Has the era of the era ended?

[Dazzler9]

West Coast have a sustainable outfit with a self-managing degree of exotic obstacle, but they are hardly unbeatable, and still have many sliding doubts to counter over coming years. Other sides will certainly have scope to win it for themselves, even remove them from the equation. But I suspect they'll need a strong footballing foundation to do it, with Brisbane, GWS and maybe Essendon the best prospects at achieving this over the next two years, beating WCE at their own game.

I'm sorry, what?

 

[Roobs321]

IMO it's more to do with a worse competition and less bolstered, much thinner lists.

Ultimately one or two injuries, a retirement, a young player not coming on as hoping is enough to see you drop down.

Meanwhile the Bulldogs and Toiges won premierships mostly through sprit and guts and a ratbag '**** off, why can't we win this?' mentality. And good on them. Good players played as they should but those borderline ones played out of their skin, because they felt valued and part of something. Good coaching to get a morale like that up and going.

I know people on here hate it, but I like an era. The Hawthorn of 2012-2016 were great to watch; ball-carriers, spreading, that sense that if one bloke has a quiet game Luke Bruest'll kick five in his absence... it's even crazy to look back on teams like the 2010-2012 Collingwood, the Geelong teams who missed out for about six years, St Kilda... you even had 'eras' of losers/making lots of prelims.

That's sort of over now. Not sure if it's a good thing.

Agreed, I've always loved an era as well, and that sense of a few teams battling over a few year period for supremacy, setting the dominant standard, makes the flag accomplishment feel more profound. I feel like that died away after 2011. 2012 marked a competitive sea change that we haven't come back from, and 2016 compounded that dislocating sense. Sydney at their best in 2014 and 2016 were supreme, but the scary sides vanished after 2011. I miss a team like St Kilda that would go out and put together a tidy 19-0 cut-above start to the season, yet have to contend with another superb side or two. To be 7th on the ladder and still feel like you can win the flag detracts a little from the narrative significance at the top.

I guess there is an ideal balance which I felt the 2000s-early 10s carried off well (the mid-00s a welcome palette cleanser). The late 2010s has been fairly chaotic, and therefore cheapening in affect, and the opposite end would be an EPL/tennis big 4 where the era of collective dominance is perpetuated over too long a period. The ideal is having usual suspects mostly hogging the top 4 over a couple year cycle.

 

[ManOfClay]

. To be 7th on the ladder and still feel like you can win the flag detracts a little from the narrative significance at the top.

History shows only one team has ever done that though. Because it is so recent there will be that feeling of “if they can, why can’t we?”

If nobody replicates that soon then that feeling will fade.

 

[Roobs321]

History shows only one team has ever done that though. Because it is so recent there will be that feeling of “if they can, why can’t we?”

If nobody replicates that soon then that feeling will fade.

Exactly, but conditions have allowed that belief to perpetuate, and define the late 2010s era. The bulldogs may have been an anomaly, but their run defined how the period felt. Maybe the press got a bit carried away with Melbourne last year, but there was still the reigning sense that the 5-8 crop could mount a challenge. Until sentiments fall back in to "you need to put in the H&A hard yards to have a reasonable opportunity and feel like you belong, probably need to lose win to win one" then that "why not" sentiment will prevail. A few regular 18-4 style sides would help get things back in perspective.

 

[zucchini]

West Coast should walk it this season. Only team capable of stopping them is GWS but I have my doubts about them. Geelong don’t have the forward line to score high enough against WCE and Richmond + Melbourne have lost the plot. Every other side is poor to ordinary and are simply making up numbers.

The only issue West Coast has is that it’s early days. You probably don’t want to be overwhelming favourites at this stage. No doubt they enjoyed flying under the radar all of last season, just as Richmond did in 2017, but for the whole season, every other side will be picking apart their game plan. It only takes one clever coach to figure you out when it matters. It has happened before and it will happen again. Probably not to WCE though. I think they’re an awesome team and the rest of the competition is generally quite weak. They should have no troubles going back to back.

So west coast only have one issue ?
It's only round 3.
School holidays post?

 

[Scotland]

The only team on track for a dynasty is WC because we are the reigning premier. You could mount a case for Richmond doing a Geelong (2018 being their 2008) but with Rance gone for the year and Riewoldt/Cotchin/Martin missing games it will be tough from a 1-2 start. But as everyone knows dynasties are something you reflect upon, not forecast. How many people in 2011 or 2012 said Hawthorn would win 2013-15? Clear 3rd best team in 2011 and 2012 was a pretty even season and finals series.

