Autopsy Geelong leaves Sydney with 2 points - who wants to watch the replay...

[RegHickeyStand]

My take is we were lucky to walk away with 2 points.
South Melbourne came into this game having hit form. Don't underestimate the thrashing it gave last week to WestCoast. They would have pounded most sides. They were so determined to beat us. I couldn't see all their running from a TV screen, but for the first half they had 4 players at least around the ball at all times, outnumbering us most of the time. The Swans must have been gut running all over the place. And you know what happens when the coach gets a team to do that? Points instead of goals, and missed shot 15 metres out. Jelly legs syndrome, I think. Anyway, they caught our backline out with their foot skills. And lay off Sav! You think he was minding space and the coach told him not to do that? The Swans out played us with passing into the 50 and caught out EVERY SINGLE BACKMAN on our side during the game. Thats unless Sav is on every single forward on the opposition. Tanner Bruhn shows a lot of promise. Why hasn't anyone taught him to kick?! Sorry, I meant, kick to a team mate.

 

[catempire]

Structurally, I don't like having O.Henry, Rohan and Stengle in the same team, too many high impact low possession type forwards. I'm worried that Stengle is carrying an injury, there are times early in games were he seems gassed after a quick play and O'Henry has to get move involved in general, too much tunnel vision over his finishing, our players are generally more well rounded. One of those three has to get on their bike and play a lot higher up the ground especially in the absence of Cameron.

Excellent post until this. The mix is good with Cameron there who gets on his bike, along with of course Close and Miers. The the three of them do enough running for themselves plus three Stewart Dews.

Rohan, Henry and Stengle bring other important traits.

 

[Play it Sam]

My take is we were lucky to walk away with 2 points.
South Melbourne came into this game having hit form. Don't underestimate the thrashing it gave last week to WestCoast. They would have pounded most sides. They were so determined to beat us. I couldn't see all their running from a TV screen, but for the first half they had 4 players at least around the ball at all times, outnumbering us most of the time. The Swans must have been gut running all over the place. And you know what happens when the coach gets a team to do that? Points instead of goals, and missed shot 15 metres out. Jelly legs syndrome, I think. Anyway, they caught our backline out with their foot skills. And lay off Sav! You think he was minding space and the coach told him not to do that? The Swans out played us with passing into the 50 and caught out EVERY SINGLE BACKMAN on our side during the game. Thats unless Sav is on every single forward on the opposition. Tanner Bruhn shows a lot of promise. Why hasn't anyone taught him to kick?! Sorry, I meant, kick to a team mate.

Guarding space doesnt mean not having the nouse to attack the player he's closest too about to take possession of the the incoming ball.
Then blaming everyone else, which tells you they have responsibility other than space, and it wasnt his. School yard stuff.
But I get your drift, unfortunately we place more blame on the one who looks like he has no clue other than flying.
He'll get more chances, just as Bruhn will settle and come on.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Actually do we have any up and foming half back flankers in the wings?

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Mullin. I also think riccardi could be a quite good hb/winger in time but he needs to put on size he isnt afl ready physically.

 

[Play it Sam]

Mullin. I also think riccardi could be a quite good hb/winger in time but he needs to put on size he isnt afl ready physically.

Won't that be something? Not sure I'm ready for the flashbacks/laughs old man time will bring with that.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The inside 50 conceded and consequently Marks inside 50 conceded were directly caused by the structural imbalance, in affect we were playing 17 on 18 when we were trying to attack from D50. Having the extra tall defender robbed us of an avenue moving the ball from D50, we kept turning over the ball one kick from D50. Without Cameron and with Duncan and Smith being weak in the air, their keys had a lot less ground to cover, historically we used Blicavs, Menegola and a fit Dangerfield to be provide those extra outlets from a long D50 kick, In theory Sav should have been available to receive these bailout kicks but he underperform we when his on the offensive side of a marking contest relative to his size and athleticism and is useless when it gets brought to ground, in the cases we he would make it, he is offensively limited, which makes his kick or the next kick in the chain easier to be intercepted. All night they found space in that half distant kick hitting up a target 40 metres out, meaning we were getting burnt on the lead after a turnover.

Ultimately to win games teams can either win it back at the contest or win it back on the intercept, good teams do both. Teams that rely on interception (especially defensive marking interception) need to move the ball better than those that win it at the contest.

