Preview Essendon vs Carlton: 07/06/13, MCG, 7:40 PM

[sneakyjetta]

Eth-dog's preview​

Ethan's Observations

Essendon: Essendon struggled against Sydney in wet conditions, going in with one too many key position players in most people's opinions, but there were a few positives like Stanton's 36 possession games, Jake Carlisle's influence at both ends of the ground and Heath Hocking's job on Daniel Hannebery, but a lack of forward structure was evident

Carlton: Thrashed a hapless GWS outfit but let a Callan Ward off the leash with no Andrew Carrazzo, and that may concern Mick Malthouse with Essendon having 4 or 5 players at a similar quality or higher than Ward. Lachie Henderson is showing promise as a key forward for the blues as well, but the fact that they're playing 3 small forwards, none of whom push up into the midfield, may hamper the blues

Previous encounters: Essendon 1-3 Carlton (1 draw)

Past 5 matches

Essendon: W-L-L-W-L
Carlton: W-L-W-W-W

sportsbet odds

Essendon: $1.70
Carlton: $2.05

Possible sides

Essendon vs Carlton

B: Baguley - Hooker - Fletcher
F: Betts - Casboult - Waite
HB: Browne - Carlisle - Hibberd
HF: Garlett - Henderson - Yarran
C: Stanton - Watson - Heppell
C: Gibbs - Murphy - Cachia
HF: Zaharakis - Gumbleton - Melksham
HB: Scotland - White - Walker
F: Crameri - Ryder - Davey
B: Touhy - Jamison - Bootsma
R: Bellchambers - Hocking - Goddard
R: Kruezer - Judd - Carrazzo
I: Howlett - Myers - Winderlich
I: McLean - Armfield - Simpson
S: Jetta
S: Lucas



Essendon forward line vs Carlton defence

Interesting duel. Carlton have generally struggled with sides that have gone in with three tall forwards as one for the most part has gotten away from them with Vickery against Richmond, Hawkins against Geelong, Otten against Adelaide spring to mind, but Essendon's forward line hasn't, well, functioned. It'll be important for Essendon to shut down the run and carry from Walker, who is probably leading Carlton's B+F count right now.

midfield battle (rucks included)

Where the game is won and lost. Both boast an impressive midfield group on paper, but it's how they work that's important. Essendon have the big bodies in Watson, Howlett, Myers, Hocking, Goddard and co, but Carlton have the speed on the outside with Armfield, Lucas, Gibbs and Simpson, so it's interesting if Essendon try to win the game like they did last year by trying to "beat up" the Carlton midfield

Carlton forward line vs Essendon defence

Carlton are interesting in the way that they play 5 "pure" forwards as well as their second ruckmen, and this could make things easier for the bombers as they thoroughly smashed a side with similar sort of structure in St. Kilda. Baguley and Hibberd will be important in shutting Betts and Garlett down, and either Hardingham or Browne on Yarran. If a side can contain those three to 4 goals or less they're half way to beating Carlton

X-Factor player

Essendon's X-Factor for this week is David Zaharakis. He's fast, smart and has been in career best form so far this season. This guy can break open a game and is just playing pure football at the moment, and has been as good a recruit as Goddard from the second half of 2012.

Levi Casboult is my pick as the X-Factor for the blues. He's a big lump of a lad, entering his 4th season at Carlton and should really be starting to hit his straps as a player. He could be the key forward Carlton are hoping for to really get them into contention

Key stats for each side


Essendon:

• Contested Possessions. Carlton are 1st in CP differential for 2013 and Essendon 3rd, but Essendon can't let Carlton get it on the outside to Gibbs and Simpson
• Effective disposals. Essendon average the highest Effective disposals differential in the AFL. Can't let the small forwards of Carlton to pressure them too much

Carlton:

• Disposal efficiency. Essendon have been the #1 scoring side in the AFL from turnovers so Carlton can't let them do that
• Contested Marks. Carlton average the second fewest Contested marks in the AFL and strong contested marks are crucial to a side

My tip

Rivalry game. You can never count form in these games. Going with the heart and the head, Essendon by 6

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In: Daniher, Hurley, Browne, Howlett, Davey,
Out: Dempsey (injured), Hams (omitted), Jetta (omitted), Bell chambers(rested)

 

[gO_bOmBeRz]

Absolutely the worst game to lose Dempsey. We have Betts, Yarran, Garlett and Walker to worry about.

