Gorringe, Nicholls and Smith; Who's interested and what are they worth?

[aussierulesrules]

Gorringe as everyone has said is likely to be moved on due to injuries and being behind a few other talls on our list.

I would suggest something like end of 1st round compensation pick which we've activated + Gorringe for Port's 1st round pick

So would be something like Pick 19 + Gorringe for Port's first pick...maybe around pick 9-11?

Would give the Suns pick 9-11 from Port + their first round pick maybe pick 6-8.

Would suggest that they may then be bundled together to upgrade even higher to a pick 2-4. Could be very tempting to a St Kilda or a Bulldogs club getting 2 top 10 picks in a rebuild?

Hmmm, that would be interesting. Pick 3 for picks 6/7 and 9 or 11 (GWS likely to get 10) could well be a worthwhile trade for both teams, especially if it was for for pick 6 and North had pick 5 and were committed to McDonald with that pick. I would almost certainly do that trade if that was the case, even if we had to throw something in at the other end, like a swapping of our 2nd rounders.

 

[supernova_]

Adelaide will go hard for him, we are pretty desperate in the ruck stocks, thankfully our PSD picks haven't been taken away from us yet so we will be in prime position to get him if he does want to leave and no trade sorted.

That said, none of us hopes that happens because we were pretty bitter with Tippet doing that and i'd rather work out a deal with the suns. Which means a massive complex trade is coming up with roughly 6 teams, similar to the guy who turned a paperclip into a house

Cant see many clubs wanting to deal with Adelaide this year, they have no draft currency, let alone them wanting to participate at the trade table. Only trades that will happen is probably swapping of fringe players nothing huge. Fact of the matter is Gold Coast wont want to deal with fringe players at other clubs.
So they will try to bundle things with our young talent with our reducing list to upgrade. 2 pieces of something decent for 1 solid player or pick.

 

[lemon chicken]

People are forgetting this guys has done absolutely bugger all since being on a list. "oh but he was pick 10" , well, GC had a bunch of prelisted 17 year olds and a few other bits n bobs. That included dixon, smith, Toy (who at the time was touted as a potential #1 pick), etc. So on an open market, he was worth maybe 15 at the time. At absolute most this year he is worth pick 20.

Yeah because Lobbe was absolutely killing it at AFL level by his third season.

Some stupid posts in here.

 

[Chrizzt]

Gorringe as everyone has said is likely to be moved on due to injuries and being behind a few other talls on our list.

I would suggest something like end of 1st round compensation pick which we've activated + Gorringe for Port's 1st round pick

So would be something like Pick 19 + Gorringe for Port's first pick...maybe around pick 9-11?

Would give the Suns pick 9-11 from Port + their first round pick maybe pick 6-8.

Would suggest that they may then be bundled together to upgrade even higher to a pick 2-4. Could be very tempting to a St Kilda or a Bulldogs club getting 2 top 10 picks in a rebuild?

Won't happen. We don't trade our first pick, and even if we were inclined, we'd probably be paying a little over in that deal. The guy's not in your best 22, and as is won't be in our best 22, why would we effectively rule ourselves out of the first round of the draft for that? I'm not saying he doesn't have talent, but given what he's done (or hasn't done) so far in his career, I doubt that trade would happen.

 

[Chrizzt]

Yeah because Lobbe was absolutely killing it at AFL level by his third season.

Some stupid posts in here.

How was that stupid? The difference is nobody was saying that Lobbe was worth pick 9-11 after 3 years and 13 games of showing only glimpses. Sure Lobbe seems to be coming good now, but ask most Port posters end of last year, or even start of this year, and most of us would have written him off as a lost cause. We're not in desperate need for rucks, in fact we even have Renouf posting some good numbers in the SANFL still not getting a game, so why would we trade such a high pick for someone who might not make it?
Bringing up Lobbe just shows you don't really have a clue about this conversation.