With the team as selected we were always going to struggle to win it at the contest, we have a too many missing/underdone. Our intercept game was non-functional for the first half on the match, in theory Sav should supercharge our intercepting being a tall athletic key defender who plays as a +1 positionally, in practice they played around him and he killed our ball movement efficiency. He was a non factor for all but a couple of desperate moments just before he was subbed off.

Beyond blaming Sav for all of our problems, we do need more from our midfield group. I want to pull Holmes out of the inside midfield rotations, he doesn't get clean use of the ball around the stoppage. He does his best work running into space and kicking long. I want us to treat him as an Issac Smith style winger. Last year his fat side running was such a difference making, he'd go from being a plus 1 in defensive to providing an outlet for a switch in a blink of an eye. They shouldn't have selected Danger, he is clearly still hampered by injury, we would have been better without him in his current condition. With O'Connor out, they may have felt that they were light on options to pull in there. We also need to get another marking option in transition, not sure if Menegola can still be that player, if he can't then give Knevitt a shot, he was starting to build form before we dumped him to the VFL, he is also getting more inside mid time at VFL level than he was previously.

Structurally, I don't like having O.Henry, Rohan and Stengle in the same team, too many high impact low possession type forwards. I'm worried that Stengle is carrying an injury, there are times early in games were he seems gassed after a quick play and O'Henry has to get move involved in general, too much tunnel vision over his finishing, our players are generally more well rounded. One of those three has to get on their bike and play a lot higher up the ground especially in the absence of Cameron.

I agree with all of that. Can i point out i think you will see holmes play a lot more wing later this year or next year-atm we are hamstring by midfield injuries and have to play him inside bc we are short on inside mids. By next year you should have guthrie back and bowes should be fitter (after hopefully less injuries than this year) and clark should be fit to play games, knevitt will be more developed physically (he will be a good inside mid once he has size) which changes the balance. Smith wont go on next year and then holmes can play more outside. Right now we are plugging holes as best we can.

 

[Vdubs]

Meh.

We've played 4 games at home so far during the first 16 rounds (75% win rate) and 11 away (27% win rate). That's a lot less than St Kilda, Essendon, Adelaide and others just ahead of us.

5 of the last 8 rounds we play in Geelong. We'll finish where we deserve to.

What is extremely evident is that we are a poor side interstate. So winning a Victorian EF and then losing an interstate SF is probably the most likely outcome.

Many assumptions there.
Let's play NM
Then Bombers, although at home, this will not be a lay-down misere.
The highlighted is spot-on.

 

[Lana]

Excellent post until this. The mix is good with Cameron there who gets on his bike, along with of course Close and Miers. The the three of them do enough running for themselves plus three Stewart Dews.

Rohan, Henry and Stengle bring other important traits.

They certainty do, all three have been clutch at key points in games this year. But I've never really valued finishing in on itself, some players can create something from nothing, beat the percentages by a bit, but to me nothing in more reliable than good build up play. In AFL high workrate and good skills is a pre-requisite. We have skills in spades, we're older, hurt and had a mediocre pre-season. Yet our best two wins this year came from pure gut effort. My aim would be to do what ever we can structurally to hide our work rate issues, what ever remains skill wise will be more then enough.

 

[Lana]

I agree with all of that. Can i point out i think you will see holmes play a lot more wing later this year or next year-atm we are hamstring by midfield injuries and have to play him inside bc we are short on inside mids. By next year you should have guthrie back and bowes should be fitter (after hopefully less injuries than this year) and clark should be fit to play games, knevitt will be more developed physically (he will be a good inside mid once he has size) which changes the balance. Smith wont go on next year and then holmes can play more outside. Right now we are plugging holes as best we can.

I get our current woes but I think his selection in the midfield is independent of them, the rhetoric that came from the club before the season about him, that they see him as a potential dominant inside mid. Without analytics I have no evidence, but I feel as if his clearances when him wins them have been of a poor quality.

 

[Stocks_go_Up]

The reality is our midfield is average at best - we aren't getting quality forward entries... The change from last year is stark unfortunately - we are making basic skill errors and all players are well below last years form.. Duncan can hardly walk, Danger is well off his best and our replacement mids are just not up to the standard of other teams. It sucks but we deserve to be where we are on the ladder. I hope there can be a miracle turn around however it needs to start happening soon - going into finals (if we make it) playing like we have recently will mean we get belted by any of the top 4 sides 9/10 times.

