List Mgmt. Gibbs - 2017 trade discussions! (Gibbs swapped for Wigg or 2nd)

[Pdub]

I think Andrew Swallow is a pretty good comparision to Gibbs. Similar age too. I am looking at how he is going now and alarm bells are going off for the Gibbs trade. Swallow has dropped off quickly as a player and has been a makeway for younger players.

I wonder if Gibbs is not far away from going through the same. If he was at a strong club his drop off may already be apparent. Its really tough to guage him as a player because at Carlton players like Kerridge and Wright look a lot better than they are.

Andrew Swallow hasn't returned to form since he snapped his Achille's.

 

[Shaz2012]

Andrew Swallow hasn't returned to form since he snapped his Achille's.

Maybe true. I could be looking for confirmation bias here, but I look around Gibbs age bracket and I dont see many that are the same players they were 5 years ago. Whether he is carrying an injury or not, Pendlebury has dropped off a lot compared to what he once was. I just feel that people talk about Gibbs like we are getting a brand new Gibbs, fresh off the production line, when in reality he has 150,000 kilometres on the clock.

 

[marty36]

to be honest ... for a number 1 draft pick ... either gibbs has been pretty shitty letdown .. OR .. carlton are just a really shitty club. probably the latter but im pretty sure knight has played better than gibbs in his first 50 games and achieved more. im telling you knight is tracking like sloane. Sloane is 10 times the player that gibbs is.

I hope your right but thats one bet I would love to have, feinetly in my favor you would want huge odds on that one

 

[Danger in Texas]

Maybe true. I could be looking for confirmation bias here, but I look around Gibbs age bracket and I dont see many that are the same players they were 5 years ago. Whether he is carrying an injury or not, Pendlebury has dropped off a lot compared to what he once was. I just feel that people talk about Gibbs like we are getting a brand new Gibbs, fresh off the production line, when in reality he has 150,000 kilometres on the clock.

Wouldn't call 29.5 disposals, 3.5 marks, 6 tackles and 6.8 clearances a game a 'drop off' at all. He's certainly performing at the same level as previous years.

 

[Shaz2012]

Wouldn't call 29.5 disposals, 3.5 marks, 6 tackles and 6.8 clearances a game a 'drop off' at all. He's certainly performing at the same level as previous years.

Stats have their limitations. I didnt say he was not a good player anymore, but not long ago he was devastating. Not anymore.

 

[marty36]

Stats have their limitations. I didnt say he was not a good player anymore, but not long ago he was devastating. Not anymore.

A players performance in most cases is determioned by team performance unless you are a freak like G Ablett.

 

[Vader]

I'm thinking your first and second for Gibbs and our third.

Assuming you blokes finished runner-up this year it would be picks at 17 and 35 with 41 coming back your way.

McGovern is every chance to seek a trade to the Eagles and if he did it would be their first rounder coming back to you. So instead of 17 and 35, you would have 16 and 41, plus Gibbs.

That's about what he was worth last year. He'll be another year closer to retirement when we do the dance again this year.

This year.. a fair deal would be Adelaide's 1st for Gibbs + Carlton's 3rd. Maybe Adelaide's 1st and 3rd for Gibbs + Carlton's 3rd.

 

[Coops93]

I think Andrew Swallow is a pretty good comparision to Gibbs. Similar age too. I am looking at how he is going now and alarm bells are going off for the Gibbs trade. Swallow has dropped off quickly as a player and has been a makeway for younger players.

I wonder if Gibbs is not far away from going through the same. If he was at a strong club his drop off may already be apparent. Its really tough to guage him as a player because at Carlton players like Kerridge and Wright look a lot better than they are.

Although Swallow is more a hard contested player who racks up contested possessions and tackles and takes a physical beating every game. A very admirable game, but not sustainable. Gibbs isn't like that at all and is a player who would be likely to continue playing well into his 30s, given he's more about reading the game and skill as opposed to aggression and physicality.

 

[Shaz2012]

Although Swallow is more a hard contested player who racks up contested possessions and tackles and takes a physical beating every game. A very admirable game, but not sustainable. Gibbs isn't like that at all and is a player who would be likely to continue playing well into his 30s, given he's more about reading the game and skill as opposed to aggression and physicality.