 

[VelvetSledge]

OUT: Dempsey (ribs), Jetta (ankle/general shite), Hams, Gumbleton
IN: Browne, Davey, Howlett, Daniher.

If Hurls is ready, then cool.

Can't drop Fletch against the scum. Can't do it.

 

[Whispering_Jack]

Out: Dempsey, Jetta, Hams, Gumbleton, Fletcher
In: Browne, Davey, Hurley, Daniher, Howlett

Fletcher??

 

[Whispering_Jack]

OUT: Dempsey (ribs), Jetta (ankle/general shite), Hams, Gumbleton
IN: Browne, Davey, Howlett, Daniher.

If Hurls is ready, then cool.

Can't drop Fletch against the scum. Can't do it.

Hirdy said Hirls was close, was training on Friday and was kicking the ball before the game..

 

[Yoda_]

My god people.. the game hasn't even been finished 10 minutes and your calling for heads already..

Mods, can we please lock this thread for now? thanks

 

[gO_bOmBeRz]

In: Hurley/Daniher, Howlett, Davey

 

[Zach Package]

looking forward to reactionary baby and bathwater stuff.

In: Hurley/Daniher, Howlett, Davey, Browne
Out: Gumbleton, Jetta, Hams, Dempsey

The only one i'd drop would be jetta, the rest would be forced

 

[VelvetSledge]

My god people.. the game hasn't even been finished 10 minutes and your calling for heads already..

Mods, can we please lock this thread for now? thanks

Could be worse, at least we're not calling for Hirdy's head.

 

[gO_bOmBeRz]

looking forward to reactionary baby and bathwater stuff.

In: Hurley/Daniher, Howlett, Davey, Dempsey
Out: Gumbleton, Jetta, Hams, Browne

The only one i'd drop would be jetta, the rest would be forced

?

 

[Zach Package]

?

flip dempsey and browne... got them in the wrong spots

 

[VelvetSledge]

?

He'll be an inclusion, then a late out for Courtney Johns

 

[Old Campaigner]

Out: Gumbleton (ankle?) Jetta (

) Hams (Omitted), Dempsey (Ribs)

 

[VelvetSledge]

Out: Gumbleton (ankle?) Jetta (

) Hams (Omitted), Dempsey (Ribs)

I WAS WAITING FOR THIS

 

[Legend Lucas]

In. Howlett and a small back if we have any
Out. Melksham hams.

 

[gO_bOmBeRz]

Out: Gumbleton, Jetta/Kommer, Hams, Dempsey

In: The Derp, Howlett, Davey, A.Browne

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Out: Dempsey, Gumbleton, Kommer, Melksham
In: Hardingham, Hurley, Davey, Howlett

 

[lamaros]

Jetta?

We're you flogs at the game? No clue.

 

[beev]

Out: Gumbleton, Kommer, Hams, Dempsey
In: Hurley, Davey, Howlett, Hardingham

 

[Rack Watts]

Out: Slow
In: Fast

 

[rines]

Out: Dempsey (only if injured), Gumbleton, Hams, Crameri (rest/niggles)
In: THE DERP, Merrett, Kav, Hurley (if fit)

 

[Donakebab]

Out: Slow
In: Fast

Out: Rain, grey skies and mud.
In: Sunshine and lollipops.

 

[sneakyjetta]

i have a bad feeling about the carlton game

 

[rines]

if we go too tall we will get smashed.. if we go too slow we will be smashed.

I just don't see who we have with enough speed to stop Betts/Garlett/Yarran.

Need our structures to be 100% and guys to be focussed.

 

[sneakyjetta]

Winderlich could play defensive fwd on yarren
baguley to take garlett
fletcher on betts