We are in the mix this year and might win this flag, the next one and the one after that. And we might not win another for 10, 15, 20 years. 10 games into 2007 we were a game clear on top of the ladder, reigning premier and had played off in the GF the year before that. Average age of 24 in the 22, 2000ish games played. Life is good. Managed to hold onto 3rd, went out in straight sets then didn't see finals again until 2011. Footy can be brutal and you need a bit of luck. We've probably only got another year or two of Josh Kennedy and Nic Naitanui who are key players.

Another big factor is the fixture. The last 3 premiers finished 6th, 13th, 8th (all pre finals) the year before winning the flag. Which teams you get when and where has an effect. This year we have Geelong at KP, Hawthorn at the G, Richmond at the G, Melbourne in Alice Springs etc. which are different to last year. A team like Port or Brisbane if they've improved enough should benefit from an easier fixture based on 2018 results.

 

[Max zero]

except there's literally no sign of anyone having any kind of dynasty post-Hawthorn. it's been a mash of teams coming and going



that was 4 years ago man

So no dynasties for 4 years and they are gone for good?

One game different and Richmond could be B2B and suddenly this post does not exist.

 

[Kwality]

WCE about to begin theirs.

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We've been close before, its not an easy ask, think the Cats in the 00s.

 

[simba_]

So no dynasties for 4 years and they are gone for good?

One game different and Richmond could be B2B and suddenly this post does not exist.

the league is just not the same any more

 

[Johnny Karate]

Between 1997 & 2018 there have been 22 flags. I use this sample size as 97 marked the beginning of Port Adelaide and the Brisbane Lions.

There has been 12 clubs to win flags. 6 of these have won multiple premierships. Of the 6 that haven’t won any, two are relatively recent additions so haven’t necessarily underachieved from a probability basis in this regard. The remaining four clubs Carlton, Fremantle, Melbourne and St Kilda have all at least contested a Grand Final and multiple prelims, St Kilda could’ve easily jagged a premiership and the others weren’t ridiculously far away.

All in all, despite there being times when clubs have been winning multiple flags, it has been a pretty even competition anyway. Eras are constructed with hindsight.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

The problem the AFL have created, is the lure of 'big games'.

Rich clubs can no longer buy success. The salary cap addressed that.

Struggling clubs no longer struggle for decades. The draft sorted that out.

The big problem now though, is that playing in big games in front of huge crowds is the biggest lure there is - even moreso than money.

And due to the AFLs trickle down economic model, only a handful of clubs get that advantage.


So to answer the question, the 'era' for clubs that don't get Blockbusters every second week is over. However for the clubs that do, they will be able to top up indefinitely with top players who want the big games in front of big crowds on the MCG.

 

[blitzer]

I'd be stunned if we didn't see another dominant team or two over the next decade that win at least 2 flags in a short period (say 3 years).
Richmond may have been able to do it last year if they had got through the prelim but they faltered.

Equalisation won't prevent a dominant team for a 3-4 year period emerging because salary cap won't stop you putting together a talented young list that is a bit undervalued (salary cap wise) but performs at a higher level onfield.

I have no idea if West Coast will be one of these teams.

 

[Duskfire]

We will get another dominant team at some point, it’s inevitable. Could be West Coast. Could be a younger team with a lot of draft picks like Brisbane or Carlton.

I do think it’s harder to keep depth players now though, and depth is quite important in some ways. It’s so easy for players to trade out now. It’s gojng to be interesting once a lot of those younger Brisbane players get more experienced, want more money, get big offers from rival Victorian clubs etc etc.

 

[The Warlord]

History shows only one team has ever done that though. Because it is so recent there will be that feeling of “if they can, why can’t we?”

If nobody replicates that soon then that feeling will fade.

Adelaide did it too in the late 90s no?

 

[HTT]

History shows only one team has ever done that though. Because it is so recent there will be that feeling of “if they can, why can’t we?”

If nobody replicates that soon then that feeling will fade.

It's pretty much already faded. The bulldogs were freakish that September. I distinctly recall having a huge spring in my step in the knowledge Richmond were top 4 in 2017, just 1 year later. The Bulldogs 2016 give a little more hope to sides in the bottom half of the 8, but only 1 out of 8 has even made it to the prelim since which is about on par across the history of the current system. That even includes Sydney 2017 who were viewed as a huge shot at a flag from 6th.
I do think the last 3 years in particular have made it feel more like H&A season form counts for nothing come finals though, as opposed to the years when there was 1 or 2 clear standouts, and then the rest.

 

[Mofra]

Adelaide did it too in the late 90s no?

From fifth from memory but that was under a different finals system.