And Gibbs will have to make sure his speed doesnt drop off. Its impossible to say now how much his performances will drop off when he is 31, 32, 33. The club will hopefully be analyzing a wide sample of players and looking at how many of them drop off and how many of them sustain elite levels as they enter the twilight of their careers. The crows normally don't give more than one year contracts for players after 30, Eddie was the recent exception. So clearly the club also have a policy in place that reflects the risk involved with players around that age.

I would probably give him a 3 year deal, provided that we were in a position to do that and lock down our current group of players. But question of value in terms of draft picks would also need to reflect this. Gibbs will improve our 22. But not significantly in my opinion. I feel that many people are basically using the opinion that IF we got into a position where we lose a final or grand final by a goal THEN Gibbs would have changed that result in our favour. It could be true, but this is wildly speculative. I still dont think that Gibbs is the type of player that would change our end of season outcome like this. You might put Gibbs in our team for Douglas or Hampton, but they might also have been the difference on that same game. Or we might have lost with or without Gibbs.

But I do acknowledge the benefits of the Gibbs trade for AFC. But in my opinion there is more benefit to Carlton to trade him out. Your club wont win a grand final during Gibbs' career. What is the benefit of keeping Gibbs when you could be rebuilding your team. Even a 2nd round draft pick has more potential benefits to your next flag than Gibbs does.

 

[hippyhippy]

3 year deal for 30 year old? no thanks ... we didnt even do those kind of deals for our own legends, betts is an exception .. he doesnt look like he is slowing down whatsoever.

 

[Paladin]

I think Andrew Swallow is a pretty good comparision to Gibbs. Similar age too. I am looking at how he is going now and alarm bells are going off for the Gibbs trade. Swallow has dropped off quickly as a player and has been a makeway for younger players.

I wonder if Gibbs is not far away from going through the same. If he was at a strong club his drop off may already be apparent. Its really tough to guage him as a player because at Carlton players like Kerridge and Wright look a lot better than they are.

Swallow is purely an inside player.

3 year deal for 30 year old? no thanks ... we didnt even do those kind of deals for our own legends, betts is an exception .. he doesnt look like he is slowing down whatsoever.

Gibbs will be 29. 3 year deal is no problem

 

[Shaz2012]

Swallow is purely an inside player.

Gibbs will be 29. 3 year deal is no problem

Only because that contract would be for him at 29, 30 and 31. It doesn't really break the rule. Its still only 1 year into his 30s. But being only able to offer him 3 years vs 4 last year is 25% less. First rounder is stretching his worth to massive overs in my opinion. I would be keen to see how our players go this year. If Sloane, B. Crouch, M. Crouch, Hampton can match the other big midfields then I wouldn't be paying more than a 2nd rounder for Gibbs. If we are still clearly lacking then I would give up that first. If Hampton has cemented his spot in the side by picking up mid 20s possessions while still being our number 1 player for pressure acts then Gibbs wont replace him in the 22. Gibbs would be coming in for Douglas. So the question becomes, how much more would we get from Gibbs than Douglas gives us. The answer is more, but is it worth a first rounder? For those that are talking about Mackay, now we are talking about a pure outside mid/flanker. Not sure we need a specialist that costs a first rounder and takes up a chunk of the salary cap for this type of fringe 22 player. We already have Atkins, Knight, Cameron, Milera in these spots and we have decent enough half backs and forwards that can also rotate into Mackays spot.

Edit: Another point to note is that in the next couple of years, we would have Gallucci & Poholke coming into the team in Mackays spot at the very least.

 

[GrommoT]

... First rounder is stretching his worth to massive overs in my opinion. I would be keen to see how our players go this year. If Sloane, B. Crouch, M. Crouch, Hampton can match the other big midfields then I wouldn't be paying more than a 2nd rounder for Gibbs. If we are still clearly lacking then I would give up that first. If Hampton has cemented his spot in the side by picking up mid 20s possessions while still being our number 1 player for pressure acts then Gibbs wont replace him in the 22. ...

Wonder if Calton could be interested in some pick swaps - say Gibbs + Carlton 2017 1st for Crows 2017 1st + 2018 1st (plus whatever else to make things work). This might give us a chance to have a go at someone like Darcy Foggarty this year.