 

[lemon chicken]

How was that stupid? The difference is nobody was saying that Lobbe was worth pick 9-11 after 3 years and 13 games of showing only glimpses. Sure Lobbe seems to be coming good now, but ask most Port posters end of last year, or even start of this year, and most of us would have written him off as a lost cause. We're not in desperate need for rucks, in fact we even have Renouf posting some good numbers in the SANFL still not getting a game, so why would we trade such a high pick for someone who might not make it?
Bringing up Lobbe just shows you don't really have a clue about this conversation.

Your right ruckman are world beaters from day 1.

 

[eth-dog]

Wouldn't mind Gorringe, especially if Bellchambers leaves

 

[Chrizzt]

Your right ruckman are world beaters from day 1.

I get it, you're not overly bright, but try and keep up here champ.
Why would we pay such a high pick on such a speculative player? He hasn't shown in his performances that he's going to make. Now this isn't such a bad thing, as even someone like yourself can point out, rucks take a while to develop. But there's a reason why very few rucks are taken with high draft picks (just look to how much potential top 3 pick Grundy slid last year) and that is because they take a while to develop, and even after all those years of developing there's no sure way to know whether they'll make it. Midfielders are far far safer options, particularly those taken in the first 10-15 rounds. So we have the very good chance of having a very good mid/flanker with our first pick, or we could take the chance on Gorringe who could be anywhere from best ruck, to simply backup/depth ruck, to not even AFL standard. The risk on him is too high for a pick 9-11 considering what he's shown so far.
No one is saying he's crap, I don't mind the look of him at all, but the fact is he doesn't have runs on the board and as such shows more risk than even an untried ruck that we could pick up in the draft (who hasn't even had the opportunity to shine at AFL level).

 

[lemon chicken]

I get it, you're not overly bright, but try and keep up here champ.
Why would we pay such a high pick on such a speculative player? He hasn't shown in his performances that he's going to make. Now this isn't such a bad thing, as even someone like yourself can point out, rucks take a while to develop. But there's a reason why very few rucks are taken with high draft picks (just look to how much potential top 3 pick Grundy slid last year) and that is because they take a while to develop, and even after all those years of developing there's no sure way to know whether they'll make it. Midfielders are far far safer options, particularly those taken in the first 10-15 rounds. So we have the very good chance of having a very good mid/flanker with our first pick, or we could take the chance on Gorringe who could be anywhere from best ruck, to simply backup/depth ruck, to not even AFL standard. The risk on him is too high for a pick 9-11 considering what he's shown so far.
No one is saying he's crap, I don't mind the look of him at all, but the fact is he doesn't have runs on the board and as such shows more risk than even an untried ruck that we could pick up in the draft (who hasn't even had the opportunity to shine at AFL level).

Drafting is all a risk, doesn't matter what position they play. If a bloke is considered by a majority of U/18 watchers and recruiters to be the best ruck of his draft year then I'll take their word of the flogs of BF, yourself included.

 

[BrockBlitz]

Yeah because Lobbe was absolutely killing it at AFL level by his third season.

Some stupid posts in here.

Very, very rich coming from you.

Lobbe would have been worth pick 40-50 maybe in his third year. Absolutely tops. As you said, he'd shown nothing at AFL level and not a whole bunch at SANFL level by that stage.

 

[BrockBlitz]

Drafting is all a risk, doesn't matter what position they play. If a bloke is considered by a majority of U/18 watchers and recruiters to be the best ruck of his draft year then I'll take their word of the flogs of BF, yourself included.

From memory wasn't John Meesen the best ruck in his year ?

 

[lemon chicken]

Very, very rich coming from you.

Lobbe would have been worth pick 40-50 maybe in his third year. Absolutely tops. As you said, he'd shown nothing at AFL level and not a whole bunch at SANFL level by that stage.

So what is he worth now?

 

[Chrizzt]

Drafting is all a risk, doesn't matter what position they play. If a bloke is considered by a majority of U/18 watchers and recruiters to be the best ruck of his draft year then I'll take their word of the flogs of BF, yourself included.

Just because he was considered the best ruck of his year, doesn't mean he's worth a pick 9-11 now, especially after he's not shown that promise yet. How can you not get this concept? Would you still pay pick 4 for Tambling? Just because he was (rightfully) touted as the best ruck in his year, doesn't mean he's worth that now.