 

[jim boy]

You think he was minding space and the coach told him not to do that?

Minding space is pretty useless if the kicker of the ball to the D50 is under no pressure. Will make the defenders look like useless chumps. Obvious change by the coaches at 1/2 time to play tighter in the backline which did help somewhat. Coaches are as much, if not more, to blame for a poor game plan and a slowness to respond.
Best just to be thankful for the undeserved 2 points and move on.

 

[catempire]

They certainty do, all three have been clutch at key points in games this year. But I've never really valued finishing in on itself, some players can create something from nothing, beat the percentages by a bit, but to me nothing in more reliable than good build up play. In AFL high workrate and good skills is a pre-requisite. We have skills in spades, we're older, hurt and had a mediocre pre-season. Yet our best two wins this year came from pure gut effort. My aim would be to do what ever we can structurally to hide our work rate issues, what ever remains skill wise will be more then enough.

Yeah, don’t agree. I think we are lacking grunt through the midfield and that it hurting us both ways. Our forwards aren’t getting enough volume and quality of entries and our backs are getting exposed.

Good finishers are imperative here. I can’t see a marginal benefit by removing Henry, for example, and bringing someone in who won’t kick the goals but will do “something else”.

 

[Cattery]

That is an absolutely perfect summation re the State of affairs - Geelongs chances this year - and where they currently sit

Up to a couple of weeks ago - i thought as long we made the finals - then come Sept we could go Ten Pin Bowling and knock them all over

However currently we are an ordinary side - with dare i say too many ordinary players - or players just playing ordinary football - and the hunger has definitely gone

Im still keen for the Cats to make the finals tho

The one im really dissappointed in last night game is Holmes - and he has done that before - gone completely missing in large chunks of time in games

Mitch Hardie - if there is VFL on and he does ok again id bring him in- he will be as keen as mustard - where as several Geel players aernt at the moment

Felt much the same actually, not sure I thought we'd roll them all over and win the flag but that we could give it a real shake IF we found something like the form of last year; seems increasingly apparent now that's not going to happen unfortunately.

Like you I still want to see us make finals (and even that's not a given at the moment) but if we do the best I can see us doing is making it through to the second round "on current form" but who knows, hope springs eternal and miracles do happen.

 

[Strange Cat]

Am I alone in thinking that we look like a team that hasn’t had a consistent line up all year? I still think with a little more consistent availability at the selection table we can win it this year.

We played much better the other week with the primership backline back together

Take from that what you will

 

[Seeds]

We played much better the other week with the primership backline back together

Take from that what you will

So we should drop dangerfield? As we looked much better the week before when he didn't play.

 

[Seeds]

The Swans had a game plan for Geelong that they executed well. Play-on, move the ball through the middle whenever possible, lower the eyes to hit up leading forwards. It's the way to destroy Geelong's zone. While Geelong players were rushing to set up their zone the Swans were already slicing through the holes by utilising their unmanned players whose opponents were trying to guard space. Geelong's zone just doesn't work against teams that move the ball quickly.

We figured out how to adjust to it at the start of the last qtr. It should of happened 2 qtrs earlier. Terrible coaching by Scott. He was outcoached.

 

[Shadow89]

The inside 50 conceded and consequently Marks inside 50 conceded were directly caused by the structural imbalance, in affect we were playing 17 on 18 when we were trying to attack from D50. Having the extra tall defender robbed us of an avenue moving the ball from D50, we kept turning over the ball one kick from D50. Without Cameron and with Duncan and Smith being weak in the air, their keys had a lot less ground to cover, historically we used Blicavs, Menegola and a fit Dangerfield to be provide those extra outlets from a long D50 kick, In theory Sav should have been available to receive these bailout kicks but he underperform we when his on the offensive side of a marking contest relative to his size and athleticism and is useless when it gets brought to ground, in the cases we he would make it, he is offensively limited, which makes his kick or the next kick in the chain easier to be intercepted. All night they found space in that half distant kick hitting up a target 40 metres out, meaning we were getting burnt on the lead after a turnover.

Ultimately to win games teams can either win it back at the contest or win it back on the intercept, good teams do both. Teams that rely on interception (especially defensive marking interception) need to move the ball better than those that win it at the contest.

With the team as selected we were always going to struggle to win it at the contest, we have a too many missing/underdone. Our intercept game was non-functional for the first half on the match, in theory Sav should supercharge our intercepting being a tall athletic key defender who plays as a +1 positionally, in practice they played around him and he killed our ball movement efficiency. He was a non factor for all but a couple of desperate moments just before he was subbed off.