 

[Shaz2012]

Wonder if Calton could be interested in some pick swaps - say Gibbs + Carlton 2017 1st for Crows 2017 1st + 2018 1st (plus whatever else to make things work). This might give us a chance to have a go at someone like Darcy Foggarty this year.

Lol. Sounds good to me. I would be tempted to give up our two firsts for their first this year without Gibbs

 

[dogs105]

The Carlton list management thread is tremendous reading. Gibbs has been valued at:

Still 2 first round picks with 3rd going back

Brad Crouch and a second

Mitch McGovern and a first

2 first round picks with nothing coming back.


They are also getting Hopper, kennedy, Scully, and downie for a first and second.

 

[Banshee23]

Dangerfield (and pick 50) went for pick 9 and 28 (and Dean Gore). He was also an uncontracted free agent at the

If the dif

Dangerfield (and pick 50) went for pick 9 and 28 (and Dean Gore). He was also an uncontracted free agent at the time. Assuming pick 50 And Dean Gore cancel each other out, you got 2050 points for Dangerfield. That's equivalent in value to pick 4.

My suggestion this year was your first and second round draft picks for Gibbs and our third. Based on our current ladder positions and not including free agency or Academy selections, that's 17 and 35 for Gibbs and 41. That adds up to around 1100 points or the equivalent value to pick 15.

What's more valuable, pick 4 or pick 15? They are both 'first rounders' I guess, but you can't honestly say that's the same value.

If the difference between our 2nd and your 3rd is 6 picks, why not just trade Gibbs for the first and be done with it? Not sure there is much value in that to bother contemplating.

 

[Tyls83]

The Carlton list management thread is tremendous reading.

They are also getting Hopper, kennedy, Scully, and downie for a first and second.

They"ll get more GWS players no doubt, just not those ones

 

[moogerfooger]

They"ll get more GWS players no doubt, just not those ones

they'll get the fish John West rejects

 

[Roovolution]

The Carlton list management thread is tremendous reading. Gibbs has been valued at:

Still 2 first round picks with 3rd going back

Brad Crouch and a second

Mitch McGovern and a first

2 first round picks with nothing coming back.


They are also getting Hopper, kennedy, Scully, and downie for a first and second.

Lololololol. Maybe I've been to harsh on the Port board as delusion also exists elsewhere!

 

[Drewie11]

The Carlton list management thread is tremendous reading. Gibbs has been valued at:

Still 2 first round picks with 3rd going back

Brad Crouch and a second

Mitch McGovern and a first

2 first round picks with nothing coming back.


They are also getting Hopper, kennedy, Scully, and downie for a first and second.

Haha, I just went over for a look. It is hilarious. Some of the trade ideas are so lopsided you wonder if they are just joking. But then you keep reading and they get worse!!!

 

[earlsta]

Haha, I just went over for a look. It is hilarious. Some of the trade ideas are so lopsided you wonder if they are just joking. But then you keep reading and they get worse!!!

U think that's funny, SOS is making Carlton pay over 1million a year annually for the GWS rejects.

 

[Drewie11]

U think that's funny, SOS is making Carlton pay over 1million a year annually for the GWS rejects.

It's Guru SOS, I'm really looking forward to watching him now without multiple first round picks and Academy players. Instead of having 3 darts to throw, he now has 1!

 

[1970crow]

I've looked at Gibbs stats over 5 finals. He's definitely well below minor round averages. He's had the below. I'm not sure why he's seen as a player we need to take another step when the pressure is turned up. Given his minor round numbers he looks to respond worse to finals pressure than Mackay.

2009 elim 18 avge 27
2010 elim 15 avge 24
2011 elim 17 avge 24
2013 elim 27 avge 23
2013 semi 22 avge 23

 

[skoobydoo]

Although Swallow is more a hard contested player who racks up contested possessions and tackles and takes a physical beating every game. A very admirable game, but not sustainable. Gibbs isn't like that at all and is a player who would be likely to continue playing well into his 30s, given he's more about reading the game and skill as opposed to aggression and physicality.

Yes. Gibbs is a cruiser.

 

[Mego Red]

They have been shite, so surely they were smashed in pretty much every final he appeared in?