothers as the starting midfielders compared to Essendon's Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett and David Myers in all likelihood. The ruck battle will also be tilted in Adelaide's favour, Sam Jacobs being consistently in the top 5 (even top 3) for some time now, and even if Tom Bellchambers seems to finally be injury free, Jacobs will still have an advantage.
Adelaide forward line vs Essendon defence
Essendon's defence had an enjoyable 2017 for the most part despite being under extreme pressure most weeks, they had a very high defensive efficiency rating of 23% in the last season. Adelaide were the premier offensive side last season though, kicking a goal 29% it entered inside 50. The Crows may be missing Taylor Walker which makes it easier for the Dons, Michael Hurley likely to take Josh Jenkins whilst Michael Hartley will go head-to-head with Mitch McGovern. Paddy Ambrose is the perfect match for Tom Lynch, and Ben McNiece seems to have first crack at being the small defender, and will get a tough assignment first up in Eddie Betts, who has an excellent record against Essendon.
X-Factor Player
Wayne Milera is in his third year at Adelaide and whilst he's shown some talent throughout his time there it's time to have a serious impact this season. He could get 22 touches and 5 goals, or he could get 4 touches and 0.2.
Key stat
Essendon: Clearances. Need to win this for Essendon to have any chance of knocking off the Crows, and captain Dyson Heppell needs to lead the charge
Adelaide: Defensive efficiency. When Adelaide are on their back line just repels the ball from inside their defensive fifty.
Tip
Essendon play an attractive and entertaining game, but it's simply a case of Adelaide do that except to a higher standard. Crows by 27