2016 was an anomaly though as 15 wins normally gets you in the top 4, I expect the Bulldogs were the first team to ever finish that low on 15 wins. Getting 5 best 22 players back for the first final helped too.

 

[KermitJagger]

West Coast seem to be a club that could dominate for a few years yet. They have a most of their better players in a really healthy age bracket to keep winning, and they have all the signs that the Hawks and Geelong had through their success.

They're refreshing their team with younger blokes who can come and play a role, they're not losing any key pieces in the process.

Kennedy and Hurn are the two blokes on the brink of not seeing an 'era' through and even then they're not THAT old.

I honestly think the key part of a dynasty that people forget is that you need a really good run with injury and consistency in the playing group to win year after year. If West Coast don't win another premiership over the next two or three years, that'll be the reason why.

 

[The Warlord]

From fifth from memory but that was under a different finals system.

2016 was an anomaly though as 15 wins normally gets you in the top 4, I expect the Bulldogs were the first team to ever finish that low on 15 wins. Getting 5 best 22 players back for the first final helped too.

Adelaide lost first finals that should have put them out, but they "double chanced" without finishing top 4 as I recall.

The Dogs in 16 didn't lose a game in the finals - do that and you win the flag.

(Also, umpires, Toby McLean shags his Mum etc etc)

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

A lot of people getting carried away with the Eagles. I'm not certain they will go back-to-back. They are a very good side of course, but I certainly don't think they will be feared by their opposition, particularly outside of WA. The premiership race is well and truly open and up for grabs again this year.

 

[Mofra]

A lot of people getting carried away with the Eagles. I'm not certain they will go back-to-back. They are a very good side of course, but I certainly don't think they will be feared by their opposition, particularly outside of WA. The premiership race is well and truly open and up for grabs again this year.

They were 11-0 when Kennedy & Darling played together or something similarly ridiculous. I imagine like most years the injury list plays an important part in determining who challenges. We're already seen Richmond's horror injury list having a massive impact.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

They were 11-0 when Kennedy & Darling played together or something similarly ridiculous. I imagine like most years the injury list plays an important part in determining who challenges. We're already seen Richmond's horror injury list having a massive impact.

Yeah they will certainly be thereabouts and are every chance but they are certainly not feared or invincible. I imagine a VIC team will be quite confident playing them in the big dance if it pans out that way. But as you say, the health of your list plays a massive part.

 

[Plugger35]

West Coast are every chance to have a premiership dynasty similar to the Hawks, they are a good chance to finish top 2 again this year giving them a couple of home finals and they no longer struggle at the MCG due to Optus being a similar size. None of their players are that old either so they could keep this team together for at least another couple of seasons.

What about the Dogs though?

They were never really that good, even the year they won the flag they finished 7th and weren't a dominant team, they just had a dream run in that finals series aided by the umpires jumping aboard their fairytale flag bandwagon. It was no surprise to see them drop off after that, although I thought they would have at least made the finals the year after.

 

[hoylie]

I believe it’s largely due to how much the club and players want to build a legacy.

From what I saw with mainly the bulldogs but also Richmond and Collingwood 2010 to a lesser extent is that they win the flag and it’s a job done kind of attitude.

They party heavily, take extended breaks, filter in back to training later whilst the 17 other clubs are working their arses off to be better than them.

Hawthorn wanted to create something special. They enjoyed the moment for a short time and then it was back to work


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[CrowInFiji]

The AFL has long sought equalisation in the sense that any team can plausibly beat any other team on the day.

An English Premier League set up where only four or five teams can realistically win the comp, and money differences mean some teams are hugely stronger than others, is its worst nightmare.

We're seeing this come to pass in the home and away more and more every year, and the last three premiers all being different indicates that is playing through to September as well.

Crucially though, the Bulldogs dropped off after their 2016 flag, Richmond didn't go back to back and don't appear to a realistic premiership threat this year and the Eagles don't seem unbeatable this year.

Was the Hawthorn threepeat the last of the great eras?

Have all the changes the AFL brought in, especially free agency, meant that the days of one team being noticeably stronger than the others, or one team having an extended run of genuine premiership contention (North's seven prelims in a row in the 90s/00) gone for good?

And is that a good thing?

What's your expectation? That all flags come in 2s Or 3s? It isnt that common, even during your so called era of the era.

The top teams change over time, the competition is fine.

Another superteam will emerge. The dogs and tigers had nothing on the Hawks and Lions. One day we will get a superteam (could even be WCE, they are bloody good).

Go see a doctor for potential damage to your brain - and stock up on jimmies, the gene pool doesn't need further damage done to it.

 

[Damon_3388]

What about the Dogs though?

5th on percentage ATM, and probably looking the best they have since 2016.