Racing February Daily Punt - Still A 100% Danny Nikolic Free Zone

[FallingLiefs]

This is mainly where speed raters get smashed. Everyone would agree the Filly was clearly superior on the day in the raw result. You can’t really debate it. But you can declare the fillies last run much better and still be on the colt here.

Race 1: Faster and superior rating AND they get 2kg claim. Somewhat unexpected at big odds, also makes it questionable to repeat given its so high a performance. (This means less for 2yos)

Race 2: Horse does it hard against the pattern and tempo. Short price perfect profile.

Hanseatic obviously didn’t rate to his top and you are backing him on improvement which to be honest was evident he had based on his last start. The Filly you are backing to hold and Hanseatic not elevate. Yeah if there was a big gap you can look to the time and call it but it’s tight. Gut feel without rating the races is I’d be on the Filly because I’m never on that Hanseatic type. Price differential too large at this stage.

If Hanseatic wins everyone goes hah times mean nothing but it’s on the wall he’s a deserved fave.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Anyone know much about Mugatoo going around at R5 in Randwick tomorrow?

Heard he invented the piano key necktie

 

[onebillsdrive]

Anyone know much about Mugatoo going around at R5 in Randwick tomorrow?

Being set for Sydney cup I think .....import who won first up

 

[iluvparis]

Now $2.50 after drawing disastrously in 1

Laughable - step in.

Reminds me of when Barrier 1 was a bad draw for Winx in her first Cox Plate. If he jumps well he is going to settle much much closer than he has previously and if he produces the same finish he will absolutely belt them.

 

[iluvparis]

Rather he drew out and take luck/inferior part of the track out of it, but happy to just take the bigger price and find out. If they run along a bit it probably won't matter where he gets to, gaps will open up.

This - was thinking back last night - who was the last 'unlucky' Blue Diamond horse to lose because it got strung up in traffic back on the inside? Legit can't even think of one.

 

[iluvparis]

Anyone know much about Mugatoo going around at R5 in Randwick tomorrow?

?? It's already run here and and won at a distance that looks way too short of its optimum trip.

 

[iluvparis]

If Hanseatic wins everyone goes hah times mean nothing but it’s on the wall he’s a deserved fave.

The fact you think he is deserved fave proves they don't

 

[Gavin Excell]

This - was thinking back last night - who was the last 'unlucky' Blue Diamond horse to lose because it got strung up in traffic back on the inside? Legit can't even think of one.

That’s because majority of field is making up numbers.

 

[Gavin Excell]

This is mainly where speed raters get smashed. Everyone would agree the Filly was clearly superior on the day in the raw result. You can’t really debate it. But you can declare the fillies last run much better and still be on the colt here.

Race 1: Faster and superior rating AND they get 2kg claim. Somewhat unexpected at big odds, also makes it questionable to repeat given its so high a performance. (This means less for 2yos)

Race 2: Horse does it hard against the pattern and tempo. Short price perfect profile.

Hanseatic obviously didn’t rate to his top and you are backing him on improvement which to be honest was evident he had based on his last start. The Filly you are backing to hold and Hanseatic not elevate. Yeah if there was a big gap you can look to the time and call it but it’s tight. Gut feel without rating the races is I’d be on the Filly because I’m never on that Hanseatic type. Price differential too large at this stage.

If Hanseatic wins everyone goes hah times mean nothing but it’s on the wall he’s a deserved fave.

Letzbeglam’s win was impressive.
As an outsider I was waiting for it to be swamped but despite racing wide and going for home I thought way to early, it won easily.
Even it’s trainer was a little surprised by its performance. An article I read yesterday suggested that Bussetin Young reckon their colt - Tagaloa- has the more scope for improvement. Don’t know if that means the filly has peaked or if they are talking over the longer term.

On a side note they are travelling well that stable. Seem to be knocking up winners left right and centre at the moment

 

[AEKBOMBERS]

Maher & Eustace have 6 runners. Can use one of those to keep Hanseatic in a pocket

 

[TBellicious]

That’s because majority of field is making up numbers.

Yep. Also their all at their first time at 1200 in a high pressure race.
Agree with clutchy re laying Rulership should he stay second pick

 

[iluvparis]

Maher & Eustace have 6 runners. Can use one of those to keep Hanseatic in a pocket

They have to be fast enough to jump and get in front of him or last long enough to hold him in there though.

 

[54Dogs]

Speed is always hot in this race, which opens up the field. Gate not a worry at all

 

[TBellicious]

Could we see something similar on Saturday?

 

[iluvparis]

Could we see something similar on Saturday?

Yes - minus the Waterhouse horse way out in front.

I think Alinghi was my fave ever 2yo

 

[Gavin Excell]

Yes - minus the Waterhouse horse way out in front.

I think Alinghi was my fave ever 2yo

Not Miracles of Life?

 

[Gavin Excell]

Leifs- Regal Power over 1800m in the Peter Young. Any show?

Doesn’t seem a deep race

 

[iluvparis]

Leifs- Regal Power over 1800m in the Peter Young. Any show?

Doesn’t seem a deep race

Not many of the Peters horses have measured up of late but if he can't be competitive in this you may as well ship him straight back to WA as it looks like being a dire field.

Disappointing no Southern France - maybe they are going Oz Cup first up?

 

[AEKBOMBERS]

They have to be fast enough to jump and get in front of him or last long enough to hold him in there though.

That could be the hard part

 

[FallingLiefs]

Leifs- Regal Power over 1800m in the Peter Young. Any show?

Doesn’t seem a deep race

Finally got to a G1 level last start over 2100. Beaten by tempo over 1800. Still likely has improvement to come I was surprised to see him so short in what is an Australian cup preview.

 

[iluvparis]

Finally got to a G1 level last start over 2100. Beaten by tempo over 1800. Still likely has improvement to come I was surprised to see him so short in what is an Australian cup preview.

The race looks like being utter dogshit - no surprise he has come up this price - if he can't win this ship him back West.

 

[54Dogs]

Yes - minus the Waterhouse horse way out in front.

I think Alinghi was my fave ever 2yo

This

 

[FallingLiefs]

The race looks like being utter dogshit - no surprise he has come up this price - if he can't win this ship him back West.

So are you saying he can’t win or can’t lose?

 

[mcnulty]

They have to be fast enough to jump and get in front of him or last long enough to hold him in there though.

Miracles of Life comes to mind. Inside draw and fave being tagged but other horses simply not going well enough to hold her in. And bear in mind the jock had about 3 metro starts in her life.

A negative ride the biggest danger, five pairs back on the fence would have me worried, but surely Curries aware of this. Push forward from the start.

 

[iluvparis]

So are you saying he can’t win or can’t lose?

No I am saying the Peters horses haven't matched it over here of late. I expect that to be the same with RP. I don't think he can win. This race is so poor that if my feeling is right - you can just ship him back West.

Do you understand now?