 

[Chrizzt]

So what is he worth now?

Probably a late first rounder now, and that's on the back of averaging 33.5 HOs, 11 possessions, and 6.5 tackles over the last 6 games. If Gorringe hasn't shown close to that yet, why would he be worth more?

 

[lemon chicken]

Just because he was considered the best ruck of his year, doesn't mean he's worth a pick 9-11 now, especially after he's not shown that promise yet. How can you not get this concept? Would you still pay pick 4 for Tambling? Just because he was (rightfully) touted as the best ruck in his year, doesn't mean he's worth that now.

Stop the presses, a ruckman in his third year with injury issues has not shown promise. Scott Clayton shame on you!!!

 

[lemon chicken]

Probably a late first rounder now, and that's on the back of averaging 33.5 HOs, 11 possessions, and 6.5 tackles over the last 6 games. If Gorringe hasn't shown close to that yet, why would he be worth more?

Maybe in 3 years time his stats will be better than those. Thats why.

 

[Chrizzt]

Maybe in 3 years time his stats will be better than those. Thats why.

Look, sorry if I offended you Mrs. Gorringe, I'm sure your son will be the next Polly Farmer/Dean Cox.

Maric went for pick 37, Renouf for pick 33. Josh Jenkins, a similar athletic tall who could play forward/ruck went for a swap of 31 and 41. Sam Jacobs, 34. These guys had all shown that they could at least compete at AFL level and still went for low picks. As I've mentioned before, many recruiters touted Grundy as being top 3 material based on his athleticism, ruck work, and 'potential' and he still slid to 18. Clubs don't like taking risks with high picks on rucks, because they rarely work out.

Gorringe is athletic and has a good leap, but that's about all that he's got going for him at the moment. Under 18s was 3 years ago, and in his 12 games at AFL he hasn't shown more than a few glimpses. Clubs will not pay such a price for a player. Stamp your feet and throw out as many sarcastic comments as you want, at least I'm showing logic in all my arguments.

 

[lemon chicken]

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Clubs don't like taking risks with high picks on rucks, because they rarely work out.

Since 2005 rucks taken in top 10: Ryder, Clark, Leunberger, Kreuzer, Nic Nat, McEvoy, Vickery, Longer and Gorringe. That's a pretty good strike rate there. The first 6 are great players.

Outside of the top 10 there are a fair few failures, so I guess the lesson is don't reach for ruckmen, but talented ones are worth paying top dollar for.

 

[Chrizzt]

 

[Chrizzt]

Since 2005 rucks taken in top 10: Ryder, Clark, Leunberger, Kreuzer, Nic Nat, McEvoy, Vickery, Longer and Gorringe. That's a pretty good strike rate there. The first 6 are great players.

Outside of the top 10 there are a fair few failures, so I guess the lesson is don't reach for ruckmen, but talented ones are worth paying top dollar for.

I agree, and this is kind of my point too. There will be one stand out tall in most drafts that will go as a first round ruck that someone will take a punt on, but you only need to look at the likes of Jolly, Hudson, Bellchambers, Sandilands, Griffin, Giles, Jamar, Cox, and Mumford as some of the best rucks going around, all taken in the rookie draft (or PSD for TBC maybe?).
Then you also have Jacobs, Goldstein, Maric, Redden, Warnock, and Pyke as genuine first rucks that were taken last second round or later.
Meesen, Hampson, Frasier, Pattison, Willits, Wood, even Max Bailey (though that is more injury based) are all examples of first round rucks who didn't pay off.
Of those you mentioned, Ryder, Vickery, and Gorringe are being played more as forwards pinch hitting ruck to give the first ruck a break, which only leaves a few first choice rucks taken early in the draft. I agree that if they have the talent, then they are worth their weight in gold, but there's a reason rucks often slide and that's because they are far more speculative.

