Toast Hawthorn have headf***ed everyone

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So conversely the interstate team enjoy at the very least a 3-4 goal advantage every second week.
Absolutely they do and I think it’s why you sometimes see interstate sides get a run on into finals when they’re a bit off the pace. I remember the media taking up Freo as the second coming back in 2013. Comparing that side now on paper to the hawks, they’re barely fit to tie our teams boot laces.
 
I remember the media taking up Freo as the second coming back in 2013.

That was one of the more bizarre media narratives I have seen. I think it was primarily fuelled by hope that they would beat us more than any rational commentary.
 

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That is balanced out by the home ground advantage that interstate clubs have during season.
There are 153 possible pairing of GF opponents in an 18 team competition.
Of those with 8 interstate teams there are 28 possible pairings that are solely interstate teams.
With 10 Victorian teams there are 45 possible combinations of only victorian teams contesting in the GF.
This leaves 80 combinations where there is 1 Victoria team and 1 interstate team.

Hence the chances of randomly generating two opponents in the grand final are

Interstate/Interstate 18.3%
Victorian/Interstate 52.3%
Victorian/Victorian 29.4%

The chances of an interstate team making the grand final purely by chance is 70.6%

Since the 18 team competition, 80% of grand finals have been contested by Victorian/Interstate combination, 20% by Victorian/Victorian and 0% by an all-interstate affair.
 
Threads gone way off topic

Moderators in off-season:

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