Beyond blaming Sav for all of our problems, we do need more from our midfield group. I want to pull Holmes out of the inside midfield rotations, he doesn't get clean use of the ball around the stoppage. He does his best work running into space and kicking long. I want us to treat him as an Issac Smith style winger. Last year his fat side running was such a difference making, he'd go from being a plus 1 in defensive to providing an outlet for a switch in a blink of an eye. They shouldn't have selected Danger, he is clearly still hampered by injury, we would have been better without him in his current condition. With O'Connor out, they may have felt that they were light on options to pull in there. We also need to get another marking option in transition, not sure if Menegola can still be that player, if he can't then give Knevitt a shot, he was starting to build form before we dumped him to the VFL, he is also getting more inside mid time at VFL level than he was previously.

Structurally, I don't like having O.Henry, Rohan and Stengle in the same team, too many high impact low possession type forwards. I'm worried that Stengle is carrying an injury, there are times early in games were he seems gassed after a quick play and O'Henry has to get move involved in general, too much tunnel vision over his finishing, our players are generally more well rounded. One of those three has to get on their bike and play a lot higher up the ground especially in the absence of Cameron.

Incredible analysis, and bang on with so much there

 

[RegHickeyStand]

Guarding space doesnt mean not having the nouse to attack the player he's closest too about to take possession of the the incoming ball.
Then blaming everyone else, which tells you they have responsibility other than space, and it wasnt his. School yard stuff.
But I get your drift, unfortunately we place more blame on the one who looks like he has no clue other than flying.
He'll get more chances, just as Bruhn will settle and come on.

That time when Sav was caught between two players inside 50. That was so easy to predict who the Swans player was going to kick it to, AFTER it happened! lol

Guarding space may work when the opposition is under extreme pressure getting the ball in. The ball was moving quickly, though. I've never liked it, but I've seen it work. I think the better the opposition's midfield you are playing, the more likely it won't work.

 

[RegHickeyStand]

We played much better the other week with the primership backline back together

Take from that what you will

Whatever backline we had, it would have been sliced up if the instruction was to guard space in that game.

 

[you pick one]

We figured out how to adjust to it at the start of the last qtr. It should of happened 2 qtrs earlier. Terrible coaching by Scott. He was outcoached.

You are spot on seeds and we should have been prepared for that at the first bounce, the Suns got us early in the year with the same tactics and few others in between it is not something new Sydney brought to the table I've thought for weeks with the injuries maybe we weren't strong enough to counter it for 4 quarters but no excuses for the sides poor performance in the first half especially Friday night.

 

[D BRIDGE]

We figured out how to adjust to it at the start of the last qtr. It should of happened 2 qtrs earlier. Terrible coaching by Scott. He was outcoached.

We absolutely took way too long to adjust.

Is it coaching, on-field leadership or a combination... Either way, it was obvious and unacceptable to take that long to address.

If they kicked straight the game would have been long gone so we were lucky to even get back in it.

 

[And_ROOS]

Would love to see Hardie get a run in the midfield. Our midfield is getting smashed and you can expect CGuthrie to return and fix everything. Although if we see Guthrie and Menegola back that's a big help.

 

[Mr Meow]

Many assumptions there.
Let's play NM
Then Bombers, although at home, this will not be a lay-down misere.
The highlighted is spot-on.

Yes, in my forecast we will indeed play NM first.

 

[bulletproof]

One thing about all the points the swans kicked, it gave them an opportunity to set up the ground very well from kick out.

It was clear at the ground we had no idea how to work our way through that. We missed Cameron badly, as the link. Rohan and Henry were 20 metres too deep from where they needed to be to provide an option.

We looked bereft of ideas to move it from defensive 50.

So if the Swans had of taken those chances, the ball goes back to middle and it is different game.

Though the Heeney miss late was probably a tad fortuitous.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

We played much better the other week with the primership backline back together

Take from that what you will

We did but we also had Stanley back which allowed Blitz to play as a mid/ relief ruck.
Also our midfield was fantastic with Bruhn and Holmes playing well and Atkins being Atkins.
We are missing Guthrie hugely and Paddy can’t take a trick so our midfield output is very inconsistent.
We need our mids to at least break even to grab the W- let’s hope we get continuity and build some cohesion soon.