Again, I'm not saying Gorringe isn't talented, I'd like to see him at Port for the right price. But the fact is he hasn't actually shown much and at pick 9-11 we have a far safer chance of recruiting a high quality, 200 game mid/flanker than Gorringe turning into a high quality, 200 game ruck.

 

[supernova_]

Won't happen. We don't trade our first pick, and even if we were inclined, we'd probably be paying a little over in that deal. The guy's not in your best 22, and as is won't be in our best 22, why would we effectively rule ourselves out of the first round of the draft for that? I'm not saying he doesn't have talent, but given what he's done (or hasn't done) so far in his career, I doubt that trade would happen.

You just move back 10 spots on the draft of the 1st round + get a pretty good ruck prospect better than what you have on your list?

Anyway, each to their own. I thought it was a reasonably fair deal.

 

[Chrizzt]

You just move back 10 spots on the draft of the 1st round + get a pretty good ruck prospect better than what you have on your list?

Anyway, each to their own. I thought it was a reasonably fair deal.

Sure, it's not a terrible deal, I'm highlighting that a) Port won't trade their first round (unless exceptional circumstances), and b) I think Gorringe' lack of results has seen a reasonable drop in his trade value.

As is, Gorringe won't be an upgrade on Lobbe, and even Redden is showing more than Gorringe, and there's only a couple of years between them. That means, almost by definition, that Gorringe is speculative. There's a chance he will surpass Lobbe and Redden, but there's a chance he won't. In the latter case, we've essentially dropped out of the first round of the draft for a backup player. There's quite a bit of difference in quality and probability of getting a 200 game player between pick 10 and 20.

Another slight piece of evidence is the fact that we took Wines over Grundy, when everyone thought we'd take Grundy. Port believe they have good rucks in Lobbe and Redden and they felt the far safer option was taking a mid. If we so badly needed that upgrade on our current stocks, we could have had it last year.

 

[supernova_]

Sure, it's not a terrible deal, I'm highlighting that a) Port won't trade their first round (unless exceptional circumstances), and b) I think Gorringe' lack of results has seen a reasonable drop in his trade value.

As is, Gorringe won't be an upgrade on Lobbe, and even Redden is showing more than Gorringe, and there's only a couple of years between them. That means, almost by definition, that Gorringe is speculative. There's a chance he will surpass Lobbe and Redden, but there's a chance he won't. In the latter case, we've essentially dropped out of the first round of the draft for a backup player. There's quite a bit of difference in quality and probability of getting a 200 game player between pick 10 and 20.

Another slight piece of evidence is the fact that we took Wines over Grundy, when everyone thought we'd take Grundy. Port believe they have good rucks in Lobbe and Redden and they felt the far safer option was taking a mid. If we so badly needed that upgrade on our current stocks, we could have had it last year.

I see where your coming from, but disagree on the bolded above. Port required a young grunt midfielder more than a ruck in their list management. I know Port Adelaide better than you think being a member and supporter for 15 years

Anyway, that aside have any suggestions for a Gorringe trade?

 

[Chrizzt]

I see where your coming from, but disagree on the bolded above. Port required a young grunt midfielder more than a ruck in their list management. I know Port Adelaide better than you think being a member and supporter for 15 years

Anyway, that aside have any suggestions for a Gorringe trade?

Not so sure about the needs last year. We had Reddo and Lobbe who were still borderline on whether they could make it, but had Boak, Ebert, Hartlett, Gray, and Broady for the engine room. Champion data had our midfield ranked 8th in the comp at the end of last year not including rucks, but our ruck division was the worst in the comp.

I think Gorringe to Port will come down to if Gorringe wants to come home, giving us the leverage. If we finish 8th we get picks 11, 29, 47 as far as I can tell. 11 is for all intents and purposes off the table, and GC will probably want more than 29 given what they paid for him. Given Renouf is from that way, maybe 29 and Renouf will get it done? Obviously won't be your best 22 ruck, but is good enough to step in as depth when an injury happens. Aaron Young is another one that has shown promise but is struggling to beat Monfries, Wingard, and Gray for that HFF/mid spot. Matt Thomas could also step in and be pretty close replacement for Brown.